GOLDOIL (95.43)

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 09, 2009 at 4:18 PM, swank9 (< 20) wrote:

Tobacco.

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#2) On February 09, 2009 at 4:53 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Take a look at MO's dividend and growth - it doesn't appear to a sustainable trend. They are also likely to be exposed to Political backlash during healthcare reforms and new taxation schemes.

PM might be a better choice if you like Tobacco stocks.

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#3) On February 09, 2009 at 6:39 PM, TMFSinchiruna (98.15) wrote:

GOLDOIL,

I have some real concerns with several of your picks. Are we talking real life portfolio or just CAPS picks for points? In my opinion, as bullish as I am about gold and silver, I would avoid the "bullion proxy" ETFs like the plague.

A,) The only bullion proxies I trust are CEF and GTU. The ETFs are crappy vehicles with far too much legalese in their prospectuses and too many questions about what happens in the event of failure the sponsoring institutions, etc. SLV actually took the trouble of removing the word bullion from their prospectus about a year ago, and never responded to my cordial letter requesting an explanation.

B.) On leveraged ETNs like UGL and AGQ, same as last comment, only times 100. Now you're dealing with derivatives, which are at the core of the world's financial woes. All exposure to derivatives of all forms must be removed from every portfolio, period, IMHO. Again, a fine idea for some easy CAPS points, but to make the point that I don't consider them safe vehicles at this stage of the global meltdown, I have removed such instruments from my CAPS portfolio (at least I think I ended them all).

I won't comment on the other sectors, since I'm sure you'll get valuable feedback from other members, but I wanted to chime in on gold and silver at least. My hope is that all Fools will cease to view the bullion ETFs and especially the leveraged, derivative-based ETNsas viable proxies... they offer NO safe haven, IMO.

All of this might seem odd coming from such a vocal gold and silver bull, but there are just so many great vehicles out there that I see no need for that type of risk. Pick a couple of the great miners, some CEF, and perhaps a smidge of royalty exposure through something like RGLD (although better entry points could be on the horizon if we get a correction after today's break below $900).

All that being said, best of luck with whatever you decide to do, and feel free to hit me up again for some thoughts if indeed these were/are real life selections.

Fool on!

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