OleDrippy (41.94)

Let's Get Ready To STUMBLE!!!!

January 06, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , IWN , EFA

Everyone seems to be calling the bottom.. We have been bleeding out for so long that we feel there is NO WAY we continue going down. Nothing goes down forever, right? That may be true, we've even seen a bit of a rally from the lows already.

 But wait..

Aside from the VIX and the TED spread coming down from their highs, what has really changed? Have lenders started lending? Have consumers started consuming? Perhaps in a small degree, but not anywhere close to where we were before.

I read an anylist who said investors are much like someone who lost a loved one. We are going through the various stages of grieving such as denial, anger, negotiation, depression, and acceptance. He argues that we are currently towards the end of the depression stage, which means we still have one to go. He could be right, or he could be wrong, but I would stay nimble. It wouldn't hurt to start testing the waters now, but I wouldn't get too saucy and go all in just yet. The technicians are telling us we could see another 30% down-leg from here.