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bridgeboy0 (99.97)

Alstry's Margin of Error

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August 31, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: WR , O , NG

I'm back from vacation and catching up on stuff and what should I find but this post that I've been following since May has a new post on it: MOAP!!!! The MOTHER of ALL PROJECTION  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=199274&t=01002130057764754273 

While glancing through the posts on it to find what the newest response was, the following caught my eye (written by Alstry):

Goldbaby,

You know I have a lot of respect for your natural talent.....you have a higher level of medi-chloines than just about anyone else in CAPs.....but natural talent only goes so far without training and experience to get the full benefit of the Force......how about below 555 by the end of 9.99 and watch a True Jedi Master at work??????

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So anyone have any guesses what Alstry's margin for error on his prediction will be?  Obviously SPY at 555 by the end of 9.09 (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he meant the end of 9.09 and the 9.99 was a typo that he's since clarified).  So how close to being right (because Alstrynomics is all about being right) do you think Alstry will fall?  My own guess is that he'll be off by at least 75% (I know it is conservative, but I really don't want to be wrong on my estimate since being right is so important to some people).  But he can still be considered right as long as your margin of error is sufficient to take the source into account.

Hey, wait a minute!  Maybe Alstry was talking about the Russell 2000 instead of the SPY!  In that case, Alstry is some kind of Nostradamus and we should really pay attention to what he has to say.  I have never considered that possibility.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 31, 2009 at 3:14 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

If you're allowing a 75% margin of error, you're betting that the S&P 500 won't decline by more than 4.5% in September? I don't think the S&P will fall to 555 in the next month, but I wouldn't bet against a 5%+ decline sometime soon. Why not narrow your margin of error to .0075%?...they you know you'll be right!

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#2) On August 31, 2009 at 4:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

haha, I'm looking for more on the order of 10-15% correction in the short term.  So looking for the dow to be around the 8800 mark at the end of Sept.  I think that's a more reasonable level for the DJIA, but if it goes lower...that's be even better.

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#3) On August 31, 2009 at 5:14 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.97) wrote:

 davejh23,

The S&P may fall more than 971 before the end of September (that is 75% higher than Alstry's estimate), but I expect it to finish the month above that mark.

But, you're right.  Just to be safe, I should only have said that Alstry would be off by more than 50%.  So remember, for any future prognostications from the keyboard of Alstry there is a +/- 50% margin of error. 

I'd love for the S&P to finish above 1110 on September 30th, so we could just bump that margin of error to +/- 100%.

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#4) On August 31, 2009 at 6:46 PM, bridgeboy0 (99.97) wrote:

The S&P may fall more than 971 before the end of September

OOPS!  That should be the S&P may fall BELOW 971...

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