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anticitrade (99.48)

5 stocks I bought today (real money)

Recs

19

June 03, 2009 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: GRT , KNDL , WCC

WCC, JAKK, KNDL, GRT, SBN

WCC: Wesco International (Electrical Equipment) Current price 29.51, and I value them at about 45.  I like this company because:

They remained profitable during the first quarter of 2009.  A little over a year ago they were priced at 45.  I would have loved to have bought them at 13 (March 9th, 2009), but I think they still have a lot of potential for big growth in the next year.

JAKK: Jakks Pacific (Toys)  Current price is 12.96, and I value them at about 24.8.  I like this company because:

I think toy sales will pick up through this summer (just a feeling).

KNDL: Kendle International (Healthcare Research Services) Current price 12.27, and I value them at about 23.  I like this company because:

Their price was cut by more than half after the announced that they would not meet earnings expectations.  I think that cut was extreme and they will make a substantial part of that back in the next few months.

GRT: Glimcher Realty Trust (REIT) Current price 2.72, and I value them at about 7.07.  I like this company because:

Historically, I have avoided Reits...  However, the potential payoff for this one seems to good to pass up.  I like their presense in malls and shopping centers.

SBN: Softbrands, Inc. (Business Application software) Current price .39, and I value them at about .74.  I like this company because:

They have performed well during the first quarter of 2009 and I think that their price should not have moved with the market to the extent that it did.

Obviously, a lot of this picks are very risky and I have rather poor non-analytical reasons for picking them.  However, I think the potential upside justifies the investment.  What do you think?

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 03, 2009 at 2:42 PM, TaylorStroh (94.81) wrote:

I would like to know if you have done some balance sheet research at all, debt of these companies growth ext. i know you could just look it up on this site, its simple to do so, also how are you valuing these stocks? Looking deep or just a overall scan?

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#2) On June 03, 2009 at 3:42 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

My model forecasts the next 5 years for all components of their income statement and balance sheet.  I use this to see if there are any dangerous trends in any aspect of their financial statements.  In the end my system produces 10 different prices for each stock.  Some of these are simple prices based of earnings ratios; others look a lot deeper into the financial statements.  I use these 10 prices to find a single conservative estimation for what the fundamental price of the companies stock should be (that’s a pretty simplistic explanation).

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#3) On June 03, 2009 at 3:50 PM, LongTermBull (91.27) wrote:

I just took a quick glance at their fundamentals...

WCC - More debt than I would like to see, but they have a good history of FCF generation.

JAKK - I like, but don't love, this company.  I think they may be slightly undervalued right now.

KNDL - Doesn't look undervalued to me and their debt is pretty high.

GRT - The kind of stock I stay away from.

SBN - Doesn't look bad, could be a good value.

Again, these opinions were formed on very quick (5 minutes) research of the fundamentals so don't take it as gospel. 

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#4) On June 03, 2009 at 3:52 PM, mikecart1 (98.18) wrote:

WCC - rank #35

JAKK - rank #22

KNDL - rank #25

GRT - rank #2

SBN - rank #20

How come you didn't pick 5 with higher rankings?  Just curious.  You seem to know a lot about the market.

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#5) On June 03, 2009 at 4:10 PM, jakebet (< 20) wrote:

SoftBrands Inc: Insider Trading

The following transactions were listed on a Form 4 document filed with the SEC.

Transaction Detail back to Transactions OverviewNameHUNT JOHN BTitleDirectorRemaining Shares2 MilTrade Date12/31/08TransactionPurchaseQuantity2 MilPrice$0.42Value$817,777.81

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#6) On June 03, 2009 at 4:12 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Good question Mike.  My current portfolio is pretty energy intensive right now.  So I chose these stocks to improve my diversification.  I also avoided companies that either haven’t reported their 2008 results, or had significant negative first quarter earnings.  A lot of my higher ranked stocks are small cap, which can increase the transaction costs, so I try to only pick a few of those.  Finally, I check the historical prices for the recommended stocks to verify that the valuation price is reasonable when looking where the company has been over the past few years. 

Thanks for your input Longtermbull, I generally don't let a companies debt scare me too much (although recent history suggests that maybe I should).   I like to stay away from REITS too, but I was feeling a little adventurous today.  GRT seemed like the best of this rather ugly catagory.

I almost thought about going Microsoft, but it would have cost me too many friendships. 

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#7) On June 03, 2009 at 4:22 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.97) wrote:

I'm interested in your pick of GRT.  I like REITs, but I'm not a big fan of malls and shopping centers currently.  Why is it that you like their presence in these places?

I appreciate you sharing your insights.

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#8) On June 03, 2009 at 4:32 PM, TheCaulfieldMan (92.09) wrote:

I don't really trade REITs so what do you think makes GRT better than a company like Hersha Hospitality or Ashford Hospitality?

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#9) On June 03, 2009 at 4:39 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Bridgeboy, responding to your comment may very well reveal my ignorance about REITS and how the economy is affecting them.  So I welcome any corrections.My big worry about Reits was linked to people defaulting on their mortgages.  Going forward my worry is more the difficulty home buyers may have in obtaining home loans.  I think the economy is rebounding, and consumer spending will increase throughout this summer.  I think this will drive a lot of growth in the retail industry.  I would also assume that because GRT deals primarily with shopping centers and malls and they have a large amount of PPE on their balance sheets that they their risks are lease related.  Since GRT produced a profit during the first quarter of 09, which is probably as bad as it will get, I think they stand to do much better than other REITs.  This pick seems to have a high potential upside.

For this purpose I like this Reit which is involved with shopping centers and malls.   

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#10) On June 03, 2009 at 5:58 PM, BuildingWings (93.01) wrote:

KNDL is probably a good bet. I knew nothing about it until a couple of weeks ago when my husband told me he was going to buy some shares because it was undervalued. He laid out a pretty good case for it. I wouldn't touch the REIT with a 10 foot pole (malls?!!, shopping centers?!!). If you want to be a bit of a risk-taker, you might want to look into Chinese small caps.  I have many in my portfolio. Good luck.

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#11) On June 04, 2009 at 3:44 PM, swank9 (< 20) wrote:

what's up with GRT today?  a little luck never hurt anyone i suppose ;)

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#12) On June 04, 2009 at 3:57 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Either these picks are up because everyone followe my lead and bought them, or I am able to predict the future (lets not consider the third option of just being really lucky).

Ticker, Price I paid, Current Price, % Gain

WCC 26.38          28.21  7%

JAKK 12.98         13.11  1%

KNDL 12.32         13.81  12%

GRT 2.718           3.36  23%

SBN  .3991         .4      0%

I can't compain about returns like that after a single day!

 

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#13) On June 04, 2009 at 4:02 PM, TheCaulfieldMan (92.09) wrote:

Congrats, expecially on GRT.

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#14) On June 08, 2009 at 1:15 AM, recklessfier (86.13) wrote:

Just want to say I'm a big fan of your website/stock analysis tool and blog.  Funny comment about MSFT, do you come from the linux / opensource scene?

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#15) On June 08, 2009 at 9:55 AM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Our website programmer is HUGE into linux/opensource.  Our webpage designer is a HUGE Mac user.  I mostly just try to keep those two grounded and our website working for windows users.  I am glad that you are getting value from our website, good luck!

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#16) On June 09, 2009 at 9:32 PM, Barebonez (95.50) wrote:

wow great calls on the stocks

Up date 6- 09 9:30pm

WCC 27.27 after hours 28.28  

JAKK 13.25 after hours 13.28

KNOL  15.36 after hours 15.37

GRT  3.30 after hours 3.50

SBN  .47 after hours .52

great job

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#17) On June 10, 2009 at 7:44 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

GRT intrigues me.  Why GRT over other REITs? 

Just on the face of it, their balance sheet isn't all that terribly pretty.  However, the real question is whether or not their RE holdings are overvalued or undervalued when compared to their book values. 

I'm admittedly a bit confused about some of their accounting treatments after a quick glance at their depreciation schedule, so not sure which way I'm leaning on this one right now.  I'll probably research it some more. 

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