GoodVibe4Ever (99.08)

117 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 21, 2009 at 9:43 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Instruction of using this application “CIL”:

When the room is open and not in "stand by" mode, there's nothing to do during a Live Event other than read, watch and occasionally send in a comment or vote in the polling questions. You don’t have to set up usernames and passwords or required to download anything to watch our live event. You will never need to refresh or even scroll down unless you disable the 'autoscroll' feature from the controls at the bottom of the Viewer Window (which you shouldn't). You can also turn off the music and the sound effects that alert you to new content as the commentators publish it from the same controls.

That said CIL is not equipped to be a chat room but we are trying to make it work like one by allowing as many people to comment within the restrictions in this application.

So we want you to understand these easy following steps to enjoy this powerful application:

1. If you know that you will never comment, ask questions, post chart, links, media, etc., then you just click play and enjoy the conversation for as long as you like!

2. If you decide to contribute to the conversation, you must choose a name to identify yourself, type your first comment and click send. This first comment must be a request to whomever moderating the room to either publish your comment as one time only or grant you an “always allow” status if you know that you will be heavily engaging in the conversation. Your first comment can be something like; [please, add me as an 'always allow']. Or [please add this comment only - .......] etc.

The only difference is that if you ask for only one-time permission, you will have to ask again for another one for your next comment. If you get the “always allow” status, your comments will be published instantly without a moderator approving them as if you were using an instant messaging product. Type and click send.

No comment can be seen without this step first. It’s up to you to choose which one you like not for us to dictate who speaks and who doesn’t. In either case all comments will be published unless you instruct the moderator otherwise.

We have up to 50 access “always allow” where 25 of them have more commenting editing tools “Panelist status” that will be given to those who want to post charts and their computer are capable to handle the standalone application. That's it!

Please make the moderator's job easier by doing the following:

1. Ask for "always allow" if you are planning to have three comments or more per day and when you don’t want it anymore, just let the moderator know that you don’t need it anymore.

2. Dedicate a browser or a tab in your browser to this page where you will not refresh it or close it (Very important). When you do this, you might need a new permission.

3. Please update your browser and your java to the latest edition and allow popup menu if you decide to get the panelist status.

4. Be patient! Sometimes the room is open but no one around to allow your comment. Come later to see if your comment went through.

Thank you very much for understanding!

We still comment in the regular Caps' commenting area but not as much as before. If you rather post there, you can do that. I will also ask those with critical charts or alerts to post in the old comment section, as they will in CIL.

Last note: Those who will be given "always allow" status, please moderate yourself. Talking endlessly without considering people's time is not constructive. Think about those who want to read the whole conversation later. If they will find it burden to read a lot of chat that benefit them little, they will avoid reading the whole thing and might pass on valuable information. If it will take me more than 20 minutes to read the whole day worth of chat, I might not read it again. So, easy on the keyboard, tigers.

We stay together, we survive and thrive. This we believe and strive to live.

GoodVibe Community

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#2) On April 21, 2009 at 9:44 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

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#3) On April 21, 2009 at 9:45 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Enlarge

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#4) On April 21, 2009 at 11:47 PM, foolsMeThrice (< 20) wrote:

it's more like an impulse response.  An arc.  I don't think there is enough buying demand to move it higher.  GS selling equity here marks an interim top to me.

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#5) On April 21, 2009 at 11:57 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Ok, found the chart(s)! that GV was last not counting the opposite direction. It was multiple charts.... 2yr.. but you could tell he was over the down trend, just like now...lol It's bear time!

http://msncaps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=157712&t=01009449456398254945

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#6) On April 22, 2009 at 12:23 AM, goldminingXpert (99.98) wrote:

What on earth? I can't figure out where to comment. Apparently the GV community has spread tentacles across the Interwebs during my absence. Anyway, this blog post is correct. This market is going down like, well, let's keep it family-friendly. This market is going down faster than the Titanic. As I posted January 7th, 943 was THE TOP for 2009. I believe it is quite likely that like that moment, last Friday will go down as the next highest high. It is highly probable that we will not trade above last Friday's level again in 2009, or quite possibly not even until say, 2011 or 2012/

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#7) On April 22, 2009 at 12:35 AM, awallejr (79.38) wrote:

While not TA, I keep watching 3m Libor.  It is down to 1.10 right now, it hasn't been that low for a long time.  If it continues to trend down, then this is only but a positive for the market.

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#8) On April 22, 2009 at 12:40 AM, awallejr (79.38) wrote:

And GMX that is my concern about the market from a bull's perspective.  The market really does need to hit 944, otherwise all we are seeing are smaller rallies after each major leg down.  Saw it in Sept, Oct, Nov, Jan and now could be April.  And while I still stand by my  call that April will be an overall up month, anything goes come May.

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#9) On April 22, 2009 at 12:48 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

GMX... I hold your openions in the highest regards as you know... but other than "gut" intuition.... why bro... I agree from the count options.. but why are you so BEAR now? Fundy's?

"3m libor"  I'm a newbie from many prespective and I look at daily libor % and just scratch my head...... I think it's somthing to do with what the % rate what banks borrow from eachother, but I don't understand how that works with anything... god I love charts......lol

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#10) On April 22, 2009 at 1:13 AM, awallejr (79.38) wrote:

Impacts borrowing costs and a "thawing" of lending,  something Bernanke has been working very hard on trying to accomplish.  If it keeps trending down it only but bodes well for the economy.

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#11) On April 22, 2009 at 1:29 AM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

Going against the group here and EW, but I really don't see us falling under 800 again; a pullback yes, but that's about it. Earnings are coming in fair but not as bad as expected. Most banks will be fine. Credit card exposure? No worries when you charge 20+% + fees and only require min payments of $20.

I also think a pullback of that level it will be bought up rather quickly. With that said though, there are 2 things that worry me about long positions; oil <50 and car companies. Oil above 50 is good and lots of people (pension funds, mutual funds, banks) holding GM paper and would also be round 2 for AIG on GM CDSs. So my bias is slightly long but certainly not "all in" until I have clarity on the above 2 issues. Just my thoughts for discussion.

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#12) On April 22, 2009 at 2:19 AM, tonylogan1 (29.11) wrote:

we'll see in the AM herz... I have a feeling we'll chat.

I reviewed some commodities and the dollar, and I am willing to concede some recovery in a few commodities... But I am short the market and think we will definitely see sub-800 again. Maybe not this week, but again... yes.

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#13) On April 22, 2009 at 2:40 AM, awallejr (79.38) wrote:

Herz I agree with you about oil.  Ironically the higher the price of oil the better it is for the market.  I do think we will trend higher over the next few months basically because of the seasonal factor, but longterm it depends on so many factors (strength of world economy, inflation, supply/demand).

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#14) On April 22, 2009 at 3:39 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Would appreciate some live links to charts while at work on wednesday as I cannot see the messaging or 'enlarge; links at work.

123Spot, et al - No response as yet to Ryan's Friday afternoon scan. Very, very frustrating to a father of an only son not to have immediate access. Will call him tomorrow to inquire. I have forwarded to him all the info you sent. Have forwarded to him all prayers and links to these blogs, but his Interferon treatments of last year have fried his brain a bit much for his fragile memory. Not sure that he has gotten into them or not as yet. I am so tired of work and the home remodeling, but we have to keep going on, don't we. Just want to load him up and take a large fishing trip offshore for a few days...

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#15) On April 22, 2009 at 7:57 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

hertz,

what happens when people quit paying their credit card bills all together just like so many quit paying their mortgage? Those 20% fees aren't going to matter at all. It's actually setting the banks up for another fail.

Our economy is based on debt, which leads to a false outlook on our economic growth especially when people quit paying that debt back - mortgages, credit card bills, loans etc...

I don't really see how giving the banks more money to unfreeze the credit crisis, to give out more loans, creating more debt (which may not be paid back), to help our economy grow, is really going to fix things in the end.

Who knows, maybe it will work? I just wash dishes.

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#16) On April 22, 2009 at 8:43 AM, herztical (24.66) wrote:

Dan

Again what people fail to realize is the reason for the 20%+ loan shark rates and fees on credit cards is to cover the defaults.  Again, most people pay their credit cards. They also make money on interchange typically 1-3% on anything you buy with a credit card (that includes people who pay 100% every time). The defaults are nothing new so you have to onder if it's baked in allready?  ie. reflected in stock prices and built up reserves. 

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#17) On April 22, 2009 at 9:16 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

I hear what you're saying hertz, but I do know and work with several people who have tens of thousands racked up in credit card bills with no real intentions of paying them back.They also have nothing really to show for their spending

They have been threatend legally, and they still go through life with no concern at all.

I don't know what will happen to them personally, but I do know that their credit card company's aren't going to see the money they owe. Can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.

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#18) On April 22, 2009 at 9:18 AM, PrestonCheek (88.98) wrote:

Man, great cases here and a lot to think about.

Sold my FAS this morning and I'm sitting neutral now.

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#19) On April 22, 2009 at 10:54 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

ENLARGE  LIVE

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#20) On April 22, 2009 at 1:01 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Bait,

 Uncertainty is so hard to bear. Does Ryan have an upcoming appt. at MDA? Often the results are not given to the patient until the doctor is available to discuss the results and to help the patient put those into context. However, MDA allows all patients complete access to their charts. The medical records dept. there will give copies of Ryan's chart to any authorized person (good idea to get one person in addition to Ryan authorized to retrieve copies of his chart-test results are posted to the chart as soon as transcribed. That said, Ryan should not take any action on results he gets through this channel and should commit to keep his appt. regardless of the results, because he may misinterpret the implication of the results.

Peace and prayers.

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#21) On April 22, 2009 at 10:35 PM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

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#22) On April 22, 2009 at 11:33 PM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

123Spot - Ryan has not gotten the results of his scan yet, but he does have an appointment there this week for his first big consult. If you will send me your e-mail to baitboy at mcloudteleco dot com and stephen dot gregory at tinker dot af dot mil I can send you what his sister sent to me yesterday. His big sister has set up a Caring Bridge site for him, but is not sure he will be able to set up his own info or if she will have top do it for him.

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#23) On April 23, 2009 at 1:11 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Did not get into the CIL tonight in time. Siding finished today, roof finishing tomorrow - Yee-Ha! Sold all longs tonight. will be all dry powder in the morning - ALL dry powder. That is a good feeling!

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#24) On April 23, 2009 at 1:32 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

My wife ran a karaoke gig at our favorite watering hole for a couple or three years until last spring when we just had to stop that to get the ice storm cleanup from Dec. 07 in OK in full swing. At any rate, one of my standard songs each of the three nights a week we did it was this one, one of my favorites, but I don't know if I'll ever be able to do it again:

 My child arrived just the other day
He came to the world in the usual way
But there were planes to catch and bills to pay
He learned to walk while I was away
And he was talkin' 'fore I knew it, and as he grew
He'd say "I'm gonna be like you dad
You know I'm gonna be like you"

And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon
Little boy blue and the man on the moon
When you comin' home dad?
I don't know when, but we'll get together then son
You know we'll have a good time then

My son turned ten just the other day
He said, "Thanks for the ball, Dad, come on let's play
Can you teach me to throw", I said "Not today
I got a lot to do", he said, "That's ok"
And he walked away but his smile never dimmed
And said, "I'm gonna be like him, yeah
You know I'm gonna be like him"

And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon
Little boy blue and the man on the moon
When you comin' home son?
I don't know when, but we'll get together then son
You know we'll have a good time then

Well, he came home from college just the other day
So much like a man I just had to say
"Son, I'm proud of you, can you sit for a while?"
He shook his head and said with a smile
"What I'd really like, Dad, is to borrow the car keys
See you later, can I have them please?"

And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon
Little boy blue and the man on the moon
When you comin' home son?
I don't know when, but we'll get together then son
You know we'll have a good time then

I've long since retired, my son's moved away
I called him up just the other day
I said, "I'd like to see you if you don't mind"
He said, "I'd love to, Dad, if I can find the time
You see my new job's a hassle and kids have the flu
But it's sure nice talking to you, Dad
It's been sure nice talking to you"

And as I hung up the phone it occurred to me
He'd grown up just like me
My boy was just like me

And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon
Little boy blue and the man on the moon
When you comin' home son?
I don't know when, but we'll get together then son
You know we'll have a good time then

He told me recently that I'm his hero - I never knew... Whenever you read this just stop whatever you are doing right now and go in and hug every one of your kids and hold them so tight they can't breathe. Hold them so tight you can't breathe

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#25) On April 23, 2009 at 9:11 AM, mkrm (< 20) wrote:

Just gave the little ones a squeeze.  So cute when they're sleeping.  Thanks for the suggestion Bait!

GV-  A  question for you.  Not asking about your specific trades, but interested to know the types of trades you use when establishing your plan.  Using the trading methodology you discussed in 'How do I start, close, hedge, and stop positions?', do you have a favored approach for the type of trade in each position?  Example:

Position 1:  ETFs (index, sector, 1x, 2x, etc.)?

Position 2:  Individual stock (sector, high beta, etc.)?

Emergency Spot:  Options (put or call purchases)?

Hit and Run:  ?

Just trying to make my plan as effective as possible.  Thanks!

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#26) On April 23, 2009 at 9:27 AM, Londamania (66.58) wrote:

Cats in the Cradle...great song!  One of my favs...

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#27) On April 23, 2009 at 3:16 PM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

Hi Everyone, I hope I'm posting in the right place, seems quiet lately. 

I was playing around with some charts and I don't know what to make (if anything) of these repeating patterns.  They're not EWT as far as I know, but nonetheless, they are repeating patterns and I see them throughout my index charts as well as individual stocks.  So I'm wondering if anyone knows if there is a name for these patterns or whether they can be useful.

Basically, I went a little nuts with support, resistance and trend lines.  The more lines I drew, the more I noticed how things line up.  I kept breaking down the patterns as even some of the most whacko looking charts showed some underlying trends (for instance, see ALTH).

Here is one of my rather messy charts:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3626/3468385457_38d986f5fe_o.png

Here's what I see:

1. Whether you like, use or believe in Bollinger Bands or not, the price action bounces off them regularly although not exactly predictably.  Perhaps enough people use BB's that it is somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy.  I suppose that's not really news.  Note: My chart is hourly, so in order to fudge the daily BB's and moving averages, I inserted a second set of overlays that use a period of 300, or 20 days times roughly 6 hours in a trading day.  It's not perfect, but it's close.  Those are the pink and purple sets of lines.  That way, I can see the BB's that most people use (daily) combined with more detailed price info.

2. When the price action bounces off a BB, it often does so at an angle exactly opposite of the underlying trend.  It's not perpendicular, but the opposite angle. 

3. The same is true for many of the other consolidation periods.

4. As the slope of the main trend changes, so does the slope of the opposing consolidation movement.  They stay inverse.  The angle seems to be flattening out, which I suppose would be a good sign for the bulls in the market.  Decreased volatility?

5. Check out how the most recent price action keeps following parallel channels that have the same slope.  The channels just keep drifting to the right.  As the price breaks down from one channel, that line (more or less a sloped line of support) becomes the upper bound for the next channel (resistance).  So for instance, the question is how long will these channels keep moving parallel?

6. So the obvious question is will the price reverse in accordance with these patterns.  For instance, look at how the latest rally has the inverse slope as the previous downfall.  Which, of course, is related to the slope of the corrections in the previous downfall.  This relation seems to extend to the smaller divisions too. 

7. As I mentioned about the BB's, the price action appears to be working within these channels and bounded (or bounced in the channel) between the upper BB and the MA.  There seems to be somewhat of a consensus that for a variety of reasons, we could see a drop to 790-ish, which correlates with the lower BB, some resistance, some technical measurements, etc.  The reasons vary, but the predictions seem to agree. 

People need price guidance and one recognized benchmark is the mean (whether simple or exponential).  BB's provide a relative indication of the current variance from the mean - in other words, they tell you how far you are away from some what people have been paying in the past (I'm not suggesting that's fundamentally important, but it's definitely psychologically important).  Couple that with various levels of support and resistance, and it seems you could end up with these patterns.  At least it makes sense to me.

So, what do you think?  Is this all obvious - something I missed in Charts 101?  Is there a description or name for these patterns? 

 

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#28) On April 23, 2009 at 3:24 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Bait, Sorry-but I don't give out my e-mail address for privacy reasons. CIL set-up lets us continue to discuss issues down here in the comments section easily without bogging things down for others. I am sure others want to keep up with Ryan,too. So I hope this works for you.Peace

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#29) On April 23, 2009 at 11:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Grandma - This is great eyes of you. We discussed your chart on CIL - comment #2 where we are hanging nowadays. Do you have a problem getting into it?

mkrm - I answered both your questions on CIL also 10:30PM comment tonight on CIL. Check it out.

See you all there. If you have a problem accessing it, please read #1 and then try. If not, give us a buzz.

GoodVibe

 

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#30) On April 24, 2009 at 12:42 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Grandmah2 - think fractals

 123Spot - for the 2nd time I will try to post, but I don't have a lot of patience lately - from my daughter in Houston, unedited and unannotated because I have lost the last hour of my life trying to do just that!

"I have not had an opportunity to talk to many of you regarding Ryan's evaluation at MD Anderson.  I thought I would try this route since I know some of you are interested in what his options are.  But before I go into that, I want to thank you so very much for your care, concern, prayers, and encouragement.  Whether you know Ryan or not, you have wished well and prayed for him.  That has been such a support to my family and me.  What a blessing you have each been.

As you know, last Tuesday, we were told that the melanoma has matastasized to lymphnodes in Ryan's neck, and chest, and they found a small spot on his lung as well.  On Friday, we met with one of the melanoma specialists at MD Anderson.  What an amazing facility!  They looked over all of the previous tests Ryan had, drew some blood, gave a thorough physical exam, and did an MRI to ensure it has not spread to his brain.  Although we have not received results from the MRI, based on the doctor's evaluation, he doesn't feel that it has spread to that point.

Then, he talked to us about 5 different treatment options.  The first is basic chemotherapy, but that is not really successful with melanoma...so it's a no go.  The next four options will occur in the listed order based on the fact that the current is not providing desired results.  Trials three-five are only offered at MDA and one other hospital.  The doctor actually encouraged us to get second opinions at CTRC in San Antonio, so Ryan has an appointment there, but we are pretty sure we will stick with this plan.  From what we have all heard, MDA has the most to offer...especially patients with stage four cancer.     

Back to treatment options:

In the next few weeks, Ryan will begin an IL2 (InterLeukin 2).  This is an extremely aggressive treatment that will require Ryan to remain at MDA in ICU while he receives the treatment.  Fortunately, that will only be for 5 days at a time.  Then, he gets a 3-4 week break before returning to the hospital for another round.  Those 5 days will not be easy, though.  This medication will cause Ryan's blood vessels to seep, pain, nausea, and 30-40 pounds of water weight gain each time.  They have meds to give him at the end of each treatment to get rid of the water weight, but that causes stress on his kidneys.  There are also chances of stroke and cardiac arrest, but Ryan is young and those tend to occur in older patients.  All are reasons for treatment occuring in ICU under close supervision.  The doctor did say that he should start to feel  better during the weeks that he is off of the treatment...not 100% better, but he did make it sound like it will be better than what he's dealt with these last ten months.  Ryan will receive this treatment for 4-6 months, and they do all of the tests every 2 rounds to see if it is making progress.  Prognosis?  There is a 10-15% chance that the cancer will go into long-term remission with this treatment.  That's the best thing we've heard about stage four melanoma!  There is hope for Ryan!!!  They said he is young and could very possibly end up in this category.  We will pray for healing!!! 

The process for the next possible option, TILs (Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes) will actually begin before he starts the IL2 treatment.  Quick version of this treatment - they believe one of the reasons melanoma is so difficult to cure is because it's our own skin cells mutating...or something like that.  But because it's our own cells, the body's immune system does not catch it as quickly...it does't turn that cell mutating switch 'off.'  This treatment would actually involve removing the tumor in Ryan's neck and sending it to a lab to grow massive amounts of his own lymphocytes.  This takes weeks to happen which is why they will remove the tumor soon.  Once they have a desired amount of lymphocytes, they inject them all back into the body to create a 'mass attack' on the disease.  We have to pray that the lab will be able to grow adequate numbers of lymphocytes or it won't work.  After the 4-6 months of the IL2, if that does not seem to be ridding his body of the cancer, they will begin the TILs treatment. 

The last two treatments involve microbiotic-chemotherapy...I'm still not completely familiar with all of the details.  I know they involve using the biology of Ryan's cancer and attempting to create a concoction of various chemotherapy treatments to create a kind of custom treatment for Ryan.  These treatments are still very novel.  They do not have the amounts of documented success needed to use these as first step treatments, but hey - they are options!  My prayer is we won't reach this point.

So, all that being said, Ryan will be back at MDA next week for his first big consultation.  From there, they will schedule him to return a few days before the beginning of his first treatment to remove the tumor for the TILs; then he starts his first round of IL2 in ICU.  We will have to play by ear what happens after that...when he will be able to return to San Antonio, how he's feeling, what he is able to do in the weeks not receiving treatment, etc. 

As I said before, thank you so much for your prayers.  Please keep them coming!  God is good.  We don't know His plan for Ryan, or any of us for that matter, and that can be difficult at times.  What we do know, and what we can find peace and courage in, is that God does have a wonderful and amazing plan for each of us.  His love for us is beyond what we could ever imagine.  He knows our hearts.  He is capable of miracles.  He is good."

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#31) On April 24, 2009 at 1:06 AM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Herz............... Hello  Add me!!!!!!!!!

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#32) On April 24, 2009 at 10:11 AM, skeptic86 (52.74) wrote:

no chating today? what will i do?! i guess i could work.....

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#33) On April 24, 2009 at 10:14 AM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

where is everyone??

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#34) On April 24, 2009 at 10:28 AM, jimmybroderick (32.79) wrote:

not sure miss.  guess the room isn't open today or yet

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#35) On April 24, 2009 at 11:26 AM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

ait, Ryan, Sister; Skip the San Antonio (been there, done that)- waste no energy spreading around the focus. Use the time that would have taken to do something lovely and wonderful together, resting assured that you are being cared for by the best- stick with the MDA team-don't waste precious energy chasing-stay focused and be present.

Peace, prayers, and a smile for the way you all have gotten on the stick. Ryan, you are a lucky son of a son of a sailor to have that together sister at your side.

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#36) On April 24, 2009 at 4:47 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart Update:

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#37) On April 25, 2009 at 11:26 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

 

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#38) On April 25, 2009 at 1:24 PM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

baitboy...

It's me missmalibu...I've been praying for your son, and for you to have courage, peace and strength.  It is my strong intuition that you should seek alternative therapy (as well as your dr. protocol outlined above).  Please know that cancer cells cannot reproduce in an oxygenated environment.  Please ....My father was saved from throat cancer, a 100 lb weight drop, loss of saliva glands from tumors etc... Was sent to die.  We turned to alternativemedicine and odd as it sounds... here is what we did and it works...drinking H2O2  (food grade..very dilluted in DISTILLED water, oxygen tube breathing, and drinking rattlesnake blood , as well as supplements of rhodiola, chlorella and msm, and krill and flaxseed oil are what we had him on.   Please check out Master Zhou immediately.  My prayers will continue.  I know time is of the essesence, and I've meant to write this for a week now.. but when I found this article today..I knew it was a confirmation..It's just TOO WEIRD that I would come across this exact thing working for someone.  I thought I should go ahead and speak to you.  May you experience this same miracle.

Is Rattlesnake a Miracle Cure?

KTLA Special Investigation

Cancer is a scary word -- especially when it's stage four.  What would you do to save your life?

One woman decided to do something drastic to win the battle against stage four cervical cancer.

Aggressive chemotherapy and radiation treatments didn't work for Phyllis Brickert. The cancer came back, so Phyllis went to Mexico... and drank rattlesnake blood.  KTLA went with her, and here's her story:

Phyllis Brickert was looking forward to a long retirement in Montana -- she had been the first female Sheriff's Deputy in Chelan County, Washington and spent 20 years on the force.   But at only 55 years old, Phyllis heard the words no woman wants to hear:  stage four cervical cancer.
  
Phyllis went through months of aggressive chemotherapy treatments along with simultaneous radiation treatments.  Those treatments nearly killed her, but they didn't kill the cancer -- a couple of months later, a CT scan showed the tumors were back.

Phyllis knew she was terminal and refused further chemotherapy, deciding in favor of quality of life over quantity.   Her oncologist told her she had about three months before the tumors would completely block her intestines.

The doctor was setting up hospice for Phyllis, and told her they would concentrate on managing the pain. 

She wasn't ready to die, but surrendered to the fact that there was nothing more she could do.  That's until a family friend suggested she go to Mexico where they use rattlesnake to treat cancer.

So Phyllis took a road trip to a remote village near Cuautla, Mexico where people drink rattlesnake blood and eat the sun-dried meat... and where just about everyone has a story about how the rattlesnake saved a loved one's life.

Phyllis admits that she "didn't think it would work."  But one morning along the way in the state of Chihuahua, she was able to buy some dried rattlesnake. 

She munched on it in the car like it was beef jerky.  And by mid-afternoon, she felt something:  "I ate the dried snake meat and within a few hours the pain was gone so I thought 'wow!' maybe this is going to work, it's doing something."

So when she got to the small village, where a small number of people live without running water or electricity, a man named Pablo told her he had two large snakes for her -- one for that day, and another for a few days later. 

As Pablo tried to pull the first large Neo-Tropical rattler from a canvas bag, the snake tried to strike.  It was scary for everyone watching, but Pablo was finally able to get the snake safely out of the bag.  He cut off the head just below the venom sacks, and quickly, they drained the blood into a glass.

The amount of blood was surprisingly small -- about a shot glass full -- and Phyllis said, "I thought here's to good health, and I drank the blood."

She said it tasted like nothing, it was "like drinking water." 

KTLA asked Tarzana based Medical Doctor Michael Hirt about the rattlesnake treatment.  He said he hadn't heard of it, but suspects the rattlesnake oxygenates the blood -- and cancer can't live in an oxygenated environment. 

Dr. Hirt says more than 90 percent of cancer patients are using some form of alternative medicine, and that it makes sense.  "We are using venoms from many different plants and animals in medicine.  We think that these venoms that we purify in western medicine and use raw in alternative medicine, like rattlesnake venom, have specific qualities that target cancer cells."

The rattlesnake certainly seemed to be working for Phyllis -- by the time she arrived in Los Angeles, she was off her pain medication completely. 

Phyllis remained in L.A., and immediately began receiving Qi Gong treatments from Master Zhou Ting-Jue.  Master Zhou says, "The goal of the treatment is to increase overall blood circulation and increase the person's immunity."

Qi (chi) means energy and refers to the life force that flows through the body.   Master Zhou uses his own Qi energy to create different levels of heat.  This, he says, is the healing energy.

"The first thing I do is replenish the person's energy, then increase blood and energy circulation, then I use a different energy projection technique to target specific organs."

Phyllis saw Master Zhou daily for three weeks -- she then returned home to Montana and had another CT scan.  The tumors were gone.

"My doctor was stunned," Phyllis says.  "And he just said I want to know what you're doing, I want to know what you're doing because you're so improved.  So I explained it to him and he said I've never heard of any of that, but keep doing it because it's working."

Phyllis says, "Before I started all this I was getting worse every day, now I'm getting better everyday."

It's been nearly six months since Phyllis doctor told her she had three months to live.  And, as far as quality of life -- when she returned home to Montana, she went cross-country skiing

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#39) On April 26, 2009 at 5:29 PM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

GV - Thanks, I hope those observations can be of some use.  I guess the problem with well-developed patterns is that by the time they are obvious, who knows how much longer they will last.  Fascinating nonetheless.

I will try to get into CIL, I saw your instructions, just haven't gotten to it yet.  Hope to see you there.

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#40) On April 27, 2009 at 12:23 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

If you missed it in CIL tonight, I found out one of my first cousins is Director of Occupational Therapy at MD Anderson in Houston. She will make sure Ryan has access to every bit of additonal support he requires while there or at home, and she can be there to support him also. Other cousins getting ready to circle the wagons. Keep the prayers flowing, it just keeps getting better for his coming battle.

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#41) On April 27, 2009 at 10:50 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

 

ENLARGE

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#42) On April 27, 2009 at 1:10 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Couple of interesting things to watch:

The Russell was the first to turn the corner for the March lows and is nearing the end of its target run -- within 10 points.

The Transports and Industrials are out of sync. 

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#43) On April 27, 2009 at 3:34 PM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

I'm posting another one of my messy charts with a ton of trend lines.  In fact, I maxed out on the number of annotations allowed.

Not that you would, but please, please, please do not trade on my comments.  I'm every bit an amateur, and I'm only pointing out some interesting observations.  I just happen to like to pick apart patterns as best I can.

This is a chart I made for Citigroup:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3625/3481104014_a97cefc022_o.png

Like I said, really messy.  But look at how the trend returned to the lower red thick line in late November of 2008, the same line it appears to have been following as early as late 2007.  It then hugs the bottom of this trend line twice in Mar 2009.  I think it really shows the power of trends (and begs questions on the pyschology of them).  Of course, being long in C, I am hoping that the thick green lines represent a major trend change.  That said, I'm only betting a small(er) portion of my portfolio on it.   

Perhaps the thick green lines just represent one of these temporary inverse slope reversals that you can see repeatedly (sometimes small moves, sometimes larger).  Maybe the trend cuts from one side of the red channels to the other, like is common.  And then picks a different trend to follow for awhile.

I find it fascinating trying to pick out the trends and I think its very interesting to see trends buried within trends.  Perhaps the different trends relate to investors with different strategies, time periods or goals.  On different days, different ones prevail.

The point is that I feel like at least I know some of the historical bounds and when I see reversals, hopefully it gives me some insight as to where things could go.  At least I feel like I'm hoping for somewhere other than "up".  And if those bounds are broken, at least I'm aware of it.  As a side note, I would say that if the price shot up to one of these lines, it is very likely to reflect off at an inverse angle.  In that case, I would definitely look at trading out and possibly back in after the consolidation clears.  Or, sit tight knowing that the trend reversal is most likely temporary and likely to reverse again.

Another way to look at it is to compare it to a topographical map.  No one can predict where the price action will go - but, perhaps you can know whether it's going towards an impassable river, or a grassy plains, a mountain, or an avalanch field.

By the way, for my two cents, I really want to agree with the sentiment that we're headed for a big dip (10%/S&P790), but charts of individual stocks, I'm having a hard time finding it.  Of course, I haven't looked at all 500 stocks.  I do see a lot of room for stalling - basically moving up on green lines and then breaking down to parallel channels.  Basically, riding up green channels then falling back back to the TOP side of the lower thick red line.  I would say any significant break of that lower thick red line is pretty bad news.  Sorry, I hit my limits on annotations and I'll have to delete some to show that hypothesis.

What do you guys think, is this useful or am I delusional?  I would love to see EWT laid over these charts, I'm going to give it a shot sometime this week I hope.

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#44) On April 27, 2009 at 5:22 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Now - This one, granmah, I couldn't even see it! :) So I have no comment on it but I want you to notice the MACD there is curling down and on sell now with negative Histograms. Not a very good sign for anyone long C. Hope to see you in CIL.

GoodVibe

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#45) On April 27, 2009 at 8:17 PM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

Granmah and missmalibu......do us a favor, stop polluting this blog with your crap. And stop trying to find a convincing tech analysis to support your mistakes.

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#46) On April 27, 2009 at 10:43 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Granmah and missmalibu -

Per our policy here, where we keep everything under the sun, we never censor others even those who should never laid hand on a keyboard. The Comment above from 72SIGAR is as shameful, offensive and disrespectful as it gets, it will not be reported or removed.

I went back and searched SIGAR because I knew SIGAR posted something before in this blog and it was no surprise to me that this was his comment to us before: Comment 231 

#231) On March 23, 2009 at 11:24 PM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

I think Boston Celtics Creedence Video says it all. I have been following this for the better part of a week here with you all following the Pied Piper GV. Now, back to the Fortunate Son, here was a little rinky dink third world jungle mud hole that kicked the tar out of the big bad ole's U.S. Not matter what people say the Viet Cong were some of the toughest mothers ever. With all our technological data and charts and statistics, a bunch of burrowing, poorly funded and inadequate fighting force wooped us good and hard, and it is still a sore spot. GV's charts and half of you all waiting on your Mesiah to tell you what to do tells me one thing, take your charts and stuff them. Too many variables, market inflated by hype and emotion, and no real data to correlate anything with. So, too all the warehouse workers, soccer moms, boiler room traders, and fools to be had, go back to stuffing money into your cookie jars, buy some t-bills, start up a little business selling jewerly or something. Half of you have no business being in the market. Take it from a guy who grew up on Water St. in NYC, mere blocks from Wall Street and has cousins that are VP's of banks, friends that have base salaries of 275 a year working as client advocates for major firms, a former college roomate with a 4.0 gpa and harvard grad that started his first year working from 4:30am till 11:30 the first 3 years out of school and by his third year made 685, you people are fooling yourselves, will most likely get burned and do not have the access to the information you need. I've seen it happen to much better than you. PARALYSIS DUE TO ANALYSIS

.........

You both being far advanced than SIGAR on the food chain don't need me to tell you the quality of such character that write such content and how it easily reflects the many deep psychological issues this person has. When SIGAR wrote this comment before, I ignored him as it's always the most effective way to deal with such characters but I promised Miss M. that I got her back. I want you both to know that you are welcome and appreciated. I hope such person will never win over your desire to share with us what you meant to share.

GoodVibe

......

SIGAR - Don't you think it's better to stop wasting your valuable time reading almost EVERY SINGLE word we write here, and devote some of your precious time to those V.I.P. cousins of yours, friends, and roomoates who are making it big? If you think that you are a big shot (which we don't doubt), don't you think you can put your time to better use instead of hanging around with fools such as us? I bet if you are as you say, then you will and will not have a follow up comment. It's up to you! ;)

With this I hope this find you well.

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#47) On April 27, 2009 at 11:03 PM, zloj (98.48) wrote:

GV,

How is it going so far and is the wave count still on track? The rally has overshot well past your 864.31 resistance level... 

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#48) On April 27, 2009 at 11:35 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Zloj - Didn't you see the chart update in #36 & #41 by Columbia? You have to stay with us in CIL in comment #2 to know the details but we update the charts still here in the comment section. Hope to see you there. have a good night.

GoodVibe

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#49) On April 28, 2009 at 8:56 AM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

My therapist says the same thing

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#50) On April 28, 2009 at 9:03 AM, nevercanstop (< 20) wrote:

BaitBoyInOK,

I have read your posts about Ryan with great interest.  My mother had melanoma 26 years ago and was given a 15 to 20% chance of surviving 3 years.  She had multiple surgeries, among other treatments, and lymph nodes removed at Columbia Univ. Medical Center in NY.  Thankfully, she is still alive and has not had any related problems since.  I do not have to tell you that the medical technolgy and treatments available 26 years ago do not in any way compare to the treatments available today.  I share this story because access to the best treatment, a strong/young patient, and a positive attitude can significantly increase the "percentages" that medical professionals often use.  Most people are lucky to have one of these three factors in their favor, and Ryan has all three. 

Please know that like all participants in the board, my thoughts and prayers are with Ryan and your family. 

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#51) On April 28, 2009 at 11:08 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

 

ENLARGE

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#52) On April 28, 2009 at 11:15 AM, binve (28.36) wrote:

Everybody

Good morning! Hey, sorry for not being around the last 2 weeks, but I had a great vacation. Good to have some time off and some time away from the market. I am just reading though some of these posts. Crazy market action, but all of the analysis so far is awesome! Incredible work!!

Goodvibe,

Excellent new chat room man! I will be checking it out in a minute!

Russ and anchak,

I leave for 2 weeks and you guys break the stock market while I'm gone. :) Man, that has been some crazy action. I need to start putting together some charts to evaluate.

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#53) On April 28, 2009 at 12:36 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

All,

Here is some analysis of the current trends and some possible projections. This is basically Goodvibe's interpretation of the wave count, which is right on I believe.

Enlarge

Enlarge

Enlarge

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#54) On April 28, 2009 at 1:04 PM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

Geez... That Sigar is a nasty demon.    I do what I do the way I do it because it's working.  Anything (legal) that brings in a 500k a year isn't worthy of (his) criticism.  He must be grumpy from losing his job.  Thanks GV for being the quality individual you are..                                               Successful people don't troll blogs to hate on others.  They can however, be humble enough to always be learning, increasing thier arsenal of knowledge, and kind enough to help others.         BRRRRRINg!!... Hello?  Oh Sigar, it's Hell calling..seems they're looking for you..their village idiot is missing.

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#55) On April 28, 2009 at 3:37 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Bait, somehow missing you on CIL, though I did see where you referenced an evening conversation there. Thoughts and prayers still with you, Ryan, and the rest of the family. What did the CT show?

Peace

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#56) On April 28, 2009 at 3:52 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I've been trying to get access to post in CIL...lol If anyone see's this find me on the comment section and allow me to post please.

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#57) On April 28, 2009 at 4:05 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I have to be removed as a producer and added again. I think.

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#58) On April 28, 2009 at 4:17 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Computer rebooted.... strange? I'm at home and I've been posting from work usually.. I wonder if that has anything to do with it... doubt it. I've been posting, but no one see's them.

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#59) On April 28, 2009 at 4:20 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Computer rebooted.... strange? I'm at home and I've been posting from work usually.. I wonder if that has anything to do with it... doubt it. I've been posting, but no one see's them.

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#60) On April 28, 2009 at 4:22 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Russ, try again, I can't find your comment.  Welcome back!

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#61) On April 28, 2009 at 4:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

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#62) On April 28, 2009 at 4:31 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Sorry folks.. Looks like I have a major problem getting into the chat from home. I tried everything I can think of. I just wanted to say hello to everyone and wish you all well. I will see ya tomorrow to see the end of yet another triangle choke of the fight.... good times!

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#63) On April 28, 2009 at 4:36 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Opening a new one right above your comment Russ. The old was giving a lot of people problems.

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#64) On April 29, 2009 at 12:28 AM, binve (28.36) wrote:

Everybody,

I just put together a new post: Why I am still bearish right now: A look at Oil and the S&P 500

Feel free to check it out!

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#65) On April 29, 2009 at 1:36 AM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

Nevercanstop & 123Spot - If you missed it, check my post at #40 here. No report yet from the scan. Ryan and his mother and big sister will be at MDA Thursday and Friday for follow-on appointments and updates. Certainly, if the scan showed something worse they would have let him know before now. However, if there is anything new, I know for a fact that my cousin will have it nailed down and verified. He now has, with my cousin, the VERY best advocate possible at MDA. She is a very qualified and very well versed former patient and current highly regarded employee there. Keep the prayers coming, the support just keeps increasing and we are very optomistic.

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#66) On April 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

ENLARGE

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#67) On April 29, 2009 at 11:39 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

Here is an updated count

 

ENLARGE

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#68) On April 29, 2009 at 2:43 PM, Alex1963 (97.72) wrote:

 columbia1 

I see a reverse H & S on your chart which has broken neck sugnificantly. Wouldn't that be a signal of further strendth-Dow Theory? This run/hold over the last few weeks has been so unexpected

but maybe market has decided to run. period.

Thanks

Alex 

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#69) On April 30, 2009 at 1:12 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart update - Last chance for a bear correction!

Enlarge

When the small count fails to make sense, broaden the picture. It might do the job better. I hope I can offer more than this chart and that new count but this is the only thing I am feeling comfortable to trust.

Currently, I have no direction bias unlike yesterday when I was still bearish. I will side with neutral view for now but I still have large short position. I will not press my shorts any more or add to them but will not go long either. I am in capital preservation mode until I get some edge back on the chart.

To make things straight if the above was a puzzle: I am comfy with my current shorts for now but not adding. Just bringing back all my previous and current shorts whole or making little gain on them. If I fail to do so and see imminent bullish no turning back point, I'll fall on my sword. I'll keep you posted with the outcome in either case. Sorry no current target numbers.

I hope this added value to your thinking.

GoodVibe

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#70) On April 30, 2009 at 10:37 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

This is the best case I can make for the Bears, and it is weak and being tested as I type and post it.

ENLARGE

LIVE FOR YOU BAIT

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#71) On April 30, 2009 at 11:40 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Another chart I am watching right now:

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#72) On April 30, 2009 at 12:15 PM, jimmybroderick (32.79) wrote:

GV,

My question(s) in the CIL revolve around why you decided to short when you did.  What was happening that made you want to short and do so aggresively?  I'm not saying the call is right or wrong.  Only time will tell that. 

My confusion comes from the blogs over time.  When we reached 666 you called a bottom.  You then told the folks that read your blog that they should enjoy the coming rally. 3 to 6 months was the estimated timeframe given and there were numbers you expected the rally to get to.  I forget the SPX numbers but I believe the Dow was somewhere between 9400-10300. 

Then within a few weeks you communicated that you were going short.  You talked about scale trading and showed us your bump and run, etc.  

All of this leads back to why.  Why did you call for a 3-6 month rally and then heavily short it so quickly?  I assume the answer is that nothing goes up or down in a straight line.  I agree with that.  I am trying to gauge what casued you to go short at the times you did.  The move up from 666 was too quick?  We became overbought to quickly?  More than those?  

 I ask because we seem well within the confines of your larger call, but  you seemed to be beating yourself up (in the CIL yesterday) over the smaller calls within that rally.  

Do you think your count is incorrect?  The bulls are just staying irrational longer than the count says they should?  

Feel free to respond whenever you get a chance.  Thanks for the time

Jim

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#73) On April 30, 2009 at 4:09 PM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

Updated, The count I am using still has not been invalidated, grasping at straws, read at your our risk!!

ENLARGE

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#74) On April 30, 2009 at 4:18 PM, ranger66 (< 20) wrote:

Jimmy Broderick,

I don't understand the push lower either. Without that last minute reversal snafu on the Chrysler bailout today, the market may have ended up a couple hundred points and cleared this resistance line handily. It still crossed the line but the fallback, for whatever reason, now looks bad. The worry is the counter-party suits in the BK filing and more derivatives collapsing. May be okay tomorrow but a lot of folks getting nervous for a correction. A bad correction would be the end, imo.

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#75) On May 01, 2009 at 2:17 AM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

Here are two more admittedly messy charts as I continue my chart studies: 

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3611/3490818942_4bf93ddace_b.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3607/3490815898_52d20de9ec_b.jpg

I know there are so many trend lines that it's hard to see the chart, but it is very interesting to see how repetitive some of the patterns are.  Many times, you have to draw the channel lines perfectly parallel and evenly spaced, which of course, I didn't space them quite evenly on some of these charts.  Consider it my early work as I've learned to be more precise.  They are repetitive on multiples scales too (eg. fractals etc.).  I know some of the trend lines look invalid, but if you look closely, you can see how the price action does react to them.  For instance, even when the price action crosses the line, it will often come back to touch it from the other side before moving on.  That can give you some clues as to where things are going.  More imporantly, I can spot violations of trend lines that seem to have some predictive value too.

Anyway, the gist of the charts is that the steeper the channel, the shorter it holds.  But one important observation is that most of the "upward diagonals" and triangles actually stay confined within parallel channels, the diagonal is just a trending towards one side of the channel.  Often, the upward diagonals that resolve to the downside head down to the other side of that parallel channel.  If the price cuts through that trend line, then comes back up to touch it, well, a lot of times it plunges from there. 

Anyway, I see some value to being able to bound my potential gains and losses, but I'm still trying to figure out how to turn these observations into my crystal ball.  Or maybe not.  But nonetheless, I post these observations in case they might help provide some insight into the possible (or not very likely) wave formations.

One other thing to note is how persistant the trend lines can be.  I can still see reactions to trend lines from 2 years ago that are long gone unless you really zoom out.  Sometimes I'll see a major day-to-day change in price action only to zoom out and find that I didn't see a major trend line.  Another thing to note is that we seem to have crossed the thick purple line that connects several reaction lows without a flinch.  I guess that's good news...

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#76) On May 01, 2009 at 2:19 AM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

Oh, by the way, as for that late day downturn, we seem to have bounced off the upper bollinger band again.  You can see it in the first of the two charts I posted.  I obviously can't say what the long term trend will be, but it seems to be a pretty normal short term reaction.

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#77) On May 01, 2009 at 10:26 AM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

I cleaned up one of my charts (relatively speaking) to better show the major trend lines that seem to be governing the bounds of the price action.  Several major ones, especially the thick purple line that shows so much affinity over such a long time period, have been broken.  History shows the strong affinity for these lines, and how they get tested.  When they are strongly broken, there is often an equal and opposite reversal.  Perhaps we more or less drifted over the purple line and will ride down on top of it for a little while until the market gets comfortable being on that side of the line. 

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3402/3490748273_970c7889ef_b.jpg

That said, several of my stocks appear to be seriously at risk of short squeeze in the next day or two.  Stocks like C and AIG have gone from 10-20% short float to almost zero in this month, hence some of the big price moves.  Of course, with the squeeze over, maybe C will drift down now that no normal person wants it, and there are no more shorts to drive demand.  Anyway, I'm looking at MWA and AKAM for short squeezes, both have high short ratios and just broke key resistances.  It makes me wonder how many other stocks are still like that.  RIMM looks like it might be closing an enormous gap upwards. 

Upwards again?

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#78) On May 01, 2009 at 10:46 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

This is an updated look at the week. WARNING- this is currently looking like an impulse wave and should be viewed as one until(if) we break 861.24 validating a corrective style wave. Wave 4 needs to enter wave 1 for the bears.

WARNING-  I am only playing around with these counts and they should never be used for trading purposes.

Green counts are Bullish

Blue counts are Bearish

ENLARGE

LIVE

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#79) On May 01, 2009 at 4:38 PM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

Gv....Sorry......This morning Ameritrade crashed and I didn't have the normal morning.  All times I put up in CIL quickly....They were extremely spot on today..Just check them against the S&P intraday chart.  They are all in the threads from this mornng.  Will try and post more on Sunday or premarket monday.

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#80) On May 03, 2009 at 10:28 AM, crystlz (40.14) wrote:

columbia,

It seems like we are pretty much on the same page. The trend lines in the up channel have held up remarkably well. IMHO we are going to have to make a definitive break to the downside before we can call off this upward trend. It doesn't appear that the news will drive us down, the upward momentum apparantly has a life of it's own. If this uptrend continues much further it will invalidate my count but I am not attached to any count at this point.

Just my .02.

ENLARGE 

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#81) On May 03, 2009 at 11:30 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Roy has posted a number of new vids. He's calling for a couple more days of rally before a clear signal will be in place for a downtrend that could churn for several months before the rally returns in earnest. His comments about the Russell 2000 are very interesting.

DOW: http://www.viddler.com/explore/RoySi/videos/114/

SPX, FTSE100: http://www.viddler.com/explore/RoySi/videos/115/

NDX 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000: http://www.viddler.com/explore/RoySi/videos/116/ 

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#82) On May 04, 2009 at 12:17 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Crystlz -

Same count was done by others and it's simple break of the rule 4 should never enter 1. Your count is invalid.

Grandma -

Thanks for your posts and charts. May I suggest after you draw your lines and figure out which one are current and important, try to start a new chart where you eliminate the rest and keep those which you believe to be of important value. The cheer numbers of lines you draw no matter they make sense will lessen their value. You have many lines and some of them will hit something and you will start seeing in the chart more than it's there.

Miss M -

Try to post your numbers here in this comments' section for those who don't follow CIL closely. I am one who don't during the day. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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#83) On May 04, 2009 at 6:54 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

How are all the "top of the rally" callers going? Too bad you're all missing out on profits of this nice little rebound while looking in the rearvision mirror!

Although you all feel hungover, the rest of the world isn't still drunk.

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#84) On May 04, 2009 at 7:34 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#85) On May 04, 2009 at 9:27 AM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

Market support 856, resistance 883.50...any break above 883.50 is very bullish.  Mercury nearing a retrograde ....look for fake out break outs..sharp and fast.  Mercury is the trickster.  This week is a work up to a full moon at week ends..usually a market rises into a full moon.  We just may have one more week of  an uptrened, before the pullback we are looking for.  Today will break out of last fridays range, Watch for 1:30 and 12:41 PST especially. 

monday times to watch for market turns in direction, surges/decelerations of a trend, are... 6:48, 7:08*,7:16,7:40,8:00*, 8:21, 8:57*, 9:13*,9:54, 10:04*, 10:32***, 10:56,11:49*, 11:59, 12:41**,1:04*    PST       Remember...some of these times will be the end of the previous move.  At end of day you match up the action to the S&P intraday chart..realize that IF they come in a  bit late..its still a winner if it gave the trader time to get in the position for the following move, and he or she was able to capture it!!!!  Friday's times were 100% accurate in this regard. Two times nailed the highs and lows of the day!   Happy trading, and remember.. we are in a month+ remaining cycle of bullishness BUT BIG pullback next week ..more negative energy and mercury full IN the retrograde at that point. This week might be a lower volume topping process. Best shot for a down day of this week..today, wed,and friday..nothing extreme...next week for that.

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#86) On May 04, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Helgaki (< 20) wrote:

missmalibu: thank you

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#87) On May 04, 2009 at 10:08 AM, missmalibu (< 20) wrote:

correction..typo.. 'Watch for 10:30, and 12:41 PST especially"

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#88) On May 04, 2009 at 10:35 AM, binve (28.36) wrote:

missmalibu, thanks for the info and the work!

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#89) On May 04, 2009 at 11:14 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

ENLARGE

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#90) On May 04, 2009 at 12:29 PM, grandmah2 (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe -

Thank you for your comments.  Can I suggest that my entire point is that all of those lines are important.  You really have to look in detail to see (I'm not sure what resolution I'm posting, perhaps it's hard to see, I'll have to check), but they are all very important.  It helps that most of them are parallel, which perhaps could simplify things a bit.

The devil really is in the details.  The price action can follow any one of those lines, but the fact is that those lines appear to be very well established.  I have no idea how they are established, but I did see an advertisment on TV last night for a trading program where you can trade directly off of the charts.  In other words, you draw the line, and the trading program will make the trade for you when it hits the line.  You don't work in hard numbers for your stops, you work in drawn lines.  People must be using that type of trading, because it is very apparent in the details.

Anyway, I think there are two important observations.  First, price action has an "affinity" for the lines.  In other words, in all time frames, the price "likes" to come back to those lines.  So it can give you some insight as to where the price might be attracted next (depending on it's past affinity for a given line).  Second, it can tell you how far the trend is from itself.  If the price is far away from a trend, is it going to come back?  Is it following a new trend?  Have you crossed another Rubicon?  Maybe it's not your Rubicon (not directed at GV, I mean each person's "Rubicon" of risk tolerance), but maybe it's someone else's Rubicon.  I think I need to know where those major concensus Rubicons are so that you know if you're coming up to an important juncture.  Otherwise, it's kind of like not seeing the forest for the trees.

One thing I can assert with confidence is that the price rarely establishes a completely new trend.  Look at the lines I've drawn, and then look back one or two or three years.  Look carefully and you'll see that same parallel slope (up or down) repeated over and over, at all scales, just like fractals.  It's my belief that the rate (slope) stocks go up or down is fairly constant - the direction is determined only by the balance (or imbalance) of supply and demand.

To better interpret those admittedly numerous lines, I look at two things.  First, I look at the strength of the past affinity.  It's like a magnet, some of those lines are very strong.  Even once the price crosses over, it's often attracted back to the other side of the line until everyone decides to continue forward or revert.  Second, I look at how well the lines have been "respected".  If you see lots of little breaks, or perhaps one large temporary break of a line, it can be a clue.  Either it's not (or is no longer) a strong line, or people are itching to cross it.  That said, I will say that my observations are that about 2/3 of the time, the "disrespect" of the line is in favor of its future tendency.  However, a good 1/3 of the time, its a fake.  It gets crossed, then people sell out on strength, leading to a reversal.  So be aware and watch closely.

I mean no disrespect to EWT, but lately, I'm not finding it very insightful.  Lots of time spent guessing the most likely wave count, and then it just begs what's next, which is often completely various scenarios.  I am an aspiring very part time swing trader, and given my limited time, I'm finding my technique to be quite productive at the moment.  I sure hope I don't jinx myself saying that, but seeing that this blog has helped me quite a bit, I am trying to share my own observations to contribute to this group.

Here's three examples, I sure hope they are high enough resolution:

DOW

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3625/3501427270_c60cb21511_b.jpg

S&P

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3645/3501514932_5e5c99e122_b.jpg

ISRG: I hold this position and really hope I don't jinx myself - but I think it's a good example.  The reason I draw the parallel lines over and over is to determine how persistant they are.  Also, it helps me work out a "best fit" for the best precision.  Sometimes, if you just connect peaks and valleys, the lines aren't parallel.  But if you draw a truly parallel line, fit it the best you can, and then look closer, you'll see strong reactions at those points where the line doesn't quite appear to fit.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3589/3500717045_7f57d0849a_b.jpg

Anyway, it's food for thought.

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#91) On May 04, 2009 at 12:53 PM, anchak (99.76) wrote:

#89) On May 04, 2009 at 11:14 AM, columbia1

Perfect matching count to mine ......

I am counting 867  as a possible end of iv ...... given today's action - which is extremely 3rd wave like.....

899 is end of 3 of v.

Target end of v around 910-920 max. ( 2 Fibs around this range).

 

 

 

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#92) On May 04, 2009 at 1:04 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

I agree with both of you Columbia and anchak as a "possible wave ending" but the count doesn't make sense to me so far. I want to see more data on the chart to make good sense of this.

FWIW - I couldn't help but start a position @ SMN and FXP as well as short common JCP and ARO to add to retail short collection. I did this @ 895 - 897 when we started approaching the upper channel you also following. RIMM also on my target.

Current 895

GoodVibe

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#93) On May 04, 2009 at 1:31 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Bait, How did Ryan's appointments thur. and Fri. go? Prayers continue. Peace

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#94) On May 04, 2009 at 1:54 PM, binve (28.36) wrote:

GoodVibe and All,

For what its worth, here is the count I am carrying. The short term is based on columbia1 count. But the point is the move the last 2 weeks has been very corrective. I think it is a B wave, possibly withing a large B wave. And per the book: "Wave Bs are phonies". This is has a very phony feel to me. I believe this move up is about to end very soon.

The projection on the larger chart below is something I am playing with. Don't read too much into it. The only thing that I wish to illustrate with it is the fact that Wave A (or 1) was very overextended, which means that Wave B (or 2) is almost guaranteed to NOT be simple. In fact, I believe we are going to get a lot of headfakes and sideways moves before the rally continues in earnest.

Enlarge

Enlarge

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#95) On May 04, 2009 at 3:57 PM, biotechmgr (99.57) wrote:

OK now I know that although you may be an elliott wave wanna be you clearly don't have the socionomic handle on it and the read on optimism and pessimism. The dramatic reversal is months away as the mood has changed, and your call was so wrong I can't believe it has 79 Recs.

SPX 904 and counting all your losses and my IRL gains.

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#96) On May 04, 2009 at 4:17 PM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

I can only imagine the amount of people who have visited this blog and lost thousands while setting positions that they hoped would occur based on the quackery that has been occuring on this site. If I was a fool and would have ever set positions according to any of these charts I would have lost tens of thousands instead of having th ebest run up since 97 4 me. Technical Analysis is just one fundamental piece to an over all huge puzzle. In this market, you have to throw the play book out the window, take a strong position, make a move and get out quick. Look at trading stocks, that trade everyday, week, etc within a certain range, set your position. You do not need to trade everyday, but when you do, make it count. Trade the market you are in, not the market you want to be in. But seriously, this blog is very damaging and really doesn't hold much creedence in a corrective market, your guess is as good as the best in the biz. Tomorrow there may be a retraction, who knows, and if there is, I'll ride 1 or two down for the day, and set a positon to ride 1 or 2 on the up swing. My original Comment: 

I think Boston Celtics Creedence Video says it all. I have been following this for the better part of a week here with you all following the Pied Piper GV. Now, back to the Fortunate Son, here was a little rinky dink third world jungle mud hole that kicked the tar out of the big bad ole's U.S. Not matter what people say the Viet Cong were some of the toughest mothers ever. With all our technological data and charts and statistics, a bunch of burrowing, poorly funded and inadequate fighting force wooped us good and hard, and it is still a sore spot. GV's charts and half of you all waiting on your Mesiah to tell you what to do tells me one thing, take your charts and stuff them. Too many variables, market inflated by hype and emotion, and no real data to correlate anything with. So, too all the warehouse workers, soccer moms, boiler room traders, and fools to be had, go back to stuffing money into your cookie jars, buy some t-bills, start up a little business selling jewerly or something. Half of you have no business being in the market. Take it from a guy who grew up on Water St. in NYC, mere blocks from Wall Street and has cousins that are VP's of banks, friends that have base salaries of 275 a year working as client advocates for major firms, a former college roomate with a 4.0 gpa and harvard grad that started his first year working from 4:30am till 11:30 the first 3 years out of school and by his third year made 685, you people are fooling yourselves, will most likely get burned and do not have the access to the information you need. I've seen it happen to much better than you. PARALYSIS DUE TO ANALYSIS

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#97) On May 04, 2009 at 4:51 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

72Sigar,

How about making some of those money enriching picks on your CAPs profile?  It would add a little bit more credibility to your comments.

This has been the best month in my life as well.  Stops are still lose.  This is called the "fear of missing out".  Yes, we are over shooting. Yes, we will correct at some point. Calling when without fundamentals or a clear trend means possibly missing out at best (losing at worse).  To me the TA has tremendeous value when used on individual stocks and when the trend gets set.  A few sectors have been very good to me after the trend was set. I missed a day or two up, and I might lose an extra day or two on the down as I try to max the ride. 

I believe GV and others talked about letting a trend get established, using FIB's, etc. You might miss out on a few days of up or down depending on the direction of the market, but calling a retreat before it has been established appears to me to be the wrong use of TA.  TA in long legs is great. If you are calling for a 5-10% correction, however, before it can be established it is mostly over.   Betting on a small correction does not seem worthwhile to me, but everyone has their plan and trades and as GV says, HAVE a plan, and stick to it. If you are trading off GV's blogs that are trying to teach us TA without a plan, then you are asking for trouble.

I'm still hand picking individual stocks. Riding the financials as long as they want to play. I don't think the stress test is going to hurt them, but a market looking for any excuse to run up is also a market that can use any excuse to run down.

Good luck, long and short.  Watch your stops, book your gains, don't bet the rent money.  HAVE a plan!

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#98) On May 04, 2009 at 4:55 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

PS.  Are you "wishing" what you "want" to happen into your charts???  Think twice before answering.

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#99) On May 04, 2009 at 5:53 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

it's so sad, they always show up at all the wrong times with a truckload of attitude yet missed play.

Thanks to GV, we all caught the bottom and enjoyed a great "cheese party" which we have enjoyed to this moment.

The issue now is when it's logical to hold another party and the charting is far more fun then place cards at a table in a room without a view.

Stop back and enjoy the party but please don't bring any more attitude. You're making yourselves look really "foolish". :) 

Best to  drummnutt, biotechmgr, 72SIGAR, and TSIF

IIcx 

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#100) On May 04, 2009 at 6:39 PM, 72SIGAR (< 20) wrote:

This is really funny, did you really need a chart to tell you that you were at the bottom in March. One doesn't need a chart if they jump off a building and land face first to find out they hit bottom!  I have a casual friend that owns a poster shop in NYC, he has a 100K sitting around doing nothing, he has a financial planner that is telling him to wait till we hit a bottom. If that dummy put 30K and picked up BAC with me at 4.16 and sold it the last time it hit over 8 and not even 13 he'd be sitting on a 30k profit. Hey, I'll be sure to refer him to GODDVIBE, maybe he'll tell him when we hit bottom!! HA HA HA

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#101) On May 04, 2009 at 6:55 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

llcx, I'm missing your point, it's very contradictive.  The blogs are moved and restarted constantly. I think you will find that my posts have remained consistant. I'm for TA, I'm for trends, but I'm not for predicting a trend that isn't established, especially in these positions when the least bit of fundamentals takes a swipe at you. In a trend the fundamentals are less important, but until one is established then I think Mr. Market can have more reign.

  Each person needs their own plan. You can get max gain if you can call it at exactly the right point, and I don't fault people for trying if they have money available at high risk.  I prefer to watch for the trends and let them get established. I might miss out on gains, but I tend to think that the loses are minimized, especially if you consider the trading fees and cost of the churn.

In the short run, while you are looking for the trend to be established, don't miss the individual opportunities.  As GV has reminded us, trading is more than FAS, FAZ, TNA, etc. 

At any rate, enjoy your cheese, I'll have some crackers with mine and I will watch out for the spilled whine..

Good luck. 

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#102) On May 04, 2009 at 7:40 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Blasted CAPS ate my post again... this is why I prefer the chat.. Anywho. I thought I would post this to referance. If we break the resistance tomorrow and hold I would be very shocked, but will not panic. Just a new prespective of this bull market. I'm thinking off-loading towards the support lines but I'm not going long, I will hold cash.

Enlarge

Binve~ Interesting count. I really like the second one... I love the different view points that this community brings together.

Speaking of different view points...

72Sigar~ Big wet kiss coming your way brother!

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#103) On May 04, 2009 at 7:56 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

great luck to all and TSIF stated the issue best -- "Each person needs their own plan".

Plan and share in the nature of the game and enjoy drawing on table cloths and napkins in a room with a view from many windows.

Best, IIcx 

 

 

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#104) On May 04, 2009 at 10:05 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

They won't always let me out of my straight jacket, I have to find creative ways to escape, but they usually do let me keep my window view as it seems to calm me.  If only these bars didn't get in the way of counting the cuckoo birds.  Time to swipe another ink pen from the guards, I have a fresh supply of napkins hide and some more escape plan ideas to draft.  Maybe they will let me back out into the garden.

Seriously IIcx, very nice comment.  The sharing of ideas is the best way to grow, both this country and ourselves. If people had paid attention to Di Vinci then man could have flown centuries sooner.

Best to you,

TSIF

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#105) On May 04, 2009 at 10:23 PM, RootnToot (41.23) wrote:

Russ,

The health department gives rabies shots for free. Sounds like you're going to need 'em!!  ;-)

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#106) On May 04, 2009 at 10:38 PM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

GV, Binve, Russ, Columbia

Since everyone's interest in astrology is peaked right now I thought it prudent to give the details of 2 major configurations to shed some light on the wave count and give all something to observe.

Starting May 1st. we have a very positive aspect in Mercury retrograde trine the U.S. 2nd house of money, personal wealth,banks, financial institutions, material resources.  This aspect May1-10 very positive.

We also have Jupiter trine Neptune and Jupiter sextile Mercury.  I do not think the market is going to go down but continue to go up.  I think there are a lot of resources being poured back into the market.

The only negative influence that I know of at this time is May 28-June 10 when Mercury goes direct @ 22 degrees Tuarus in the US 9th house.  This could create a "yank" or surprise in banking or finance.

Just for your observation.

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#107) On May 04, 2009 at 10:52 PM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

123Spot, et al: Ryan's current situation and for follow on tracking can be found here: http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/ryangregory"

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#108) On May 04, 2009 at 11:40 PM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

72SIGAR - Sleep well, tonight, my child. May you NEVER, EVER have to endure this. God bless you , and keep you and yours. They will need it.

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#109) On May 05, 2009 at 12:43 AM, c0ld (< 20) wrote:

Kstarich, has this worked for you in the past?

 

 

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#110) On May 05, 2009 at 10:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Good Morning fellas!

Another day of gain or pain depend on which side you stand. Stay positive! It doesn't help to be negative especially when your positions are also in the negative. If you're up, congratulation! Never let it go to your head. Stay humble or the market will do it for you.

Below is a count under consideration but not final yet.



Enlarge

As you know my current policy is to preserve capital. I missed many opportunities that I predicted since I picked up the bottom but failed to trade it correctly and optioned to swing to the bear side in the middle of the journey and we all know the results of that decision. No regret for there's no rewards without risk. Since my faulty analysis and trading after we crossed 804, I lost large amount of my gains for the year and a lot of my emotional capital in the process. I still have a good chance to recover all these paper loss and recover all my gains but I will keep the following statement engraved in my brain while trading in the next two weeks:

Capital preservation is the first step towards prolonged profitability.

I hope this added value to your thinking. Wish me fortune for I wish one as well.

GoodVibe

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#111) On May 05, 2009 at 10:55 AM, jddubya (60.47) wrote:

GV - thanks sooooo much for reporting your results.  You've maintained a consistent method and attitude towards the community.

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#112) On May 05, 2009 at 3:06 PM, arboretum (30.35) wrote:

GV - also many thanks for your chart. We have been stuck in this channel for SO LONG now, I too have been short for a little while (less than you) but now also feeling the pain. The bottom of the channel is now up to 870 or so, so if we are to revisit it before a breakout to the upside there is not a lot to be gained from being short.

My question is when will your risk / reward balance tip - breakout to the upside or retreat to the bottom of the channel?

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#113) On May 05, 2009 at 4:39 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

Russ, don't do it!  They haven't proven that you can't catch swine flu from doing that....... 

I wish you great fortune GV and appreciate your analysis. You can't win if you don't play. Some play harder than others and risk more, and that is our makeup.  Plan and then conviction, I appreciate your teachings.  Only by trying, sometimes failing and sometime winning can we truly learn.

TSIF

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#114) On May 05, 2009 at 4:51 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

The rally on Monday supposedly occurred because of short covering and fund balancing. From what I've seen, they are aggressively going after some of the Dry Bulk group.

Volume looks to be pretty light and Europe isn't exactly a barn burner after the May Day vacations.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Thanks for the chart GV. 

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#115) On May 05, 2009 at 7:40 PM, TSIF (98.76) wrote:

Morning trading is usually the retail investor, afternoon trading is usually the trading houses. Monday was up before the housing data and rallied up from there.  IT appears to me that the major players are still buying.  There is still too much of Mr. Market listening to the analysts.  With their track record I find it amazing that the analysts get that much response.   I don't see a lot of trading being short covering as options aren't due for two more weeks. I am learning to look for stocks with large option action that have had good movement.  There is temporary gains to be mined during the covers, but it doesn't usually last.  Good luck.

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#116) On May 05, 2009 at 10:32 PM, BaitBoyinOK (< 20) wrote:

123Spot, et al: If and when you go to Ryan's site at http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/ryangregory please sign in on the guestbook page and leave him a prayer, your good thoughts, your good wishes under your nickname here and let him know that BaitBoyinOK sent you. He knows his Daddy under all my guises! Just let him know that there are good people out in the world that want him to live a good, long life and to be healthy.

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#117) On May 06, 2009 at 2:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

              .............. Notice ............

This post is closed. Don't add comments here.

New post is here. Please make relevant comments on this blog and use the new CIL for the chat stuff. I want to keep this post more professional with few comments for future reference. And don't forget, I challenged you to Rec that most awaited post to all time high. How would I know that I add some value to your thinking? That said, If you want to kick me to the side curb and save my time, please don't Rec!

GoodVibe

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