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A bull market in amateur gold commentary

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September 20, 2010 – Comments (7)

Here is a fantastic comment by Eric Janszen of iTulip. Janszen called the bottom in Gold back in 2001. Its safe to say that he knows a bit about macroeconomics. I did not call the bottom in Gold, I am a relative late-comer to the Gold party (I have been invested for a few years). But because people are noticing it, then it *HAS* to be a bubble! You want to call it a bubble and add to the rhetoric and confusion? That's great, I welcome that! I love misinformation and confused participants, it makes for good dislocations (corrections) so I can buy the dips safely and cheaply. But if you are *sure* it is a bubble and you are going to short it? Do yourself a favor and read this article and read others who have called the Gold market correctly a decade ago. Not some talking head just adding to the din with sound bites. Certainly don't listen to me. I am really just another amateur with an opinion. But I read much smarter people than myself and they can put these macro issues into perspective. (So I am an amateur who stays pretty well read).

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A bull market in amateur gold commentary
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/16885-A-bull-market-in-amateur-gold-commentary?p=174299#post174299

AntiSpin: Soros joins a long line of “experts” on gold who did not identify the bottom of the gold market and buy at $270 in 2001 when we did but entered the market recently after gold had already increased more than three fold in price. Gold cannot have been a bubble for the past nine years. The idea is patently absurd. Gold did not suddenly turn into a bubble just because Soros or anyone else happened to start to notice in 2008 what we noticed and acted on nine years ago, that the gold price was due to rise. Our price target of $2500 to $5000 made then when gold traded at slightly more than 1/10 to 1/20 of that price sounded insane at the time. Now that it sounds likely it's parroted by a small army of gold market tourists.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 20, 2010 at 12:59 PM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

Janszen says:
If we didn't already have gold would we buy it today at these prices?

Yes, but we would not be happy about it.

Not a very ringing endorsement.

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#2) On September 20, 2010 at 4:51 PM, starbucks4ever (97.89) wrote:

An asset that can fall to 13% of its peak value? Count me in! Not.

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#3) On September 20, 2010 at 7:06 PM, umps15 (39.32) wrote:

It sounds like the main argument the article is making is 

1) US has weak dollar

2) US will continue to have a a weak dollar

3) Gold is the replacement , until something else comes along

I think that's a pretty reasonable argument, but here is my counter argument..  

1) inflation has not really been that much of an issue so far.. From what I've heard,  I think economists seem equally worried about deflation.

2) economic weakness is not necessarily tied to currency weakness. If you look at the Japanese Yen, that country has been in a decline for over a decade now but the Yen is doing fine. There are more factors in play here 

 3) What happens if the American economy does recover?

4) If America does not recover, what happens if the Global economy recovers (which it already is I think most people would say)? 

5) What happens if China opens up its currency?  

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#4) On September 21, 2010 at 12:21 AM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

 Think we are at a near term top,ready to drop ?  What do you think Binve?....   Nice to see you here still pluggin away....   TS

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#5) On September 21, 2010 at 9:05 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

topsecret10 ,

Hey TS! If you look at the charts from the bottom of my post on Friday: , I was showing a little more upside for Monday. So now I think we are near the end of this move for the short term (ready to correct). And the next few weeks will show us if it is ready for a more meaningful decline (which is what i think) or if we have a lot moe upside. Thanks!..

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#6) On September 22, 2010 at 1:40 PM, kstarich (30.67) wrote:

Binve

Just want to chime in here.  I made a mistake on my sept. 14 projection for a decline however my projection for an up cycle I believe will be right on.  This transit coming up is a very rare Venus retrograde in scorpio that just happens to be trine the Comex Sun (gold) from 9/28 into December.  The potential for the metals to move well past $1300 could likely happen with a transit like this.  It is first going to oppose the US Sun in Taurus which could be a drop prior but then all bets are off where the metals rise to.

 

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#7) On September 22, 2010 at 2:42 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

kstarich,

Thanks for the heads up kstar!..

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