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AllStarPortfolio (59.48)

AllStarPortfolio - Two picks each for Top Players - LOTS OF NEW PICKS HERE!

Recs

11

September 22, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: STEC , MVG , SDTH

On September 21, 2009 at 11:14 PM, ChrisGraley (99.19) wrote:

Solaris asked to put forth a better pitch for this stock so here goes...

KV-A has currently.......

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 On September 22, 2009 at 2:15 AM, UltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Pitch for Molina Healthcare (MOH), timeframe 3 years

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TigerPack (99.98) wrote:

Solaris,

Here's my new pick for AllStar - YHOO

I love that pick Tiger, and the pitch. I am a little worried about losing some points in the coming bull, but there is no worry about the long term.

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 On September 15, 2009 at 10:33 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote:

SQNM

Port, you are always a little risky, and almost always right!

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On September 15, 2009 at 11:00 PM, ipfmanager (99.37) wrote:

I'm in.   COMV green thumb  please.

Too soon! (of course time will show you are right)

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 On September 16, 2009 at 2:14 AM, BravoBevo (100.00) wrote:

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Not long ago, TMF took notice of good ideas that they want to build into the CAPS game to make it better and more meaningful, including ASP’s model of focusing on allowing players to zero in on their best picks (out of their personal portfolio maximum of 200). According to TMFJake, one of the newer features to be rolled out later this year (perhaps in beta form) will be "Top Picks".  Allowing a second pick per participant allows ASP to reclaim some of the thunder that TMF wants. 

My second pick is the real estate giant General Growth Properties with the symbol GGWPQ.PK

Thanks for your compliments! Love your pick, and your pitch.

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************************  TO CHOOSE A STOCK FOR THIS PORTFOLIO READ BELOW

 TWO green thumb per person. Your best pick, and your BEST PITCH, please. All picks MUST have a pitch, and a time frame. Minimum Time Frame 6 months. Players are free to change the pick as often as caps permits.

   No Ultras (FAZ was picked before the discussion was finished, and will be closed soonish). No Bear ETFS. No .OB stocks. Only one .PK pick per player.

 To qualify for a pick you must:

 Have a RATING of more than 99 on the day of pick

   -OR-

 Be a "yes"man with a RATING of 97 or higher on the day of pick

   -AND-

 Have been a caps player for more than 6 months. 

    -OR-

Be in the Top Ten at the time of pitch, or have at one time been the Top Fool.

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There is also a shadow account at wallstreetsurvivor where we track with dollars, and compete against Top Bloggers on MSN. Each player gets $2,000 starting money to use as desired between the two picks. Fools who do not dictate their preferences for WSS will have the 'funds' handled by the AllStarPortfolio administrators (me).

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   To submit a pick Players should attach their pitch to a blog from this caps account. I will then copy that to the pitch on the stocks page, so that it will be visible on both the stock page and the quickstats page. I will of course place your name, and score at time of pick on the pitch.

You can name your stock here, for dibs (will hold for 7 days), but i will not post the stock until you have made your pitch, and picked a time frame, also.

I am willing to share the password with a few someones, if they would like, to facilitate timing.

******

There has already been some interest shown in making an 'Investment Vehicle' to work with this portfolio. We have opened a google group to discuss the possibility. To keep static to a minimum we have created it as a private group discussion. To be invited to the discussion, please send your screen name to allstarportfolio@gmail.com and ask for an invitation. Thanks.

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 -solaris

PS. FEEL FREE TO CLOSE YOUR STOCKS. LET ME KNOW HERE, AND I WILL CLOSE THEM. I CAN SET LIMIT STOPS, ALSO.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 23, 2009 at 5:41 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

Hi,

please add SQNM to the allstarportfolio here.

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#2) On September 23, 2009 at 5:42 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

(as many as you can and no price limit)

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#3) On September 23, 2009 at 9:16 PM, SolarisKing (27.57) wrote:

1,400 dollars, 233 shares. Thank you sir for your continued support.

-solaris

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#4) On September 23, 2009 at 10:43 PM, ChrisGraley (99.72) wrote:

Warning to followers of the portfolio...

I am currently leaning toward believing that another market correction is coming shortly that will have an adverse effect on commodities. I still believe that we will be in stagflation and FRMSF.PK is the pick for the long term, but I believe that the market will panic on the next downturn and take a while to sort itself out.

It appears that in today's end of day sell off, the market took a deflationary view of the FED's announcement. I actually had an inflationary view of the announcement myself, but I was more worried about a change in interest rates. The market seemed to be concerned with a slow down of the government buying crap financial instruments. I'm in belief that the money that we are pumping into crap isn't productive money anyway, since the financial institutions hang on to every penny that they receive instead of spurring the economy. 

I've been thinking about this for a while today and then it hit me. Right now the major players in this market like GS or JPM have been playing fast and loose in the market. They have been doing this for a bunch of reasons...

1) There is still a lot of major money on the sideline and they have more control over the market.

2) They have a government backstop for protection. Specifically relaxed accounting rules that let them get creative.

3) They have convinced the market that their own stock is strong because they have support from the government.

4) They seem to have access to an unlimited supply of dark money. (Although I won't imply that this has anything to do with the money that they simply can't find over at the FED.)

5) They have the ability to manipulate their own stock prices in the market, as long as people still believe #3.

It's when I realized that last item, that things started to come together. Here's the problem, they don't have to pump just their own prices, they have to pump the prices of the sector to insure investor confidence. Some of the money on the sideline is going to figure out that stocks like Citi and AIG can't afford a government slowdown in the purchasing of crap. AIG is making another offering just so they can survive with the current pace of purchasing crap. Remember that it has already been established with the average Joe on the street that AIG is too big to fail.

So they have 4 problems now...

1) They were overextended to begin with and with the hit of government purchasing less of their crap, they will have to close some positions.

2) They have to protect themselves from a negative effect of the sector and will have to close even more positions.

3) They have to prop the sector which will force them to add positions in AIG and Citi, which will force them to close even more positions.

4) The money on the sideline is well aware that a slow down in crap buying will effect the sector. They are also aware that crap sellers have been manipulating the market.

I have given everyone my thought process up to this point and I'm an admitted conspiracy theorist in this market, so take it all for what you think it's worth.

Now here is how I'm going to play it...

I have a feeling that the market manipulators are still going to fight. Since they have a weakened position, they will try to boost the financials first and try to cause a little of the inflation that they have been suppressing up until this point. This will allow them to boost the market while withdrawing from some of their positions. I'm looking for a rise in the financials in the short term for validation. If I don't see that then I'm taking it as capitulation and selling every green thumb that I can. If I do see it, I'm waiting for the inflation pump to sell most of my green thumbs. I'm thinking that the money on the sideline will overcome the puppet masters this time.

I am giving you this information before I take action because I realize that my view is a little more extreme and I'm trying to allow you to make your own decision. Once the correction occurs, the first thing I'm planning on buying is commodities and particularly silver, sugar, and fertilizer.

Solaris I will let you know as quick as possible when I want to close the pick. For the sake of the portfolio I may close it sooner than other commodities because I know that you may not see it for a while. For the followers of this portfolio, I will probably close this pick in my own portfolio after I close it in All-Stars. If you are online a lot and you like to take risks, you can try to copy me for a few more points.

One last thing to think about with FRMSF.PK is that at any time they are due to announce a production increase due to getting their 3rd mine fully online. Since their production will almost double, it's a big announcement. This could happen in the time between when I sell commodities and when I buy them back. If you are a long term investor, you can chose to stay in the stock and ride it out. You have a good chance of overtaking me in the stock since I'm basically doing market timing. I am expecting a big short term turn in commodities though, and this is a volatile stock. To me the better choice is to find a better place to buy than to hold a volatile stock in a downturn,but you may think otherwise.

I do hope that this helps.

Chris.

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