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anticitrade (99.48)

Yo Bulls and Bears, I’m really happy for you…Imma let you finish. But Anticitrade had one of the best stock lists of all time! One of the best stock lists of all time!

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October 22, 2009 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: ANT , ICI , TRAD

On March 31st my small team completed the watchlist feature of our website.  At that time I added the top 100 stocks from the model to my watchlist as presented by the website. 

These stocks and their respective returns since that day are:

GRT(133%), SAY(258%), AMED(56%), FRD(21%), IPHS(90%), EDUC(35%), HS(63%), CMKG(-4%), AOB(16%), AFAM(81%), NOVA(117%), KSW(66%), TITN(47%), GTIV(77%), CFK(68%), SPAN(73%), CEL(50%), JCTCF(44%), BOLT(61%), BARE(216%), GTLS(184%), AVCA(224%), GSIT(51%), JOEZ(312%), UL(62%), CMTL(33%), WCC(64%), SPN(89%), OIS(180%), ARKR(65%), MTA(104%), AHCI(118%), PSYS(66%), GHM(87%), PPS(70%), HUM(44%), X(96%), RDEN(132%), TC(214%), WWW(74%), LHO(251%), NGA(85%), BOOM(129%), ARP(101%), SIF(143%), FSYS(177%), SURG(98%), KOP(114%), TGH(160%), TRLG(145%), IIIN(74%), BJS(106%), FVE(246%), HHS(167%), KTEC(29%), ACI(80%), HLF(158%), DAR(99%), MIND(84%), JAKK(28%), ARCC(108%), SVA(403%), NM(127%), PKD(231%), SLI(96%), HXM(228%), AFFX(130%), AIMC(184%), AMOT(47%), AWC(93%), CAE(-51%), CYNO(98%), FTK(23%), GRO(151%), HHGP(234%), HSKA(77%), INXI(203%), MEAS(130%), MTL(400%), NCS(-15%), NOOF(25%), NUTR(78%), RMTR(152%), TATTF(65%), WCG(123%), XING(66%), CREL(87%), KHD(52%), SPRD(288%), QXM(77%), SIMO(46%), CTCM(322%), FACE(37%), PACR(14%), VCGH(32%), ZINC(108%), GSIG(-9%), EVK(-4%)

(That is 98 of the 100, 2 of the companies were sold during that time period, 1 was SBN (I know this one because I owned it and netted a return of 130.5% and I don’t know what the other was…. Seriously I don’t….)

The average return of those 98 stocks is 110% since that day.  Only 4% of those stocks have had negative returns since then.  During this period the S&P 500 increased 38.78%, 82 of the 98 stocks outperformed the S&P500 over the same period.

So what does this mean going forward?  Since April I have made the results of my model free and publicly available.  While I would like to continue providing these results for free, it is inconsistent with my belief that the system works and thus creates value.  At this time I am considering implementing a subscription format to the website or starting a small private investment club (although, if the right opportunity presented itself I would be willing to sell out).

Since it will be a few months before we are ready to become a subscription website, it may be a good time to test us out for free. 

Feel free leave feedback, comments, or suggestions as comments or email me at spencer@anticitrade.com.

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 22, 2009 at 4:55 PM, anchak (99.76) wrote:

You are doing a valuable job! Keep it up

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#2) On October 22, 2009 at 5:01 PM, SkepticalOx (99.20) wrote:

The site is very useful, especially as a watchlist and a starting point for more due-diligence. I would be very interested to see how your system performs in the long-term though (you only had to face a rising market so far), so even if you have a subscription-based model going forward, it would be nice to know what the performance of your picks are.

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#3) On October 22, 2009 at 5:36 PM, davejh23 (33.19) wrote:

You've mentioned previously that these are mostly high beta stocks, correct?  If the market turns and declines 38%, there's a good chance that your list would provide negative 110% returns.  I'm not predicting that the market is going to crash, but IF it does, I think this would destroy your new subscription site. 

Do you know what the performance of your list has been over the last month?  I added every ratable stock from the top 30 to my CAPS portfolio last month, and I recently closed all the picks as a large majority of the picks were down.  I believe one pick was up close to 15%, three or so were up 1-3%, some were down 1-3%, and several were down about 15%.  I probably should have been more patient, but I was thinking that all of the picks would underperform if the market tanks.

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#4) On October 22, 2009 at 5:45 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

If the market turns and declines 38%, there's a good chance that your list would provide negative 110% returns.

138 -> 100 is not a "38% decline".

It is VERY difficult to lose more than 100% on a long position.

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#5) On October 22, 2009 at 6:16 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Dave,

I would say that the model naturally recommends high beta stocks after a significant decline in the market, and low beta stoks after the market makes a strong rally.  While I have seen this transition occur since March, several high beta stocks still appear undervalued. 

That said, I was in the market during January and February (although my website was not developed yet) and I had a rough few weeks.  I believe this was a consequence of two stage fall.  The first fall indicated a large chunk of stocks were undervalued, these same set of stocks were hit again during the second fall.  However, that portfolio (200K of real money) rebounded and actually produced significant returns by summer (well above the S&P 500).  (I could quantify that but it wont be a trivial task since that portfolio changed hands).

While I haven't been watching the top 30 over the last month per se, my CAPS profile is based on the top 200.  And it has been consistent with the S&P 500 (only about a 2% gain in the last month).  For the recored, it seems the model performs best after earnings releasses.

Anyway, thanks for your comment.  It's not magic so you don't always get the results as quickly as you may like.

Skeptical and Anchak,

Thanks!  I am glad it has provided value for you!

Port,

When I said the "best stock list of all time" I seriously considered saying "(with the exception of Ports list... Which is pretty amazing)".

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#6) On October 22, 2009 at 6:24 PM, davejh23 (33.19) wrote:

Good point...that sounded quite stupid (I guess you could lose more than 100% in a margin account)...you get the point though.  These aren't defensive stocks.  If the S&P crashes back to March lows, these stocks will return to their March lows...a much greater fall.  The site offers a valuable tool, but I wouldn't want to sign up paying customers just as the market starts to fall...the model might work consistently in a rising market, but over long periods of time it might provide inferior results.  I know anticitrade has discussed the difficulty in back testing the model, so who knows?

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#7) On October 22, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

Congrats Anticitrade!

if you do go pay make sure you thin out your business plan ( e.g. marketing/monetization/customer service plans).

Believe it or not that there are more reasosn than performance why someone would want/noot wnat to buy something like you might offer.

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#8) On October 22, 2009 at 10:56 PM, TMFJake (96.47) wrote:

Well done!

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#9) On October 23, 2009 at 10:28 AM, Chromantix (98.59) wrote:

+1 Just for the header... lol

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#10) On October 23, 2009 at 11:35 AM, darroj (99.30) wrote:

Excellent work! ISYS has seen a nice pop recently too :) You're doing a great job and I really like the website. Best of luck!

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#11) On October 23, 2009 at 5:14 PM, fmahnke (97.42) wrote:

Anticitrade,

It's a great tool. I periodically look at your Cap score on big up or down days and it does seem high on beta, Still.often your model for ideas,

Am wondering if you've incorporated liquidation value concepts into the model as these portfolios are doing well.

Of course soft skills can and should also be incorporated in my opinion .I've looked at BIDZ and found that they are a jewlrey retialer run my convicted felons.  Not to say they are dishonest,  but it may explain the dissconnet between valuation and performance,

 

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#12) On October 27, 2009 at 12:15 AM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

fmahnke

I am actually going to do a post soon about how the average beta value for my recommendations has changed.  Basically, it is about 1.04 right now for all the stocks I consider undervalued (from a conservative basis).

I have actually been pretty busy over the last few months and haven't given my liquidation experiment the attention it deserves (thanks for the reminder).  I have the functionality all built, I just haven't incorporated it into my composite valuation yet.  Ideally I would carefully evaluate my 10 current factors and determine which adds the least value and replace it with a new liquidation factor.  For the reminder here are the current undervalued companies based on the "Justliquidation" analysis.... Hey I will even add them to the picks for that caps portfolio.....

 

VISN(23158%) MAD(1062%) GSIG(687%) CABL(561%) XING(495%) NWD(337%) SSN(271%) SIG(208%) CTHR(164%) AWX(158%) MEAD(145%) JAG(138%) PINN(138%) PGLA(137%) CRC(134%) GAI(133%) LOAN(127%) GBR(123%) VRTA(121%) ENWV(108%) ECGI(103%) GSAT(90%) QXM(87%) TV(85%) GU(81%) TORM(79%) UAHC(76%) SYMX(76%) AMCE(75%) CEP(75%) AVTR(73%) CNIC(72%) IOT(72%) HMNA(70%) PARL(69%) TIII(68%) SYI(67%) ARCW(67%) FFHL(60%) TAIT(59%) HRSH(59%) FMTI(55%) FORD(54%) FMD(53%) BMR(53%) NLST(53%) WEX(52%) ORS(49%) NCTY(49%) GRO(47%) NTZ(46%) CUO(45%) TRT(45%) PRCP(44%) LJPC(44%) NINE(43%) TGAL(42%) MACE(42%) ADGF(41%) ORXE(40%) RCMT(37%) TRAC(37%) HIHO(36%) CNVR(36%) TTIL(29%) TSRI(28%) PIII(28%) CAPS(27%) ACLS(27%) CONN(27%) MIM(27%) NRGN(26%) INSM(25%) TGIS(24%) MSC(24%) HLYS(22%) MGT(21%) INPH(21%) UUU(20%) LTON(18%) QBAK(18%) PRLS(17%) ZAP(17%) XJT(16%) ACTS(16%) BAA(15%) CVR(15%) KAZ(15%) RMX(15%) AHC(14%) DITC(14%) BDR(14%) DSWL(12%) EDCI(12%) EDGW(12%) SLTC(12%) VPF(10%) LDIS(10%) TFCO(10%) KDE(9%) IKAN(9%) FRD(9%) KRY(8%) IDSY(8%) STRC(7%) XPRT(7%) TECUA(7%) DYII(6%) LOOK(6%) TECUB(6%) MSN(6%) WTT(6%) GENC(5%) SIMG(5%) GRVY(5%) CSPI(4%) NUHC(4%) CNTF(4%) TBAC(4%) ATHX(3%) OBAS(2%) PTIX(2%) VOXX(2%) TRID(2%) MPAC(2%) SGMA(2%) ASB(2%) AXTI(1%) PDII(1%) NTII(0%) IFON(0%) Report this comment
#13) On October 27, 2009 at 1:12 AM, checklist34 (99.92) wrote:

antici, nice work.

i don't have a model, ... and I'm mostly just "holding", with hedges, in my personal account now, but...

i think that many of the most undervalued stocks remain high beta companies that were in the slaughterhouse... now only in the toilet.... in march.  We will see.

I don't recognize really any of your recommendations which leads me to believe that your model contains some measure of quality (low debt, current/past/future profitability, and so forth).  Perhaps it tends to disfavor cyclics?

My whole portfolio, practically, are companies with some flaw.  Some debt, financials, cyclicals at or just past a time that was most horrifically awful for cyclicals.  Stuff like that.  

3.2x my money since S&P 920 at the turn of the year, 4+x since the march bottom.  not too bad.

now that noted...  buying these things has left me with several stocks I'm not entirely interested in holding for the long term.  lol

oh well.  

onward and upward, or sideways, or down, but eventually upward.  :)

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#14) On October 27, 2009 at 12:31 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

checklist,

I agree that many high beta stocks still haven't seen an appropriate adjustment to their stock price. 

For the record, I don't recognize any of my liquidation based recommendations either.  This model just spews information out...  Most of those tickers are not pickable on caps.

A big piece of my standard model is an individualized forecast of all the items on their income statement and balance sheet.  Consequently, a lot of those value factors become relavent. 

3.2x your money is pretty incredible (certainly better than I have acheived).  It wil be a little hard for me to accept run of the mill abnormal profits after this huge rally.

Also I like your quote: "onward and upward, or sideways, or down, but eventually upward"  Sounds like the design for Willy Wonkas glass elevator.

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