quietstone (98.78)

Long-term strategy

December 16, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: VLCCF , PPL , LVS

I do my own investing and generally attempt to mirror my own investment choices with my CAPS recommendations.

Under current market conditions I see a mixed bag in the real estate sector. Solid performers will pull through while many leveraged firms or mismanaged dogs like Luminent Mortgage (LUM) will fail.

The dry bulk shipping industry will be glutted with ships for the next few years as shipyards continue to roll out new builds despite an existing excess of ships. Oil shippers will do well in this environment thanks to the double-hull requirement limiting availability of ships and the backlog in build orders. Knightsbridge (VLCCF) and Frontline (FRO) are the stocks to watch here.

The energy sector should see some moderate upside movement in 2009 as lending rates level off and energy prices continue marching upwards at a brisk pace. Pennsylvania Power and Light (PPL) is expected to beat the industry as new capital projects finish up and price hikes push up revenues.

Media continues to be a risky play for 2009 as online content and disgruntled customers take a heavy toll on circulation numbers. News Corp. offers the strongest balance sheet to weather this storm.

Vice plays such as UBET and Monarch Resorts (MCRI) will see a downturn in 2009 as households tighten their belt and reign in discretionary spending. Gaming empires venturing into overseas markets such as Las Vegas Sands (LVS) may have even more exposure to the slowing economy as would-be gamblers shy away from expensive vacation destination.