7uniquefools (< 20)

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 25, 2009 at 1:11 AM, TMFMarathonMan (98.18) wrote:

Let me start by saying that I have absolutely no idea how to value gold (it is a non-productive asset, after all).

However, some of the outstanding investors/ strategiests I track have begun expressing interest in gold recently (including James Melcher, Christopher Wood, etc). As far as what people will be willing to pay for it by Christmas next year, I can easily imagine gold at $1,600 per ounce and over $2,000 within the next 3 years.

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#2) On March 25, 2009 at 1:20 AM, EV38 (99.87) wrote:

I would say $1600+ before Christmas 2009.

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#3) On March 25, 2009 at 2:02 AM, uclayoda87 (30.65) wrote:

$1500/ounce by the end of October 2009 and over $2000/ounce in 2010.

This is based on an expected devalued US Dollar and a spike in unemployment and bankruptcies in the summer 2009, causing investors to shift from the stockmarket into other assets which may appear safer.

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#4) On March 25, 2009 at 8:58 AM, rofgile (88.29) wrote:

Gold has to be affordable to have a price.  If the price is too high for most people to buy or want to buy it, it will stay limited or fall.

Gold 2X current price is not affordable.  Gold at the current price is difficult to afford.

Gold will fall to $800 this year.  It's a bubble that will pop. 

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#5) On March 25, 2009 at 10:47 AM, EHoyle80 (< 20) wrote:

After the Fed introduced quantitative easing, Peter Cooper said, “Beware being left sat on cash when you should be owning gold and silver as a hedge against desperate actions by the central banks.” And the Stock Research Portal replies, “To use a double negative, I don’t think this is stupid advice.”

Via Stock Research Portal 

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#6) On March 25, 2009 at 11:35 AM, TMFMarathonMan (98.18) wrote:

Gold has to be affordable to have a price.  If the price is too high for most people to buy or want to buy it, it will stay limited or fall.

Gold 2X current price is not affordable.  Gold at the current price is difficult to afford.

With the greatest respect, this makes no sense whatsoever.

 

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#7) On March 25, 2009 at 11:42 AM, TMFSinchiruna (98.15) wrote:

My thoughts on this are on record:

While the ongoing financial tsunami will continue to affect every economy on the globe, Fools are reminded that the U.S. remains the epicenter of the quake that started it all. With the current fiscal policy of free money, and outlays reaching into the trillions of dollars, the balance sheet of the United States has been compromised to an historic degree. Unfortunately, I believe the reserve currency of the world faces a difficult road ahead.

Sources like Peter Schiff and Citigroup have suggested that gold may reach $2,000 per ounce in 2009. Legendary investor Jim Rogers recently declared his intention to exit all dollar holdings. Personally, while I also see gold reaching $2,000 at some point during this historic run, I am not convinced it will come quite that quickly. The ratio of gold to silver prices stands near 80-to-1, suggesting silver may also have a nice recovery in store as it trends back toward an historical average ratio of about 20-to-1.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/12/31/gold-will-be-fine-in-2009.aspx

$2,000 is a certainty... the when is not important, but $1,650 will be breached either in 2009 or 2010, IMO.

 

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#8) On March 25, 2009 at 4:10 PM, rofgile (88.29) wrote:

TMFMarathonMan:

 A large part of gold price is demand/supply (the other is speculation).   Much of the demand is for use in jewelry (particularly in India).  Since gold has been rising so much, people will put off purchases of gold or buy something more affordable.  

 In other words, gold's price is not solely due to what people think it'll do (I hear a lot of gold is going to $2000 lately).  It's also related to what jewelry makers will pay for gold.  Since 2000 gold has already doubled in price.  Do you really think gold will double in price again?  What jewelry maker will want to pay twice the price from an already high price?

 And, if the price gets extremely high, governments can always start to sell their gold stocks flooding the market.

 This is a case of the bigger it is the harder it falls.  If gold gets much higher, the fall will be much harder in the end.  

 Silver is still a safer investment, if you are really banking on precious metals.   I hold silver, wouldn't waste money on gold at this price. 

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#9) On March 25, 2009 at 4:27 PM, JTShideler (96.37) wrote:

I think rofgile makes an interesting argument, oil prices another hedge to dollar inflation, have had its prices collapse because of weak demand.  What caused the weak demand, the Global Economic Slow Down, but there were some indications that the higher prices were changing consumer behavior.  While I am not sure that we can put an exact figure on when gold's demand is impacted by price level, I think it is reasonable to assume that all things with demand signals will one day be influenced directly by their valuation and if something is too expensive relative to other commodities, its price will reach a peak also.

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#10) On April 03, 2009 at 2:54 PM, sberberick (89.14) wrote:

if gold is going down in this enviroment and can't break to new highs with the market the way it is it's not looking good . I think it could possibly trade @ it's current levels . As of today it's @ 900 . Maybe 850-1000 .

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