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kfisherprotege (33.61)

Bull $treet Week #50 - Yet another bottom call

Recs

2

December 10, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: REW , SIJ , SZK

Duke Univerity's survey of business leaders outlook shows that 2/3 of 1,275 CFOs think the recession will last another year.  Their uncanny ability to predict the economic climate from their unique vantage points over the past 51 quarters is not something to go unnoticed.  So, I'm adjusting my bottom call (yet again) by seeing that year and rolling it back 9 months to April 2009.  This will coincide roughly with Obama's first 100 days, where the administration will have time to sort things out and push stimulus related legislation through the democratic controlled congress.

Until that time, I'm bearish.  I think we're in for 3-4 more months of the same whipsaw volatility and low trading volumes.  I'm either in cash or in sector UltraShort ETFs.  I may buy just a few irresistible stocks as values plays, but certainly no long-term growth stocks until April 09.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 10, 2008 at 4:17 PM, FAHayek (99.21) wrote:

It is unlikely, I am sorry to disagree, but the fundamentals are not there, if you mean not recession, like 0.2% growth, according to the BEA, than I hate to tell you that they lie. I went back over the data for last December, 2007, and said the growth rate was negative, than a year latter, they say oh, by the way, qtr 4 in 07 was negative. Inflation and real growth will have to be in negative, job losses, leverage losses, there is no way. Even stimulus will not work that fast. I am saying being of at least 2010, in terms of no artificial stimuli or fudged numbers and that is best case scenario. Obama is not god, his treasurer secretary is in the same league as Paulson and Bernake and Rubin and all the other horrible planners. Read my blog to see why they amy be ruing the recovery and sowing the seeds for the next bubble and collapse, Governmental Undulations In the Market.

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#2) On December 10, 2008 at 10:42 PM, kfisherprotege (33.61) wrote:

I rec'd your blog entry.  You make some good points on how a well-intentioned government yanking on the puppet strings of a free market is ultimately bad for the economy and our way of life as we know it.  However, I'm simply making an observation of where I think this current bear market will trough out.  Of all your points, I honed in on one: "It would take the Dow until 1954 to reach its all-time high from 1929."

If you study the Dow historical chart, you'll see that the bear market of the great depression (peak to trough) lasted from Fall 1929 thru Spring 1933.  From that point it was a 30-year bull market with all the government interventions (New Deal, etc.) thrown in.

-kfp

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