Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

AdirondackFund (27.08)

I passed 38,000 Caps players today by .....

Recs

26

July 08, 2009 – Comments (32) | RELATED TICKERS: CRA , MER , BLO

shorting the Phone Book.  Originally, I came to Caps because it was a very convenient place to monitor the picks of TV personality Jim Cramer.  I was simply trying to assess how well his picks actually did.  Well, they didn't do too well, as my Caps rating fell to about 9 and my earnings rank bottomed at 3%.  Since then, I revamped the portfolio with my own picks.  Miraculously, I have now rallied the account from a 1,000 point loser to a net gain.  A word of caution though.  This is paper trading, not the real deal.  But for those who are the least bit interested, in the old days you had to excel at paper trading in order to get a job on Wall St.  Now, it seems, your best chance is as a computer programmer, working and designing BIG BLUE, the engine that is now doing my old job.  Yes, creative destruction is the way of economies, things change rapidly, especially in these times, and should be a cautionary tale for those who work for the Government since the entire concept is now one where the prey has now become the hunter. 

The point of this entire exercise is to SHOW people that their own wits and wisdom is all that is required, just as Benjamin Franklin said they would and should be.  Trust yourself.  Trust what you know and by all means TURN OFF THE BOOB TUBE.  There is nothing there that will even remotely cause you to be led in the right direction.  Success comes from being an Independent Thinker.  I hope you have all enjoyed the show...

P.S.  I wasn't able to add the last Ticker because CAPS only allows three of them.  But the one I selected last was "S". 

32 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 08, 2009 at 2:55 PM, cthomas1017 (30.03) wrote:

Nice job, Adi!  Just stay behind me.  It'll stroke my ego to be ahead of the guy who jumped over 40K ranking in one day.  Some day I'll have to clean up my portfolio and make a run for gmx.

Report this comment
#2) On July 08, 2009 at 3:02 PM, alstry (99.52) wrote:

For a guy with your talent.....you are not even in the stadium yet.  At your level, the first 60K is easy.....it is the last few hundred where the challenge sets in......:)

Report this comment
#3) On July 08, 2009 at 3:02 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

@cthomas

I can't promise you that, but I can assure you that no matter what the score, the cream always rises to the top.  It is the 'ideas' that rule, not the players.  That should be the sole reason and purpose for being here in the first place.  It is the 'tale of the tape' that matters ...and nothing else.

Report this comment
#4) On July 08, 2009 at 3:09 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

@ Alstry

Sorry,  but being now retired for 7 years, and having taken up 'fishing', I do get distracted by life; that these things are simply not as important as they once were.  Maybe the fire will return, but so far as to stick the pointy end of my pen in the eye of the storm itself.  "Death Be Not Proud", you know. 

Report this comment
#5) On July 08, 2009 at 3:11 PM, scrillawill (< 20) wrote:

I see everydayinvestor isnt number 1 anymore comments please

Report this comment
#6) On July 08, 2009 at 4:11 PM, PrestonCheek (88.50) wrote:

Ad, glad to see you investing a little time in caps and blogging.

I hope people know that a lot can be learned from you and I look forward to hearing more war stories. :)

Alstry has it right.

Preston

Report this comment
#7) On July 08, 2009 at 4:37 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

@ Preston

Uuuugh, War Stories...don't get me started.  The thing most directly in front of us all, is the issue and possibility of War in the 21st Century.  The stakes now are a might higher than  they have ever been.  I will confess to you, that what has drawn me out is this very real PROBABILITY of War, the consequences of which are simply MAD.  There was much said in the late 60's and early 70's about what is MAD (Mutally Assurred Destruction), which manifested itself in the Public Conscienceness through stories such as "It is a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, World".  Kind of hard to affix to the Marquis, but still the current best show in town. 

Report this comment
#8) On July 08, 2009 at 4:44 PM, PrestonCheek (88.50) wrote:

Ad, sorry for my bad choice of words.

I was really talking about stories like you were telling in the CIL lounge several nights ago.

Although I agree with your above statement.

Report this comment
#9) On July 08, 2009 at 5:30 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Preston

 I thought the Lounge was closed.  GV has sort of disappeared, so to speak.  *poof*

Report this comment
#10) On July 08, 2009 at 6:22 PM, PrestonCheek (88.50) wrote:

No Ad, he went on vacation, were still there.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=221405&t=01009449456398254945

Comment 11 now. They have to open new ones when they start to slow down.

Report this comment
#11) On July 08, 2009 at 9:27 PM, alstry (99.52) wrote:

Ad,

My comment was intended in the most complimentary light....based on a cursory review of your picks, I have little doubt you will be a top player sooner than many think.

Report this comment
#12) On July 08, 2009 at 11:42 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

LOL.

Thanks Alstry.

Keep up the Paul Revere Ride that you are doing here.  So many people do not completely understand the shape that we're in.  Nor, do they know the true nature of American Crime.

Short Story for you.  My Grandfather had two safes.  He lived through the Depression, graduating College in 1922.  He reported that when the Bank's closed, they really closed.  The employees ran off with the money and there was no one left guarding the Bank.  Everyone 'bugged out'.  We may easily see the same as people are pushed beyond human limits.  It was because this happened on such a scale that the FDIC was invented in the first place.  What a world.

I see Fascism has become the norm at these GoodVibe Lounge Chats.  Plato and Socrates were right.  What occurs in the city, occurs in the state, it also occurs in the nation as in the Cosmos itself.  Imagine that.  A Classical Thought there for you. 

 

Report this comment
#13) On July 08, 2009 at 11:55 PM, timetodrive (< 20) wrote:

Hey Ad,

It's Driver here.  Missed you over at the CiL.  I saw you dropped by this evening, and read the dialogue.  I hope you don't get the idea you are not wanted around.  I think the only purpose for the guideline is to keep "chatter" to a minimum during market hours.  We can talk fishing when the market closes.  :)  Hope you're doing well...wait I know you are!  I locked in some profit today, how about you?  I was hoping to see that chart you were talking about.  If you go to "tools" on freestockcharts and select "create hyperlink to layout" then you can post the link by holding down "ctrl" then hitting "v" when your cursor is in the box.  Post it here or in the CiL...Keep in touch,

Driver 

Report this comment
#14) On July 09, 2009 at 2:46 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

@ DRIVER!!!

 I was so worried about you.  I felt horrible you had to go through the sweat and not enjoy the sweet together.  I bailed twice today, at about 12:05 and 12:10, got 5.67 and 5.77 in two lots to get out.  Also closed the short on FAS at 7.19 on a time trigger trade.  I actually do a countdown.  LOL.  It was a great day.  We rally from here to maybe 605 again in Rifn and then we sell off along the downward sloping Gann line that I use and am unable to post.  Rifin hit all the numbers I gave you.  600 and 585.  I closed right at 585 and I think it bottomed at 580.  I think it bounces off of 605 and then goes to 555.  That is the level of the LAST upward sloping Gann support line.  If we do not rally from that point, the Stock Market will crash for good.  Straight down baby.  There are no more Gann support lines after that point, so 'we seek a newer, lower level'.  Don't think it can't happen.  With the way things are crumbling in California, I'm not real optimistic. 

Report this comment
#15) On July 09, 2009 at 3:07 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6a3c5e02-2ab0-4c89-a659-0637e8e6da12

Report this comment
#16) On July 09, 2009 at 3:41 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6a3c5e02-2ab0-4c89-a659-0637e8e6da12

Report this comment
#17) On July 09, 2009 at 3:50 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Ah, there we go.  I posted it twice.  This is the Major Octave Chart in Daily Format.  We start here.  We draw from the previous high to the low and line up the Gann and EW and Prechter Retracement horizontals.  The prices go right to each one of them.  We then place a Gann Fan on the low and stretch it to the first low, which will ultimately coincide with the first top down from the high.  This is the rally line.  We follow the rally line up until we run out of room.  The trend then reverses to the down side.  We then stretch a Gann Fan from the top, which is also where .618 exists and connect it with the first low.  The opposite of what we did for the rally, but the same rule.

Now we zoom in. 

Report this comment
#18) On July 09, 2009 at 4:17 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=36e4abc2-afae-4caa-be4e-3a21deaa278fv

Report this comment
#19) On July 09, 2009 at 4:37 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

This is the hourly chart.  You can see the same rule applies.  You stretch the Gann Fan from the top to the first high, just as you did the first low to obtain the rally line.  This now becomes the resistence line.  You can now see the price levels are all hit on the way down, exactly where the Gann Fan intersects price.  This is the square of time and price and governs the next change in trend at the hourly Minor Octave.  You can see the Gann Lines have 'gravity' both on the way up and on the way down.  Price always pulls toward the line.  When price moves above a downward sloping line, that is an invitaion to a quick fall.  Notice also the 'Kennedy Line', that one is in Orange and represents the 'Kennedy Rule', wherein you exit markets early.  You can also see the plunge downward through the orange 'Kennedy Line', which announces the downtrend is on.  I think the book on RFK and Jackie O. came out on the puncture of the 'Kennedy Line'.  Cute.  *big smile*   You sell on the Kennedy Line on the way up and short into the triangle that forms above it.  The puncture to the downside confirms you were correct in doing so. 

Report this comment
#20) On July 09, 2009 at 5:53 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ece39d46-ed9b-4f38-9666-b491c9b53b65http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ece39d46-ed9b-4f38-9666-b491c9b53b65

Report this comment
#21) On July 09, 2009 at 6:08 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

This is the 5 Minute Chart.  This is either Minuette or Sub Minuette, if you like.  The patterns and rules are all the same.  You can see the resistence line above at 600-603.  Clearly we are going there, now, to play 'gravity' with that line.  Then we slide down and to the right and continue the fall.  There are two more Major Gann support Lines below us still and the decline is not over until all of them are touched, just the same as was the case on the way up.  We are already well free of the upward sloping support line drawn from the March low, and the further away it gets, the more gone that line becomes, as we seek a newer lower level. If the last line doesn't hold, drawn from the March low, then it all crashes, again seeking a newer and lower level.  This should all go on in the context of the market making more and consecutive lower highs and lower lows.  This is a classic Gann Decline going here.   

Report this comment
#22) On July 09, 2009 at 10:37 AM, anchak (99.72) wrote:

Hey Ad...nice blog.....should write more....also excellent venue to share stories ( not-so-confidential ones anyway!).....

I left you a msg......looks like you figured it out - ......

I do want to understand your viewpoint better. Hope to see you back with your stuff

Report this comment
#23) On July 09, 2009 at 11:23 AM, PrestonCheek (88.50) wrote:

Ad, thats great work.

I'm sorry about the way things went yesterday in the CIL.

Why can't I see your charts, is it something I have wrong.

Looking forward to more of what you have to say. We moved to comment # 31 in the same blog.

Preston

Report this comment
#24) On July 10, 2009 at 12:28 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

@ Driver

You were right.  There's the popup on the GANN LINES. 

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0176e5c6-5d2a-40a1-954e-a4b9e645b854

You can see the puncture of the line.  I got out of FAZ right on the stroke of noon, or as soon thereafter as these fingers can type.  Got 56.86 for FAZ and 37.28 for FAS. 

I'm not buying this rally, but GANN say to flip, so I flip. 

Report this comment
#25) On July 10, 2009 at 11:25 PM, timetodrive (< 20) wrote:

Hey Ad,

I still can't get a good look at that chart.  I think the lines are getting skewed or something.  None of those gann lines are close to the support or resistance points.  Maybe it's just a glitch with freestockcharts.  Anyway, glad to here you made good on that trade.  I also bought EDC and ERX around the same time I bought FAS today.  I was up almost 3% at the HOD but held on...I closed the day up almost 2% on EDC and ERX, but I was flat on FAS.  I am holding over the weekend.  I hope we get a gap up morning Monday before the tankage begins.  I will be going heavily short once we are confirmed down...If I lose a little on this little bull trade, no biggy...I will be making a killing on the down move.  Thanks for giving me confidence by confirming my trades.  Hope you get some good fishing in this weekend.  :)

Driver

Report this comment
#26) On July 11, 2009 at 5:04 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Hey Driver,

 We're getting a nice rainstorm today, complete with thunder and lightning, so the fishing is off for today.  Maybe if it clears by sunset.  These things roll through with alacrity around here.

Speaking of which.  The link I posted here works for me.  I am simply pointing out the ride down from 600 to 588, literally from the top of the graph to the bottom.  It was the puncture through this downward sloping line that was the signal to close the FAZ position.  Wavecounts can vary, but I use trendline breaks because others do too and that is usually where the liquidity for trading resides.  It is very easy to hook up a Gann Fan like this one.  You simply connect the top, or what seems a top and the next lower high, then you extend the fan downwards.  Miraculously, price will bounce off of this trendline until it breaks through at which point it reverses trend.  I chased the flip and then dumped FAS at the first peak.  Then at the close they did an EKG move to wipe books clean. 

The longer term Gann Line is still above us and is the next downward sloping white line which has already served as resistence on the way down in the 1-2 pumping action which has led to this 3rd wave down.  It might be a 1-2 and then another 1-2 before the 3rd wave starts in earnest.  At least that is what the Gann Lines have to say about it.  It'll probably go that way too.  I am in all cash and watching to see what develops.  Eyes peeled looking for the white wolf that is stalking all of us. 

Interesting chuckle.  The last 4 ticks of the 5 minute chart on Friday show the outline and the silhouette of the Empire State Building.  Spire atop and steps on the left and right.  Even the architects like to get into the show.  The one that is most feared is The Chrysler Building Spire.  That one is all spire and smooth slopes on the way up and the way down.  In History, the Empire State Building was finished before the Chrysler Building.  The spire spike of the Chrysler Building represents the last gasp of a dying and soon to panic market.  We may be seeing that form in the next few days to get to the Gann Line which is above us and to the right.  Wouldn't that be the Siren Call for 'Ol NY.  A Chrysler Spire now that the firm has gone bankrupt.  Some sense of humor, I say. 

Report this comment
#27) On July 12, 2009 at 3:00 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Hey Driver,

It's still raining here, so I am spending more time blogging.  No fishing ... alas, except come Monday Morning on the corner of Broad and Wall.  The fishing seems just fine there, and you can cast from indoors, so that's an added bonus.

I just saw Roy Silverstone's 'the elliot wave practitioner July 11, 2009' and Roy's count agrees with what Gann Lines are showing.  A short bounce on Rifin to 608, perhaps a range at 603-610 it looks like, and then a very steep decline thereafter.  This is likely 'last call'.  I will go 300% short on this one and will not trade the rally up.  I need to get in on the short side cleanly, so I will be concentrating just on that side of the market.

Hope you're enjoying a rainless weekend.   

 

Report this comment
#28) On July 12, 2009 at 3:10 PM, timetodrive (< 20) wrote:

Hey Ad!

I finally got a chance to go into the CiL and read your conversation with Anchak on Gann fans.  I get it now.  Your charts weren't loading correctly before, so I couldn't get it.  Today's my birthday, so I guess this is my birthday gift from you.  :)  Its always nice to get a new tool to keep in my toolbelt.  Even better when its a tool the pros use.  It's too bad I can't use it on my strategy desk.  I need to write to Ameritrade, get them to add that to their charting tools.

I like your Empire State Building analogy.  I love combining the arts in my investing.  This is a strong principle behind reading charts and predicting movements, one must always keep an artistic and open eye on things.

I am mostly cash now and ready to pounce on the short side if we start sliding down, but still holding a few longs from Friday.  I am up around 2% so sould be able to get out of those at least flat unless we get a huge gap down in the AM.  I still think we will have a little up wave or zig-zag before another big drop comes.  Earnings won't really start until mid-week...

Thanks again for sharing the Gann rules with everyone over in the GV lounge.  Much appreciated!  Maybe you should take some of that cash you made last week and go buy yourself a new computer.  :)

Later,

Driver

Report this comment
#29) On July 12, 2009 at 4:09 PM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Happy Birth day to you!  Happy Birthday to you!!  Happy Biiiiiirthday dear Driver rrrrrrrrrr!!  rrrr!!!

(dramatic pause) 

Happy Birthday to You!

This from the Singing Waiters at Manero's in Greenwich, CT.  My folks used to take me and the five brothers there for birthdays.  It was fun, that is until, Long Term Capital moved into the office about a half block down the street.  As the 'Ol NY'ers would tell you, the neighborhood and the Restaurant both went to Hell at about the same time. 

The Gann Angles are gold and should be used as a guide when reading waves as they form.  I'm glad you got something NEW on your Birthday!   Now, go teach those kids what a real BEAR HUG is all about.  *big smile*

 

Report this comment
#30) On July 12, 2009 at 4:43 PM, Mary953 (24.17) wrote:

Happy Birthday Driver! 

Report this comment
#31) On July 12, 2009 at 7:42 PM, Mary953 (24.17) wrote:

And Ad, I look forward to learning more about Gann Fans and, hard to believe I am actually saying this,

Alstry is, at long last, right.  You are much too capable in the techniques of the market and much too smart to be kept out of the top handful of CAPS members by anything short of your own indifference about spending time on opening and closing the stocks.  Please try to keep some time for the CIL though.  I enjoy your company there!

Report this comment
#32) On July 13, 2009 at 2:25 AM, AdirondackFund (27.08) wrote:

Guilty as charged.  Actually, what I am thinking in some cases is to calculate the pain level and do not close some positions just to see how bad they will get.  This was particularly true in regards to Cramer's picks.  I follow Cantor Fitzgerald as well and their picks fell through the floor.  One of Livermore's Tenets is that the Brokerage trades against you.  Many of the Brokerage picks are promos to facilitate volume thus creating short sales, just to fill the demand.  It all does come full circle.

As an interesting aside.  There was a time when you would see double prints on the tape.  You don't see it much anymore, but the second print, for the exact number of shares that you just bought, was the Brokerage trading against you.  These kinds of tactics are explained in "Reminisences of a Stock Operator" and should be read to get a sense of the street play and what that mirrors in terms of Positions and market strength.  Livermore insisted, the trader's focus must be on reading The Street.  The recent spate of Offerings, Rio Tinto being the granddaddy of offerings, would absolutely horrify Livermore were he alive to trade today's market.  This is also why I am short the Banks.  As a group, they certainly offered the most, and things do always come full circle.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners