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Mark910 (< 20)

Buen' dia' July 29, Comparing jobless data from the last Recession

Recs

36

July 29, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: COF , IWM

As we slept the dollar continued to strengthen.  Asian markets were down while Europe’s markets were higher.  The futures indicate that the bull will not play today.  If it makes you feel any better Ben Bernanke’s assets also lost money last year as his personal filing shows he was down 29%.  I am short the Russel Index and COF, for the record.  Thought about a long V/MA play but even holding my nose didn’t help me pull the trigger.  Did some research on Jobs data and compared it to the most recent recession and here is what I found.

Last Month the unemployment data rolled over; that is to say it quit increasing at a steeper rate each month.  Everyone agrees it will increase but it should level off now that the slope is decreasing.  We hit 9.5 and most believe we will get to 10 or more.  What does this mean for the recession and more specifically the Market.  If we look at the last recession in 2001-2 and pick out the exact same point of inflexion it occurred in Dec/2001 –Jan/2002.  Unemployment had shot up to almost 6% but had slowed its rate of increase.  It would continue to climb slowly and max’d out at 6.3.  Look at a chart of the S&P on that date and you will see it looks eerily close to today’s chart.  At that time the S&P had fallen from the 1500s to the 900s and was now back up to 11-1200.  I don’t have to tell you that after the initial euphoria lifted the market fell back down almost 400 points by the end of the year.  This time around the data is worse but the charts say the same thing.  We have had the initial crash.  We see the light at the end of the jobs tunnel.  The market reacts with a partial recovery only to fall again as history repeats itself.  Yep the light at the end of the tunnel was the recession train.

 

chart     -    http://www.economagic.com/mgif/M960350500731947113682911992.gif

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 29, 2009 at 8:59 AM, binve (24.90) wrote:

More excellent thoughts, thanks Mark!

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#2) On July 29, 2009 at 9:41 AM, MastiffFool (< 20) wrote:

Mark, good perspective on where we are heading. I wish people would pull their heads out of the sand before it's too late.

Rec #11 from me!   :)

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#3) On July 29, 2009 at 11:50 AM, tonylogan1 (29.45) wrote:

+1

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#4) On July 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote:

stuff that happenedg or was said between September 2001 (bottom) and December 2002 (top). emphasis mine.

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Dec. 19 – GREENSPAN: "The limited evidence since the November easing has supported our view that the U.S. economy has been working its way through a soft patch. And the patch has certainly been soft." (New York Economic Club)
Dec. 10 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Officials, expecting economic growth to accelerate again in a few months, leave their key 1.25 percent target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a policymaking meeting.
Nov. 20 – GREENSPAN: "Despite the draining impact of a loss of $8 trillion of stock market wealth, a sharp contraction in capital investment and, of course, the tragic events of September 11, 2001, our economy is still growing. Importantly, despite significant losses, no major U.S. financial institution has been driven to default." (Council on Foreign Relations)
Nov. 13 – GREENSPAN: "I know there's a presumption that if you make those tax cuts permanent it will add stimulus to the economy. I doubt it." "I think only that the market's already presumed that they are permanent and that the only thing that probably could have a negative effect later on is that when the markets find out they may be wrong. But that's not a short-term issue." (Congressional Joint Economic Committee)
Nov. 6 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Officials cut the Fed's target for overnight interest rates by a half-percentage point to 1.25 percent.
Sept. 24 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Officials leave their target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a policymaking meeting, saying they expect a pickup in economic growth.
Aug. 30 – GREENSPAN: "As events evolved, we recognized that it was very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact -- that is, when its bursting confirmed its existence." (Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic conference)
Aug. 13 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Policymakers acknowledge that economic growth slowed but make no change in short-term interest rates.
July 17 – GREENSPAN: "The trouble, unfortunately, is that the shock of what has happened will keep malfeasance down for a while. But human nature being what it is -- and memories fade -- it will be back. And it is important that at that time appropriate legislation be in place to inhibit activities that we would perceive to be inappropriate." (House Financial Services Committee)
April 17 – GREENSPAN: "Prospects for low inflation and inflation expectations in the period ahead mean that the Federal Reserve should have ample opportunity to adjust policy to keep inflation pressures contained once sustained, solid, economic expansion is in view." (Congress's Joint Economic Committee)
March 7 – GREENSPAN: "We have seen encouraging signs in recent days that underlying trends in final demand are strengthening," Greenspan said. But, he added, "the dimensions of the pickup [in consumer and business spending] remain uncertain." (Senate Banking Committee)
Feb. 27 – GREENSPAN: "Despite the disruptions engendered by the terrorist attacks of September 11, the typical dynamics of the business cycle have reemerged and are prompting a firming in economic activity." (House Financial Services Committee)
Jan. 24 – GREENSPAN: "There have been signs recently that some of the forces that have been restraining the economy over the past year are starting to diminish and that activity is beginning to firm." (Senate Budget Committee)
Jan. 11 – GREENSPAN: "There are sound reasons for concluding that the long-run picture remains bright, and even recent signals about the current course of the economy have turned from unremittingly negative through the late fall of last year to a far more mixed set of signals recently." (San Francisco speech)
Dec. 11 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Acting for the 11th time in 2001 to counter the nation's deepening recession, policymakers reduce their target for overnight interest rates by a quarter-percentage point to 1.75 percent.
Nov. 6 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Officials, clearly worried that the U.S. economy may be spiraling downward into recession in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, once again reduce their target for overnight interest rates by a half-percentage point to 2.00 percent.
Oct. 17 – GREENSPAN: "We have to be cautious in looking at whatever we do to make sure that the stimulus we do create is net, on balance, a stimulus." "I think what's crucially important in this discussion is to make the judgment first." "Are you embarking on a tax policy whose purpose is to basically move production from the future to the present, or are you trying to increase the overall rate of growth of the economy over the long run? What you do in both of those different scenarios is really remarkably different." (Joint Economic Committee)
Oct. 2 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION: Policymakers cut their target for overnight interest rates another half-percentage point to 2.5 percent.
Sept. 20 – GREENSPAN: "While there is an obviously, very strongly desired sense to move rapidly, it's far more important to be right than quick" (Senate Banking Committee)
Sept. 17 – FEDERAL RESERVE ACTION:Officials cut their target for overnight interest rates to 3.0 percent.
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(from here)

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