Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

d1david (99.90)

Just a clarification

Recs

6

March 15, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: OO , PSS

Yup.. I am stuck.  I re-picked some ultra's in favor of the bulls(learn from me, don't get greedy trying to farm accuracy points.. I shouldn't have ended them and repicked them.. should have just hung on to them, so I could unload freely when I so desired)..  .  I would LOVE to close them all tomorrow as I really think that we are going to hit 765ish-770 on SPX and then head back down to at least 720 or lower..

But... since I have to hold on to these for the most of next week.. I am entering some short picks now to help hedge against massive points in the wrong direction.  I was going to wait to see if SPX goes up to 830 to fill that old gap.  So.. entering some short picks now to hedge on my bullish ultra calls going against me during crazy options expiration week.   I want to keep my 10,000 point level and not go under.

Just wanted to infom you so you don't think I am schizofrentic (spelling?) .. with major ultra's showing a bullish side and now am entering some bear picks.  Hope this will help make sense.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 15, 2009 at 9:49 PM, anchak (99.76) wrote:

Dear David.....Its schizophrenic ....and I do not think anyone would blame you for that .... CAPS 7-day hold is one of the fond remnants of a good old days - when stock used to generally go one direction - UP and not have violent gyrations.

Infact - the hedging strategy is warranted and shows much more sense - than just a naked short.

Incidentally, why do you think an 830 retrace is on the cards - and what's your time-frame?

All the best!

Report this comment
#2) On March 16, 2009 at 7:42 AM, TDRH (99.98) wrote:

Happens to the best of them.   Look for the exit, it might still open up.

Report this comment
#3) On March 16, 2009 at 10:16 PM, d1david (99.90) wrote:

anchak.. 830 is the gap in the chart from feb 13 to feb 14th.... big gaps like that usually (usually is the key word here) get filled... at that time alot of indicators got reversed.. so if we retrace to that level.. would be a logical spot to head back down.... hmmm.. time frame?  depends on how many stick saves the govt can produce and how quickly... my guess (guess again is the key word).. is that we continue to retrace down this week.. and then head up during the next couple weeks after that to the 825-830 level..  

too be honest.. that is way to far in advance for me to figure out.. i just think that we need at least one retrace back down before we can head back up.. need to burn off some of the overbought signals that recently appeared (put call ratios, etc)

----

tdrh.. thanks!

 

Report this comment
#4) On March 16, 2009 at 11:32 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

eh no worries I won't think any less of you. I've made my share of real questionable CAPSdecisions myself :)

Report this comment
#5) On March 17, 2009 at 8:22 PM, d1david (99.90) wrote:

Hey Tasty.. congrats on over 4,000 total score... I like your ever increasing caps score.. its very steady... nice work.. at that rate you will be in the top 10 in a couple of months.

Report this comment
#6) On March 17, 2009 at 11:28 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

Ha thanks david

I try to scale my bets so as to reduce the volatility in y score, but at this point i have to accufarm to get much higher and that's boring :(

Personally I think I've probably maxxed out on CAPS, you guys in top 50 are awfully good.:)

Of course I'm going to try anyway  but I think you won't have to worry about me catching up to you :)

Report this comment
#7) On March 19, 2009 at 10:24 PM, d1david (99.90) wrote:

i hear ya tasty... it seems i keep doing better... and yet... i stick at the 18-23rd spot... just a couple months ago an accuracy of 77.5 and total point score of 9,000 would easily land you in the top 10... now you need an accuracy rating of close to 90 or above with high points as well....

so whats next.. in a couple months.. the top 10 will have accuracy of 95% with total points of over 10k?  i guess we both can be thankfull to be in the top 100 and enjoy it while we can

 

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners