GoodVibe4Ever (99.08)

60 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 01, 2009 at 7:39 AM, BravoBevo (100.00) wrote:

Faithful are the wounds of a friend, but the kisses of an enemy are deceitful. 

GV, I hope you are able to enjoy your vacation away from here.

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#2) On July 01, 2009 at 7:54 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

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#3) On July 01, 2009 at 8:10 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

GoodVibe,

I hope your vacation is all that you hope for and a bit more.  Check in from time to time just to say "Hi" if you wish.  We will be happy to hear from you. 

Enjoy yourself, friend.

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#4) On July 01, 2009 at 8:15 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

GV- who I call teacher- I am with you in spirit and wish you the BEST in your next adventure( recovery and vacation). We will all be waiting to hear from you.

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#5) On July 01, 2009 at 8:30 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

GV- I was unable to get into CIL last couple days- don't know why so am not currently a producer. Do you want me to try again? I notice the  lounge just went into standby

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#6) On July 01, 2009 at 8:52 AM, crystlz (40.14) wrote:

vaya con dios mi amigo

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#7) On July 01, 2009 at 8:53 AM, cabotb21 (< 20) wrote:

Be well soon, and as much as you can, enjoy a well deserved rest, my friend!

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#8) On July 01, 2009 at 10:54 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face;
the rains fall soft upon your fields and until we meet again,
may God hold you in the palm of His hand.

I really hope you can start your vacation soon GV - have a wonderful trip!

 

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#9) On July 01, 2009 at 4:51 PM, anibas (56.51) wrote:

What's up with CIL? Can't get in just to watch.

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#10) On July 01, 2009 at 6:44 PM, SNHamilton (99.83) wrote:

Another interesting perspective on true friendship:

 

Buffett recalled a friend of his in Omaha who had been in Auschwitz. He describes this friend as taking a long time to make friends because she has a simple test she applies to all potential friends. "Would this person hide me?" 

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#11) On July 01, 2009 at 10:22 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#12) On July 02, 2009 at 12:49 AM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

May you "slip the surly bonds of earth and touch the face of God'."  ...........Then come home. It is good down here and you are one of the reasons.

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#13) On July 02, 2009 at 8:39 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Have a great vacation GV

 

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#14) On July 02, 2009 at 9:10 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Susan- if you are on here- and open the lounge- I will try the producer again and see if it will work. Let me know.

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#15) On July 02, 2009 at 9:12 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Note about the posted chart:

The FIB spiral was first created and then proportionally scaled in Adobe Illustrator to position to the May high and March low. The spiral was not manipulated or disproportionally scaled.

There is an interesting intersection at 975 which is the mid-point between the high and low.

A larger version can be found here:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2506/3681638314_877ffa0fa8_o.jpg 

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#16) On July 02, 2009 at 9:13 AM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

llcx- that is a fascinating chart- will take a look at your larger version

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#17) On July 02, 2009 at 10:26 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Thanks Innerflame - the intersections are very curious and overall seem to imply that we are heading into a new spiral. We're about to find out : )

Just for fun, I'll try a chart over a longer time frame to see if a graphic relationship occurs between spirals.

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#18) On July 02, 2009 at 11:13 AM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

llcx

Does this potentially point to 945 as next high and then we create a new spiral?

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#19) On July 02, 2009 at 11:52 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

hi kstarich,

Please don't use the chart for anything other then fun. I honestly have no idea how to interpret it.

As I was adding the channels (dotted lines) last night I was struck by the proportions and thought I'd add the spiral to see if there was a correlation. I thought GV would also get a kick out of the effort.

Oddly, the spiral aligned to the market drop that occurred in October of last year and to current price action. I find it extremely odd that 975 aligns to the edge of the spiral in such a proportional way.

If I was to hazard a guess based only on the look of the chart, the central portion of the spiral will represent the trading range for July; 790s - 910. 

 

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#20) On July 02, 2009 at 1:01 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

 

Larger Version: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3594/3682215660_78a0b05692_o.jpg

Added an flopped spiral from the March low to recent high.  

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#21) On July 04, 2009 at 6:56 PM, salvadorveiga (73.09) wrote:

you shouldn't do like that... you should use the inner center of the spiral ;)

 

There are some trading programs with that took... is very very good because it also gives us a sense of time relationships as well other than just price... 

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#22) On July 05, 2009 at 10:40 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Thanks for the comment salvadorveiga 

Can you post an example, I'm finding numerous ways of using the inner portion of the spiral.

Thanks, IIcx

Larger Version: http://www.flickr.com/photos/39632727@N08/3689666073/sizes/o/ 

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#23) On July 05, 2009 at 5:03 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

I'm looking for a "True Friend" as well in this struggle to see if the spiral can be aligned to market activity -- a confirmation of EWT by definition in "real time".

If the EW sequence and patterns are absolute by definition, one should be able to create a template to overlay past and present. Future projections are likely to be realized in the proportions of the sequence with a positive or negative deviation from the premise.

The obvious [first] problem is a consistent system of chart measure. All charts I've seen online are recalculated based on timeframe, price range, and intended presentation size.

They're all inaccurate if a consistent x,y measure is needed over time?

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#24) On July 07, 2009 at 10:37 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

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#25) On July 07, 2009 at 10:51 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Just a thought that's been bugging me, do you see any reason we can't break up into the original down channel?

Best, IIcx 

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#26) On July 08, 2009 at 9:31 AM, skeptic86 (52.74) wrote:

morning all,

it's a bit dead at work right now, so i figured i'd take a second to introduce myself. i am 23 years old and just recently got interested in investing when i started working full time a year ago. my only previous investing experience was when i bought some AMD back in 2004 at 12, watched it go up to 44, then back down to 3ish (i still own those shares). i got my start in investing by reading morningstar's help and education a few times. then i stumbled on to this website on morning.

i got my BS in petroleum engineering, and i am now working at a consulting firm. i love reading about macro economics. currently im reading the world is flat by thomas friedman. some of my favorite blogs are the hussman funds weekly comments, business inside, http://mises.org/, dividend growth investor. I also worked IT throughout college and like a bunch of tech blogs like gizmodo, engadget, fastcompany, ect.

i've learned a massive amount from everyone here TMF and in CILs. i want to thank everyone for the knowledge ive gained. i hope that one day i can contribute, but as of now i can only read and listen.

regards, pv

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#27) On July 08, 2009 at 10:29 AM, AllStarPortfolio (59.48) wrote:

pv355 (95.05) , Welcome.

IIcx (62.43) wrote:

Just a thought that's been bugging me, do you see any reason we can't break up into the original down channel?

Ya' know? i think it will, but first it will use that channel as resistance, i think. I am with Binve, and Ultralong in my thoughts.

-solaris

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#28) On July 08, 2009 at 12:58 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart Update:

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#29) On July 09, 2009 at 6:14 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Just for Fun

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#30) On July 09, 2009 at 7:32 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#31) On July 09, 2009 at 7:52 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#32) On July 09, 2009 at 3:36 PM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Greetings guys -

Nope, not a chart - Just a throwback to Lounge days when there was a bit of music here and there.  One to share with you.

 

 

C you in the CIL,

Mary

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#33) On July 09, 2009 at 10:32 PM, c0ld (< 20) wrote:

I would like to ask how the stops at the 900 area are supposed to work.  What is the purpose of a stop other than to minimize losses?  It would be best to put a stop loss at some point which would suggest you were wrong about the direction, right?... so I'm assuming if 900 is surpassed it is very unlikely to fall under that mark again?  Or are you looking for a better entry with the expectation that it will indeed fall again. . .  or do you plan on reassessing because your count or expectation was not met?  There must be preference involved based on trading style....  is 900 considered a tight stop for somehow who plans on seeing the entire "wave down" to completion?  In the same way like the last down completed at 666 (yikes). . . and hopefully the recent up at 956??

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#34) On July 10, 2009 at 7:48 AM, Mary953 (23.42) wrote:

Cold,

Columbia's charts on Stockchart.com are a great help for the specifics of what is happening day to day.  Use these as a guide.  http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600   -  And REMEMBER THAT YOU CAN VOTE FOR THEM ONCE A DAY!  This is some of the best information around   He is updating the charts on a daily basis to stay current so that they will be of the most use about the current situation.

Also, as far as general information,  I think that GoodVibe may have answered your question about stops.  He devoted a blog to his trading style including how he used stops.  If you find this of use, it is at http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=170103&t=01009449456398254945

For the moment, I am letting losses ride, but I am long in very little.  Mostly, I am on the sideline waiting for the drop.  I want to have the cash to buy in at lower prices.  Usually I lose money as the market drops and then wish I had sold high and bought back in after the drop.  I think we are close enough to a high to take my profits and sit back to wait.  (My 'losses' are in areas that are basic inflation hedges or bearish investments.  They will go up if the market goes down.)

Most important, decide what you plan to do, where you think things are headed, make a plan, and then work your plan.  Change it as and if conditions show that the market is not heading in the direction that you expected.  Right now, the charts and the general long-term consensus in the CIL seems to be in sync with what is happening.

Does any of this help?

Mary

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#35) On July 10, 2009 at 8:23 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

It should be an interesting day; the market is oversold.

 

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#36) On July 10, 2009 at 8:26 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

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#37) On July 10, 2009 at 12:36 PM, kstarich (90.06) wrote:

Mary

Dear friend I am so with you on your position.  I too am all in cash at the moment.  I only have physical metal at the moment.  Reviewing everyone's charts I believe we are headed towards 750 level.  Either way I am going to watch and wait because I have cash and time on my side.  I feel confident in waiting for my edge which may not come until August :-)

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#38) On July 11, 2009 at 12:49 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Just for fun and comment

 

 

Larger version  http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2456/3709615201_bed0465846_o.jpg

 

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#39) On July 11, 2009 at 7:39 PM, AdirondackFund (27.62) wrote:

@ llcx

I know what that is!  It is 'The Bridge To Nowhere', right?

 

@ Port

Nice pic on the video.

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#40) On July 11, 2009 at 7:50 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

it's actually what the "street" is referring to as an umbrella but could be a head fake for all that believe we're not in a channel up. The market is over sold at the moment... watch out for the short squeeze if it is a head fake.

Best, IIcx 

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#41) On July 12, 2009 at 1:26 AM, crystlz (40.14) wrote:

This week's chart is from a cautious bear perspective. I think that  we have a temporary top in at 956.23 and are headed down to correct the big rally that IMO has just ended. I do think it will take some time for this second wave to play out and after cashing some winners am in cash hoping for some entry spots to open a few longs as this wave  bottoms. I am very busy with work this week and don't feel comfortable opening any new shorts and not being able to keep a close eye on them.

my 2 cents

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#42) On July 13, 2009 at 3:11 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart Update:

Enlarge

I hope this find you well!

GoodVibe

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#43) On July 14, 2009 at 12:43 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

Chart Update:

This is S&P and VIX. Who will win? My bets still on the bears but with disciplined stops (Yellow area in S&P). Always see both sides.

Enlarge

Current 903

Are we there yet? ;)

GoodVibe

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#44) On July 14, 2009 at 8:39 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

Found this on Wikipedia:

"Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative."

 

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#45) On July 15, 2009 at 8:48 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

@ 8:30 AM I posted this in the lounge:

I am now preparing LONG orders. By 2PM today I will be either in cash FULLY or will close some shorts and hedge the rest with long positions. It will all depend on how we break out and hold. I am leaning towards all cash.

I hope this added to your thinking and will NOT make your thinking.

GoodVibe

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#46) On July 15, 2009 at 11:47 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

fusion

enlarge

(nasdaq 100 rally of january 1987 in black)

(see this post)

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#47) On July 15, 2009 at 1:33 PM, SolarisKing (27.57) wrote:

Hey, someone go in the lounge and tell them to let me in. . . . -solaris

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#48) On July 16, 2009 at 6:29 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

As UltraLong points out, the SPX gapped up yesterday and the August Put calls are...

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=229010&t=01002756778892789413&source=ihpsitcag0000002#comment229046

I'd be careful at this point, there's 7 trillion sitting on the sidelines waiting to invest. If they do, we're headed higher.

portefeuille #46 chart is pretty amazing.

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#49) On July 16, 2009 at 6:39 AM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

BDI is rising and it isn't manipulated by Options calls.

Looks like a "Green Shoot" - ;)

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#50) On July 16, 2009 at 8:06 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

goodvibe4ever has updated his Novartis chart (see comment #30 here) in comment #5 here. He thinks it might be time to buy. Also see this post.

Enlarge

 

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#51) On July 16, 2009 at 8:09 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

The 10 day chart shows Novartis in Zürich trading in CHF.

NVS is currently (pre-market) at 42.00 USD.

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#52) On July 16, 2009 at 12:21 PM, bothisellhigher (51.64) wrote:

I'm thinking that if Novartis closes above 42 (short term resistance) the probabilities would then favor a continuation up...to 50.  Stop-loss...40.75...Listen carefully to GV!  It is very possible he's turning us on to a nice little profit play. 

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#53) On July 16, 2009 at 12:30 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

-----------------

Re NVS: As long as Daniel Vasella continues to be Chairman and CEO I would avoid Novartis. Since he is at the top many years ago already he receives $20m Swiss francs every year.

-----------------

(from comment #7 here by camistocks)

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#54) On July 16, 2009 at 5:51 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

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#55) On July 16, 2009 at 7:22 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

BDI +350 this week -- someone must be shipping something somewhere ;)

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#56) On July 16, 2009 at 7:29 PM, RVAspeculator (98.67) wrote:

Goodvibe: 

"By 2PM today I will be either in cash FULLY or will close some shorts and hedge the rest with long positions.  I am leaning towards all cash."

I hope you stuck to this Goodvibe.  It's good to be able to admit you were wrong in trading.  Even though I have busted your balls quite a bit about the whole "predictive powers of EWP" I am glad to see you didnt hold your shorts all the way back up and at least got out at 930 or so.

I have always said, If you can't take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses....

One of these "dramatic reversals" is going to be a "dramatic reversal" for real, but its going to be when people are so tired of shorting it that no one is on the short side when it finally happens.   There will be no "dramatic reversal" post in CAPS when it happens....   Is that now?  I have no clue, which is why when I covered in the high 800's back in June I stated in my blog I am not trying to short this myself anymore and am simply waiting for a good time to buy again, even if that is 2010 or 2011.   So much easier to make money on the upside.

 

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#57) On July 16, 2009 at 8:05 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

One of the kindest comments I've run across related to GV's amazing effort was from one who loves to satirize all "Fools" equally but stopped to explain -- "[GV] just wants everyone to win".

EWT does work RVAspeculator and nothing more needs to be said.

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#58) On July 16, 2009 at 8:36 PM, IIcx (64.24) wrote:

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#59) On July 16, 2009 at 9:33 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

RVA - I am here for one reason. To bring people together and bring TA to their attention so they can use it to their benefits. NOTHING ELSE! I am proud with what I started with the help of many friends here but I claim no credit for it.

As I always say; sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always honest. No ONE win them all. I try my best and take risk more than anyone else I know but I never encourage others to follow me. For sometime now , I intentionally avoid making calls to let everyone make their own mind. 

Why you always concentrate on the negative. Why you want to prove me wrong all the time by taking things out of context or twisting the facts? Didn't you see the chart in comment #28 (EXACTLY at the bottom with three obvious stops to lock gains if they desire). Many people exited there making a lot of money. Even more than me and you. Thanks to EW not to me! Everyone here now call the shots themselves unlike before when I was the only one. I rarely make charts now and I only blog to bring TA to more people's attention.

For anyone (including myself) who stays short even until today is their own business. Not yours or mine to decide or to come back AFTER the facts to rub salt to their wounds. This not professional and every wise trader will tell you it's a big sin.

Let people have their own wings instead of me or you preaching to them and telling them what to think or what to do.

What do you think of putting this thing behind us and stop by the lounge and CORRECT people with strong opinions in a respectful manner with good TA or FA of yours. Everyone will love you and thank you for it.

I really hope this find you well and make you focus your energy with us to make a difference. Thank you in a advance!

GoodVibe

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#60) On July 17, 2009 at 11:49 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.08) wrote:

GV Live TA lesson: (check the lounge in comment #54)

New blog .............

(Take initiative - I show you the door, you do the leg work)

Price Channel (Continuation)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Williams %R

Enlarge

Lesson Chart update - I hope you quickly sifted though the links until later.

This chart is live and current by the way. Those who have Stockchart membership can see it live from the previous link. Here's the still one:

Enlarge

Read the annotation on the chart to know the difference between the first chart and the second. Try to build the chart in your charting system and see if it will work out.

It takes time to learn a new thing but you will be rewarded if you keep at it. WATCH! WATCH! and WATCH MORE! To the best of my ability, I only give you what works (not all the time but most of the time). So your time will be well invested.

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe

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