GoodVibe Call – My green shoots and the mighty wave 3 of 3
June 21, 2009
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RELATED TICKERS: GRE
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Many people claim they started to see green shoots in the economy. Well, for my Technical green shoots, I haven’t seen any. The first chart in the comment section is the one and only chart any long-term investor must keep on their radar before calling a solid bottom, bull market or green shoots of any variety at that matter.
In this chart I show you two Technical indicators that rarely give a buy "cross over" or sell "cross under" signal when plotted on a long-term monthly basis. That give them great credence and reliability to capture long term trend without being effected with the noise in between tops and bottoms. Once they crossover or under, they pick a major top or bottom! They did it in 2000 top, 2003 bottom, and again in 2007 top. Sounds too good to be true, right? Look for yourself!
In the first indicator MACD, you also find green bars appearing in 2003 bottom. These are sign of bullish market developing. These are my green shoots. Once they sprout with a bullish cross over signal, the bulls are back and grazing.
Now you go and look up the chart! At 666 and after four months 40% rally and there’s no crossing and it’s all desert with no green shoots (bars) at sight! I guess it’s locusts eating my green shoots while under ground. And while you are there, take a look at the declining volume and other trusted Technical indicator in this live chart by clicking here. You see no green land in sight where the bulls can graze. We still in barren desert. Only Camels and bears can survive there.
By the way, little levity can take you a long way. I am not making fun of the bulls here. I actually still think that we have another shot to top 956 but will take one day at a time and monitor the situation and report to you as soon as I see any oasis for the bulls to take shelter at instead of the mirage we've been running towards relentlessly.
Last part of this blog...
Let me bring to your attention our latest “GoodVibe community call” if you missed it. It still in effect and is getting better. Last month @ S&P 882 we called for a new move up to above 930, followed by another call in June for a fresh new rally high to above 950, which we followed in June 11 by a live call (Comment 10) for an imminent top @ 955.69 just one minute before the exact top of 956.23 followed immediately by another call for an imminent decline from that top. After we temporarily bottomed @ 903.78 we called for another incoming mini counter rally to the previous decline, which we had last Friday.
Now we are calling for another imminent decline from current 921.23 that according to EWP is considered the largest move in any wave, wave 3 of 3 at any degree of the waves. It’s an awesome wave comparing to the rest, a beauty to be held (bullish or bearish) where most of the gains or losses occur. The one EW Technicians hunt for like storm chasers hunt for the perfect tornadoes. This is where we stack our most dough in expectation for large gains in rapid fashion.
Please, check the second chart below and click here to read this blog and comment #7 for detailed explanation of this call. You can follow the latest update to this call as well by checking this post where we add the recent charts and analysis in the comment section and we also chart our calls live in the lounge (Blue comment - click watch now).
That said, we have line-in-the-sand physical and psychological numbers when once Mr. Market crosses, we take our capital off the table and reconsider our charts. This is a plus. BIG plus! We are the masters of our fate. We hit many jackpots when we are right or fall on our swords with grace and dignity when Mr. Market desires so. We don't need to wait for the news, insider information, cheating, Steve jobs' health development, or heaven forbid wait for the next earning report to find out that they screwed big or fired their CFO because he was cooking the books or had no books to begin with.
Let me add something here of importance. These calls are posted ahead of the actual action unlike some who like to claim that we just predict what happened, which is an oxymoron statement in itself if not laughable. Also, we always see both sides. What we do is only call for a possible scenario or a setup according to a set of well-known rules based on EWP and other Technical indicators. This setup is always made with stops in mind where we can protect our capital, lock gains, or minimize losses if and when our best scenario comes to be wrong.
Also remember that EWP and TA doesn’t prefer bullish or bearish scenario but instead play with winners at the time of the call. Also it covers all time frames including very short, short, medium, long and very long term range. You can pick your favorite range depend on your favorite investing/trading style as well as risk tolerance among many other things that you should consider before embarking on self-directing investing/trading.
If TA or EWP are not your cup of tea, please don’t refrain from our community. Some of us squarely don’t believe at all in EWP and some make their own trades without using TA! They are regulars in our community and they add to us. If you believe you have something of value to add to our thinking including a rational and unbiased critique of what we do, please get in and you will always find a welcoming ear as well as helping hand if you desire one but please read this first if you didn't before. We aspire to inspire ourselves to build, add, or make positive change in our lives and the lives of our loved ones. Diversity strengthens our community and adds more value to our thinking and decisions.
I wish you a pleasurable day and profitable week, all year long!
GoodVibe
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