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jjun0366 (76.68)

Ben Graham Net Net Deep Value Stocks

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March 22, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: VVTV , ASFI , NUHC

In 1932 at the bottom of the Great Crash, Ben Graham's fund had dropped 70%, but it was precisely this time when he wrote an article on Forbes about the cheapness of the market and how the market was selling the United States for free. I feel we are close to the same situation.

Deep Value Companies

I previously wrote about how there were literally hundreds of companies that are being quoted for less than their cash in the piggy bank. One such company that I have analyzed lately is ValueVision Media Inc. These companies are being quoted in the market for much less than their liquidating value, as if they were all destined to be doomed. But does it make sense to be quoted for less than the cash in your hand?

A long time ago a president of the New York Stock Exchanges testified

"In times like these, frightened people give the United States of ours away."

Liquidating Value

Graham defined liquidating value very conservatively.

Working capital (current assets less current liabilities) then subtract any debt not included in current liabilities.

But we can be just as conservative yet at the same time find logic in a slight variant of the above formula.

The Net Net Working Capital.

Net Net Working Capital = Cash and short-term investments + (0.75 * accounts receivable) + (0.5 * inventory) - total liabilities

The formula states that;

cash and short term investments are worth 100% of its valueaccounts receivables should be taken at 75% of its stated value because some might not be collectibletake 50% off inventories, due to discounting if close outs occur The Table of Steals

Until recently, it was quite difficult to find a Net Net stock that had real prospects, but the market is washing them up ashore more and more frequently. The tide has finally gone out and here's a few that came up. Some a gems covered in mud while most a rocks covered in mud.


Price % to NNWC VVTV 15.03% ASFI 16.18% NUHC 18.14% SPF 24.57% PLI 26.28% TAIT 26.42% CRV 29.96% BZH 34.79% TBAC 35.14% TWMC 35.92% MSN 36.64% TUES 41.20% NENG 42.12% HDNG 44.40%

To run the screen yourself, go here. The top 7 are already trading at a huge 66% margin of safety.

However, these types of asset plays are not suited to everybody. There is a lot of volatility involved and there is a risk the value may never being realized by the market.

As always, due diligence is required and ever more in these situations.

Disclosure: I own VVTV at the time of this writing

[tags]ben graham, net net, VVTV,ASFI,NUHC,SPF,PLI,TAIT,CRV,BZH,TBAC,TWMC,MSN,TUES,NENG,HDNG[/tags]

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 22, 2009 at 10:56 AM, EverydayInvestor (100.00) wrote:

Liquidation is more expensive now than it used to be. Companies need to pay severance for example. Also, it is very difficult to force managements to liquidate; Considering that VVTV's book value has decreased by $60m over the last 9 months, it won't be long before their liquidation value is less than their market value (or, more likely, their market value will continue to fall).

Also, for retailers, you need to consider leases as a debt; they don't appear on the balance sheet. In a horrid economy like right now there is no way TUES for example could find many takers for its leases; I am sure it has a negative liquidation value; the same would be even more true for TWMC.

Nice article, though.

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#2) On March 22, 2009 at 1:20 PM, UltraContrarian (99.81) wrote:

The grahaminvestor.com screens aren't working for me.  Nothing shows up in any of the lists.  Maybe it is only operational while the market is open?

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#3) On March 23, 2009 at 12:32 AM, jjun0366 (76.68) wrote:

@Everyday Investor

 You are right. Off balance sheet obligations have to be considered. I checked on TUES end of last week and the price is certainly above liquidation value. I'll be releasing a free automated net net calculation spreadsheet template for my readers.

 

@ UltraContrarian,

 It seems like the screen is down for now. May have to try a little later.

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