Will sanity finally be making a return?
September 23, 2009
– Comments (11) |
RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQQ
, DIA
On CAPS alone today there are about 10 players calling the market top. In the blogosphere in general the top calls are everywhere. Of course its many of the same people that have been calling tops the whole way up but a 20 point reversal when we are this far away from the moving averages on the S&P makes it a pretty easy target. I think I agree with the consensus here even though I usually love to be a contrarian. The last retail sheep has probably already bought at this point.
Unlike the other internet folks though I can be honest on how wrong I had this market because I have nothing to sell you and no agenda... I started dumping longs at 850 and got aggressively short at 888. We went higher at first, then back below 900 and when we broke back above 900 I covered everything and went 100% cash as posted here in my last post in early July. I thought I was covering the at THE top selling FAZ in the 5’s (before the 10-1 reverse split) and SRS around $20, not to mention all the put positions… Thank god I did what I did….Had I been stubborn and NOT covered I would seriously be broke at this point. (with the money I traded with at least)
Brings me back to a saying I have heard many times… “Its not how many times you are right or wrong its how long you STAY wrong”
Of course I have done the check of how much money I would have made had I held all the longs I bought in the 600’s and 700’s all the way up to 1080, but I take solace in the fact that my 401K is up this year and up over the last 3 and 5 year periods… Not too many people can say that. It is because I had the balls to buy this market near the bottom like mad when no one else was buying and I knew NOT to be in during 2007.
Going back in time to when the market was in the high 800’s this spring and EVERYONE was saying to short the market (including yours truly), I remember vividly listening to and interview with Robert Prechter. One of those Fast Money idiots asked him “Is it time to sell this bear market rally”.
His response was classic…. “As long as you are calling it a bear market rally it is not time to sell it yet, when you start arguing that it is NOT a bear market rally THEN it is time to sell”.
How true did that turn out to be. As I have been out of this market for months watching it go higher and higher every day I saw more interviews and now if someone says it’s a “bear market rally” they now get laughed at by the same people.
I could go on and I have seen many things I wanted to blog about over the last few months but my life has been very busy recently and I have not gotten around to writing a blog.
One thing I did want to blog about is how the Stagflationists have the winning ticket in the “What will happen to the market in 2009” sweepstakes.
I remember back in October 2008 when I posted:
“I’m the last man alive in the stagflationist Alamo”
This is what I had to say then:
I realize we are in the middle of the biggest deflationary panic in my lifetime. I also realize every single stagflationist has had their CAPS score go below zero, mine is right there.
Stagflation is “an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time.”
This is exactly what we are getting in the longer run.
In November I reaffirmed my belief in Stagflation with:
“The speed bump on the road to inflation” and said you needed to buy
SLW at $3.70
AUY at $4.75
GDX at $ 21.35
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=107406&t=01001808419327792238
I also called the bottom in oil at $33.50
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=121461&t=01001808419327792238
Anyway, the point of all of this is I was ranting about stagflation when it was NOT cool to be ranting about stagflation (late 2008) and stagflation is EXACTLY what we are getting. Official unemployment near 10% (with real unemployment near 20%) yet even with the economy at a standstill Gold is over $1000 and Oil is in the 70’s. Plus the dollar gets the crap beat out of it every day and is back near its all time lows.
Of course if the market is to reverse here like it seems it might we are going to get a pullback in oil and gold and the dollar will rise… But we have seen the lows in these commodities and the high’s in the dollar. Stagflation is here to stay and although I may have been “the last man alive in the stagflationist Alamo” the Alamo held!
Anyway, I will try to muse about my market and more importantly my economic thoughts on a bi-weekly/monthly basis like have been for the last few years again in the upcoming months.
Terms & Conditions
RSS Headlines
Fool UK