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cbwang888 (29.74)

Banks continue to fall and fail : FDIC siezed 12 banks in July

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July 22, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: MS , CMA , RF

 

FDIC Web:  Failed Bank List

Regional banks continue to post big losses

Commercial Loans Pain Regional Banks


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Just like CIT story, small and medium business are still suffering. There is no green shoot for them.

Commerical loans went sour means the local US economy is still not doing well ...

Companies that rely on domestic consumers are going to suffer for a long long time because US consumers got no help. All efforts done by Fed and Treasury are to save big bad banks. 

Is the 2nd dip coming soon? The market will likely to correct 15%~20% after most earnings are done, I think.

    

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 22, 2009 at 10:08 AM, 7footmoose (< 20) wrote:

I don't know if you are correct about your market prediction or not but I agree that on a macro level there is little to be optimistic about. Small businesses are suffering greatly from a lack of bank lending. The consumer is consuming less than they had been for years and there is little evidence to indicate that is going to change near term. Unemployment is rising with no end in sight. The earnings reported thus far this quarter are being driven by cost cutting. The only thing I can say about the market is that it is possible that even modest returns are better than the non existent interest on deposits being paid by banks. However, remaining in the market might violate "Rule #1".

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#2) On July 22, 2009 at 10:18 AM, cbwang888 (29.74) wrote:

7footmoose

 

Cost cutting can't last long and it will actually hurt the economy as people are out of jobs and companies are spending less...

Only few things that justify current stock market valuation that I can think of: low interest and dropping USD

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#3) On July 22, 2009 at 10:27 AM, TDRH (99.98) wrote:

http://ml-implode.com/ here is another link to track failures.

 Been expecting "the 2nd dip" or next leg down for some time, but it has not materialized.

-Consumers hit hard by rising unemployment, high debt and loss of equity in their homes - yet retailers are still rising. 70+% of GDP, but the market continues to climb. 

That said I hope I am wrong.

 

 

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