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anticitrade (99.49)

JAKK could've been a contender..... It could've had class and been somebody... Real Class... Instead of a bum, let's face it, thats what it was.

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August 31, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: WEL , EROC , GTLS

I have been pretty overwhelmed with actual work the last couple weeks, but wanted to provide a quick update.  Several new developments occurred over the weekend with the input of new financial statements into the anticitrade model.
 
With the new statements from JAKK (I company I owned and probably shouldn't have) they were downgraded to a sell by my model.  So, I sold them off today at 13.34 for a 3% gain.  Nothing to write home about.  In my strategy I choose stocks for "home run potential", when I no longer believe they have that potential I dump them and find something that does.

Anticitrade to JAKK:
I always had a bet down for you. You saw some money.

JAKK:
(agonized) You don't understand! I could've been a contender. I could've had class
and been somebody. Real class. Instead of a bum, let's face it, which is what I am.

That pretty much sums up my relationship with JAKK.  He could’ve been a contender… Maybe one day he will be.  But not today.  Replacing JAKK in my portfolio is EROC. 

I like EROC because:  My model found some favorable trends in their financial statements.  And they are currently selling at about 24% their price a year ago.  Honestly, this company is a bit of a gamble.  They have pretty inconsistent profitability and haven’t done a particularly good job of converting revenue into profits.  HOWEVER, I don’t think their stock price has much room to fall and holds high potential for explosive growth with the right circumstances.  Time will tell.

In other news, WEL is finally pulling its weight in my portfolio.  Although it is up 18% today, I plan on holding out until it gets to about 2.50. 
The rest of my portfolio is:

Ticker Gain since purchase
AMED   42.2%
ISYS  -27.25%  (one day…..)
TBSI  -0.49%
MTA  23.2%
PRGN  -3.47%
WCC  -10.48%
KNDL  4.35%
GRT  45%
ARKR  42.28%
IPHS  24.9%
PTEN  23.83%
GTLS  214.73%
MRO  32.74%
CFK  38.26%
ESV  17.1%
AIRT  .1%
WEL  13.65%
EROC  0%

These picks are not presented as recommendations.  But are provided to give accountability for a “player” who puts his money where his mouth is.  (Also to owners of JAKK, I still think the stock has potential, it just isnt for me)

Any thoughts on EROC?

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 31, 2009 at 2:28 PM, mikecart1 (98.00) wrote:

EROC seems great at first glance.  But not a fan of volume.  I heard others get PRGN too.  They also lost money.  What was your reason to get it?  I usually stay out of the shipping industry.

I am catching up to your score btw.

:D

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#2) On August 31, 2009 at 2:36 PM, ocsurf (64.57) wrote:

You're one of the few who does 'put his money where his mouth is'. I wish more CAPS players did this. Keep up the good work.

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#3) On August 31, 2009 at 3:23 PM, anticitrade (99.49) wrote:

Mike,

PRGN....  Since the market collapse the transportation sector has relatively perfomred 11% below the S&P500.  So as a sector, it may have more growth potential than the average market.  Inside this sector, I own two companies: PRGN and TBSI.  Both these companies are down about 72% in the last year!  However, on an annual basis both these companies are still operating at a profit which is more than I can say for the majority of the market.  PRGN has the better performance over the last several quarters.  SG&A expense for PRGN has been dropping each quarter while, judging from increasing depreciation expense, investment into PPE has been increasing.  My big holdup with PRGN is I only have a few years of financial statements to work with. 

Congratulations Mike on your strong run.  I have noticed that my system has increasingly recommended more low beta stocks which may be an indication of an overvalued market.  It will be interesting to see how my score moves over the next few months.  I glanced through your picks and I like a lot of your green thumbs.

OCSurf, Thanks!  I find I make better trading decisions when I discuss my thinking in a blog.  It prevents me from investing solely on my gut.

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#4) On September 02, 2009 at 10:59 AM, darroj (99.26) wrote:

I never liked JAKK - at least you didn't lose money on it :)

EROC has a nice book value (8.312/share according to yahoo) but I worry about their financials - particularly 2M in cash, 804M in debt. Its certainly risky, but if natural gas recovers, this should too. The dividend cut should help preserve some cash which they definitely need. I personally bought some ERF as a natural gas play, but that won't turn into a homerun stock like you're looking for. If people are looking for safer ways into natural gas, that's what I'd recommend looking at.Congrats on your continuing success Anticitrade!

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#5) On September 09, 2009 at 3:10 PM, mikecart1 (98.00) wrote:

Hey your anticitrade site doesn't let me click My Watchlist.  It comes up with that white internet page error.

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#6) On September 09, 2009 at 6:04 PM, oncebittenx2shy (82.08) wrote:

I like your call eroc

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#7) On September 09, 2009 at 7:15 PM, anticitrade (99.49) wrote:

Mike,

I just checked the site and my watchlist still works.  Let me know if this continues and I will try to get it fixed.

Thanks oncebitten, its a bit of a stretch...  But these picks have payed off well for me in the past (like SAY).

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#8) On September 09, 2009 at 11:56 PM, mikecart1 (98.00) wrote:

Just tried it again and I get:

 

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, admin@anticitrade.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

 

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