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anticitrade (99.48)

A few real money trades, and two new test portfolios!

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November 02, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GME , SII

It has been a while since any of my real money positions reached valuation.  Howver, with the new earnings announcements I sold 2 of my positions today each for about a 50% profit.

The stocks I sold were ESV and PTEN.  Both are now fairly priced from the conservative evaluation of my automated system.  I replaced these stocks with SII and GME. 

I chose SII because both the stocks I sold were in the energy sector and I wanted to retain a strong position in that sector.  In addition to SII being highly undervalued according to my system, I think the calculated fundamental price of 45.68 is not unresonable given the stocks history.

GME is a little more risky in my opinion.  I think that Game Stop is an excellent store (I shop their frequently) and I think people have over-estimated ganers willingness to buy electronic copies of new games.  I am hoping to see a strong spike in earnings this christmas season and sell them early next year..... But that really depends on how my valuation for the company changes during that time...  I currently value GME at 51.80, which is a little over double their current price.

Also I created two new portfolios to try to better manage my investment risk.  Both antictrademix and anticitrademix2 are a 50:50 mix of red and green thumb picks from my system.  However anticitrademix2, does not pick any red thumbs that are rated 4 or 5 stars on CAPS. 

Currently antictrademix is scored: 60.39

and anticitrademix2 is scored: 65.85

To learn more about these porfolios see this blog.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 02, 2009 at 5:10 PM, ocsurf (64.56) wrote:

What's your thoughts on PRGN? Dry bulk shipping has been fluctuating alot.

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#2) On November 02, 2009 at 6:23 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

I have been in PRGN and TBSI for a little while now and so far I have not been impressed with the results.  My model still suggests they are each about 40% undervalued which is quite a bit lower than my original valuation which suggested they were 90% undervalued.  I say there is about a 50% chance they will pop sometime in the next 6 months and I will get a pretty decent payout (~30%), a 45% chance my valuation will slowly float down until it reaches their current price and I will sell and a 5% chance I will lose about 30%.  (These are all gut based probabilities).

I think when I eventually sell them I will regret the investment because of what my money could have done in an alternative investment and not because I lost my shirt on it.

Either way, I dont consider myself a speculative genius nor any kind of expert on dry bulk shipping (thank goodness....  what depressing thing it would be to be an expert in THAT!)

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#3) On November 03, 2009 at 12:54 AM, brianpivar (95.68) wrote:

I like your GME pick, I think its a good one, accroding to my valuations they have a forward p/e of roughly 8.4.  However, SII, doesn't look very undervalued to me, infact, I think it's actually a little bit overvalued.

I'm just wondering your reasoning for believing this stock can get to 45.68?

They have missed on their earnings in the last 4 quarters.

In 2008 their earnings were 3.78 per share for the entire year. 

In 2009 it's projected that earnings for the year will be .92

In 2010 it's estimated that earnings for the year will be 1.21

With all this being said the stock is down 20% year over year, and earnings are down 75% year over year. A year ago the stock was trading at roughly a 10 p/e now it is trading at roughly a 28 p/e.  

I'm just wondering what in your system is telling you to buy this stock, because according to my valuations this stock is currently overvalued.

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#4) On November 03, 2009 at 9:51 AM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

Thanks for the input, I will check the stock out when I get home and have access to the details of my analysis.

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#5) On November 03, 2009 at 2:15 PM, SkepticalOx (99.12) wrote:

EROC is pretty high up the list on the aggressive list. What are your opinions on that, especially that it's fortunes rely so much on the price of nat gas?

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#6) On November 03, 2009 at 3:20 PM, anticitrade (99.48) wrote:

I put my own money into EROC on August 31st and got it for 3.35.  Currently I have made about 33% on that investment.  All the numbers I see suggest that Natural Gas prices will increase significantly to about 4.87 by the end of the first quarter of 2010.

Based on my models fundamental evaluation I can justify a price of about $9.65/share (which is exactly the same price I calculated for it in August....  Which is kind of surprising).

Anyway, I hope that helps. 

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