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July 18, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: K , ARL
WTF is Karl doing on Krud-blow?
Ok, I'm not too good at embedding, or linking, nor do I aspire to be on these boards enough to learn how - so I'm going to post the link to the show, and then try to embed. This may = FAIL.
Link First:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1186451876&play=1
Now the embed attempt:
I have been having all my links dropped as well even though they seem OK before I post them.
Seriously - I can't believe that CNBC would have Karl on - he's not the typical guest to say the least.
However, after the last GE earnings report, it's clear that something needs to be done to bring in revenue. Who know's, this could be the beginning of clarity and parity in the MSM.
What I see in both sides of the Kudlow debate is neither side is correct nor wrong. However I would lean the short side. What may play out is we have hope during earnings season pushing the market up and then having it sell the news. One point was made which I tend to agree with, "Without revenue the rally is unsustainable." What makes me lean toward favoring this position is the country's poor employment condition. Without Americans having money in their pockets to spend revenue's will continue to dwindle. www.trendingtimes.com
Swingtrader -
I'm thinking next week is going to be very revealing, and will underscore your point. Of particular interest to me will be the banks - I think that they got so much crap in their books that we're going to see the seams start to rip (or I guess "implosion" might be a better phrase). A lot of transports and manufacturing companies reporting as well - if the trend for those companies continues into next week, I think it could be ugly.
Couple that with the retarded run up we had last week, and we could see a significant pullback.
This is interesting. Maybe their ratings are being hampered because, you know, they were all so bullish right before the crash. My guess is that when you're wrong in your calls, people will just turn off the TV and go find something else to do.
Now, if TV personalities were stocks, and you were looking to go for the most successful mix, you might buy the stocks, but also the portfolio insurance that goes along with the investment. Kind of like you do with a house. You're not hoping the house will burn down, but just in case if it does, it might be nice to have the house insured.
Huh. Imagine that. A Denninger appearance as portfolio insurance against the house burning down. Fascinating. But it does prove an important point. These financial geniuses, the Professional Class in America, and now the MSM media are learning how to hedge their 'information portfolio'.
Wow....not bad. Financial geniuses 'seeing' well AFTER THE FACT. Now, if they could only see forward, then we might have something. Of course, having Denninger on TV is simply an admission that perhaps they were wrong in not embracing a hedged media outlook from the beginning.
But they're not very smart to begin with, so we'll just have to be patient as they try and catch up with those who are. But frankly, there isn't much time to wait around for them, so if they get left behind, that would be cause to sing Que Sera, Sera.
Wow. He shorted friday on what seems to be purley fundamental analysis.
Tech wise we have a few signals that say the rally has taken a breather but it can go sideways and continue higher. Monday and Teusday will tell of it will reverse and create a monthly double top.
Either way I can't imagine going short in a large position just because a rally is "unsustainable". Heck, I said the same thing about the rally starting in March but didn't get in the way of that train. You have to ride it both ways :P
LTBH (long term buy and hold) means riding out the bumps. The low of 2008 was a great buying opportunity for investors (invest only money that you won't need for 5 years; ya gotta plan!). The interim ups and downs are of no consequence.
As for CNBC, BTV, WSJ, etc...
http://blueboomerhd.blogspot.com/2008/12/market-operation-and-coverage-nonsense.html
Lovinme. Now that we're more than half way through the earnings season most companies have beat the street. So do you think everything is priced into the market now. We could generate a "pipe top" here on the monthly charts. When earnings are over investors will be forced to redirect their focus away from earnings toward the economy. In the first week of August we will get refocused on unemployment when the July report comes out. This might hinge which way the pendelum swings.
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