Feroce (< 20)

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 06, 2009 at 12:24 AM, Teacherman1 (95.08) wrote:

Own both. Have had AIB for some time, bought IRE a couple of days ago and am up 38%.

What will happen to them in the intermediate term is that they will go up and down. In the long run, they will go way up.

Just my opinion and worth exactly what I am charging for it. 

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#2) On November 06, 2009 at 1:47 AM, Feroce (< 20) wrote:

haha that's awesome. it's just exactly as I though. I notice them awhile ago but wasn't sure how steady their price would climb and that maybe there were better places to put my money in. But i'm glad to hear someone else has the same good sentiment about them as i do. Well I view 2010 as being a steadier recovery and their prices would climb high enough that if it starts to drop temporary, i might be able to catch wind of it and get out with a decent gain.

 

Congratulations on your success Teacherman1!

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#3) On November 08, 2009 at 2:21 AM, unusualpro (< 20) wrote:

Ive been falling with both stocks from 20 to 30 bucks all the way down to when they were both dollar stocks.  Where they both are at now, the way I look at it, its very possible to make 100% return.  Also they stocks initially attracted me because they had dividends, I am willing to pay the price to see whether or not when the market stabilizes if these two things happen.

 1. Return to $50-80

2. Return of dividends

They both had a weeks worth of drops that pretty much took away the gains it made in the last few months but I have a hunch they are going to get them back soon.  

 

Ive decided i'm in it for the long run, i'm a newb to all this investing but Ive realized these are two picks i'm just going to have faith in for a while.  

 

Also FEROCE, Myself and someone else who posted on here about IRE also posted a similar experience, I had IRE at a very lo price, I had it a little less than $5, I pulled the trigger when the stock was kind of lagging around 7 or 8, only to see it sky rocket in the coming weeks to around $20 and never within the range I had it at.  

 

Thats just another reason why Ive decided i'm in it for the long run with these two, that experience.  Percentage wise to me it makes sense at the levels they are both at now.  Thats just my 10 cents.  

 

  

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#4) On November 10, 2009 at 3:35 PM, oflynnc (35.81) wrote:

NAMA will be passed alright but its got a little bit to go yet.The big
question will be the haircut on the loans for the commercial property.
Its not really going to solve the whole Irish Banks issue though.
There are 4 things that need to be considered:

1. How will the bank raise the additional capital that they require? A
rights issue wont work with the current share price so its likely the
government will have to take greater ownership - how much?

2. How will government participation in the Irish banks (not including
NAMA) be viewed by the EU? Its likely they will take the position that
its anti-competitive and giving the government supported banks an
unfair advantage.

3. Given how the actual picture of the commercial loan book was
obscured by the management (who are all still largely there) - are we
to believe the state of the private property (Homeowner/buy to let)
that is being communicated? Remember this impairment figure is rising
rapidly and is muddied by the 12 month moratorium that is being given
to customers.

4. The irish economy is in serious trouble - approx 500k unemployed,
borrowing 400m a week to balance the books, a government that no
longer has a real mandate from the people and a national debt that is
approx 50Bn to the worse thanks to NAMA (although it is handily
constructed as an SPV that allows it to be excluded from this
calculation)

The banks will be nationalised. Its only a question of when.

C.

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#5) On November 18, 2009 at 4:43 AM, Feroce (< 20) wrote:

Yes you're right about it being nationalized but I can't find any recent info on the timeframe NAMA is supposed to pass. I've read that there are a fair amount of sources to get the capital they need and that a canadian bank is interested in buying a minority share in AIB. I'm sure government participation will be viewed negatively but it's needed and their stock price will rise faster than without gov. participation. Thank you on the irish economic info, i see these numbers and I'm thinking it's expected but then I remember how small the country is and that these numbers are much more significant. So then the big questions:

 1) when do you think they will be nationalized?

2) around what price perimeter do you see them at by the end of 2009?

3) How many years do you think it'll be before they make a decent recovery?

 

I want to dive into these stocks long term but I'm still not certain how far low their prices will fall right now and what would be a good sign of when to pick them up.

 

Little update note: AIB recently reported decent operating profits. 

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