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goldminingXpert (99.98)

Introducing gmXmkttiming

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January 05, 2009 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: SHY , SPY , QQQQ

Welcome to gmXmkttimg, my new profile which will attempt to prove that the market can be timed by picking the ultrashorts/long and stable value bond funds. By picking a stable value bond fund, i.e. SHY, you get only the return of the S&P as your score. If you outperform SHY (as you should right now--it's in gmXmrkttiming's queue for tomorrow), you score points as the S&P declines. Since the S&P will decline 20% this year, SHY should score 20 points (+ maybe a point or two of interest from SHY.) Check out gmXmkttiming's picks when they go active tomorrow morning--it's going to be a bearish bonanza.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 05, 2009 at 5:07 PM, blake303 (68.94) wrote:

You linked to tenmiles' blog.

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#2) On January 05, 2009 at 5:15 PM, Option1307 (30.93) wrote:

This will be really interesting to see in a year or so, good luck GMX!

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#3) On January 05, 2009 at 5:15 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

oops. That's a mistake. Here's the correct link: http://caps.fool.com/player/gmxmkttiming.aspx

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#4) On January 05, 2009 at 8:34 PM, falang1 (97.80) wrote:

I will keep an eye on the new profile.  Good luck.  Your 20% down bet is a short term play or over the year or do you play it as it unfolds? 

 PS, the mis-link was amusing.  I'm reading about the financial batman movie wondering what this has to do with market timing.

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#5) On January 05, 2009 at 10:25 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

End of year bet. I expect a volatile year with a range of 650 to 1000 on the S&P with a close around 725.

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#6) On January 05, 2009 at 11:24 PM, FleaBagger (99.16) wrote:

GMX -

I'm going to make the gutsy call that you will have to change your tune several times between now and then, and that you're much worse predicting one year out than you are predicting 2-4 weeks out.

You are well suited to time the market, yet you would be a hot mess trying to buy and hold.

Good luck!

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#7) On January 06, 2009 at 12:12 AM, semper77 (< 20) wrote:

Still think you're about 500 Dow points early, but better to be early to the party than late. You'll eventually do well on this.....

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#8) On January 06, 2009 at 1:32 AM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

oh, market timing is no good if I only call bear markets Fleabagger. The moment we get down to about 800, I'll flip to bullishness... for a bit... we won't go to 720 in a straight line. The end target is 720, but there will be many ups and downs along the way (for a market timer, the more the better, eh?)

I may be early still, but we're getting closer and closer. The Obamamessiah is almost here, and the bullishness on CNBC has moved from disgusting up to nauseating. I can't find a bear anywhere. Even my bear friends own calls on the market. The end of this Santa rally draws very close... 

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#9) On January 06, 2009 at 11:36 AM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

2 hours into the new gmXmkttiming, the new profile has become an all-star and has obtained the score leader on GLL (ultrashort gold). By noon, it will probably be back to the under 20 rating it attained this morning when the S&P ran up over 940.

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#10) On January 06, 2009 at 12:28 PM, BigFatBEAR (99.27) wrote:

Good luck, Ian!

I think history / econ theory is against you in your timing, but I'm hoping you crush (predict?) the market with your new portfolio. 

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#11) On January 06, 2009 at 1:27 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

Well, the point of setting up another profile is to test whether I can do it... so we will see how the theories hold up.

Sure enough, my CAPS rating dropped from 84 to 27 in two hours. Oh the joys of having a profile with a very low point total. 

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#12) On January 06, 2009 at 8:44 PM, FleaBagger (99.16) wrote:

So your new profile basically traded places with me. It's like the movie "Trading Places."

I'm very bearish, but I just don't know what the high inflation I'm expecting would do to the notional value of an S&P with plummetting real value. I'm a Schiff guy, you might say.

I still don't understand why you think Obama will refrain from inflating the currency. Did you ever blog a thesis for that?

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