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brickcityman (31.39)

Why this Market is like my 8 year old

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August 12, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: XLF

My daughter got a little later start at riding a bicycle than her peers...  Which of course meant that learning to ride was scarier to her because she was a little bigger and a little less fearless.  Having memories of badly skinned knees from early attempts weighed heavily on her.

 

At first we tried training wheels, but that didn't seem to help...  Her fundamentals weren't improving, if anything she was learning bad habits.  She soon got discouraged.  Then I bought this special handle thingy which allowed me to run behind and help her find her balance.  It was promising, but also very taxing on me.  Also she kept getting scared that I would let go when she wasn't ready, also she found it all to easy just to let me push her around.  So we went back to training wheels again...

 

In relative terms going back to training wheels seemed like a step up I guess.  Because she then started to take more of a interest in "riding" her bike again.  But everyone knew that the only thing preventing alot of skinned knees was an artifice that would someday need to be removed.  But of course, whenever I broached the subject of removing the training wheels she got scared, knowing full well that she had not yet gotten the fundamentals of riding down.  So on we went for quite a while, training wheels being what they are they started to show a great deal of wear, but without them she could not "ride".

 

Eventually there came a point where embarrassment and the feeling of being held back compelled her to let one of the neighborhood kids teach her to ride for real.  It wasn't easy, but she forced herself to do it.

 

So if you've read this far you might be wondering... what the heck is he talking about?  I submit to you that we are sadly just happy with training wheels, bragging about going out for a ride but not yet able to do it on our own.  Enjoy the "rally"  I know I am as I slowly draw down profits waiting to get serious about re-investing once the training wheels come off.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 12, 2009 at 3:33 PM, brickcityman (31.39) wrote:

Sorry for the horrible grammar in that... that's what I get for trying to  do too many things at once...

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#2) On August 12, 2009 at 4:27 PM, alexxlea (73.02) wrote:

I used to ride with training wheels for the longest time. I was the oldest kid on the training wheels on the block. But when I stopped using training wheels something strange happened. My balance was perfect. The only thing that was holding me back was my fear. I found that I could ride around the block and turn corners without even holding the bars, I would just lean like you would on a motorcycle.

 

 

But riding bikes isn't the stock market and we're not going to rocket into the stratosphere after this rally is done with.

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#3) On August 12, 2009 at 4:59 PM, brickcityman (31.39) wrote:

I think you missed my point.  The market is reacting positively to not having the training wheels taken off.  You could chalk it all up to unneccesary fear but I think many would cite fundamental weaknesses as well.

 

Would the banking system be nearly as successful (in real terms or in stock price terms) if it had to contend with realistic interest rates right now?

 

The real question is how long will Ken Lewis, Vik Pandit, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, and the rest continue to hold their head up while teetering around on tax-payer funded training wheels.  And even more importantly how can investors feel good about buying shares in companies requiring training wheels?

 

We've taken on the psychology of a scared 8 year old...  Daddy let me keep my training wheels for now, and promises me that some day I will be able to ride like a big girl...  So I'm just happy going on about my business, teetering, teetering, teetering...

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#4) On August 12, 2009 at 5:29 PM, outoffocus (23.72) wrote:

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