GoodVibe4Ever (99.08)

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#1) On March 23, 2009 at 1:35 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Community Guidelines:

1. Refrain from asking me for a personalized strategy, specific stock advice or a chart. I am here to show you the way not to walk the way for you. Start learning, do your homework; and consult with your investing advisor before making any decisions. All the work I present here is for educational reasons and should not be constituted as advice to buy or sell anything. I only share what, when and how I’m trading with hopes that sharing the process adds to you. Trading and self-directed investing is not for everyone. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

2. I am a day, swing, and position trader by profession. Read my trading rules. I use Technical analysis to time my trades. Long-term investors can use most of the tools I use but will not get all the benefits as short-term investors and traders. Buy and hold forever investors will gain almost nothing from this blog but the entertainment.

3. Believe but question. Listen but speak. Trust but verify. We offer what worked for us but no one here can guarantee it will work for you the same way or at all. Test before you jump.

4. Everyone is welcome! Diversity strengthens our community and adds more value to our thinking and decisions.

5. The level of our tolerance to those who disagree with us will prove the level of our convictions. Everyone is entitled to believe and express their opinions in any form or shape including here even if they're not justified. Never respond to unfounded, irrational or unjust comments. Never ever defend me, the community we're building, or the work we do. It’s futile. Add, build, make a positive difference, or keep your peace. If you must express a grievance, please directly address whoever offended you in their blog not here. Keep this blog a place for positive and productive communication. My hope those who disagree with us treat us in the same way we treat them.

6. Recs, comments, and new members in our community are my guide to know if I am doing a good job and adding some value to you. That said; please don't rec., comment, or join unless you were getting some value from our blogs. This is not a beauty contest. Let me move on to put my energy somewhere else where I believe it's needed. Until then, Recs. are good for your karma. Comments, questions, or contributions; however, are obligations.

7. Everyone is encouraged to answer questions and provide links to questions that I may have answered in the past or they feel the confidence and knowledge to do so on their own. Please step in and either copy and paste my answer or put it in your own words. Just make sure before you comment to always explain your reasons and rationale, and provide supporting data when possible. Emotional comments and opinions are not welcomed.

8. If I missed your question, please ask again. I’ll try to answer as many questions as I can but don’t expect an immediate response. Come back later for the answer in the same blog you posted. If you would like to email me personally, this is the place (goodvibe07 - at- yahoo) but a comment here will do the same.  

9. Thanks for your thankful comments. I read them all and they cheer my heart but I'll not reply to them to save some time. That said, keep them coming!

                                   Stay positive. Winning begins within.



                                           GoodVibe Community's oath

   

"On my honor, I will never betray my integrity, my character, or the public trust. I will always have the courage to hold myself and others accountable for our actions. I will always uphold my community, and the people I serve."

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#2) On March 23, 2009 at 1:35 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

What do you think?

Online Surveys & Market Research

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#3) On March 23, 2009 at 1:37 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

I got an email, which I answered today but I thought that the answer might benefit someone else, so here it is:

Hi there again!

So I was wondering how you allocate your funds per wave. You obviously do not send it ALL out once you get the signal. I was wondering what kind of percentages you do per round and how many rounds. My other question is what other factors do you use besides the elliots wave. It seems you factor in the volume for the day and maybe the vix? And last but not least. What do you think of this guys analysis of the charts. He uses the elliots wave as well. Shouldn't he come to the same conclusion as you since you both use the same method?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiH6oHOy8vI Thanks again.

My answer:

I hope if you're following the blog lately to get answer for all your questions but I thought to give you more details here. I allocate my funds based on Fib. numbers. The initial position usually 50% of my cash, the second is another 50%, then the third is 50% more cash using margin, the last 50% approximately I use when I am WRONG and want to hit and run my open positions. I hope you read how I hedge and trade around my positions especially in case I am wrong.

So let me give you a current example. As a day trader I have 200% margin to hold overnight and another 200% for day trades that must closed on a daily basis. Let's make an example: I have equity of $1000 with my broker, then I have $4000 day-trade buying power, of which $2000 are overnight buying power ($1000 my money + $1000 margin + $2000 margin that I can use also to day trade only). When we approached 765 S&P I was -let's say- $300 long and $700 cash, I started $ 600 short positions around this number and 777. When we busted through to S&P 797 as I was keeping it on my radar as 62% Fib., I added another $600 using some of my $1000 margin, So now, I have $1200 short against $300 long with $500 margin cash. If 804 was wrong and they busted to 820, I was going to deploy the 50% last margin cash, wait for a pull back, and then close all my short positions in a hit and run knowing that I was wrong. Fortunately, I was right and we pulled back and I did not need to use my extra margin (using that last dry powder is great risk but necessary evil). Now, all my positions (old longs picked from 675 and new shorts 675 - 797) are all in the green. Now is the time to use my shorts to hedge my future long positions that I will add when we pullback to 735-720.

Also I use beside Elliott, Fib. numbers, and Gann's square of 9, many other TA indicators that I use on my live charts beside many other tools, which I will mention in details in my next class blogs. So stay tuned to those once I find time away from trading.

For the guy you mentioned, we post his stuff, thanks to Columbia1 in my blog. It's an extra way to visualize things. We must reach the same conclusion at the end. He keep his options open by presenting number of scenarios all the time. I do the same as well in my research but I have to pick the most possible one of which I'll make real trades and I present it to you.

I hope this helped!

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#4) On March 23, 2009 at 1:44 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Do you remember this chart? (Posted Feb. 18. 2009)

Enlarge Click my Quick stats tab to see current chart!

In the money with 850 points gain. TA worked even in this one. Nature's laws! :) Where I collect my money? :)

GoodVibe

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#5) On March 23, 2009 at 1:54 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

GV, thanks for noticing me in your blog, that really means a lot to me.

Thanks also for the information on the charts and I hope you have a good week to come.

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#6) On March 23, 2009 at 2:57 AM, born2fool56 (< 20) wrote:

this is the first blog i've ever gotten into. i'm 52 with 3 great kids. only one left at home, the other 2 in college. i'm a sales rep for a plumbing/heating wholesaler called Ferguson enterprises. my area of interest is working with hydronic/radiant floor heating contractors. i see that a prior post enjoys plumbing & innerflame is a mech engineer. after being in my field, i always wished i had gone into mech engineering in college, but i didn't.(got a teaching degree, which never panned out) instead, i married a teacher, who ran her own montessori school. now,  my wife is back working part time in a Christian school/daycare after being home raising our kids for the past 20 years.

we've had $ in equities for the past 15 years or so, being mostly buy & hold, trying to pick good companies. the biggest obstacle to me always seemed to be not knowing when or why to sell. so, finding this blog  has been fun and insightful &  hopefully will empower many like myself. making some sense out of it all really helps.

for fun i go golfing when the weather picks up & ride my motorcycle a little. my youngest plays fastpitch softball, so, i get to watch a lot of that right now. but, i enjoy it & she loves it! ok, i pretty much just catch up with all the comments in the evening & follow along, it sure beats watching the news. thanks to GV for your help.

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#7) On March 23, 2009 at 3:18 AM, dimitrous (< 20) wrote:

GV, thank you for the charts, and the detailed explanation of how you actually trade around your predictions.

I have perhaps a naive question, but something I've been thinking about ever since reading your hedging strategy. Why do you hold both a long and a short at the same time?

In your example, starting with 300 long and 700 cash and going into 300 long/600 short/100 cash {net 300 short, 100 cash}, wouldn't it be better (obviously not, but hence the question) to get rid of the long, and short 300 {net 300 short, 700 cash}? If you use options you are unnecessarely subjecting yourself to time value decay in the first scenario, no? 

Of course, the long gives you upside if you are wrong and the market goes up, but it is counteracted by the shorts losing value... Perhaps it depends on the sensitivities (deltas) of the actual strike prices you choose.

Looking forward to tomorrow!

: )

 

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#8) On March 23, 2009 at 3:49 AM, exotctrader (< 20) wrote:

tomorrow  should be fun

link to world markets

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html

below was at 2:42 et

sorry but i'm going long at open  :)

Hong Kong Hang Seng +567.69 +4.42% 13,401.20 3/23 3:39 pm

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#9) On March 23, 2009 at 6:52 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

GoodVibe,

You know that I do watch TA closely when choosing what to do as far as the market is concerned.  However, there are a few newsworthy events that override even TA.  Geithner is speaking on the economy today.  He will be discussing a plan to take care of toxic assets  --  again.  So, the market will probably dip in a manner that is out of any pattern  --  again.  And who could blame it?  Could even TA have factored in Obama/Geithner/Paulson and the rest?  =0

Mary

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#10) On March 23, 2009 at 6:59 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning Everybody!

Asian and European stocks are up. The charts for European stocks seem to show that a bottom has finally formed and that from now on there should be a correction up lasting a some months (touch wood).

In the meantime I'm choosing the stocks to buy on the US stock exchange using the gains I cashed selling before the bears last supper. I think to buy the following: XOM, YUM, MON, CL, SLW. What are you going to buy instead?

Regards

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#11) On March 23, 2009 at 7:12 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Mary,

I hope you are right about the market taking a dip before going up as I am short right now. But by looking at the futures, I'm afraid the market is going up.

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#12) On March 23, 2009 at 7:27 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

Mas, correct that. WAAAAAAAAAAAAY UUUUUUUUP

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#13) On March 23, 2009 at 7:31 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Yeah Preston, but I guess I think differently than people on Wall Street. I don't see anything good coming from printing all this money.

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#14) On March 23, 2009 at 7:47 AM, sommeros (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning Everybody!

 I am a foreigner and i apologize if my English is poor and it is difficult to understand sometimes.

 

I have an interesting question.

GV you wrote russwild, that to draw lines from somewher to an other point has no sense. The technical analysis has its rules.

OK. If you see your starting chart in this blog, the upper green line is the top of the channel.

Why this so called wave 4 wont go there first and than turns back. I ask this because a small bear trend was predicted after reaching 803,4 . If you see the small blue channel from 666,79 than with Friday close 768, it is perfectly suits to the lower part of this channel which is oerfectly paralel with the above blue one. So perhaps wave 4 is not over, it was a relax and we have to go up somewhere 817 before turning down. In my opinion it can happen if we are in the bearish phase. On the other hand if we reached the bottom, the wave 1 from 666-803 it follows a smaller wave 2 tapping 768 and a huge wave 3  to 883-1000.

Reading the comments before me I think the nerves of the bears getting worse and worse. Naturally it is exciting to surf, but we have to decide when to quit. It is very interesting if we do not reach 751. Today everything looks bullish. If we are topping around 784 we are out of the channel 5, are not we?

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#15) On March 23, 2009 at 8:11 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

I took my chances buying FAS on Friday, just as others took on some short positions.  From my view, the next leg down under two of the three scenerios being presented by Russ and GV were very short, especially considering the amount of daily market movement.  This morning, I'm feeling a little bad that my FAS looks to be up because I know a lot of people are in short.  Don't go in too heavy with the fun money.  Investing is a marathon, but I do agree, it's tempting not to get what you can during this volitilty.  Gaithner could very likely screw this up, but this is an example of where you HAVE to mix TA and Fundamentals. This market is NOT normal.  The Feds/Obama went from wanting things to tank to get their stimulus plan in to cheer leader and all the stops to proving that it will and getting Obama's budget passed intact. 

I do believe the market could sell on the news this week and things could go back down to the down leg, but folks, be careful, TA is an excellent tool.  I'm using it more now that GV and Russ helped me with it than I ever did, but only on select stocks.   Good luck.

(You gotta know when to hold'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, no when to run).  Anybody got a link to Kenny singing this one? It's become my trading them song while I'm waiting for the market to start behaving!

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#16) On March 23, 2009 at 8:16 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Hola,  I believe this might be a case of sell on the rumor.  I will use the jump in the market to start a short position when the market opens.    cheers

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#17) On March 23, 2009 at 8:18 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe, thanks for the game plan notes.  Here you go, TSIF!

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#18) On March 23, 2009 at 8:21 AM, Mazzart (48.31) wrote:

Good morning all...I have a question about overnight futures and how the market opens

I am sitting on FAZ from Friday at the close it was 35...I placed a stop @ 30....the futures are well below that right now. If the futures stay as they are when the market opens (currently 27) what happens?

 Does it blow right by the 30 stop and go the 27?

 Still learning

Mazz

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#19) On March 23, 2009 at 8:21 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

TSIF,

Thanks for your feelings for us that are short. You were the smart one! I just dumped all my shorts and I'm going to wait to buy long/short if we ever see any direction in this crazy market.

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#20) On March 23, 2009 at 8:23 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

Wow, Isusan!  Thanks!!!!  Much better listening to Kenny sing it than me!!! :)

Market is fragmenting...don't just watch the banks.  They aren't the only thing you can short.......Be careful with FAS/FAZ. IMHO FAS is a much safer bet to play with from time to time, especially when it is below 5.  My opinion is that if FAS is below $5 that it can only drop at most $2-3 per share if you are wrong.....but upside is stilll good.  What an FAZ do to you in a week???

Singing off to work, thanks iSusan!!!

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#21) On March 23, 2009 at 8:31 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

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#22) On March 23, 2009 at 8:48 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

Mazzart, there are several types of stops.  I will assume that you picked the easiest of these, a stop market.

A stop market generally doesn't trip in pre-market or post market...in reality, you would rarely ever want them to as pre-market and after hours volume is genearlly low and people who have a market order in instead of a limit order usually "take a bath".  It will trip as soon as the market opens if you are below your target. So in otherwords with your stop on FAZ at 30, if FAZ opens at 28 (where it's tracking right now), then you will sell as soon as it opens.  This could be dangerous and get you stopped out when you'd rather just hold. For example, if FAZ was tracking to open at 15 you might rather keep it than sell it at $15.

In this case a stop limit might be a better play. You can set stops up to trigger in between a range, but not trip if it opens or jumps your range.

You can clearly go in and cancel your Stop right now if you want.  You might do this if you think the dip down is temporary and you don't want to micro-manage or your account doesn't like for you to bounce back in and out, (poor Russ!).

The question today is whether the markets will hold the news and if it even comes out today.  They have a few days to put it out before the G5.  There was talk they were sitting on it until the AIG bonus news faded slightly.

Good luck...

Elvis, the gambler... !!!  I didn't know that one was even out there.  I don't have much good to say about GET. I think Elvis will be a generational thing........unless he shows himself!  :)

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#23) On March 23, 2009 at 8:55 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

Thanks Preston, a little flashier than Kenny and doesn't quite carry the same conviction that you are hearing the gambler first hand...Kenny looks like he's had some down times....but a little upbeat gambler when I should be chasing my tail out to my day job while I still have one is much appreciated!

Does the FED/Obama have any more Aces...???  If not, I suppose they can just print more....the ink isn't dry on some of these....the bounce this morning has no legs.....other than the VIX and people being afraid they are missing the boat again.  This, however, is getting to be quite powerful.  My plan was to hold my 401K poweder that is mostly on the sidelines until the next down leg...fear of missing out is powerful, but housing and unemployment numbers are quite sobering. Whenever, I get the urge to get back in with the 401K, I just watch the news....unemployement, Detroit, foreclosures........

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#24) On March 23, 2009 at 8:55 AM, Mazzart (48.31) wrote:

Thanks TSIF....like I said still learning

much appreciated

 Mazz

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#25) On March 23, 2009 at 9:01 AM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

GV...we especially need your help today.  Obviously Tim Geithner went and pissed on the Rubicon and with a wicked laugh, left the futures in the ozone.   What now?  Gap ups to open at/over the 'rubicon', and the bear/wave 5 scenario obliterated??... I usually close my positions daily incase of these type things, but I still kept my SDS because I was convinced the count was working on friday.  Always humble to the power of the market, and astrology of today esp. at midday is negative, but I will be glued today to see what this market action does to the liklihood of anything being able to remain bearish after a bizarre spike up like this. ??? HELP! 

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#26) On March 23, 2009 at 9:03 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

MAZZ, FAS is up 15% off the lows...but seems to be seeing some resistance around $27.50 - $28, but down the last 10 minutes on heavier volume..  The early sells around $26 were probably  newbies and daydreamers.

Normally I put little faith in premarket due to volume, but 730k shares and climbing ain't too shabby on a stock that averages 18Million per day.

FAS the first 15 minutes after the market opens will be telling on the day.

Good luck.

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#27) On March 23, 2009 at 9:11 AM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

Malibu,

S and P is up but not out of the wave as defined earlier.  You would need to see it continue higher today in order to define an end to this bear leg.  At least that is my bet.  I am going short this am but will watch close for pushing up against GVs rubicn.  m

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#28) On March 23, 2009 at 9:15 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Good morning you of little faith! :)

Nothing change! Did anything in my scenarios change yet? Nope!

There's no such thing as news trumpt TA. News are laggards to TA and always follow TA not the other way around!

Ultra ETFs are not stocks, they are options. Stopes must be put based on time, price, and volitality and not hard stops. If you don't know how to trade options, don't use them. You will be killed no matter what to do.

TSIF - Good for you! But you're celebrating a little bit early! :) You didn't even fold 'em yet and you don't need to feel bad about us shorts, we will not. And yes, we look at fundamentals! They are ugly! :) This is NEWS driven act, which you should never trust or connected to fundamentals.

All I can say, whartever you guys want to do... do not buy the open! It's up to you. At this, I'll see you after the open.

GoodVibe 

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#29) On March 23, 2009 at 9:19 AM, kushme (< 20) wrote:

Has anything funadamentally changed about the prospects of the future. Nope. Just a band-aid on a broken bone, gas on the fire, fear of missing. Evertime tweedle dee or tweedle dumb speak the market tanks, once the twin is done we should be on for the next long down leg to take us pass the previous low. we need to get done with one mroe bad quarter of earnings before we can start to think about a recovery.

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#30) On March 23, 2009 at 9:20 AM, Mazzart (48.31) wrote:

FYI....Like I said I'm learning. My gut tells me too much bad news and market is headed down eventually!! I pulled the stop off, I can always sell as I watch it unfold

 thanks for the help

Mazz

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#31) On March 23, 2009 at 9:22 AM, bubabar (< 20) wrote:

Is anyone else having trouble with "happening at the fool" on the home page all the posts on mine are from 12 hours ago. I had to go to goodvibes page to see his new post.

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#32) On March 23, 2009 at 9:27 AM, mistermiranga (< 20) wrote:

Pulled off the stops baby...gonna see this one through...

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#33) On March 23, 2009 at 9:30 AM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

No, at this point, if you are itchy, have your spouse distract you until 15 minutes after the open........:)

GV, no, I haven't booked, but I still feel sorry for any of the folks who have been sharing your blog the past few weeks who don't have milk money and are jumping to make up ground, like a gamble with an Oracle guiding them.  While you were doing the who we are, (great stuff), there was a little bit more who we are in some of the threads. I'm a very compassionate person. I do a lot for our church missions and am booking a trip to Papau New Guinea (PNG) this summer, and helping a few other people who are going if Mr. Market shines my direction.  I sense, read, feel that a few people who are near retirement or who are out of jobs are pushing too hard.   They are reading these threads, learning, but are not as patient as they should be.  TA is for trend analysis and works very well over time.  I disagree with you, (rare) in that NEWs doesn't Follow TA.  If it did you would be working on which wave is starting or ending right now.  The resistance on TA charts can be impacted by news, though that is rare.  When the government, fed, world markets, and sentiment mix, your resistance lines can be broken. In which case you are right, you will redraw, rechart, reset, and make the TA match the NEWS and say that TA followed it.

Goodvibe, don't do that to people.  You have been very honest so far. You warn that it is a tool. You clearly care about the people. You are adding great value.  BUT some people are desparate.  Yes, you warn TA is not the answer, but then you come out with a statement such as you did.  This would be great stuff if the Fed wasn't pulling wet aces out of their sleeves and people weren't so desparate not to miss upside, but this is not a normal market and deparate people are reading your blogs.

I would rather see my FAS tank than see some of your readers getting more down on life because the Oracle was mis-interpreted.

Good luck.

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#34) On March 23, 2009 at 9:32 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Guys

Sorry.  I just passed along a note from the news and went back to catch another hour of sleep.  Didn't know I started a fire storm.  I was just noting something of interest.  Geithner isn't God.  He is, if anything, a temporary note.  Buck up.  Time to get started.  Sorry.  I won't do that again.

Mary,  :-/

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#35) On March 23, 2009 at 9:41 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

No panic here on closing my shorts. I'll grab some shorts at a higher price, or if the market drops I'll start phasing into longs when the time is right!

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#36) On March 23, 2009 at 9:45 AM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

$CPC live chart is way down at 0.48!

GV,

is this still way bearish, or has something changed? 

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#37) On March 23, 2009 at 9:48 AM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

Not sure at what level the Rubicon is. Does it remain at 804 or does it fall to around 785 as per the RED trend line drawn through 943 and 803.24?

Thank you. 

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#38) On March 23, 2009 at 9:48 AM, murugan2 (< 20) wrote:

Fellow fighters,

In my opinion, what GV has said is pretty clear: there are very few numbers that matter.  804 is one of them, in this case, I will probably take my losses on my shorts and regroup.  Others are 752, 730 and 720 where I will look to possibly sell shorts for a profit.  I cannot become heartbroken over every 2% move or I will be crazy very soon.  Just my 2 cents and a warning for myself. 

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#39) On March 23, 2009 at 9:53 AM, kushme (< 20) wrote:

like GV said nothing changed. waited out the first 15 let's see what materializes still need to get back to 804

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#40) On March 23, 2009 at 9:57 AM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...sorry GV took the open to trade some things...on the short side that is!  Called sell the news. 

We have a facility now for "toxic" assets, good for banks, but better question is at what price will someone buy them at?  That's the key component in all of this.  Private capital will only get involved when there is money to be made so either the banks or the government must take a loss

Did anyone else hear CNBC this morning and Al Cashins (UBS) saying watch the 800 level bc it's the Rubicon?  I think he's a secret GV follower!

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#41) On March 23, 2009 at 10:09 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Okay TSIF - if this what do you think of me and other people here, I have nothing to say! You're always welcome.

Current 792.6

GoodVibe

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#42) On March 23, 2009 at 10:13 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Okay - who in here is part of the media?  It's okay, you're still welcome as you have always been.  ;-)  In this place, we are all friends helping each other! 

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#43) On March 23, 2009 at 10:15 AM, binve (28.36) wrote:

GV and herztical,

I am with you guys. What has changed? Nothing. Banks still suck and we are still overbought. Take a look at this

Enlarge

So here is my take. If we had consolidated down to 750 and then this rally took place, it would make me consider selling my ultrashorts. Now? Nope. 

We are still very overbought, the rally is overextended, and now this new rally takes place at the end of the overextended. S&P jumps up 3% in half an hours only to hit its head on the same resistance line? (I transcribed the Rubicon line down). This new Rubicon level is ~795. I would wait for a bounce off this line to re-short. But that seems like a good option here.

I smell overbought, and I am calling a head-fake on this rally.

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#44) On March 23, 2009 at 10:19 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

On my chart, the VIX looks like it is testing the lower trend line right now!!

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#45) On March 23, 2009 at 10:20 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Heads up - We're heading to the Rubicon

Current 797

A decisive crossing not just a jump over must be confirmed AND 804 printed to clear 666 as the bottom

BRB

GoodVibe

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#46) On March 23, 2009 at 10:27 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

All who have short positions must know that your emotions must be set in its place. Notice what do you feel right now and how doubt can effect your decisions regarding your trades. You must leave a room for moves as long as they are within the larger move. When things change, you change your plan. And you never jump the gun in and out with every move up or down. You will get hurt. Unless you're a day trader, patience is a key (with a rational). Do your analysis before you pull the trigger on either side.

Now, the market is overbought and nothing and I mean nothing no matter what they tell you that the Feds will save the day gonna change that fact. Yes, the market can stay overbought but it's only one piece of the puzzle in TA arsenal to tell us that it's tough going from this point to the bulls.

I hope this helped.

Current 797 (at the Rubicon) - I'll try to update the chart as sonn as I can. BRB

GoodVibe 

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#47) On March 23, 2009 at 10:37 AM, MrSucrose (< 20) wrote:

Everyone needs to chill no matter which side of the fence you are on.  The current volitility will make anyone with a little patience a winner.

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#48) On March 23, 2009 at 10:38 AM, amassafortune (80.81) wrote:

binve, I agree. A month ago, there was a plan for the private sector to be tapped as part of the toxic asset solution. Now, incentives are being added to the plan along with the previous guarantees. If I see strong banks jumping in to buy, that's when I'll change my plan.  

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#49) On March 23, 2009 at 10:40 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

As far as I can tell, the VIX has broke through the lower trend line. My line was approximately 44.25 and now the VIX is 43.42

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#50) On March 23, 2009 at 10:43 AM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

Columbia

Please refresh my memory on the meaning of the VIX lower trend line. 

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#51) On March 23, 2009 at 10:45 AM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...and eco you would be proud I just bought a some faz; heck if it comes back above 30 I'll be happy. For a day trade.

S&P 797

 

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#52) On March 23, 2009 at 10:50 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

Kstarich- The lower trend line was support for the VIX, breaking through could mean volatility will diminish and would be bullish.

currently 43.37

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#53) On March 23, 2009 at 10:54 AM, arboretum (30.35) wrote:

Call it what you will - resistance, Rubicon - we hit it.

Only time will tell where we go from here, but I am with GV on the down call being the most likely.

However, not sure that financials are the best short here, certainly should not be the only one. I'm thinking high-beta small and mid cap. 

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#54) On March 23, 2009 at 10:56 AM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

the market has clearly hit resistance here. It flew to this level and came to a screaching halt. Very interesting to see how this plays out today. I'd be very nervous here if I were long.

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#55) On March 23, 2009 at 11:01 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart update:

Enlarge

Current 800

GoodVibe

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#56) On March 23, 2009 at 11:22 AM, GVdrone (< 20) wrote:

should I add to my shorts, or too early?

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#57) On March 23, 2009 at 11:33 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Wave 2 800. if Rubcin doesn't fall.

Good Morning everyone. What an exciting day. Stick to your plans and don't sweet it. I will update the 5-day chart with todays action when I have a chance.

 

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#58) On March 23, 2009 at 11:39 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Anyone have a question?

Current 798

GoodVibe

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#59) On March 23, 2009 at 11:40 AM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

GVdrone -

Allow me to recommend that you take the information you get from these blogs, digest it, add to it anything you wish, and then make your own decisions.  No one here knows your financial situation or level of risk tolerance, so only you can make the right decision for you.

Cabot

What a struggle going on just south of 800...fascinating!

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#60) On March 23, 2009 at 11:44 AM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...columbia VIX lower r line was @ 40ish; if I see <39 and HOLD it then I'm in from the long side; hasn't happened yet pretty much that r line coincides with the 800+ level on the S&P.    

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#61) On March 23, 2009 at 11:44 AM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

Since we're light on questions, I'll ask one:

What constitutes a "valid" break of the line?   SPX maxed out at what...800.81?  That's higher than our oft-mentioned number of 797, but only by 0.5%.  So would that be valid or invalid?

Is there a hard and fast rule for a "valid" break?  Or is it a bit murky?

Thanks, GV!

Cabot

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#62) On March 23, 2009 at 11:45 AM, des1re (95.11) wrote:

i'm slightly confused with the current state, are we at scenario 1 right now?

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#63) On March 23, 2009 at 11:46 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

After a couple months of watching this market craziness- today's sentiment in the various blogs out there seems to be a strange moment of daisy flower demolishing- it loves me- it loves me not-it  loves me - it loves me not. I suppose this is why there is a low percentage of money makers in the stock trade. Boyfriends never worked that way either for me.

And thanks GV for putting my bio up. ( Alas- I myself am not an engineer- actually tried music first and then got a business degree so I could actually earn a living). I really enjoy how diversified this community is...

Staying steady-until I hear a 'Thar she blows"--

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#64) On March 23, 2009 at 11:46 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

GV- how much do you like salmon?

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#65) On March 23, 2009 at 11:47 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Hitting a line is quite different from crossing it. 

Being quite confident and since  I'll have to wait some days before buying my longs I think I'll study some  E W Theory in the meantime

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#66) On March 23, 2009 at 11:53 AM, des1re (95.11) wrote:

oversea where are we at then

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#67) On March 23, 2009 at 11:54 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Same question as Cabot, not clear on what defines a decisive break.  Are they the same as breakouts & breakdowns?  Oh, & how was the movie?

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#68) On March 23, 2009 at 11:55 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

ruh roh, 802.59!

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#69) On March 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Heads up -

We're heading to 804.30. I am waiting for the reaction after these levels. As always, not an advice. Just communicating what I do.

Current 802.5

GoodVibe

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#70) On March 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

If we break 804, look out. If we close over 804, short positions must be abandoned.

Come on, my little FASLINGS, can you take me higher, to a place with golden streets?

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#71) On March 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

GV

We are all watching th Rubicon as if it is a bad thing to cross.  However if we do cross is it a good thing?  meaning we will still go down but not as far to 666 and then up quicker to Bull market.  Hope that makes sense.

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#72) On March 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM, des1re (95.11) wrote:

hit 802.59

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#73) On March 23, 2009 at 11:59 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

des1re, our feet are still wet. Better to wait a little

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#74) On March 23, 2009 at 11:59 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

803.37... so ancy... at least I'll hopefully know the correct decision to make past the 804.30 mark... oh 804.13 now.

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#75) On March 23, 2009 at 11:59 AM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

I guess this is game over? 804.13

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#76) On March 23, 2009 at 12:01 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

GMX, I have an order in for FAS, too.  At 3ish.  ;)

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#77) On March 23, 2009 at 12:01 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

GV: In all your scenarios you had more of a retreat before passing 804.30 right?  So what does that mean if it passes the Rubicon without ever retreating?  Although it will be spooky if 804.13 is the end of the line for the bear rally and it's all down from here for a few days.

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#78) On March 23, 2009 at 12:02 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

We're not at any scenario yet. We back at square one as of last Thursday.

A decisive cross must retest and HOLD the broken line (the Rubicon). Without this retest and hold, it's weak and shouldn't be trusted. That doesn't mean you shorted it, it means you should not buy it.

I like Salmon a lot but I am not playing short now. Just watching the salmon jump up and down! :) and the movie was low quality.

Current 804.10 - That's fun! :)

GoodVibe

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#79) On March 23, 2009 at 12:03 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

ayekappy... without ever retreating?

I lost eight percent of my capital due to that stupid baseless drop last week, it's going to take me awhile to make up for last week's nonsense even if we do go rightfully higher like I expect.

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#80) On March 23, 2009 at 12:04 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

when you say "hold the line" do you mean that we need to close above 804?

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#81) On March 23, 2009 at 12:06 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

803.13..... What a fight!

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#82) On March 23, 2009 at 12:06 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Correction 804.13.. sorry.

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#83) On March 23, 2009 at 12:06 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Sometimes I wonder if it's not that GV is so smart, but that he really is Mr. Lucky in that he interprets the SnP pretty much like the biggest stock market people, who happen to have programs set to execute transactions at certain SnP points.  I mean, either way GV is smart obviously, but it's just like a bunch of scientists trying to cure a disease, only a few get lucky enough to cure them. 

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#84) On March 23, 2009 at 12:07 PM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...ruh roh would be 804.30+...no one said trading was easy!

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#85) On March 23, 2009 at 12:07 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Correct Lady K! Once we cross and print 804.31, the bottom is in @ 666 but that doesn't mean we will shoot to the sky non stop to S&P 900 once we print it, aye! :) I am still holding all my short positions. If we confirm 804.30, I am back to my trading around my short positions to hit it and run.

I hope this helped.

Current 802.4

GoodVibe

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#86) On March 23, 2009 at 12:08 PM, kushme (< 20) wrote:

cage has been disapponting since national treasure

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#87) On March 23, 2009 at 12:10 PM, cubswin08 (31.10) wrote:

GV,  Can't see 804 holding today.  With govt intervention coming on differernt fronts for fncls.   But I'm hanging with you.  Do appreciate the intelligent discourse you have created here.   Good to be able to read and learn!   Thanks,   Cubs

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#88) On March 23, 2009 at 12:11 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

When it breaks 804.30, what is the resistance on the way up?

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#89) On March 23, 2009 at 12:12 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

My favorite founding father (as in founders of the United States, GoodVibe) is John Adams.  One of his comments reminds me of this group. -

There are only two creatures of value on the face of the earth, those with the commitment, and those who require the commitment of others.

We are all teaching and learning as we move back and forth between having things to share or to receive.  Either way, we fit into one of those categories.  This is a good place to be.

I show S&P at 803, so I will share this which I have held til now.  It is from the character of John Adams in "1776" (the Broadway musical) and the song is composed of quotes from his letters.

Mary

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#90) On March 23, 2009 at 12:18 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

OH OH- Mary! Here's a tidbit about me. When 1776 came out in 1976- it played across dinner theatres in the US. I was at ASU at the time- minoring in music( I play flute)- And I got my first professional gig playing this show at a dinner theatre ( long gone now) in Scottsdale, AZ. I LOVED it- one of the high points in my life. - Sharon

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#91) On March 23, 2009 at 12:20 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Does any one think this might turn into a  rare, huge 10% up day for the indexes?

Looks to me like we already crossed the Rubicon, the red line at about 797 or less.

 GV, is that significant in any of the counts this close to the early down wave, or just a double top forming around 803.xx. Sure looks to me like it plans to blow through 804 this time, and end up one of those huge massive up days like we have seen before, like a 100 point rise on the SPX, 800 points up on the INDU.

GUess we all need to know where the upper resistance is if we go past 804 on the way up?

 I went ahead and sold FAZ finally and took my losses. May buy it back tuesday evening or early Wednesday if the market goes way higher today and Tuesday. Or if we bounce down from 804 and get a solid bearish run for the door I will buy the FAZ back.

 

Since I sold FAZ, we are probably heading down from here. 

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#92) On March 23, 2009 at 12:20 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Question for GV~ When you have a wave 2 close to the start of wave 1 or b to a. Does that give any insight to the future of the wave patterns? I’ve seen this happen several times since I’ve started counting. In other words do corrections lengths give us any insight to the overall motive length or corrective lengths?  

 

It truly is a market of extremes…

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#93) On March 23, 2009 at 12:21 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

I started GS put @ current GS $107. Not a Rec. Just to share the process.

802

GoodVibe

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#94) On March 23, 2009 at 12:21 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Most of the dialogue and song is from original documents of the founding fathers - history uncensored (almost)

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#95) On March 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Hint someone - GS put = up or down?  GRRR  (don't look at me that way GV -- You are too, I can tell!)

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#96) On March 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

GV- can you give a brief explaination what you mean by "started GS put@current GS $107"- for educational purposes - I don't have experience being so new at this- with puts etc. I would love to know what that reads like in newbie language.

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#97) On March 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

The rally over the last half hour seems like a blow-off top.

Enlarge

4-day 5-min chart above. Bearish divergence on MACD with higher prices. Not a good combination for a sustainable rally. All hitting its head on the main resistance line.

I am waiting to see what happens if it turns down and the reacts to the drawn resistance line. I bet we get a bounce there. If it eventually breaks below, then we have our answer to this rally.

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#98) On March 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Cubs - no one said it should, actually we're rooting for it to fall so we can eliminate the most bearish scenario and go back to business with bulding more of our long positions that we bought 717 - 675 and we sold along the way. Thanks for your knid words. This is what I hope!

GMX is here! Do we have our best indicator that the tide will turn around? :) Nice to see you bro. It's nice to see a man take a hit but stay standing. In trading, it's fine to slip but never fall. High five for GMX.

Jacaris - I believe the next resistence is 820 but it's just a guess here. No one know. This was my old spot for trading around my positions.

Eco - You might sold at the top brother! Sigh! If that makes you sleep well tonight, let it be. Live and learn. For 10% gain! I don't see it at all but who knows, my "black box" as aye hinted, might be white today. :) 

Russ - Are you having fun yet? The wave pattern will show a very possible flat pattern instead of Zig Zag. Hope this helped.

Current 803.33

GoodVibe

 

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#99) On March 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM, murugan2 (< 20) wrote:

Mary and Flame,

Puts are option trades that expect the stock to decline in value.  Right now the put to call ratio is getting very low, meaning that many more call options are being sold - many people are expecting stocks to go up.  A contrarian point of view says that when most people expect stocks to go up, they will most likely go down.  Also, when almost no one is buying puts they become very cheap.

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#100) On March 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Thx for the input Binve~

This is pretty dang exciting.... Once again the support at 804 is another "proof" of the existance of the EW count.

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#101) On March 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~GV, Yes tons of fun. As I said before, it's great to be learning with little funds, it takes the stress of things.

I see your point with the B being close to A start. You would get a more flat design. What about on the motive side 1,2... Anything to glean off that?

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#102) On March 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Can anyone tell me if the VIX is still hanging in there?

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#103) On March 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Muru! That I understood.  I cannot imagine every being in the option trades- but I find all of it so interesting. I can also see how this can be so all consuming. Reminds me of T-ball with the boys at 6-7 years old. Kind of like herding cats.

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#104) On March 23, 2009 at 12:39 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

Russ, Thanks man. Yeah, "exciting" is one word I would use for days like this... I have a few others ... :)

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#105) On March 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

Mary,

I am also a fan of John Adams.  I am also a fan of George Washington as he declined the opportunity to be king and set the stage for this great nation.

I think it would be great, since you are the librarian, to do a blog about the founding fathers.  Most people do not know how the founding fathers really did cross the Rubicon by "signing that document!" As I recall many were killed or lost everything for that act.

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#106) On March 23, 2009 at 12:44 PM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

Looks as though volume has been declining since about 11:30am.  Rally running out of steam?  Or is it just lunchtime? :)

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#107) On March 23, 2009 at 12:47 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

To add to murugan2 about puts.

 

A Put for GS while at $107 might mean GV got a $105 or $100 put in April, meaning he has the right to sell 100 shares of GS at $105.  If the put is worth $2.00 now, but if GS goes to under $105 it will gain value, so if GS goes to $80 before April 19th or whenever the 3rd Friday is, then that put could be worth $20+!

You can sell or buy puts and calls.  Personally I always buy to open puts and calls, meaning I don't have to write the contract and it limits my exposure more, it's going long on the option.  If you sell to open then it's pretty much like shorting the option. To exit the option you sell to close if you were long and buy to close if you were short, or wrote the contract.

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#108) On March 23, 2009 at 12:54 PM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

Eco, you didn't see my post # 51?

APPL is killing me today, but now overbought even on the 3 month scale; so I have to wait for a pullback to cover

GV, Shorted GS this morning (small position); hurting me a little now but I have faith 

S&P 802

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#109) On March 23, 2009 at 12:55 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

GV,

I have plenty of cash to rebuy FAZ if the 804 holds solid. I did not expect the $SPX to break out back above about 777 to 782. All the charts, and news are telling me that this market is not acting rationally, and may go much higher (irrational), A TRUE massive bear rally driven by the governments actions and manipulation.  Also the major short players may be holding off shorting here to keep the SEC and Congress from reinstating the uptick rule (something I have been pondering for days now as this rally is all emotion driven, on hope, and a lack of typical short players). THere is a serious lack of shorting going on at 804!

 I will buy right back into FAZ if 804 realy holds, but the Rubicon has been left behind already (Bullish), and all that is left is 804. THis market has made huge 10% rallies in a  day before. I did not want to get caught short while we get a serious retest of 804. If it is a second top I will then need to decide when to buy back FAZ. I am thinking it might be prudent to wait till late Tuesday, unless the market goes south quickly. I actually have my finger on the buy (Long) trigger on Natural gas (KWK) and insurance stocks (HIG) if 804.xx is soundly broken today. IF 804 is broken and we run way up out of site I may sell the longs at the end of the day.

 THis mouse is waiting patiently for the right signals. FAZ has not held up well with VIX and CPC continuing to fall while the market rebounds. 

 I might add that the banks and financials have lost 1/2 of their earlier opening gains today already, and yet  FAZ has continued to fall the last 2 hours while the broader market rose. 

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#110) On March 23, 2009 at 12:57 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Very intersting chart! Started by Sobornost and I fixed it. If you think that the market can go up further look to Tech (the clean sheets and piles of cash) where they are going with this chart? Also are you keeping the live charts on your radar.

I added also to my G.S.M short positions here.

Current 803.14

GoodVibe

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#111) On March 23, 2009 at 1:02 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

I have  a small long-term short position on GS.  Sold most of it in the 60s and 70s.  I got in about the same time as Buffet but he was long.  Your put on GS is good as gold at these levels.  m

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#112) On March 23, 2009 at 1:08 PM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

Funny, GV...I was reading the Prechter book last night, and one thing that I read was howwhen there is a triangle, the point at which the two trendlines would eventually intersect very often marks a turning point in the market.

Looking at your chart #110, the triangle of (4) appears to form its apex right above the end of wave (5) at 1262.  Pretty amazing stuff.

Cabot

P.S. Question! So, by this chart, it appears that the bottom is in on the nasdaq, then, at 1262?  Am I interpreting that correctly?

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#113) On March 23, 2009 at 1:11 PM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe thanks and funny you should bring it up,  I happen to be working on revising my chart with your fixes (thanks for help).  I notice that the 1520 high today is fits nicely according to Fibonacci percentages: see here.  Also things continue to look very overbought there on the Nasdaq.

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#114) On March 23, 2009 at 1:13 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Two new traders' gems:

1. Monday after the expiration is a hangover day. Options must be cleaned by Monday and the big guys have to unwind positions. So after a volitale Quad witch, you don't pay much to Monday, a follow up will tell you the direction for the rest of the week and guess what tomorrow is? Turn-around-Tuesday.

2. Sideways slither under resistance is churning (bearish) unlike sideways slither above support which is basing (bullish).

More trading wisdom:

* When you’re yelling you should be selling, and when you’re Crying you should be buying!

* Risk Can Be Predetermined, but Reward Is Unpredictable

* Know the Difference Between Scaling In and Adding to a Loser

* Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.

* Fast moves are born of a failed moves

* Price is the final arbiter, but TIME turns trend.

* An empty bag can't stand upright!

* The sharpest rallies occur in the context of bear market.

* The friction between opinion is where true education reside.

Hope this find you well!

Current 802.45

GoodVibe

 

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#115) On March 23, 2009 at 1:15 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Touch down!

The bottom is in @ 666!

BRB

GoodVibe

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#116) On March 23, 2009 at 1:16 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

It broke for a little!

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#117) On March 23, 2009 at 1:21 PM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

MastiffFool- The VIX bottomed @ 42.17 about an hour ago, heading up right now, currently 42.94 (opened 45.91) :)

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#118) On March 23, 2009 at 1:21 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

GV, so are you saying it's time to bail on short positions?

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#119) On March 23, 2009 at 1:22 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

HA! I went to ask a question about the sideways slithering and I answered it myself. That's a good sign.

Those were very helpful  "trader gems"-  I feel like I'm in class- and I'm actually enjoying it. Today I'm getting a test ( or pop quiz) on the twin fears - "fear of missing out" and the "fear of losing".

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#120) On March 23, 2009 at 1:23 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Well, I was in the middle of posting this 15 day chart with the options. It's a little confusing to understand, but now that we know 666 was "The bottom". We can use the green 1,2 count and the red ABC.

I would highly recommend for everyone to wait for GV's official count, to make any decisions.

Enlarge

Boy was my prodiction off.... lol Yet another lessoned learned. I think I'm going to wait for red C to conclude to get out of SDS, then SSO.

Crazy times!

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#121) On March 23, 2009 at 1:23 PM, arboretum (30.35) wrote:

So, is this a break, or is it a fake? I am thinking the latter. GV, do you really think the cat is out of the bag?

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#122) On March 23, 2009 at 1:27 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

> Game plan: (Based on a pull back from these levels. If we rally more, I'll tell what to do) All you have to watch are two things when we pull back: Support levels 766- 750 - 735 - 720 AND crossing the Rubicon (AGAIN)

Scenario 1 - 50% chance (Bulls hold 766 - 750 AND cross the Rubicon AGAIN): My short stops will click at these levels or when we cross but I'll NOT join the bulls until I see another crossing.

Scenario 2 - 49% chance (Bulls hold 735 - 720 AND cross the Rubicon): I'll start my long positions to buy and hold @ 735/720, keep ALL my short positions open with stops @ entry points. Once we re cross and confirm, I'll book my short positions and add more longs along the way and on any pullbacks.

Scenario 3 - 1% chance (Bears destroy the party, Bulls panic, and break 720): After I already started long positions @ scenario 2, I'll add more long positions @ every possible support level UNDER 700 even if the bulls get forced to head towards 666 or reach near there. In this case, my shorts are still open and I'll not close ANY of them until we reverse back decisively AND cross the Rubicon from far lower point.

Is the above clear or me dancing around the elphants while typing is effecting my communication skills? :)

Current 801.22 (Crossed and printed 805.12)

GoodVibe

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#123) On March 23, 2009 at 1:27 PM, elboxeo (< 20) wrote:

i dont want to speak for gv... but im assuming that we can still go down from these highs.... it doesnt mean we are going straight up.. its just that we will never pass 666... even that said my short posititons are in no mans land but even if drop to 750 i will be okay... but seeing as we are at800 its a bit scary but i doubt that we wont be heading back down this week...

 

 

 

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#124) On March 23, 2009 at 1:28 PM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

GV

Jacaris also questions short position now.  If I am not mistaken it appears we need to wait for correction probably tomorrow and plan to unload strategically and no one should panick!  Also make plans for new long positions.  Is this right?

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#125) On March 23, 2009 at 1:29 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

jacris - How you say that when I just told you that I shorted GS just 10 minutes ago!!!! Sigh! ~~~

Read the above #122

GoodVibe

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#126) On March 23, 2009 at 1:32 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

We shall see if I, your humble contrarian indicator strike again. However, you must know, a broken clock is right twice a day--I'm overdue. ;)

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#127) On March 23, 2009 at 1:35 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

GV, I thought that before you said that if we break the 804.30 mark it would confirm that we are going much higher. I've been trying to follow all your blogs but apparently I am confused. That's why I was asking before what the next resistance level up was.

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#128) On March 23, 2009 at 1:36 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Russ - I believe your last chart didn't only confuse a lot of people but also confused you more. LOL

Current 798

GoodVibe

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#129) On March 23, 2009 at 1:39 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

Enlarge

I still am not convinced of this rally.

Zooming out to a 10-day 30-min chart. Still looks like a blow-off top and the slower indicators (longer timeframe) are confirming the 4-day 5-min chart I posted in comment #97.

I am still watching and waiting.

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#130) On March 23, 2009 at 1:40 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Disregard last chart. It was wrong count to start off. Here is the correct chart concluding 666 as the bottom. Man did I mess up the count on the other chart. I hope GV doesn't even see it <-bow's head in shame.

 

Enlarge

***** NOTICE. ****** read at your own risk and wait for GV's correction/count

Thx

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#131) On March 23, 2009 at 1:44 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

An empty bag can't stand upright!   Not sure if I understand this one, GV...

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#132) On March 23, 2009 at 1:44 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Jacaris- I have been in your place before. Fear makes the mind very muddled. It took me awhile to read all that was going on in GV's blog with a less fearful mind.

If I can GV- what the TA is saying- is the overall trend will start back up (it needed to hold at 804) but now there will be a pullback - and at this point- somewhere near 750/735/720 where it's time to gather longs. To quote GV " the market never goes up or down in a straight line" which is why TA helps so much also. So at the pull back GV gave his view on what he would do = with his longs/shorts etc.

Did any of that make sense- or should I go back to just watching the little lines..

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#133) On March 23, 2009 at 1:48 PM, MacTrade (< 20) wrote:

Hi GV & All,

I'm back with a clear head now (clearer anyways). I'm just paper trading for my day and swing trades ( Thanks for the advice GV). I've been waiting though to get back in for my Long Term, Long positions after selling out everything at the bottom.  Is there a very high chance that there will be a pull back tommorrow?  I can follow the support and resistance/ levels. I guess I want to know peoples opinion on the timing of long term positions or does it not make much difference.  I seem to always sell low and buy in at the highs. Thanks,  Mac

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#134) On March 23, 2009 at 1:50 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

It seems patience in the numbers is the game here. We are waiting for confrimation of scenerio 1 or 2. Either one means we wait until we hit the next resistance line.. and execute our plan accordingly?

 

I am confused however.. how do I wait for scenerio 2 if my actions are triggered in scenerio 1? 

Regards,

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#135) On March 23, 2009 at 1:50 PM, RootnToot (41.23) wrote:

News flash for those who either are or are considering playing with fire, aka FAZ.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123782736557815745.html?ru=msn_money#mod=msn_money_ticker

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#136) On March 23, 2009 at 1:53 PM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

So given that this chart is now invalid since the implied blue wave (4) would enter blue wave (1) territory with the action that we've seen since March 12th, could someone (GV, Russ, someone else) please update it with the correct count?

It would be greatly appreciated!

Cabot

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#137) On March 23, 2009 at 1:59 PM, LawfordCap (99.94) wrote:

GV do you mind explaining why 804.30 was fixed and did not decrease with time as the red negative sloped line did in your chart?

Many thanks

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#138) On March 23, 2009 at 2:00 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

GV, I know I frustrate you. I'm trying to learn from you my friend! This is an education for me.

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#139) On March 23, 2009 at 2:07 PM, sommeros (< 20) wrote:

Hello GV!

Mr Geithner speech becomes in some minutes, do you think the market reaction(first is an opposite, you wrote before) will be a fake or if we are suddenly going to south that is a fake?

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#140) On March 23, 2009 at 2:09 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Yes! Jacaris. That's correct. I said and still say that if we break the 804.30 mark (we did) it would confirm that we are going much higher. Actually way higher as per my fat blue UP line on the charts. I was the only one buying when we were 666 and willing to speak up about it, so why now should I change anything now that's everyone is a bull and no sight to a single bear. :) I am playing a swing here. If few people can't see it, what should I do.  I have to say it again and again and again. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Look to any chart and it's obvious! Don't let the forrest cloud the tree. I know this stuff is new to you and this is why I am telling everybody don't try something you don't understand it. Paper trade as long as you feel comfortable calling the shots yourself.

Guys, I take your money seriously (no matter how little that is) because I want you to LEARN not to make money once or twice. Everytime we hit a bump in the road, you start to overwhelm me with doubt that I must address or you will let your emotions overwhelm you and the rest. You will lose sight of the trees and the forest. Emotion is the enemy and I know how hard to overcome it. Look to Russ! He's the perfect student, most deciplined, most patient one. He puts a lot of time studying and charting more than trading. He is trying to learn how to fish instead of rushing to trade even if he's the best so far in learning.

Your doubt doesn't effect my resolve or confidence in my trades but consume my time and energy when I have to deal with your emotions and adress them as fast as they surface especially when you put money on the line while at the same time juggle large sum of money that I call wet powder. I am confident and have plenty to offer you and I can let you lean on me as much as I well, but It started to take a toll in me physically and I have to take another approach. I have to be honest with you here. Once we get to the bottom and position ourselves back to long more than short hedges, it's time for school and no more daily charts. I will only chart weekly charts which is what swing is all about. I did the daily chart to let you see both sides and I hope I did a good job so far. Now for the last three months, you saw how the waves move and how you can deal with all situations. How you have to leave room for mistakes and how you can fix them. How to deal with your emotions (70% of the game). Now, the time is near to stop trading (which you shouldn't begin with) and start learninghow to fish.

Did this make sense and things are more clear regarding the current actions? I'll update the charts tonight!

Current 798

GoodVibe

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#141) On March 23, 2009 at 2:29 PM, jacaris (< 20) wrote:

Sorry about that. I'll refrain from asking questions and just try to study what you are saying better. I just missunderstood the short term picture. I greatly appreciate your charting.

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#142) On March 23, 2009 at 2:35 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Makes perfect sense GoodVibe!  Whatever you do, whenever it's convenient for you is great!  No expectations from us other than that you must take care of yourself first, friend.  We all have seen how incredibly generous you've been with your time & energy, and the last thing we want to do is to drain it.  You've given us a gift here, and we all deeply appreciate it.  Would you like some music?

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#143) On March 23, 2009 at 2:38 PM, gmXmkttiming (24.54) wrote:

The FAS hits a new High of Day, can my FASlings drag the rest of the market up with them? I've got my fingers crossed.

GoldminingXpert Your Humble Contrarian Indicator

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#144) On March 23, 2009 at 2:41 PM, BlueInsight (86.85) wrote:

isusan: "'An empty bag can't stand upright!'   Not sure if I understand this one, GV..."

If I may take a shot at this one...I believe it's a metaphor referring to the amount of unexpended capital you have remaining.  It refers to GV's rules regarding capital preservation.  In other words, if you don't have any money or dry powder left (empty bag), you cannot take advantage of future gains (your bag won't support it's own weight without anything in it). A sort of visualization of the principle "Opportunities are made easier than losses."  That's my interpretation anyway.

BlueInsight

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#145) On March 23, 2009 at 2:47 PM, murugan2 (< 20) wrote:

All,

Absolutely no disrespect to GV intended:  Here are a couple of other public sources for EW and TA charts, just in case you are feeling a bit panicky with GV's advisory that he needs to focus on other things and not holding all our hands.  I agree 100% that we need to learn to stand on our own feet and make our own decisions.  I appreciate everything GV has tried to do for all of us here.  I have found that for my use, some of these other charts have been helpful.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1886603&cmd=show[s155075552]&disp=O

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271030

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#146) On March 23, 2009 at 2:49 PM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

Here is a site if you want to chart your own stocks, 99% of it is real-time, streaming charts. They have all the tools available including minute charts as do the pay sites. This is by far the best free site out there. Soon you will be able to print and embed your charts, they are a newer site and are adding features every week!! (a lot better than e-trade and the others)

www.BestFreeCharts.com

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#147) On March 23, 2009 at 2:49 PM, BlueInsight (86.85) wrote:

GV,

The Taoists believe that you must take care of yourself first, so that you remain strong and healthy to help others.  You have undertaken a tremendous task and have hundreds of silent observers (like myself) whose thoughts and emotions can be a heavy burden to someone who cares so much.  Whether we make or lose money, you are illuminating valuable life lessons that extend far beyond the gyrations of a fickle marketplace.  Take comfort in knowing that we are grateful for however much (or little) you feel you need to share, and let each man/woman shoulder the burden of their own actions. 

How about some words of encouragement for our Maestro?

BlueInsight

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#148) On March 23, 2009 at 2:51 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

New high on the SPX 805.94. Gentlemen, start your engines. We have ignition.

GoldminingXpert

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#149) On March 23, 2009 at 2:51 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

An empty bag can't stand upright!'

An empty move can't stand up (or down) for long. True move assert themselves. For the last 4 trading days, we didn't go anywhere! 765 - 805

Current 806.65

My positions are the same and I am adding short selectively

GoodVibe

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#150) On March 23, 2009 at 2:55 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

Wait, why are you selectively adding short? We just blew through the rubicon. Shouldn't you be taking down shorts that are vulnerable? There's virtually no chart overhead of significance until 840 now.

GoldminingXpert

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#151) On March 23, 2009 at 2:55 PM, JibJabs (46.74) wrote:

809 holding? Jibba jibba jibba jibba.

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#152) On March 23, 2009 at 3:00 PM, jdgee2 (< 20) wrote:

I must repeat the words from isusan. Excellent points !

"...GoodVibe!  Whatever you do, whenever it's convenient for you is great!  No expectations from us other than that you must take care of yourself first, friend.  We all have seen how incredibly generous you've been with your time & energy, and the last thing we want to do is to drain it.  You've given us a gift here, and we all deeply appreciate it. "

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#153) On March 23, 2009 at 3:02 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

You don't need to be sorry Jacaris. I didn't mean to address you personally. I was talking to all of you. I went to bike ride yesterday and I felt physically miserable. The blog is consuming the little free time I had before I started and I have no time left for myself any more. So, I apologize if I came little bit frustrated. I am not. That was the plan all along. To show how it's done so when you learn, you can be patient knowing that TA works. It's not easy as I make it looks like but I believe you can get something from TA no matter how little that it's you're willing to get. Some will get it all and make bundle of money, some will get some and do well, and some will get little and protect their capital, and some will get none and that's also fine.

I have no problem with practical questions but when I have to deal with emotional questions, here I have no logical answers and I start to go around in circles. Some of you also like to doubt and ask emotional questions and try to guess instead of following the plan. I know what do you feel. I was there before and it's tough.

One day, a plan will fail! No one is perfect and it's part of trading. You can slip but never fall. If anyone thinks that we will always make gains and never have loss, they are way off.

As all of you remember the bottom @ 685 and when we broke it for only 24 hours, everybody started doubting, while I stuck to my plan. This time we did better and no body came to mock us except TSIF. :) Most of us are rational and trading as I wished them to do so. Stick to your plan! I am so proud of all of you. I just wanted to communicate to you my physical state due to overwork and what I'll do about it. I might just chose the wrong time and I apologize for that.

Please, never stop asking and learning. All will be lost if you do! All what I am trying to do will be for naught if you do. The new decision is not a new one, it's the plan in my mind all along.

Current 808

GoodVibe   

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#154) On March 23, 2009 at 3:05 PM, dcdw (< 20) wrote:

GV you remind me of the Lama surrounded by race horse, all are ready to sprint out the gate and not looking behind. The Lama was used to calm the racehorses. Thanks for your calming words and clear direction. We will learn, and eventually will have to stand on our own 2 feet. I am still trading on a watch list and learned  patience. almost let the current rally get me sucked it. I read some more past blogs and returned waiting for a non emotional entry into some long positions.

Thanks GV and all our other teachers, counselers and i thank Mary for all your encouraging words.

thanks all

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#155) On March 23, 2009 at 3:07 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

GMX - why should I cover now!? Crossing the Rubicon from 750 is different than from 805. If we pulled back first then the oversold condition would be resolved and we would have more strength to cross with strength but if we jump as we did today and use our fire power just to cross, why we should hold after we used a lot of power just to cross when we were already overbought. Old scenario 1 was based on a pull back but today's actions brought us back to square 1 as of last Thursday and the old plan must play again. Trading around my positions.

I hope this helped.

Current 808 - Where's anchak?

GoodVibe

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#156) On March 23, 2009 at 3:07 PM, maxhoffa (92.49) wrote:

good call @666

 

still not totally convinced (but still clinging to my financials at the end of trading days now anyway)  but if that is the bottom, you can take full credit for the call.

 

 

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#157) On March 23, 2009 at 3:12 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Guys--STOP!!!!  PLEASE !!!! 

GoodVibe - Go back to trading or at least turn your back on us for a few minutes and take a few deep breathes. Relax.

For everyone else - Do I know what is going on in the market? No.

Am I worried?  No.

Am I rich?  LOL No.

Do I have plenty of chances to get rich given to me by the market when I know what I am doing? Yes.

I don't have enough money to take advantage of all of the chances I will be given in this market especially.  We have a master teacher offering us major trends to follow and we panic because we are used to being spoonfed by television or textbooks.  You are bright intelligent people or you would have left this site days ago in search of easier entertainment.  You will get this.  You already know more than you did.  But you are driving yourselves and GoodVibe to distraction with your worry.  When 10 people post at the same time from ten quiet rooms, the effect is 10posts screaming GV_GV_GVGVGVGVGGV....

Any of us would go mad.  Calm and be at peace.  Let God guide you.  Read from the beginning now that we are so far in.  If the day is not clear, wait for tomorrow - Turn-around-Tuesday.  Use today, after 4 to plan and to consider what you would do if the market went up and if it went down.

What would you buy to hold for a while if it was on sale?  Is it?

what would you buy for a short time because it is way undervalued and ready to soar with the right market?  Write it down.

If the market went down, would you jump in and if so, how?  Write down what you would do and at what level you would do it.  The game plan, written in front of you, and the chart will give you something to put penciled notes on.  Today is not the only day the market is open.

GoodVibe - you can come back now.

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#158) On March 23, 2009 at 3:16 PM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

Gv

On a very positive note.  For me I am learning a lot.  I am actually doing pretty good with my trades.  I don't always follow you but I am learning the rythem of the market and feel comfortable doing what I am doing.  Aside from my FAZ trade which I am set to exit later this week I am doing great!  I did mention before that FAS and FAZ are tricky.  I will trade them again I am sure alsong with some other ETF's that I have had success with.

My stock purchases have actually done better thatn the ETF's for those people that don't think you can make as much sith stocks.  Right now I like KWK, BA, WFC, COST and even my hobby HOG

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#159) On March 23, 2009 at 3:17 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

I know my opinion isn't worth much, but believe this is just an overbought bear market and I'll not move untill the other side of the Rubicon is safely in the bulls' hands... I mean hoofs.

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#160) On March 23, 2009 at 3:18 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

I love my dear old computer, 

As Dad would say , "A day late, a dollar short"

Someday, the muffled Boom will be a shotgun right to the slow processing unit and I will be silent until I can correspond with the same speed as the rest of you youngsters!

 

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#161) On March 23, 2009 at 3:24 PM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...put it this way, even if GV is wrong on his call, why would you want to buy now at these levels anyway? Remember a thing called earnings? They still stink (some companies anyway). Does everyone laid off now have a job today? Is everyone out of debt today?

Always remember the big picture and keep things in perspective both from the short side and long side.

 

 

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#162) On March 23, 2009 at 3:27 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Perfect student...ha!

I feel like I'm starting over again with the new count. It shows me little condidence I have on my own. Fishing... heck I still trying to get the stupid worm on the hook...lol

I'm actually happy 804.3 broke for the learning opertunity, but I am sadden by the loss of people of this community. We all made our probability of what of the "count" options the future will hold. I think I was actually the wrongest in that breakdown if I remember correctly. Nonetheless, I fell no emotional termoil over it. Being IMPARTIAL to each option is key or your going to emotionally self-destruct.

GV~ Don't feel you need to defend your position. You honestly laid down the options and we all accepted risk as to our positions.

I was a big part of the daily charts as well, and we can see how hard it is to get the micro count down. but Ending wav {5} at 666 is a complete different mood change {A} and {C} waves to surf! Wahooo!!

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#163) On March 23, 2009 at 3:34 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

Mary, for comment #157. Well said!

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#164) On March 23, 2009 at 3:38 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Bear sighting report, Hot off the presses!

A herd of mauled bears were sighted today running for cover! 

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#165) On March 23, 2009 at 3:39 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Just a quick look until I finish my homework tonight:

Enlarge

Current 812

GoodVibe

 

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#166) On March 23, 2009 at 3:40 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Ok, well I won't sell my puts today but oh god is my butt hurting from switching to short from long on Friday 13th. :'(  

Maybe some of the ridiculous calls I have laying around like HIG September @ 35 and DRYS September @ 17.50 will actually be worth something soon at least!

I've learned to not ignore news about mark to market, uptick rule, Fed, and new Geithner info though!  After I just learned to ignore it.

Of course once I change my mind about how Geithner would effect the market the complete and huge opposite happens.

After all these months once I start doing some serious shorting I get completely and utterly raped, bad. :(

I knew I should have started selling off my puts once GV started to seem like he was wavering from his solid bearish stance last Wed or Thurs(warned about bullish trends etc) and also when I noticed EI the shorter was generally bullish. So stupid of me.

 Let me go cry in the fetal position in a corner now. 

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#167) On March 23, 2009 at 3:43 PM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

It seems to me that some of you may have forgotten an old friend, the VIX. This guy says that the turmoil is still on.

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#168) On March 23, 2009 at 3:45 PM, anchak (99.76) wrote:

I am here.... Been extremely busy today with work. DONE NOTHING - yes its a simple day of inaction for me.

Folks....Keep cool. Yes this is going against a lot of us  - but it doesn't need a  COMPLETE change of plans..... but it DOES WARRANT some adaptation....especially of expectations.

Facts
============

#1 Extremely overbought situation for a few days....we retraced from 805 to 766 ...but were still bullish on a lot of indicators.

#2 By doing this monster move - we are taking out a lot of energy from the markets - it'll take some time to recoup.

# 3 GV just called for a bottom at 666. Thus if you expect some falling off a cliff from here - most likely not to happen.

 Wave status from my perspective:  DIFFICULT TO CALL. A lot depends on how this goes from the next couple of days. There should be some correction - depends on the ferocity/depth.

We will/shall get a corrective 2 wave ( A-B-C) at some point....which will retrace...... S&P levels to watch - 760-750 and 740-730 . At this time - for PRUDENCE - lets assign 65% chance on 750 and 30% on 730...and about 5% below...This can happen folks....this is classic "Buy the rumor , Sell the news" - problem - if any of the parties disappoint - they'll sell like crazy.

My feelings/Emotions
===================

I am currently not looking to make any profits from this move - you can't win them all. But I am hopeful of a decent outcome still. We need to recoup.

RISKS
========

(1) It can easily go up to 825-830 from here and "fill the gap" as David (d1david) mentioned in his blog  - There's a theory which says gap ups/down days ( like today) in charts get filled eventually.

(2) If the loss of capital is humongous for you on that move - then do something - which GV says trading around positions. I am not good at this, unfortunately - hence inaction. I have a single hedge in the form of an 830 SPY call ( May) - hopefully you see the logic.But still that won't be enough to save my positions - but I do not see any reason to sell in a day like this

One doesn't know what tomorrow will bring, obviously.

 

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#169) On March 23, 2009 at 3:45 PM, fmede (89.48) wrote:

GV, I have to admit that I am frustated for missing all this rally over the past weeks and, to make things worse, being on the opposite side of the thing and losing big.... I lost big but it is my fault only. I am very sad actually and with the sensation that I just missed a big opportunity because now I am with little dry powder to even take advantage of what is to come...

However, I do appreciate and understand your efforts. Each person here is responsible for his/her own money and decisions. Your effort to teach is legitimate and I should only thank you for that.

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#170) On March 23, 2009 at 3:47 PM, Sobornost (< 20) wrote:

Wasn't the original plan to hold the long positions bought 666-717 and hedge them with shorts at an anticipated pullback?  If this was followed, you should still be net positive.  In my case, I sold them too early, but still have gained tremendous valuable knowledge through the experience of seeing with my own eyes WHY that was a great plan in the first place.

We're looking pretty overbought still, I am still leaning towards adding more shorts.  I can't wait to get back into my longs though when a good opportunity comes again!  No rush though, the next set should roll in in due time.

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#171) On March 23, 2009 at 3:48 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Annotation correction for the chart above - (1) Red should read (A) and the blue box should read ... we should NOT assume we're...

Thanks!

Current 816.70 

GoodVibe

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#172) On March 23, 2009 at 3:54 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

I wish this day would hurry up and end so that this irrational frenzy will end. And hopefully tomorrow the bulls will come to their senses!

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#173) On March 23, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

You all do what you want to, this fool got out of his shorts before he took another 20% loss today (FAZ) at about 784, and I went long and hour ago at about 794 on the pull back on stocks that had not rallied much yet as their fundametals were holding them back (BDI and Natural Gas spot price, but that has just changed). I don't see any signs this is heading south before going a lot higher, till maybe Wednesday. Like I alluded to hours ago, this is looking like a 10% up day on the indexes. May not get that high, but they are already up over 6% and heading for the ceiling. Not sure why 804 can not become a new major down resistance for a week or longer rally now  and go back up to the 800 plus level.

 

In case I am wrong I am still 75% cash. 

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#174) On March 23, 2009 at 3:56 PM, arboretum (30.35) wrote:

ayekappy: I too was stopped out of all my shorts today. Damage wasn't too bad, but could have gained a lot of upside today that I missed out on.

Got to say, I still don't really trust this rally in the long term, but I'm not going to try to swim upstream any longer.

GV, you may sincerely believe that news does not affect the market but I think there's a lot of empirical evidence that it does. My take on this is that there are different kinds of news. The "fake" news when the Fed announces stuff like rate cuts that everyone knew was on the cards and there's a brief spike - that doesn't affect the market for more than a few minutes. What I call "real" news is news that indicates something happening that wasn't known before, like the Government announcing they will print money and end proper accounting last week, then another giveaway this week - this does have an impact that lasts for days. However I do see that in the end much of it might be reversed. 

Ultimately though some news has to affect the market. Just look at Sep 11 & Sep 12, 2001.

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#175) On March 23, 2009 at 3:56 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Well at least volume is really low right?  That should  be bearish to some extent? :(

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#176) On March 23, 2009 at 3:58 PM, bostoncelitcs (68.67) wrote:

Can you say "Military-Industrial Complex"?!! 

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#177) On March 23, 2009 at 3:58 PM, amassafortune (80.81) wrote:

I'm still holding a good chunk of SRS for the pullback. 666 is established and knowing that justifies a few % of upside, but some of today's volume is short covering that will not be there tomorrow. Q1 will still have net negative earnings and over the next couple days, investors will think about how much they want to pay for companies that will still have declining sales and earnings for another two quarters. The 200K families added to the unemployment rolls last week are just starting their severe spending cutbacks this week. There is time to review your plan and take corrective action, if needed.  

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#178) On March 23, 2009 at 3:59 PM, Helgaki (< 20) wrote:

, Mary953

 

you expressed my sentiments better then I could have done myself.

 

GV 

please take care of yourself and thank you

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#179) On March 23, 2009 at 4:01 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

Typo edit: I meant "and SPX go back up to the 900 plus level. FAZ is getting hammered to a brand new all time low  today!

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#180) On March 23, 2009 at 4:15 PM, bothisellhigher (51.64) wrote:

 GV, Russ, anyone...this bear is shot but before I panic and close out SDS now (at over 15% loss-puke) it would be better to stay the course of the plan and wait for a reaction to (if I'm reading the last chart correctly) 770 and then close out (at much less of a loss) my bear SDS position?  Correct?  Please say yes!

And...GMX ...(Oh Great one who stood by himself in proclaiming the market was going up "now"...praise, praise...)...I think what GV means by #149 "adding short selectively" is that he is going to play the reaction back to 770 ish and then take profits...And I hope he is right on, cause that would mean I get to cut my losses quite a bit (as per above)...now... if I can only find a surgeon to reattach the fingers I chewed off today...set the broken ankles from kicking the walls...and ease the concussion from beating my head in the same areas I broke my ankles...things should be ok...I'm going to go read science fiction for awhile!

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#181) On March 23, 2009 at 4:22 PM, akt91493 (97.45) wrote:

That was a monster rally! Unfortunately, I decided to end my 6 month career as a trader. Made some bad decisions and am now down 10 grand. I guess it was a interesting rollercoaster ride. I am not worried about anything though. I'm 15, and hopefully, still got a lot of time to screw up and/or succeed. Wish me luck in my future endeavors. Cheers.

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#182) On March 23, 2009 at 4:32 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

akt91493 -

You ARE kidding, right??  Please tell me you are paper trading.

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#183) On March 23, 2009 at 4:33 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~Both 

822.9 close... ouch! Snap of the 804.3 being broke IMHO. We have to establish a top to wave 1 here and enter wave 2 land. Zig-Zag or flat. From our history you can't call the exact top or bottom. I was planning on a stop at 815 originally, but am going to hold the corse for wave 2 to sell. In wave 2 land I will Sell SDS and get into SSO for a longer hold wave 3. Not advice, just my current plan as of now. I'm real interested to get a count update tonight from GV. I will make corrections to my plan as I see it.

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#184) On March 23, 2009 at 4:33 PM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

bothisellhigher ,

As someone mentioned above, I am wondering if the previous resistance level of 804 will now be a support level. Maybe GV or Russ will comment on this when they have time.

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#185) On March 23, 2009 at 4:39 PM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

...ouch from the short side today! Probably my worst trading day yet this year (or very close anyway).

Stopped out on most shorts (GS/AAPL/FAZ included) and my longs didn't rally like the rest of the market only up 1-2% or so that really killed me.

Time to regroup and look for the next opportunity.  Like I said, no one said this was easy!

 

 

 

 

 

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#186) On March 23, 2009 at 5:06 PM, jimmybroderick (32.79) wrote:

WOW! 

 

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#187) On March 23, 2009 at 5:07 PM, cubswin08 (31.10) wrote:

Open for anyone to comment....FAZ has been destroyed over the past few sessions.   Anyone seeing an opportunity here?  If so why or when?   I am long FAZ in CAPS- and just fell from grace.  :(     Cubs

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#188) On March 23, 2009 at 5:10 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

akt: If you had 10k to trade at age 15, I think you'll be okay.  At least you learned a lot of important lessons very early on.

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#189) On March 23, 2009 at 5:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

None of my scenarios played out! Also my worst possible scenario for being wrong is the one that actually played out. It doesn't feel good but it's part of life. In hindsight, I could play this bottom I called for much better if I didn't over trade, but heck, looking back is not the way to move forward. I already made nice amount of money with all that beating of late to my short positions in the current swing. I could make more if I didn’t underestimate the wave up but all in all since March 9th, I am a happy camper.I hope all of you are happy with your overall performance/learning and if not I wish that your first trade is your worst.

In a hindsight, every thing seems easy to know. Again for the news, I really don’t care. When we pull back, they will find some piece of news to say it was the reason. I am not trying to convince you of anything or put a lipstick on that pig at hand. I am just telling you what I trade based on and I will not change it now after all the news I saw in my life that didn't effect the market an iota. This wave seem to be tough to call because as I said many times, wave fives are the hardest to predict and that doesn't mean that the rest are easy. :) They are just less harder.

The strength of this wave was only the power of making the bottom and the strong hands (big banks) are moving in again into equities embolden with the money they fleeced tax payers through TARP and ING hedges of late that made them profitable and have extra powder to come back to the game. Do they say this in the news? No! Only the chart tells you that this is true. If you like to trade based on news, good luck, I hold you not! :)

Now, let's concentrate on our positions. From where I read, we have here four camps.

1. Those who are all long - GMX and TSIF: We congratulate them for their gains. We will just say that nothing go up or down in a straight line. Taking some chips off the table is never bad idea. 

2. Those who are long but over weight shorts (me and anchak): They have some losses on their shorts but their longs are doing well and pull back will save the day for the short positions or they have to take some losses if necessary.

3. Those who are long and have equal shorts (?): They have gains and will recover most if not all of their short losses when we get the pull back especially if they shorted from higher levels. It all depends on their own positions. Ihope they did well balancing the act.

4. Those who are short and have no hedges in place (?): Those are the most vulnerable depending on their entry point. If they have gains from the last long play, they can think of their future loses (if any) as a sacrifice to their previous gain. If they didn't participate before in gains and that was their first trade, they must assess their situation and break even or even take a loss if necessary when we pull back.

One more thing all of you must understood by now if you didn't before and I kept saying it over and over. Ultra ETFs are not for everyone. If you never traded options, you should never trade them. They are not stocks! Don’t let the gain cloud your vision to the risk of options and if you decide to trade then you have to expect 20 to 50% loss if your bet is wrong. Many of us including anchak, hertz, binve, and Columbia tried to tell you these are not for everyone. Start with SPY or even paper trade so all your loss will be 5 or 10%. Yes, your gain will be also 5 or 10% but until you get confident of what you’re doing, it’s not wise doing it.

Again, this is not an advice, all I can hope for you is that you live and learn. This is the price every trader has to pay first to get to know one of two things: Trading is for them or not for them. They can go from there and adjust their timeframe, risk tolerance, etc. to match their decisions. Never compare yourself to others!

I hope this added some value to your thinking and as usual I hope this find you well. See you tonight.

GoodVibe

PS. I would like to respond to TSIF if he was just a little bit impersonal in his comments but after I read his comments again, everyone for his own. He is putting things in what we do here that doesn't exist and I hope he reads his comments again to see where is his rational coming from? Best wishes and gains in your future, TSIF! We never shy fron criticism, we actually ask for it as long as it has merit but irrational words like that from a friend was not the best we wanted to hear today. Still you always welcome!

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#190) On March 23, 2009 at 5:17 PM, maxhoffa (92.49) wrote:

financials have put a lot of beer in my fridge the past few weeks.

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#191) On March 23, 2009 at 5:17 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

akt -

Quitters never win and winners never quit! Live and learn but never quit! Come tell us what did you do. This is your first post here and we could be more happy to share our thoughts if you came earlier. No regret - let us start again. Waiting for your reply.

GoodVibe

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#192) On March 23, 2009 at 5:32 PM, tsoang (< 20) wrote:

Guys, for those who took the short position, please listen. I know it's hard for us to be calm and not be emotional about it and try to follow our game plan. My entry point was 750 and I'm probably one of the biggest losers here but I haven't said a thing about it here. I continue follow the game plan and fight, which is to wait for the correction to come and close out, even if it means taking a loss. Please do not quit just because of a set back along your journey. 

Please watch the video below. Hopefully, in time you won't need these speeches because you learn not to be attached emotionally to begin with. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uASVzkrEKgs

best wishes, 

-tsoang 

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#193) On March 23, 2009 at 5:40 PM, RootnToot (41.23) wrote:

I believe that what we witnessed today was the 'audacity of hope'! Sorry, I couldn't resist!! ;-)>

But seriously, what has really changed in the economy? From where I sit the numbers don't look any better to me. What goes up must come down.

Root

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#194) On March 23, 2009 at 5:42 PM, fmede (89.48) wrote:

GV, I know you do not like to recommend specific stocks or ETFs, etc... However, I was wondering if you could exempllify how you have traded lately using specific stocks, ETFs and options that you used. The plan is not to copy this (as it has passed anyway) but to try to incorporate to my learning process. I would like to specifically be able to know what you bought at day X to try to understand why and what made you buy Z after that according to the maket movement. Not sure if what I am asking is too much... If you do not like to disclose a full position, perhaps you can just make up the number of shares...

Thank you

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#195) On March 23, 2009 at 6:00 PM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

One thing that I notice is that everyone was/is fixated on this "Rubicon" line.  Yet no one seems to be mentioning the upper line of the channel that began in early November at 1007.51 (the upper green line in the chart at the top of this thread).  Even GV seems to draw his blue dotted lines as though this resistance line doesn't exist.

Why is that?  Is the green channel not significant?  Because to my newbie untrained eye, it sure looks signifcant -- both pretty wide and pretty long.  And if it is signficant, then we're just a few percentage points away from the channel line (or trend line -- I'm not sure which is which), right?  And wouldn't that be a better time to go short from a risk/reward perspective?

And for the EW masters, is there no wave count that allows for a possibility that 666 is not the bottom?  Because if that green channel were to continue, then 666 wouldn't be the bottom, right?

Any and all comments more than welcome.  I love this blog. :)

Cabot

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#196) On March 23, 2009 at 6:08 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

GV,

Looking back over your charting, I'm still struck by the accuracy of the $SPX chart from 26-Feb-2009 that shows a run up to 950. The i, ii you've been looking for is also part of that projection.

Financials still have at least 2 more positive news releases to come, changes to the accounting rules related to Mark-to-Market, the Uptick rule rewrite, and the introduction of the plan announced today. These are likely to drive financials and the markets higher.

One of the other key factors I'm seeing relates to all the 401k rebalancing that moved investments into Stable Growth and Bond funds last year. As the markets move higher (perception that the bottom is in and the rally has started), rebalancing is likely to also drive equities higher.

The one problem I have with the 666.79 bottom is the lack of a solid retest (2nd leg down) and the formation of the classic "W" that typically signals a true bottom. Maybe this isn't always necessary, I would be interested to hear you thoughts.

Best,

IIcx 

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#197) On March 23, 2009 at 6:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Thanks everybody who made sense of today's actions. I thank you all for adding value to this community and welcome you as brothers and sisters. Blueinsight, sobornost, anchak, binve, Lady K, Susan, MacTrade, tsoang, herzt, Mary, Helga, amass, and many more. Not that the rest didn't make sense. Just those who come on the top of my mind right now, I'll go back and read from the beginning. I am sorry if I forgot someone! :)

We stay together we survive and thrive. Now time for dinner! Chicken anybody?

GoodVibe

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#198) On March 23, 2009 at 6:19 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I made sense of today's actions when I actually paid attention to news that mattered, I knew M2M changes would make a big short term change and I ignored that ish, unfortunately I was stuck in cult mode and got bf'd.  Starting tomorrow I am just going with my instincts.

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#199) On March 23, 2009 at 6:20 PM, FAHayek (99.21) wrote:

Hey, I think If you look at this trend the resistance line is switched to the support at least for the next few weeks. Granted It will eventually reverse back, but it seems to me as if the movement is going to be held by a lower limit of 765 but mostly it should be pretty flat according to the StochRSI winding up to look like a plateau for April. Not sure if it will play out this way though. Also, it looks like FAZ might bottom out soon, with FAS maxing out reaching almost it's 2 month high.

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#200) On March 23, 2009 at 6:22 PM, rofgile (88.29) wrote:

For everyone that is still saying.. "what has changed..? why should things be any better now than two weeks ago.." - I would recommend adding additional information into your calculations of where we are at.

One really nice blog to read is gne1963's, he has a separate website also called the "Good News Economist".  Right now we've been having a media + CAPS all just presenting the news/perspective on things in a very one sided manner.  At the same time, there is always change in the world.  In particular, home sales of new and now resales are up.  Retailers have been doing better than expected (as in better than complete failure and death).

Now we have Geitner with a plan, don't know if it is a good plan, but at least the rules are now fixed on what our government will be doing.  Some banks have said that they might actually turn a profit for the first quarter.  There is a ton of money in treasuries and on the side lines that could go back into the market.  Unemployment still rises still look bad, but the rate could change for the better in the next months.  

I've firmly believed that the market has been oversold since it fell below 800 S&P, now we are getting back into the 800-870 range.  Why couldn't it stay in this range now for a couple of months, leading into the second half of the year going back into 900-1000 S&P range?  

What I am arguing is that, A) things have been changing but B) the media and CAPS has not caught up with the positive changes or weighed those in.  Meanwhile, the market will weigh those positive notes in.

 -Rof 

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#201) On March 23, 2009 at 6:23 PM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

Through most of today, the S&P 500 has remained near or above 800, which is 20 percent above its March lows.

As we have  closed above these levels, today will be the FIFTH 90 percent updside day we have seen this month, following similar days on March 10th, 12th, 17th, and 18th.

This is the best showing we have had since the bear market began over a year and a half ago.

Most importantly, the rallies have come on HIGHER VOLUME.

Also bear in mind that we are coming up against the end of a quarter where many professionals are WAY underexposed to the market.

Still, most market participants are cautious, or remain bearish. In the cautious camp are traders like Dan Greenhaus at Miller Tabak, who noted that  "In order to be in line with historical precedents, I have to believe that further lateral trading lies ahead even if such trading is at higher levels than those in which we currently find ourselves."

In the Bear camp, consider this comment from Lowry, the oldest technical analyst service, in a note to investors this morning:

"While there are aspects to this rally that look more promising than any other rally during the past 21 months, the probabilities drawn from our 76 year history still warn of a limited recovery attempt lasting as much as several months, followed by eventual new lows for the broad market."

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#202) On March 23, 2009 at 6:27 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

fmede -

the last time someone asked that question and was given a complete breakdown by GV, it was possibly complete.  I have no idea.  It was so very complicated that I had no idea whatsoever of what he had done.  Have you ever watched someone demonstrate how easy it is to con a cashier into giving you way more change than you should have by continually adding an extra bill (change for this also, please) or subtracting (let me give you this instead) and doing it all at the same time?  It is like that.  He does several things at once.

Only now, he does several things at once AND answers all our questions as well.

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#203) On March 23, 2009 at 6:29 PM, Tutom (< 20) wrote:

I don't think we witnessed the "Audacity of Hope," but rather the power of the crossing of the Rubicon on automatic trading programs at institutions and funds and a lot of short covering. GV wasn't the only one with the number (804) on the radar. And, 804 might prove to be a forminable point of support on the way down as the same institutions buy on the dips. 

I'd probably put myself in GV's category 3--equal longs and shorts, but with 25% cash. I'll hold on to my longs unless they gap up tomorrow, in which case I will sell half. I bought some TZA just before close. My plan is to sell TZA around 805 and sell an equal amount of SDS (bought at S&P 760) for a wash, and, at the same time, increase my positions in longs. If the market drops more, then I'll wait for the 780 area to get rid of the rest of my SDS for a loss, and pick up some more longs. And, of course, save some cash in case we have another chance at 750 or 735 etc. 

I'm certainly no expert, just trying learn like all of you. I would just like to go on record here to help me stick to my plan. If you think I'm a way off, please let me know. 

 

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#204) On March 23, 2009 at 6:30 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

GV, I did NOT mean you or TA any bad will.  Yes, I'm up today, I was up last week on financials and got stopped out of them well ahead.  My longs and my ETF's did well today.  Starting from November to mid-January I was up 10%.  From Mid-January to early March I went down 20% from peak, 10% from start. Now I am up 10% again from start. I am walking my stops. I will not see another 20% drop again.  I have learned and changed my plan.  Only about 10% of my powder is in 3X ETF's.  I do not go to the credit card machine and take out more when I lose it. I am careful with what I have in 3X ETF's, hence I played with FAS NOT FAZ.   So what am I really?  Besides a stubborn long who didn't put my stops in place in January, but learning from this,   Am I?

1. Up 30% from early March? (in last two weeks).

2.  Up 10% from early November?  (from start point).

3. Up ZERO percent from January (back where I was)?

Yes to all three.  It depends on your point in time and whether it's my wife asking or my accountant!  :)

This is a dance.  It is not a perfectly scripted Waltz.  We step on toes. TA is not a Waltz in beautiful lines, but it is a Waltz when you step back from the board and look at a larger picture. You are very clear, nothing moves straight up or straight down. 1,2,3,4,5, dip your partner - No.

You are very honest with your TA, what you are doing and the risk. I respect you very much.  I am using some TA more now for individual stocks. 

You are feeling stressed when things go poorly and you are making yourself tired, even when things are going well. My point was not to dispair you or TA. My point was the same as you have been making.  The turns on the curves do not respect us. The waves are difficult to call the turns.  You are very clear. Your audience, however, is partially deaf and I was repeating what you have been saying.  Do not make yourself sick. Do not shoulder all responsibility.

What I am concerned with is that you know the fifth wave is hardest to call.  BUT you do not think news can drive it.  The fifth wave, if I have learned anything from your teachings, is difficult to call.  But why is that?  I think it is  because the "people" play the biggest factor.  They are beaten down and bruised. They don't want to lose more, but they don't want to miss a turn up and gain back some of their loses. The government does not play by any rules. They wanted the markets down to pass the stimulus, they want the markets up to show it is working and to get the budget passed.  They change their tune and statements.

What they really want is to devalue the dollar and cause inflation.  This will cut the value of the new money supply they are printing.  Oil is dollar based, so it will rise.  These are fundamentals that must be considered in the short legs.

I think you are doing a great job warning people, but my concern and bluntness was because I do NOT think that you know your audience, nor should you be expected to. You know that half a dozen are very knowledgeable. Many others are learning and patient.  Others, however, are desparate.  They do not interpret, because they do not understand. They are hoping someone can direct them.  The study of TA is wonderful and you are doing very well, but some of the students are in lower grades and not listening.  I have seen this in their questions and comments in your wonderful blogs.

Akt91493 at 15 you have much to learn, and should be commended on trying. Please think about INVESTING and looking long.  The market has us being traders, we are forgetting how to invest. Study Buffett for a few months, make your calls on paper. Some people will make huge sums of money making calls in this volitile market, but at 15 you have the greatest opportunity, perhaps of your lifetime, by learning TA and using it on gentler slopes, investing long, buying the best.

GV, I am sorry brother.  The market has no respect.  Some of your students have no patience and little money.   Please do not give up on those studying TA.  Please do not over tire yourself or blame yourself. I think you would be excellent in the old style 2-room classrooms that we had in the US not many years ago. You could teach the advance students and the beginers in two separate rooms.  All would learn, but beginers would not be testing the hardest bulls in the rodeo.   It is a dance.   I am sorry if I stepped on your toes, but don't think that you are responsible if people don't listen to the warnings that you so clearly give in their desire to achieve back losses they have had.  There are many skirmishes in a war, you do not need to win them all, but you cannot use all your powder when the terrain is not your friend and better skirmishes come your way, (1776 Mary).

I grew up in a four room house, I have known poverty and I have known gamblers. Gambling is what many are doing in the market. I am hoping they will learn TA and be investors.  I hope if you are still mad at me for my comments that you at least understand that I do not discourage TA and I believe you have been clear with warnings, but I think you miss some of your audience because you are trying so hard.  To suggest that NEWS cannot affect TA and cause the markets to break through resistance levels, I will disagree with as I think that directly relates to 5th waves. But I am respectful of your opinion.  In most cases breaking resistance on news will backfill and if the "traders" did not go in too deep they will be fine as you outlined. Some, however, are not listening to you.

You are clear that you have to crawl before you can walk, and walk before you can dance, and not all will be good dancers, but all can dance a little bit. 

Thank you for giving me permission to post again.  I do value you, and I have a heart for the students in the wrong classroom as I know you do as well. 

TSIF 

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#205) On March 23, 2009 at 6:35 PM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

I made back about half of last week's OPEX disaster and lightened up at the close. Can't try to make back all of a terrible trade at once. I'm still long but I'm a lot lighter in the position than yesterday. I'd be really surprised if we get past 840 without a significant retrace. I'm sorry to hear none of your charts played out GV. I know what when I'm wrong, I at least like to have had the wrong outcome on my predictive radar so I could at least have seen it coming. Days like today can be the most frustrating. Particularly Goldman Sucks today... that was quite a launch job at the close.

GoldminingXpert 

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#206) On March 23, 2009 at 6:48 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

GoodVibe -

For you to remember -

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#207) On March 23, 2009 at 6:56 PM, firehog5 (73.62) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Dw3KiauKA&feature=related

For everyone who went short on Friday...did you catch the number on that train?

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#208) On March 23, 2009 at 7:06 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

$S&P 500 Index (10yr)

(values and dates are approximate)

From the 08/01/2000 high of 1,525, the markets ran down to a double bottom close of 815 on 09/02/2002; -710 points over 25 months. 

2002-2003 Double bottom; duration 5 months:

09/02/2002  closed at 815

11/1/2002 run up to close at 936

02/02.2003 ran down to retest a close at 841 and put in the double bottom

From 02/02/2003 to 10/01/2007, the markets ran up to a double top and the 2nd top closed with a high of 1,549; +708 points over 56 months.

If the first bottom 666.79 occurred on 03/02/09, is it reasonable to assume the bottoming process will require 3-4 months to set the 2nd leg down; May-June? If so, the current run up looks awfully compressed for the time frame?

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#209) On March 23, 2009 at 7:10 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

sorry the previous post should read

2002-2003 Double bottom; duration 4 months: 

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#210) On March 23, 2009 at 7:25 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Congrats, GMX!  I'm glad you regained some of your money.  Btw, you are a class act and a good sport when you're wrong & when you're right.

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#211) On March 23, 2009 at 7:32 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

I am confused, wasn't the volume today about 2/3rds of what it usually is?  Why is everyone saying high volume?  I know the last few days were.

 

Anyways, what sucks the most out of all of this crap is how my girlfriend doesn't understand how hard of a day this was, what the f?  Investing to live is hard enough, but when your SO isn't supportive it's just BS. 

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#212) On March 23, 2009 at 7:33 PM, geno0010 (< 20) wrote:

Seems like GV's posts were getting a lot more recs when everyone was winning. Consider this a fairly cheap lesson. It seems a lot of people didn't have a plan for the scenario that played out. GV says always have a plan - your own plan that's suited to your money, your risk tolerance, etc. I lost a little money today, but it didn't even touch my gains for the last week. Why? Because I hedged my shorts with longs; I had an escape plan when things skyrocketed today. Make you own plan and stick to it!!!!

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#213) On March 23, 2009 at 7:45 PM, NewHampshireMan (97.47) wrote:

TSIF,

I applaud you on your last post. I would be in one of GV's entry level classes  and love all that I am learning. Personally I think he is crazy trying to serve a community such as this as I realize how much effort it takes just to follow on my schedule yet alone lead it. Even with a potential pullback I am likely to lose money but I will take it like a man and hold my head up high. I remember struggling in a math class many years ago yet I had the best teacher in the subject I had ever had. I did not get good grades on the first two report card but I was inspired to keep trying and do my best. I eventually ended up getting good grades in his class because he did not give up on me and inspired me to do better by improving my effort and how I thought about the subject. I feel the same way in this "class". I may not get a good grade right away but I know if I give the right effort and learn I will be just fine. Thanks all for helping me learn! Thanks teacher. Don't lose your soul doing this. Do what you can to help but you need not do more than that.

NHM

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#214) On March 23, 2009 at 7:47 PM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

A couple things:

TSIF, that was a fantastic post -- I don't think any of that could have been said better.

GV, many (hopefully most) of us here have been going the Russ/Mary route and just absorbing the knowledge, putting very little or no money at risk. We thank you profusely for your time and for your efforts.  In the aftermath of today's events, I offer for your consideration the possibility that this could be your greatest lesson of all. As they say, people learn much more from failure than from success.  I for one, from a completely academic perspective, would love to know what went wrong, and if you see anything in retrospect that could have led you to different scenarios (including the one that actually transpired) than those which you formulated.  I hope you realize that I mean no disrespect by this request -- I'm just excited about learning to fish, and I think this particular example could be a very big, juicy worm.

Also thought I'd bump my post #195 so it doesn't get lost...would love to get the thoughts of someone more knowledgeable than I.  Shouldn't be terribly difficult to find someone with that qualification :)

Cabot

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#215) On March 23, 2009 at 7:52 PM, geno0010 (< 20) wrote:

Cabot - I was thinking the same thing. The trend wass made of lower highs and lower lows - bearish outlook. We haven't broken that trend yet. I'm still learning too, but i can see what you are referring to.

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#216) On March 23, 2009 at 7:53 PM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

firehog5 (76.97)

No? What was the number?  Was it firehog is gloating after losing for a year straight? 

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#217) On March 23, 2009 at 7:55 PM, RVAspeculator (98.67) wrote:

Goodvibe....The good news is, because of those long ETF's you never closed from way back in January your CAPS account had an up day.

See the benefit of never closing losing positions in caps!   :)

I closed a lot of my long positions in real life and in caps last Wednesday.   I will be closing quite a few more Tuesday, I may even get out of the long side all together, I don't know if I will have time to close them in CAPS though.

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#218) On March 23, 2009 at 8:03 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~TSIF - Great post! Your a great asset to this community and the words you speak should in times be screamed.

~Cabot - Check my chart, I think I might address it.

The greatest thing about today is I get to go back and take stabs at "bigger picture charts" I took a Stab at the 1yr, 6mo SPX. Not much really changed on that rather than moving 5 over and start a recount. Curious if GV would agree on my new "A" count and Fib placement. I can now go back to the start of wave 1 since now we are judging a corrective a,b,c pattern. I know we have multiple counts to consider, and this is just one. Also, I know "C" is way out there.

Enlarge

** Notice** Read at your own risk. Please wait for GV's count

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#219) On March 23, 2009 at 8:23 PM, bootz27 (97.34) wrote:

GV Today was just the tip of the iceburg. I don't think you have any idea the magnitude of the avalanche headed your way. You seem to be very sincere in your efforts to educate, but there is a very good reason that most people are terrible traders. I noticed something today in some of your comments that I had not seen before. EMMOTION!!!!!!!!  It will destroy you. I have won and lost, but in retrospect, the happiest day of my life was when I got fired for giving  bad advice. What does it benefit a man to lay up worldly treasures if he is not happy. As an observer, I enjoy your blogs and all the comments that follow.  Please be careful.

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#220) On March 23, 2009 at 8:36 PM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

Everybody, it really bothers me that people are still trying to convince themselves that the market can still come down, this is flawed thinking I believe. I have to trade whats going to happen, not what I think will happen, we've had GV make some great calls over the past but he said several times that wave 5's are very unpredictable, I didn't follow him 100% because I'm not at his house and cannot know excactly what he's thinking and the conviction behind his thouights. I hope everybody takes in consideration this, and also the ETF issue is very dangerous, there is a great possibility of losing a lot of money, for this reason I started reducing last week and didn't get caught up in the moment and try to wish the market one way or the other, I'm not trying to be harsh but thats what happened here. Go back and read all the comments and you will see that hope took over from logic and you can never rely on hope, hope is not a viable strategy, I never had the conviciton we had when we were calling the bottom, it was different then.

I hope nobody took that the wrong way but I think it's important to understand that having a strategy either way and not getting emotional when it goes against you is very important. If your not willing to lose 50% of your portfolio then take precautions and save yourself the pain, I put in stops today before I went to bed and they stopped a lot of my loss, when I woke up I was relieved but not emotional, I'm already trying to find my next edge, I don't know what that is yet but I'm all cash now. Everybody needs to be careful again and don't start wishing the market up or down again, lets look at everything, get a plan, go slow and start again.

Preston

 

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#221) On March 23, 2009 at 8:44 PM, ZachGruver (98.39) wrote:

Goodvibe,

How do you get the TRIX Indicator to look the way it does on your charts? For me it seems to move much slower.

Thanks,

Zach

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#222) On March 23, 2009 at 8:45 PM, mark91055 (< 20) wrote:

My play today for criticism or learning.--  Expected drop after runup at opening so I went short the IWM using puts.  Several hours later we were only going up and poking at the magic 804 number so instead of bailing I bought the calls for a straddle.  This is the same play I used last week and it has worked out.  I sold the calls at the end of the day and got all my money back for the puts and calls.  I still have the puts and am waiting for a retrace.  I like using options as it is easier to play both sides.

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#223) On March 23, 2009 at 8:46 PM, tsoang (< 20) wrote:

I hope today's market taught us a lesson and steer GV's blog to the right direction. I have noticed lately we have not focus on trading and the technical learning as much as we should. 

 Guys, today's battle is done but tomorrow's battle's coming. Let's get to work and focus on the trades so we'll be ready before tomorrow's bell ring. For those who got out with a loss, get ready to help yourself and others to get back the losses.

cheers,

-tsoang 

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#224) On March 23, 2009 at 9:09 PM, akt91493 (97.45) wrote:

Thank you all for your support.

Mary-That wasn't paper trading, although I wished I had done that first.

 Goodvibe- I don't think I have called it quits for sure, but I am taking a long break from trading and investing. I plan on going to college for economics and maybe even taking the Series 7 exam. That way, I could return with more knowledge.

I think the mistakes I've made was that I didn't put enough work into my stock picks I've made. Honestly, I find it somewhat ironic that my CAPS score is a lot better than the real -life stock picks I made. Maybe long term investing is right for me, but right now I'll just enjoy being a teenager.

As for the money, I'm not really worried because my father made the same mistakes 10 years ago. He told me that some people weren't born to trade. He then went on to create a very successful company. All in all, this experience was very knowledgeable. Hopefully I can return 5 years from now and start all over, and be profitable.

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#225) On March 23, 2009 at 9:11 PM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

#211 (Aye)

I hear you brother...not that happy today and I guess it showed when I got home!  Tough to explain to someone not involved/concerned about the markets at all.

So tonight I'm signing off and not looking anymore at my portfolio (big red minus sign in account value change) and just trying to regroup / recollect and take it all in. See everyone tommorow hopefully refreshed and ready for the next trade!

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#226) On March 23, 2009 at 9:56 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

I may be wrong but I think the point you're missing is the distance between logic and the graphs which tell an honest story.

My question stands as written:

$S&P 500 Index (10yr)

(values and dates are approximate)

From the 08/01/2000 high of 1,525, the markets ran down to a double bottom close of 815 on 09/02/2002; -710 points over 25 months. 

2002-2003 Double bottom; duration 4 months: 

09/02/2002  closed at 815

11/1/2002 run up to close at 936

02/02.2003 ran down to retest a close at 841 and put in the double bottom

From 02/02/2003 to 10/01/2007, the markets ran up to a double top and the 2nd top closed with a high of 1,549; +708 points over 56 months.

If the first bottom 666.79 occurred on 03/02/09, is it reasonable to assume the bottoming process will require 3-4 months to set the 2nd leg down; May-June? If so, the current run up looks awfully compressed for the time frame?

If charting is logic what logic lies in the past? 

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#227) On March 23, 2009 at 10:02 PM, CoastalTrader (92.21) wrote:

I really haven't had a chance to study this elliot wave business, but looking at traditional TA if we open and close tommorow above the 50 MA (somwhere around 795-800), doesn't that bode well for holding support at this level and looking to around 875?

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#228) On March 23, 2009 at 10:09 PM, VIS46 (< 20) wrote:

Gv:

    I remember you telling in late Fibruary" Are we ready for a multimonth bullmarket rally" May be it started a little late now.We will take advantage of that now with every pullback.I have not lost faith in your TA

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#229) On March 23, 2009 at 10:40 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

ayekappy,

Where are you seeing this low volume, I am seeing above average volume on many stocks, especially those that were up and way up.

bothisellhigher,

If I had held FAZ the last 2 hours today I would have lost another 25% looking at after hours prices. I see no assurance that we will go back under 804 anytime soon.

My mother warned me (not really) about bear market ralys like this. SPX at 880 looked cheap back around Jan 2nd as I recall. This rally could go further now before a correction. All I see is bears running for cover. FAZ is already $20, down to about $19. It's 6 month low was $35 until a week ago!

arboretum

I am with you, no need to swim upstream! Well said! Also your description of how news really does and does affect the market, especially the effect of surprize news is right on INHO. 

GV, has trading skills that many of us lack, and he knows how to hedge his beats. But it is possible to hedge beats and loose on both sides at the same time.

 geno0100,

 When we past 804 and left it behind, we broke 2 major bear trend lines, so they no longer apply, the channel down is gone!

 mark91055

I would love to see a detailed blog on how you did that stradle! Sounds very interesting! 

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#230) On March 23, 2009 at 10:46 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Born # 6 – Please post your comment here. I forgot to mention that. You just copy the text (right click then copy), then go to the other post and paste in the comment section. Thanks and nice to meet you!

Dimitrous #7 – I think today’s action answered your question of why I hold my long positions while I open short positions. The long and shorts positions function on different time frames. I bought long positions that’s running from 675 until today so they are solidly in the green and I have short positions that opened as early as 765 – 797 so now I know that we bottomed, I’ll wait for my shorts to turn whole or take a small loss on them and add more to my longs taking both up again with more confidence that my old longs and the solid bottom as my hedge. 

Mary #9 – Today, it appears that the news was the cause and it’s very hard to convince anyone otherwise. I beg to differ and I know this from experience. I don’t trade the news and I care less of any news. This is my style and I am proud of it because I know it doesn’t effect my trading tools. I apologize that I don’t factor news in my work but the good news is that I factor facts, which tell me that nothing changed than two weeks ago. That doesn’t mean you should listen to my advice to discount the news from your consideration. You should if you think it does make sense to you.

Sommeros #14– You got it right my friend. That was our short positions’ nightmare and we got it! :)

Mary # 34 – You did no wrong my dear! Bring your concerns as well as anything you believe of benefit.

Everybody – Please don’t ask me especially during the day what to do with your positions! I told you this is not my role here. You have to have a plan that fits you! Never follow my plan because you are not me and I am not you. This is why I avoid telling you what I trade.

GMX #126 - #143 Our humble contrarian’s indicator strikes again. This time the broken clock is right! Congrats brother!

Buildgreen #134 scenario 1 was not connected to 2 or 3 but scenario 2 is connected to 3. Does that make sense?

Sommeros #139 – first move is the false one applies ONLY for the Fed’s meeting.

Murugan #145 – Thanks for the links. I hope people find value in them. I always ask you all to bring any stuff you find valuable and most of all learn TA from here or from anywhere you see Fit.

Blueinsight # 147 – That was beautiful to read. Thanks!

Fmede # 169 – I feel your sadness but it’s not the way to go. Hard cold decisions are the only way to survive in this business. I wish you have a good night. I will explain to you my hedging process late but I think I did this before including comment # 3 but I’ll try one more time in hope it may help.

Mast #172 – Hope is may be the best of things but in trading hope is not a viable strategy. 

# 173 Eco – Congrats on your quick move today shifting from FAZ to FAS. I hope now you’re already straight.

#174 arbore – Again for the news issue! :) I don’t mind at all if anyone factor news in their trading strategy. For me, my TA work doesn’t care about it. I hope all of you are clear about it now. You can. I won’t! Different approaches, that’s all.

# 177 amass - I don’t think this is a short covering. I said above, this a genuine rally and the strong hands are defending their positions they bought since 666 and up pushing more bears into the corner and forcing their hands. It’s fair after the bears took last year gains to their heads. This is why they must humble themselves or the market will do it for them. Now, they are blaming the gov. for printing money, manipulating the system or what have you instead of blaming their greed and laziness!

# TSIF – I appreciate your kind response. It was gracious! Know that winners never quit. I am here to stay. It’s only my passion for people to learn what I learned and avoid the many mistakes I did before I get to learn right from wrong is what I am all about here. Words don’t effect me as it effect other people sometimes adversely and yours were little bit harsh but who knows they might meant to let someone who doesn’t get it kindly, finally get it. Please if you see someone is doing wrong in your eye, write to them directly instead of making generalization. All I wish for is people come to present their case even against TA in a productive way and let everyone choose their own. We can never know who is wrong or who is right until we try. This is why I tell everyone; “Before you jump, test!” Not everyone is a diver. As usual, no hard feeling, it’s waste of time. You’re most welcome to come back.

Cabot #112 – now you know that bottom is in all indexes not only the NASDAQ. #214 – As I said; in hindsight it’s easy to see things clear. The current situation was a possibility (see both sides), it was the last possibility and I was ready with a plan for it, which I communicated many times before including in comment # 3 (When wrong hit and run and break even or take your loss). What I would do better is to not overtrade that narrow range swing 765-805 and let the charts come to me instead of imposing my believe on it. I also underestimated the power of the bottom, which I myself predicted (the bulldoze and the chainsaws). All in hindsight again is easy to see. Now is the time to look forward, try to straight our short positions to the best of our abilities and live another day. 

RVA #217 I am not paying much attention to Caps to be honest. It’s on auto pilot at this moment! :)

219 bootz – Who said I am not happy or emotional! I am tired physically. You can imagine how hard it's working for 16 hours at times in a seat. After a comeback weekend outdoor activity since I started this blog, I was surprised to see how weak I became  PHYSICALLY! That said my emotions shows not in trading but in caring about people process of learning. All I care about is people learning. Not being right or wrong. That said, rest assure, I don’t give bad advice or I will be broke by now. I understand where are you coming from but I am willing for the sake of trying to teach even one person as much as I know, to risk looking fool..... but sad! No way! Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of. For the physical issue, I said what I'll do although I spent like an hour now reading and typing, which is not good. Comments are increasing and I am a perfectionist who want to do things right. I’ll sit down and figure away to wind down my time on Caps. Thanks for your comment.

#224 akt – Never fear losing or you will never ever win! You do believe. Best of luck!  

VIS #228 - The rally started Early March right here! It just showed up on every news media today with the so-called news. Should I have the right to brag a little about it? :)

Aye – Don’t expect any response from me to you any more!  (#83 # 198 and many previous posts of yours before these are the reason why I made that decision. You're welcome to stay here. This place doesn't belong to me to decide who speak or not. I just wanted you to know why I will not respond to any of your comments directed to me any more. I know now that I will never be able to add any value to you. At least for the time being.

Hope this find everyone well.

GoodVibe

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#231) On March 23, 2009 at 11:24 PM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

I think Boston Celtics Creedence Video says it all. I have been following this for the better part of a week here with you all following the Pied Piper GV. Now, back to the Fortunate Son, here was a little rinky dink third world jungle mud hole that kicked the tar out of the big bad ole's U.S. Not matter what people say the Viet Cong were some of the toughest mothers ever. With all our technological data and charts and statistics, a bunch of burrowing, poorly funded and inadequate fighting force wooped us good and hard, and it is still a sore spot. GV's charts and half of you all waiting on your Mesiah to tell you what to do tells me one thing, take your charts and stuff them. Too many variables, market inflated by hype and emotion, and no real data to correlate anything with. So, too all the warehouse workers, soccer moms, boiler room traders, and fools to be had, go back to stuffing money into your cookie jars, buy some t-bills, start up a little business selling jewerly or something. Half of you have no business being in the market. Take it from a guy who grew up on Water St. in NYC, mere blocks from Wall Street and has cousins that are VP's of banks, friends that have base salaries of 275 a year working as client advocates for major firms, a former college roomate with a 4.0 gpa and harvard grad that started his first year working from 4:30am till 11:30 the first 3 years out of school and by his third year made 685, you people are fooling yourselves, will most likely get burned and do not have the access to the information you need. I've seen it happen to much better than you. PARALYSIS DUE TO ANALYSIS

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#232) On March 24, 2009 at 1:15 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ok, lets take a few steps back here. We all need to reach inside and understand why we are here in this community that has brought together. Even if GV leaves us forever the spirit of what he crated should be carried through the true spirit of the community.

 

As humans we are lazy, want a quick answer and just told what to do. This is not the forum for it. I appreciate GV for what he has done, but he is not the resolve of my course. It is simple; he has leaded me to a path of education that can assist me to my goals as a teacher.

 

I left this out in my bio but I think I have a good story to tell for everyone here that may change your frame of mind about learning TA as a arsenal to the trading beliefs you already have. This is long in the making and I’ve wrote it about 3 times since we began before I deleted every time it in fear that it would not be in the spirit of the community (especially point provoked it, I hope you comment). Well, I cannot wait and well, after dealing with my day (not stock stuff) today I think I need to express it.

 

Ok, the summery of my story is this… if you don’t want to read any further:

 

It’s not your ability or dedication, but the material you learn is as important!

 

Story:

 

I was a wrester in high school and was good by nature because I was an extremely small guy. I went through 3 years and learned everything I could and dedicated myself more than anyone on the team. My senior year my goal was to reach CA state finials in CA. Long story short I, for the first time in my life, gave 100% to something to see how far I could go. I lost 1 match away from going to state finials in masters.

 

For years I was devastated even though I held a record of 25 years of the school of wrestling achievement. People, family and friends told me I should be proud, but I was utterly devastated. To make things worse, 2 years after I graduated a fat kid that didn’t have one ounce of my ability or dedication broke my record…..

 

At that point, I ran to the training practice to figure out what the hell was going on. Sure enough, the kid that beat my record deserved it. (Heavyweight and I was 103 lbs..lol) They had a new coach with a new program. The coach was a 5 time NCAA champion form MS and an Olympic Coach who moved here with two sons in high school. They asked why I was there and I told them. They offered me a coaching job and I took it. I was in charge of the freshman and sophomores with the new training manual that was designed with the program and taught me all the “wrongs” I was taught in my own wrestling career. It was nuts, these guys taught everything that I knew worked, (that is how I excelled) that I was told NOT TO DO!!!

 

So, I took the job and relived my career though the youth. I’ve never felt more completeness in my soul as I did during that time. These kids were on the fast track of being elite even in their first year of learning. It was simply amazing that we went to varsity tournaments with my frosh/soph team and placing in the top 3 schools every time, while our varsity team was going to the major “named” tournaments.

 

I think the same principles apply to investing and I see myself in the same spot, a failed investor that never had the right education in “right” material to actually become the elite. Even worse, I feel the need to become that role that is needed to become the frosh/soph teacher in this community and I’m simply not there…. It kills me every day that I cannot help others when I’m not confident in my own understanding. Even worse my own life is so torn between so many wants, I cannot even educate my self. If I had my wish in life I could stop all want and just finish the book, and start a new Blog for the beginning questions of counts and stuff……

 

I want to be the frosh/soph coach that GV really needs and I’m not there and I want to be. I can’t dedicate myself 100% as before and I really wish I could. For now we all must pick up the right material and learn for ourselves until we can break into multiple parts of understanding this stuff. I think one of the posters above mentioned something very true. We are all graduating into different degrees of understanding and GV cannot answer us all. I feel obligated to pick up the lower levels, but I’m simply not there yet and I apologize to GV and the community that I’m not that guy……yet

 

~I hope I didn’t discourage anyone, I mean this in the best of our amazing online community that I never thought could exist. The future is an amazing thing people! Trust me on this.  After years of learning investment ideas I believe we  are learning the right material to become the elite of investors or traders. It is up to you to take the material presented and run!

 

~Happy Hunting~~

 

 

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#233) On March 24, 2009 at 1:44 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

Well put Russ. I will be able to put more time to this in the future and maybe I can start helping as well. I think you are doing well and I will be leaning on you in the days to come when I start putting my charts up here.

Lets get this party started.

Thanks.

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#234) On March 24, 2009 at 2:50 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Hey buddy - You have a great soul and spirit, Russ. I feel you but nobody here including myself expects you to teach (yet). We all look at you in amazement that you picked up the pieces together so fast, put the time and energy to learn that stuff that seem like hieroglyphic to others - even to those who are smarter than both of us combined. Everyone look at you as an inspiration that they one day also can make it. I know you will make it. 100% with no doubt. Once you taste that winning cup, which you did, there's no turnning back to the simple life.

         You wanted it enough, and you will get it.

Trading is something that humbles even the Hitler of the world. It stirs all the emotions you can never imagine possible. It’s a big part of the game. You remember when you asked me how long it took me to make my mark. Not long really but what took really long time is my current ability to hold my emotions together no matter what. This is going to be your hardest task. All this TA is nothing comparing to acquiring this ability. Anyone can learn TA but very few will be able to succeed in trading because of this barrier. And wait when you place an order of 7 figures and it goes against you! That will be a lot of fun. :)

I used to make in a year, what now I can lose or gain in a day even sometimes few hours. You want to be there. You will be there. No need to rush, Russ! Take your time brother. You’re doing great and even underestimating your abilities here. I'll be here for you and for those who desired my efforts as long as you want me to. No matter what happen, I'll stay here until at least YOU get it down. I promise and a promise is a promise.

I'll see you tomorrow on the battlefield or should we say the chart field. I am finishing the charts before I go to bed and I'll post it as soon as possible. Tell me what do you think.

GoodVibe

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#235) On March 24, 2009 at 2:58 AM, ati2ud (26.56) wrote:

GV- Thank you, thank you, thank you...  I know you said harsh words do not affect you, but I hope praise does.  I have learned more about the market in general the last few weeks I have been reading your blog then I have ever known.  As I said once before mail takes forever to get where I am right now so I am a bit behind waiting for some study material.  But thanks to you and Russ and some other people in your community I am starting to grasp some of the TA concepts.  Slowly.

I guess you would call me typical long term investor for up markets.  (thats what we supposed to do right?  thats how we are supposed to save to retire one day right?)  But there is so much more...  It was awesome to watch the small % of an assortment of ETF's shorting the market work the last few days.  Obviously they lost money, but for me that was the rub!  The market in general took off, taking most of my portfolio along for the ride, except these little bears in the corner who were now unhappy.

So here I am, 'average investor guy who want to know more', finding out there are other doors, other paths.  And thanks to you I can see how to find my own tools to travel down them.  So again, thank you for what you have shared, thank you for anything you continue to share, I am grateful sir. 

-andrew

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#236) On March 24, 2009 at 3:11 AM, ati2ud (26.56) wrote:

GV- Thank you, thank you, thank you...  I know you said harsh words do not affect you, but I hope praise does.  I have learned more about the market in general the last few weeks I have been reading your blog then I have ever known.  As I said once before mail takes forever to get where I am right now so I am a bit behind waiting for some study material.  But thanks to you and Russ and some other people in your community I am starting to grasp some of the TA concepts.  Slowly.

I guess you would call me typical long term investor for up markets.  (thats what we supposed to do right?  thats how we are supposed to save to retire one day right?)  But there is so much more...  It was awesome to watch the small % of an assortment of ETF's I purchased shorting the market work the last few days.  Obviously they lost money, but for me that was the rub!  The market in general took off, taking most of my portfolio along for the ride, except these little bears in the corner who were now unhappy.  Now to try and learn to put myself in the best position possible from all the information available, and how to try and read that info of course,

So here I am, 'average investor guy who want to know more', finding out there are other doors, other paths.  And thanks to you I can see how to find my own tools to travel down them.  So again, thank you for what you have shared, thank you for anything you continue to share, I am grateful sir. 

-andrew

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#237) On March 24, 2009 at 3:16 AM, tsoang (< 20) wrote:

Hi GV, I'm not afraid that you give us the wrong prediction, what I'm afraid of is you leaving us because there's nowhere else I can learn from like this. You have a wealth of knowledge and living example that trading can make a living and I can someday get there. I'm down about 50% of my portfolio but I'm regrouped and I'm ready for tomorrow and dig myself out of the hole. I learned to be more carefully from this lesson. At least for me, a tighter game plan. Wait a little longer for the confirmation and entry point and earlier partial exit points. Can't wait to see your up coming charts and trend lines to help formulate my game plan.  

Let's stay together and grow stronger,

-tsoang 

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#238) On March 24, 2009 at 3:30 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

~GV, You know what's really funny is that the main reason I got in to computers 12 years ago is that someone told me than I was not "smart" enought to be a MCSE.... network administrator... and I struggled more than everyone around me... It took me 3 times the study to understand what they picked up naturally..... I laugh now that i'm a "fast learner".... maybe we all get a chance of "natual" learning....lol

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#239) On March 24, 2009 at 3:32 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Thanks Andrew for your kind words.

tsoang - what kind of risk you took to be down 50% in 4 days? Ultra ETFs? FAZ and the like? Everyone should stay away from these until way later. Please refrain from these trades in the future. Again, I don't know really what are your goals, capital, timeframe, etc. to judge so you be the judge. I mentioned many times than I can count that if you don't know how to trade options, don't trade this stuff. I know you guys want to make money but patience is the key. You can't force your way into gains. Take your time learning. I'll be back in no time.

GoodVibe 

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#240) On March 24, 2009 at 3:46 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

GV, are you fixing to start another blog, I wan't to post a SPX chart here but I don't know what your plans are.

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#241) On March 24, 2009 at 4:03 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

I am just trying to copy Russ' chart so I can get better at posting charts, please do not trade by this chart.

Gv, I hope this does not clutter your work. Thanks for your understanding and patience with us, I will be here and would like to continue to learn.

 

Large

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#242) On March 24, 2009 at 4:09 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Preston - You have my live links too. You can use them if you wish. I will start the lessons as soon as I can and you will have plenty of time and space to put your work.By the way something doesn't look right in your indicators. I don't know what it is yet.

Here's the new post. Let us move on. This post is closed for more comments. See you all tomorrow.

GoodVibe

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#243) On March 24, 2009 at 4:10 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Did I truly sound so serious this morning about Geithner, or do we all just have a "Not him again" sort of reaction about that guy?  I think it would take a national calamity like 9/11 to really have an effect on the market.  Anything else is a one day wonder or, more likely, is no effect at all.  We all like to have reasons when things happen and it is nice to say that the market went up for this reason or down for that.  I don't think that the day's news or any other silly thing causes the market to go up or down.  My comment was meant as a joke, not as a serious concern.  If I had been voicing a serious concern, it would have been that neither you, nor I, nor any of a number of people I can think of are giving ourselves enough breaks from the market and the computer.

When we started this, you left the computer to go work out and have dinner after trading all day.  You are neglecting yourself for others and no real friend would want that. 

I know much more than I did and I have moved to real trading.  I have also moved back from ETFs as being too much for my risk level at the moment except in small doses.  A major step considering that 2 weeks ago, I didn't know what they were.  Today I stayed away because I couldn't get comfortable with any decision regarding them.  I have decided that the one choice I will not regret is the decision to say no to turning cash into stock.  Also if I take a smaller profit, I will not be upset with myself for leaving money on the table.  If I reach that point of being that greedy, I have to walk away from investing real money for my own sanity.

There may be a point at which you have to walk away from the teaching to keep your sanity.  If that should happen, I would be honored to consider you still a friend on this blog and elsewhere, even without the trading advice.  Your friendship is more precious than even your teaching is to me.  You are more than the information that you have to give, as is Russ, as is Preston, as are so very many here.

Do not wonder if your friends count you worthy based on recs.  We count you as a dear friend and we are concerned more for your health and well-being than for whether you are right or wrong on a stock market call.

As to the Rubicon clip, (1776)  it is a backdrop for difficult moments or beginnings for me.  It is something like the "little ducks" speech  in Crimson Tide for you.  The fact that the Rubicon has come to mean more may be a problem in this case.  I suppose the image of little ducks quacking across a large river wouldn't have had the same grandeur.  (quack quack)  ;-)  I will keep in mind, for the future though, that those "Rubicon-like" numbers tend to trigger computer programs set up by others who have also seen the Rubicon and are determined to buy on the exact same crossing points. 

Rest well,

Mary 

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#244) On March 24, 2009 at 4:30 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Preston~~The fact that you post a chart is HUGE!!! fantastic job my brother that works at night...lol

1.) Change your size to 1280, no matter how large it looks on your screen.

2.) Once you save at 1280 on Flicker User the "enlarge" link to the 1280 size.

3.) use the medium sixe with then emobied line to the thread.

4.) Your base coount is not wrong... It is Right!! time to grow of then new charts that are posted..

Step one of many my man! great job!

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#245) On March 24, 2009 at 8:00 AM, beyondanonda (28.83) wrote:

GV,

I think others have expressed pretty well that we have all chosen to be here and greatly appreciate the opportunity, you clearly have experience, knowledge and thankfully are on a mission.  We are forwarned, many of us by past experience, that the market will punish you for not being attentive every step of the way (such as hedge your bets in turbulent times).  I use the charts on my computer, calculating trend lines and counting waves, following your discussions but have yet to take the time to post a chart.  Bravo to Russ, Binve and others who have done so.  And russ, you are correct, after we are done starring in our own lives and start to teach, the real rewards are reaped.

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