dcsilver (92.98)

Sirius – Stand up or fall down (a prediction about the 11/05 Conference Call)

November 04, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SIRI

Subscription totals – The improving car market is the only way for Sirius to truly obtain subscribers.  I know it, you know it, and the market knows it.  Mel Karmazin has repeatedly stated that the new car market penetration rate is approximately 52%.  People are starting to buy cars again.  This can only be good for Sirius and Sirius investors.  Cash for Clunkers can be debated on the merits of the program and whether or not the program was successful, but for Sirius the program was a success.  Older cars came off the street and newer cars with Sirius preinstalled were placed in service.  The churn rate for these vehicles are going to be lower, but who cares, these are new subscribers.  I’ll take them.

18,413,435 total subscribers going into Q3.  I’m voting on a rise in total subscribers.  I’m hoping for an additional 200,000, but any positive number will drive this stock higher. Rick “I’m a FOOL” Munarriz has been tracking people’s guesses.  I forgot what my official guess was. 

Sirius Innovations – When is Sirius going to announce a product that will actually drive people towards Sirius. And for the record, NO, SkyDock is not a product that people are going to care about.  The only thing that is interesting about the SkyDock is that Apple is selling them.  If only Sirius could issue the following press release “Apple and Sirius are partners” I don’t even care at what… I can dream….

Sirius Iphone Application – The diminished value of Howard Stern.  Sirius needs a new cheerleader. And NO, I don’t mean Rosie O’Donnell.  Howard Stern was the voice of free promotion when he signed his contract 5 years ago.  I believe he can be that voice again.  However, he has become marginalized to date.  He either needs a new deal that brings him back into being the King of ALL Media, or he needs to retire.  Sirius needs a personality out there everyday screaming about the virtues of Sirius.  Howard did it for about two months.  Now, I don’t even listen to him that much.

The Bottom Line – Since the merger, the extent of the cost of savings has increased from $300 million to $400 million.  I expect that number to continue to climb on this call.

Sirius Growth – Sirius needs to have a positive and upbeat call tomorrow.  Mostly, Sirius needs to attract institutional investors.  Maybe it’s time for a reverse stock split.  Get the stock price over $5.00 and let the big boys start seeing that this company has intrinsic value.