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salvadorveiga (73.09)

I'm calling it... BULL MARKET

Recs

7

May 29, 2009 – Comments (18) | RELATED TICKERS: IFN , TTM

...in India of course.

 Those who know me, know that I'm super Bearish long term for European and US indices, but not so much for southeast asian countries.

 

About 2 months ago I entered in the India market because I believed we were in the start of a big secular bull market.

 

According to Elliott Wave Theory the fact the we didn't make new lows in March, and that the lows of this bear market didn't intersect the high of the previous wave, make it very very solid that we are indeed in a Bull market in India.

 

The fact that it jumped 19% in a single day a couple weeks ago, makes me believe even more we're in a Bull market. Everything adds up...

 

I'm expecting the Sensex to go somewhere between 40,000-55,000 in the next 7 years more or less before a simple Bear market can commence.

 

Here's my long term view in the Indian market:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SgzNL3uWIeI/AAAAAAAAAQE/tqgS4dQ7NKc/s1600/snsex.PNG

 

We're not even in the middle of our way to Wave 1.

 

_Now today, those in MDP know that simple indicator I introduced to them...well take a look:

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Sh_cMzn4f_I/AAAAAAAAAR8/bu_zMYWJea8/s1600/india.PNG

 

It just reversed to +1, meaning one more confirmation of a bull market.

 

Remember this simple indicator is the one that beat the S&P more than 3-to-1.

 

I started my investment in India with a good solid chunk of capital and from since I've been adding monthly amounts.

 Usually I also allocate 10-20% of my profits from other investments to the indian market.

 

Best,

 

Sal

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 29, 2009 at 9:51 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

wow, sensex at 3000 in 2003, sensex at 100000 in 2016. That would be an average (nominal) return of ca 31%/y.

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#2) On May 29, 2009 at 9:52 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

ca 31%/y.

ca. 31% p.a..

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#3) On May 29, 2009 at 10:36 AM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

Hey portefeuille, welcome first of all

 

For those that started their investment in 2003 yes...

 

Interesting times are coming, and I think the Indian market will be probably one of the best performers... 

 

No no, not 100,000 in 2016. I think in 20126 may be the top of [3] and then a simple bear market would occur...

 According to Elliott Wave Theory it may be a triangle by the alternating rule between waves 2 and 4.

 

So it may be a triangle much alike we had in the Dow in the 70's.

 

I think the top of wave [5] where 100 000- 110 000 points are, would complete in around 15-20 years more or less... 

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#4) On May 29, 2009 at 11:53 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

No no, not 100,000 in 2016. I think in 20126 may be the top of [3] and then a simple bear market would occur...

I was just trying to read your chart (this one).

To me it looks like 100000 at the end of 2016.

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#5) On May 29, 2009 at 12:04 PM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

where do you see a date on that chart?

 

since each leg up is only a copy of the first leg pretty much and the first leg took from 2002 to 2008, six years...

 

then the top of wave 3 is to expect at least also 6 years, so [3] will be around 2015 at around 40,000-50,000 level...

 

then another 6-7 years for the final rise to play out... 

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#6) On May 29, 2009 at 12:13 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

where do you see a date on that chart?

Well, I just looked at that chart and a chart of the sensex that does have a time scale. The vertical lines in your chart are the beginning/end of years. Maybe the scale (for the time-axis) breaks down after 2009 in your chart. That would be very confusing though ...

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#7) On May 29, 2009 at 12:31 PM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

Well, I just looked at that chart and a chart of the sensex that does have a time scale. The vertical lines in your chart are the beginning/end of years. Maybe the scale (for the time-axis) breaks down after 2009 in your chart. That would be very confusing though ...

 

Really don't take that into account because I took a print screen of a normal chart and then just drew the overall trend...it was made on paint, it was mainly to show the idea so don't give importance to the dotted vertical lines... 

 

Hope that clears it out.... :)

 

100,000 points in 15-20 years from now 

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#8) On May 29, 2009 at 12:59 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

okay

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#9) On May 29, 2009 at 1:34 PM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

do you happen to know or know a way to find the companies in NYSE that are ADR's from the Indian Stock Exchange?

 

Like TTM and such ? Would really like a list... so I can play them on CAPS 

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#10) On May 29, 2009 at 1:44 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

have a look at this ...

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#11) On May 29, 2009 at 1:47 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

and at this for all of them, not just indian ones ...

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#12) On May 29, 2009 at 3:16 PM, hhasia (63.85) wrote:

Hi Sal

 

Well done. Have any luck finding the mutual funds for India, and Indonesia?

Indonesia is up 30% since April 9...... Long term better than India IMHO

HH(Aka Toozle)

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#13) On May 29, 2009 at 3:22 PM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

hhasia, I'm in general southeast funds, and ETF's for indian market... i agree that indonesia may have a good long term outlook but in my opinion India promises to be a better long term, this is due to the wave structure of each market

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#14) On May 29, 2009 at 3:47 PM, NYCFOOLIO (39.72) wrote:

for anyone on here - what are some of the south east funds you like or think we perform well for the long term...

 any thoughts on any of these:

 http://seekingalpha.com/article/30121-single-country-asia-etfs-etns-and-closed-end-funds

 

thanks

 

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#15) On June 04, 2009 at 4:45 PM, lam0909 (< 20) wrote:

Added IFN first thing this morning - up today quite nicely. 

Like green grass in spring . . . so easy on the eyes after a long white winter. 

 Sal, how's Gold Digging coming??  Be sure to let us know when that's ready to launch. 

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#16) On June 04, 2009 at 4:54 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

Those who know me, know that I'm super Bearish long term for European and US indices, ...

have a look at one European index in comment #120 here ...

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#17) On June 07, 2009 at 6:22 PM, japoliveira (< 20) wrote:

Hi Salvador.

 

 I will for sure follow your reviews on the indian sensex market, as I already do in Caldeirão for the S&P :)

 

Do you think that if the S&P starts plunging again, the sensex index won't follow that decline trend? What would possibly hold it? Are we really ready to start talking about complete decoupling between the Indian and the USA economics?

 

I have no problem with India being bull (actually I have some money invested on a fund from more than one year...loosing as you can imagine). I'm just wondering when would it be reliable to enter again. Maybe when the S&P starts wave C of this bear market rally?

 

Thanks for the attention.

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#18) On June 10, 2009 at 10:20 AM, NYCFOOLIO (39.72) wrote:

Very Interesting article

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE5591EW20090610

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