dexion10 (29.63)

Had to buy on today's big down day NSM ONNN GEF VIP MRO

June 20, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GEF , TXCO , NSM

I've been buying this selloff, but keep in mind I will be selling the next rally as well. We're heading into the summer in an election year and there is a lot to be worried about for the intermediate term...

Just a few things to worry about:

1. Obama out there talking about all sorts of new corporate taxes and disadvantaging energy companies etc I am worried

2. healthcare is scary in an election year... can't touch it - except for promising biotechs / med-techs... anything related to medicare or health plans is toxic now though

3. Banks have two more good panics in them before November. No one is even talking about syndicated private equity loans that got kicked down to regional banks - who've yet to write them down !!!

But given today's sell off and good technical supportsI think there are some buys for trades -plus most of these companies recently announced earnings

TRADES I MADE THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH REAL MONEY:

NSM & ONNN - already announced earnings and beat it... it rallied hard and now is back where it was pre-earnings... just like ONNN - similar industry. Both co's make semiconductors that conserve power in electronic devices... these are some of the best tech stories out there short of CSCO.  I feel a tech rally coming on before the summer swoon so these guys have my interest.

GEF:
GEF has lost about 10% in the recent market sell off and it's own earnings sell off.

Quick take:  12x Forward PE... great industrial / global story... beat earnings a weak ago... raised guidance... margin expansion in progress

I haven't read the last quarter but I know the story... its basically a play on chemical blending spreading to asia and russia and those countries needing packaging. The company is operationally subperb on a  magnitude equal to or better than Pentair... GEF is lean and mean.

I think it's timely because stock is touching a 2 year trendline that hasn't been breached in that time so odds are it's not breaking down here.

Russian Cellular
MBT VIP

Love this story - get the ruble and 30 -40% earnings growth at 12x PE.

VIP is right near it's 9 month support level $30.. rarely breaks below - so timely


TXCO


It's a flyer of a nat gas play... potential growth of 4-6tcf vs. current proved reserves of 100bcf... Third Point is an activist and Dan Loeb was on the conference call.. Dan Loeb doesn't need to be on calls at 350M companies so I think it's worth a small shot. Mgt is a bit promotional so beware of that... but insiders have bought several times over the years including a few weeks ago and they've never lost money.

 

MRO  -

This is my biggest weighting if it wasn't I'd be buying it too.