Recs
November 18, 2009 – Comments (49)
The Rules were explained in my last blog
The 5 MSA's in which you can choose are
Tampa (All Counties), Atlanta (All Counties), Phoenix (Maricopa County), Orlando (All Counties) and Riverside County
One additional Rule - you have to have 7 picks on CAPS to participate
Riverside County is in Cali for lesser fools who don't know geography
It is a sad day when you can't even give money away!
Just guessing without any real reason, but if I have to choose the worst community, why don't I vote for "enjoyment of the scenic mountains and native desert landscape"? Hovnanian's Escalante at Entrada Del Oro.
ok, i'll give it a try:
Mr. Beazer in Phoenix
Phoenix BZH
100 usd, whats the worth now 8 Canadian cents?
Beazer
Tampa
Belmont
contestant #1 Zloj (although you didn't pick something in Maricopa county you still lose to the chimp). Here are the sales in that community. KHOV is selling in there with TOA and had 18 sales in 2009. I have been to this community and it sucks!!!!!!!!!!! Who can get under 18 sales? Sorry about the copy paste below, but i only have until 5pm
Brookfield Homes
Riverside
http://www.brookfieldsd.com/
Paxtor you didn't name a community you named an entire division!!! Wake up BRO!
contestant #2 big bear bertha Beazer has closed 38 sales in Belmont this year through Oct 2nd. Which is actually better than the 33 closings they had last year... below are the price points and addresses (again blame caps for the copy paste malfunction... zloj is still in the lead at 18
162,525 10325 CELTIC ASH DR 169,300 10317 CELTIC ASH DR 153,345 10111 CELTIC ASH DR 189,900 14305 KING TOM PL 108,718 10327 CELTIC ASH DR 152,100 10117 CELTIC ASH DR 174,957 10129 CELTIC ASH DR 170,000 10264 NEWMINSTER LOOP 142,700 10123 CELTIC ASH DR 183,000 10314 CELTIC ASH DR 159,500 10333 CELTIC ASH DR 245,000 10008 SMARTY JONES DR 223,000 10056 CELTIC ASH DR 163,700 10334 CELTIC ASH DR 240,900 14303 KING TOM PL 258,300 10009 SMARTY JONES DR 166,100 10337 CELTIC ASH DR 168,735 10277 NEWMINSTER LOOP 171,715 10257 NEWMINSTER LOOP 177,930 10272 NEWMINSTER LOOP 173,885 10226 NEWMINSTER LOOP 226,760 10004 SMARTY JONES DR 194,375 10345 CELTIC ASH DR 167,900 10340 CELTIC ASH DR 167,900 10339 CELTIC ASH DR 182,975 10307 CELTIC ASH DR 221,100 10006 SMARTY JONES DR 185,000 10026 SMARTY JONES DR 202,000 14304 KING TOM PL 215,200 10066 CELTIC ASH DR 223,910 10062 CELTIC ASH DR 214,500 10060 CELTIC ASH DR 178,500 10279 NEWMINSTER LOOP 175,500 14306 KING TOM PL 188,900 10036 SMARTY JONES DR 212,800 10007 SMARTY JONES DR 164,200 10283 NEWMINSTER LOOP 162,500 10281 NEWMINSTER LOOP
fb:
BZH at West Park in Buckeye. (That's a joke). I know they shut down.
I don't really understand the point of this contest, but just for fun, I select ...
Woodstock Knoll - Georgia Edition, Toll Brothers, Atlanta MSA
Desert Enclave in Maricopa County, by Toll Brothers
http://www.tollbrothers.com/homesearch/servlet/HomeSearch?app=community_description&comm_num=8066
Of the 5 MSA's, 2 are truely hellholes: Maricopa and Riverside. Just take the scenic drive along I-10 from LA to Phoenix (OK, for Maricopa you need to go a little past Phoenix) and you know what I mean. Who'd want to live there is beyond me...
The other 3 have very challenging real estate markets with boat loads of houses in foreclosure, so it is not good to be a builder there right now. But they are desirable areas to live in. So I guess builders there still get some traffic and sell a home every once in awhile.
I was tempted to pick a Maricopa community, but it does not look like there are many to chose from (OK, I spent all of 3 minutes to look in to this, so maybe I am lazy--ask my wife and she'll confirm that). So I went with Riverside. I was not able to locate any developments east of Indio (if I could, I would have chosen that one in a heartbeat). The eastern-most I could locate was Cristallo. This one is built by Ryland and I hold a call on RYL. See this as a hedge against that call...
Disclosure: long a RYL call at the time of writing.
You know FB, it is a testament to your educational and entertainment value that I have briefly emerged from my CAPS retirement to try (futilely) to win your contest.
contestant #3 judochop, BHS has 24 sales this year, last year they had 34 sales. Unfortunately for you, zloj is still in the lead with 18 sales... come on people someone can find a worse community!!!
333,000 32275 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 321,000 32300 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 400,000 32584 MARIETTA CT 385,000 32601 MARIETTA CT 323,000 32592 QUIET TRAIL DR 318,000 32286 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 350,000 32620 QUIET TRAIL DR 334,000 32539 QUIET TRAIL DR 308,000 32508 QUIET TRAIL DR 303,000 32536 QUIET TRAIL DR 325,000 32244 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 310,000 32233 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 345,000 32564 QUIET TRAIL DR 307,000 32247 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 325,000 32469 QUIET TRAIL DR 325,000 32550 QUIET TRAIL DR 310,000 32578 QUIET TRAIL DR 320,000 35095 DEER SPRING DR 363,000 35168 GARDENVIEW CT 325,000 35110 LANTERN LIGHT DR 330,000 35039 DEER SPRING DR 310,000 32219 CLEAR SPRINGS DR 490,000 35157 GARDENVIEW CT 335,000 32270 HONEYBEE DR
It has to be Maricopa County and I think Pulte is the worst of the public builders, at least in that part of the country. Looking at their web site I see lots of homes available with "special pricing" in Stetson Valley.
(You have to wonder when the only community amenities listed is "The Great Outdoors"!)
Lennar, in Orlando, Somerset Landing At Wyndham Lakes.
Richmond American- Medallion II at Power Ranch
http://www.richmondamerican.com/Shop+and+Buy/View+Community.htm?mr=Phoenix%20East%20Valley&cm=1242&=ID=1242&Type=Community
DR Horton- Timbers at Power Ranch
http://www.drhorton.com/corp/GetCommunity.do?dv=PX&pr=44456
KB Home (KBH)
Retreat at Daravante
http://www.kbhome.com/Community.aspx?CommID=00875131
donner give a pick!
contestant #4, jakila, i don't believe that woodstock knoll closed a home in 2008... if they did you may win the contest... i am having a tough time with this one, if they didn't close a home in 2008 you are disqualified.
contestant #5 everyday, it is nice to hear from you.... I have Toll selling 5 homes in this community in 2009 which would put you in the lead... Toll is giving me some trouble right now. Also, Toll sold their remaining lot positions to Meritage homes on July 24th. I believe Meritage paid 55,000 / lot there in their acquisition from Toll. In any event, you have the lead at 5 closings.. below are the buyer names I have
DEYLE,DAVID A & IRMA GOLIVER,BYRON D & JANA RINGLEHART,ERNEST & JACQUELINELOGEMANN INVESTMENTS LLCTYTB INC
contestant #6 leohaas, that was a solid effort.. These fricking builder maps are cheesing me off... I have 12 sales there in 2009 which is terrible.... below are the names of the buyers followed by their addresses.... everyday is still in the lead at 5 and I need to verify jakila
KEZHAKEKUTTIYIL,GEORGE
TDOMINGUEZ,TIANA
GOLDBERG,TOD B
BQN LTD
MATHEWS,SAM
SANDERSON,JOHN M & DEBRA M
MANSFIELD,LARRY
EHOLCOMB,ANTHONY J & BRENDA D
LEVY FAMILY TRUST
AMMOUNEH,JOHN S A & KAREN V
OBRADOVICH,DANIEL B
84636 LAGO BREEZA DR
84728 PAVONE WAY
42856 DELL LAGO CT
84727 PAVONE WAY
84740 PAVONE WAY
84752 PAVONE WAY
84709 PAVONE WAY
84362 PAVONE WAY
84644 PAVONE WAY
84697 PAVONE WAY
84661 PAVONE WAY
fb,
They may not have. I randomly picked a community from Toll Brothers in the Atlanta MSA and there were only two available. There was no mention of when the community first opened on TOL's website.
I did find this link via Google:
http://maxsell.net/woodstock-knoll-toll-brothers-breaks-ground/
Which verifies that it is a rather new community. TOL apparently began trying to sell the homes by August 2007, but it's unclear whether they made a sell between then and Jan 2009.
There was also this:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=126130
Suggesting that they "hoped" to have deliveries by mid-2008.
Fwiw, I lived in Atlanta for two years and predicted a lot of the mess in the housing market as a result of my own experiences in the city. Woodstock, GA is 30 miles outside of Atlanta's core and is a nightmarish commute to any job center. My opinion is that anyone who bought a home out there was a complete fool.
The road system will always be a nightmare, the price of oil will continue to rise, and there's virtually no chance that meaningful public transit will ever be expanded that far out. Which means the value of one's home is completely dependent on the state of Georgia's ability to fix their transportation system and oil prices staying low for the next few decades --- odds of both of those happening are slim.
The only other alternative is that more jobs move out that way. This may happen with some of the larger 'burbs, such as Marietta, Dunwoody, Duluth, etc., but I don't think it's going to go all the way up to Woodstock.
contestant #7 enigma dude, Dude..... Stetson Valley is as big as Oprah's Arse!!!!! there are multiple builders in there... Pulte has closed 37 homes there this year and last year they closed 113.... so you do get an A for biggest drop... but the contest is fewest closings in 2009.... below are the last 5 closings ending in October from Pulte...
Also, for those who haven't picked yet.... here is a hint..... which public builders are in REAL trouble... additionally, you should be focusing on markets in which a builder looks like they may exit because of lack of communities.... Everyday is in the lead with 5 closings, but trust me that number can be beat
VANBRONCKHORST,ANDREA R
SMIGIELSKI,PEGGY S
LAUER,JARROD N & KATHERINE D
COOPER,THOMAS M & CHERYL A
GRANDE,SUSAN K
26656 N 53RD LN
26632 N 53RD LN
26919 N 56TH DR
27007 N 56TH DR
KHOV- The Willows-Gilbert, AZ
http://www.khov.com/Home/AZ/WILLOWS3/_Properties_AUTH.htm
contestant #8 TMFJake - somerset landing... wow the fool is overpaying you and I don't even know how much you make. Dude, your picking an infill site!!!!! Lennar has closed 46 homes this year and 79 last year. However, this may warm your spirits.. there have been 19 foreclosure sales in there this year and another 11 in lis pendens....
Fools, the farther away you are from civilization the worse the sales.... don't pick infill sites unless it is a distressed homebuilder.... there is a reason why I am doing this exercise and I will explain it in a future blog.. hopefully you are learning something, maybe not?
here are the names of the september closings for lennar followed by their addresses
SCHELMETY,CARMELO A
ISRAEL,JOSEPH D
CAREY,ROBERT A & NAYLEN
WIELOSZYNSKI,DEREK & ANA
ANDRZEJCZAK,CHRISTOPHER
BURNETT,MARVIN & VERDELL
BELMAHJOUB,MOUNA
JOHNSON,LIBBIE S
2753 YOUNGFORD ST
14136 QUEENSIDE ST
14206 CRAFTSBURY CT
2759 YOUNGFORD ST
14131 QUEENSIDE ST
2433 STRANDHILL ST
2735 YOUNGFORD ST
2329 CROSSTON CIR
Hey, I just random chose from Lennar in Orlando, but I should get points for a large # of foreclosures.
#8) whoops haha, i guess im out of the running. can i resubmit an entry?
Paxtor you can resubmit,
TMF Jake, $100 today in the million dollar portfolio is worth $10s of thousands of dollars down the road. I will give you props for finding so many foreclosures, normally that really slows down sales
contestant #9 ocsurf, dude I can only submit your first pick which was powerranch.... betting against MDC (richmond america) was a losing bet.... also, I don't know why everyone is in Phoenix, Florida has some frightful sites that easily beat Everyday Investor..... Power Ranch has 44 closings this year down from 70 last year... there aren't many foreclosures either.... Here are the sept closings
HOGUE,NICOLE M
9/23/2009
4147 E WATERMAN CT
LUCCHESE,CHRIS & HEATHER
9/18/2009
4077 E LOS ALTOS DR
FB:
Are you using ruby to scrape webdata?
Gulf Winds community Beazer in Tampa
contestant #10 jsneesby, too much of an infill property. I have 38 closings this year and that includes the SFD and condo product. wow these prices are low... I decided to copy paste the sales date and price for oct / sept since they are mind boggling low
contestant #11 apjr.... tampa has a lot of distress, but gulf winds is still too close to the center of tampa... 41 closings this year and 41 last year.... i'm not familiar with ruby? The database I use for new home closings is probably the most powerful in the US. I can accumulate sales data for any new homebuilder in any market. Once I set up the program I can pull this sales data 10x faster than what I am doing today. It is a new tool in my tool chest as of this Fall.
below are the addresses of the beazer closings in gulf winds for Sept
2329 BARRACUDA CT
2333 BARRACUDA CT
2334 BARRACUDA CT
2326 BARRACUDA CT
2515 TRIGGERFISH CT
2330 BARRACUDA CT
2318 BARRACUDA CT
I stop taking picks at 5pm.......... Everyday is still in the lead with 5 sales out of Toll, if you win everyday set up a fake email account (unless you have an old one of mine) and let me know a mailing address for your $100 cashier's check.... 11 minutes left and we close picks
Jakila, you won............. you stumped me on Woodstock Knoll by Toll Brothers. Please post on this blog an email account (just create one if you don't want to use your personal email) and I will expect you to send me an email to winthepooprize@yahoo.com
when I get an email from the one you post here I will send out the cashier's check. Obviously, I won't disclose any personal info and you can always use a friends name and house :-) If you have concerns.... congrats on stumping me and winning the $100
Oh by the way, this contest is in no way connected to the Motley Fool.... It is really a lead into my next blog post
I will disclose the purpose of the contest in my next blog...... I was going to have a series of contests each with larger payouts but due to the lack of participation it is probably not something the community is interested in.
desire may be there fb, but never underestimate the powers of apathy & procrastination.
i bet, either too many didnt want to put forth the effort or thought chances were slim to win to those existing contestants.
"desire may be there fb, but never underestimate the powers of apathy & procrastination."
That's not fair. I might actually get around to caring one of these days.
Not to mention tardiness. Had a busy work day, otherwise I would have made a stab at it.
Ya I would have expected hundreds of responses, strange. I was too busy today to play, but I like the idea and I think its a good learning experience regardless. Do it again fb.
dang... just saw the contest.
nice work mixing it up FB.
Actually I did the contest at noon because I figured people would rather do it during lunch hour than family time. In any event, maybe I need to give a longer lead time, because the next contest was going to be good too....
However, I didn't expect Toll to be the winning pick, so my nasty builder write-up will be against the builder who had the communities to win it.
On a side note, this is only the 2nd time I have been stumped in the last 3 months by clients. The first time was in SE Florida where I had no clue how to get the comparable site data.
Can't believe I won. I totally picked a community at random.
Alright ... jakilathehun@yahoo.com
That was fun - thanks for putting in the effort. I was convinced that Phoenix would be the loser because I personally witnessed many foreclosures and saw all the empty land there when my sister (foolishly) bought and then lost a home there.
On a basically unrelated note I was wondering if you could provide similar info on a KB Home community here in CO that I am looking at. Is it OK if I email you?
Thanks again!
EDude
"Actually I did the contest at noon"
Which noon? ;-)
jakila, got it!!!! check in the mail tomorrow.
enigma dude, send an email to winthepooprize@yahoo.com, I will make sure I check the email account in the next 48 hours. Otherwise, I probably won't open that account again until I decide whether or not to have another contest.
Way to go Jakila! Sorry I missed the contest, I had to meet with the city yesterday. :(
Need longer time to enter. I probably would not enter because I would not know where to begin, but I am an interested reader. Thanks for your time and effort!
Bill
FB,
I would guess that typically the builder with the fewest closings would be the builder with the highest probability of BK, because they probably built in the worst submarkets and don't have the balance sheet strenght to impair the lots to the appropriate value to generate 2-4 sales per month. Toll is a bit of an anomily, because they do have the capacity to take the impairments, but Bob Toll thinks the land the overpaid for is someone intrisicly better than the land say DR Horton overpaid for right next door. So Toll across the board probably has the worst assorptions of any builder, because they're building at the high end where there's been a severe contraction in financing. In Northern California I believe Toll has a couple of communities where they've only sold a couple of houses for the entire year.
Anyways, please do the next contest, as I would love to participate in the next one.
Steve,
Regarding your first point... you are correct, builders with bad finished lot positions have a higher chance of being distressed. However, bankruptcy has been delayed because virtually all of the builders have refinanced long term debt or issued additional equity. Plus, they have gotten a lot back from the gov't in tax refunds.
Many people thought Phoenix was bad, yet many of the communities they chose are pacing 2-3 month which is actually above the norm.
Toll's land in most cases is far superior than the other builders. Additionally, although Toll overpaid for raw dirt, their percentage write down will be less. This gets back to the A, B, C submarket theory. In an A submarket where I do business we offered a bank 20k/lot for RAW dirt, yet we are balking at C submarket finished lots at 5k......
Finally, your absorption point is correct. Toll is the highest end of the builders and lowest sales pace. So picking a Toll site in my contest was the best chance of winning. However, if people actually looked at the publics I selected they would have found the obvious winner (the worst builder).... it is this builder that I will do a blog on
Dumb it down a little bit for the peanut gallery in your next one, if you please, FB: I have been following your blog for years, learned much, can tell you're excited about these numbers, but I don't understand what you're getting at.
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