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A Bullish Hawk? err, Hawkishly Bullish? ...umm, HAWK = BULL = GOOD?

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August 26, 2010 – Comments (22) | RELATED TICKERS: HAWKQ

What I am trying to stay? Ahh yes, I am a bull on HAWK. TMFDeej wrote this excellent post back in June: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/now-this-is-cheap-hawks/414143. It is a great post and the upshot is that Seahawk Drilling is selling for less than scrap. There is more to the story, and read TMFDeej's post for the details. I went long it in Caps on July 26 at $10.02 just on a hunch (round number of $10 and was getting oversold).

Yesterday it was trading down around $7.00, and today I bought a small (very speculative) position in real life. The chart is showing a very nice bottoming stance (postive divergence despite being oversold, very nice) plus we likely got a completed daily swing low yesterday (assuming it closes positive which looks quite likely).

I have no idea if this is the "bottom" for HAWK, but I think the risk/reward here is ridiculously compelling for going long.

And that's no Bull HAWK-y .... (yuk, yuk) :)

DISCLOSURE: I am long HAWK



ENLARGE

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 26, 2010 at 10:40 AM, outoffocus (23.59) wrote:

Speaking of uber bullish. SLW just hit its 52 week high! *pops champagne* 

At this rate I'm gonna run out of champagne. O.O

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#2) On August 26, 2010 at 10:47 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

outoffocus ,

>>Speaking of uber bullish. SLW just hit its 52 week high! *pops champagne*

Amen sister! I love me some SLW. :)

>>At this rate I'm gonna run out of champagne. O.O

I suppose that wouldn't be the worst problem in the world to have :) Thanks!..

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#3) On August 26, 2010 at 12:27 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Thanks for the notice! I held off green thumbing at $10, but I'm putting in a fresh one now knowing it dropped 25+ percent since.

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#4) On August 26, 2010 at 12:29 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

bullishbabo ,

Not a problem! Thanks!..

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#5) On August 26, 2010 at 12:40 PM, Momentum21 (96.33) wrote:

Thanks binve...I love it when you are hawkishly bullish!  

And this type of bottom feeding is right up my alley... : ) I marked them back at 10 bucks as well after reading Deej I believe.  

And how about the recent run on SLW?!? Pretty good month, eh? 

 

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#6) On August 26, 2010 at 12:48 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Momentum21 ,

Hey man!

>>I love it when you are hawkishly bullish! 

Right on :) I too love being a bottom feeder. This is another reason why I hate the general market right here (it is priced for 2-3% GDP growth and 12x earning estimates of $90!!!). It is the opposite of bottom feeding. But deals like HAWK? Now those make binve very happy :)

>> And how about the recent run on SLW?!? Pretty good month, eh?

Incredible! SLW makes me very happy :)

..

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#7) On August 26, 2010 at 3:56 PM, EnigmaDude (98.06) wrote:

When I first saw this, I thought it was about Hawk Corp (HWK) - one of my recent picks which I am very bullish on.  For a second there, I thought we actually agreed on something!

Anyway, take a look at HWK and you may decide to be HWKishly bullish, too.

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#8) On August 26, 2010 at 4:06 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

EnigmaDude,

>>For a second there, I thought we actually agreed on something!

LOL! Nice :) It wouldn't be the first time we agreed on something and I doubt it will be the last. Like I have said before, I am long term very bullish and optimistic. Just not so much regarding the next 5 years or so.

>>Anyway, take a look at HWK and you may decide to be HWKishly bullish, too.

That is some chart!!  Wow, people are definitely excited by it. I have no take on HWK fundamentally at all. My pick on HAWK was based on fire sale valuations and clear positive divergence on the technicals. So it was definitely a 'bottom feeder' pick.

With HWK, even though it is overbought, there is definitely no divergence yet on a weekly chart. So while I wouldn't be comfortable buying it here, there is nothing at all to indicate it is in the process of topping. I do think it could go higher and there would be no way in hell that I would short it.

I do believe this is going to work out well for you! Thanks!..

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#9) On August 27, 2010 at 12:50 AM, Tastylunch (29.54) wrote:

I got bullish on HAWK too early in CAPS :(

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#10) On August 27, 2010 at 1:21 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Tastylunch,

Yeah, I see you picked at 11.70. Well I picked at 10.00 in Caps, so that is not too much better. :)

I hope my real life postion doesn't go that far against me :(..

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#11) On August 27, 2010 at 3:50 AM, ATH001 (< 20) wrote:

Hello All,

Thanks for your posts Binve. I too hold a position on SLW, thanks to Sinch. Are you considering selling a part of your holdings, would you be adding to your position or just sitting on it?

Thanks for your thoughts

L

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#12) On August 27, 2010 at 8:54 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ATH001,

Thanks! Glad you like them!.

>>I too hold a position on SLW, thanks to Sinch. Are you considering selling a part of your holdings, would you be adding to your position or just sitting on it?

Here are my $0.02. As always not advice:

I believe gold and silver are in a secular bull market. I have used this binve portfolio for 'trading' gold and silver positions in the past, but this is something that I do not do in real life. I bought many PMs in early 2008 (when gold was near 950), I bought a lot more PMs in late 2008 (when gold was near 700). This makes up a large portion of my 'base' position. I have added / trimmed positions since then.

But since I believe gold and silver continue to be in a secular bull market, the last thing I want to do is lose my position. So while I am not a buyer here, there is zero chance that I am a seller. I will wait for the next major pullback in gold and silver (something like a 15% correction) to add. The Feb 2010 pullback was a perfect example. I did take advantage and did a little buying. But these days I don't need to buy much since I already have a very large PM position.

So just some thoughts on how I see things for myself.

Thanks!.

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#13) On August 28, 2010 at 4:37 AM, ATH001 (< 20) wrote:

Binve,

 Thank you for your thoughts, you are very generous with your time and research for which I, and I am sure lots others on The Fool are very grateful.

Very best to you,

L

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#14) On August 28, 2010 at 10:24 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ATH001 ,

No problem! I am glad to share my thoughts if they are found to be useful! Thanks!..

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#15) On September 09, 2010 at 4:15 PM, Momentum21 (96.33) wrote:

I bought a chunk of HAWK at $7.67 today. Situations like this are dicey but give me great pleasure in life. Here's to the underdog...onward and upward little HAWK! : )

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#16) On September 09, 2010 at 4:41 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Momentum21 ,

Nice man! I hope it works out for you! So far, I am happy with my purchase :)..

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#17) On September 15, 2010 at 4:13 PM, Momentum21 (96.33) wrote:

 

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#18) On September 20, 2010 at 5:15 PM, Momentum21 (96.33) wrote:

binve - I had to sell off 1/3 into the close today at $8.90. that was just a real solid day and I figure I could add it back if we pull back some from here or just feel better about letting it ride. 

go little hawk : ) 

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#19) On September 21, 2010 at 9:07 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

I hear you. I will probably sell half sometime this week (probably today). But yesteday was the type of oversold reaction that I was waiting for. Thanks!

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#20) On September 21, 2010 at 2:49 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Sold half just now at 8.86

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#21) On September 24, 2010 at 2:00 PM, Momentum22 (30.10) wrote:

sold my balance at 8.42...something tells my I might have another shot here (weird action for such a big day and high short interest on HAWK)...and I have some other things I am looking at...

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#22) On September 24, 2010 at 2:31 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Momentum22,

Gotcha man. I am betting on one more pop :) Good trading!..

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