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HarryCaraysGhost (99.65)

A contest of sorts. The Results!!!

Recs

19

January 01, 2011 – Comments (51) | RELATED TICKERS: C , ONT.DL2 , EST.DL2

 

Back in September I started a simple contest-
A contest of sorts.

The goal was to see which Fool could come closest to the dow on 1-01-11, many methods were used, astology, numerology, Voodoo. But only one Fools magic 8-ball was working that day.

 

And now the results

Drumroll please-
 

Sound Effects - Timpani

oldfashionedway

 

APPLAUSE

oldfashionedway guess of 11,536 was only 41 points of the dows close of 11,557.51

Congrats.

True to my word I went back and recced all of the winners past posts. Unfortunatly that only gives oldfasiondway a whopping 5 extra recs.

So it would be nice if eveyone who participated did the same (just sayin' losers : )

If anyone cares to play again for 1-01-12, I'll start it off-

13,313.31

Same rules apply only one guess per Fool,.

The cutoff date will be dows close 1-04-11.

Fool On. 

51 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 01, 2011 at 10:05 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Not sure if the links will work(odd they worked in my w.p) so here they are-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1B5njIbtOE

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#2) On January 01, 2011 at 10:09 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

and-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TylvUGJIi_w

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#3) On January 01, 2011 at 10:13 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

13600

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#4) On January 01, 2011 at 10:14 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

 

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#5) On January 01, 2011 at 10:18 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

#4 or rather

 

 

oldfashionedway!

 

 

 

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#6) On January 01, 2011 at 10:22 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Thanks porte : )

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#7) On January 01, 2011 at 10:40 AM, rd80 (97.66) wrote:

Happy New Year!

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#8) On January 01, 2011 at 11:05 AM, truthisntstupid (93.09) wrote:

Happy New Year, Harry!

14,500

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#9) On January 01, 2011 at 11:26 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Thanks rd80, Happy New Year.

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#10) On January 01, 2011 at 11:33 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Hi truth, Happy New Year.

I like your guess better than mine, but I don't think you've written a blog that I have'nt recced.

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#11) On January 01, 2011 at 12:17 PM, rebello15 (< 20) wrote:

13400

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#12) On January 01, 2011 at 1:09 PM, blesto (31.03) wrote:

Congrats to oldfashionedway(No info?) and a happy and healthy new year to everybody!

I went back and rec'd all 10 of oldfashionedway's blogs.

Oh, and before I forget...

...15,000 then look for a 50% drop.

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#13) On January 01, 2011 at 1:39 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

10,878

TMFUltraLong

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#14) On January 01, 2011 at 1:41 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Thanks blesto.

wrote this on my word processor and the links did'nt transfer over to the Fool. #5 was how I intended the annoucement to play out. Much thanks to portefeuille again.

...15,000 then look for a 50% drop.

Sounds good... : )

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#15) On January 01, 2011 at 1:50 PM, tomlongrpv (73.68) wrote:

12,990 (and I will be happy to lose if it is higher).

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#16) On January 01, 2011 at 1:57 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

TMFUltraLong

Has spoken... : )

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#17) On January 01, 2011 at 2:13 PM, RonChapmanJr (37.61) wrote:

5555

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#18) On January 01, 2011 at 2:19 PM, lemoneater (72.69) wrote:

I would have been better off sticking with the fibonacci sequence alone rather than adding pi to my guess.

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#19) On January 01, 2011 at 2:21 PM, lemoneater (72.69) wrote:

However, I will stick with 12,697 for next year's guess.

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#20) On January 01, 2011 at 3:08 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

12,990 (and I will be happy to lose if it is higher).

Same here I'm rooting for truth or blesto.

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#21) On January 01, 2011 at 3:17 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

RonChapmanJr

I find that highly unlikely, but your pick is entered.

(editors note- I said closest) were not doing the Price is Right thing where if your over you lose)

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#22) On January 01, 2011 at 3:26 PM, RonChapmanJr (37.61) wrote:

Thanks for allowing it to be entered.   I know this isn't Price is Right format.  I just think the US economy is dead and I figure the stock market will come to reflect that some day.  I've been wrong before though.  :) 

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#23) On January 01, 2011 at 3:29 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

 lemoneater

the fibonacci sequence would have been closer but still not a winner,winner chickendinner.

(Oh, and I was just wondering, does anybody know the status of the Foolanthropy total?)

Hate to think that we've matched the $20 grand and I'm still rambling on like an idiot.

And yes I know what your thinking

(So whats your excuse for the rest of the year? : )

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#24) On January 01, 2011 at 3:47 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Ron, no problem.

I just wanted to clarify so people did'nt start picking 5556 : )

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#25) On January 01, 2011 at 3:54 PM, MoneyOre (< 20) wrote:

21,098.76

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#26) On January 01, 2011 at 4:27 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Ugh, that was horibble grammar.

I just wanted to clarify so people did'nt start picking 5556 : )

I just wanted to clarify, so people would'nt start their picks at 5556... : ) 

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#27) On January 01, 2011 at 7:49 PM, Teacherman1 (42.29) wrote:

11,001

That number just came to me in a dream as I dozed off for a minute. That is not a reflection on how interesting I find your blog. We old guys just tend to do that a lot.

I think I remember a guy named Frank making this pick on "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser", about 40 years ago.

Of course, they all laughed at him, considering what the DOW was at that time.

Since there is no entry fee, why not play.

As my oldest nephew is fond of saying, "if it costs, we don't want any, if it's free, we'll take two.

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#28) On January 01, 2011 at 8:48 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Teacherman heres what I was able to find-

 In 1972, Dow closes above 1,000 for the first time on November 14.

Now if the call on the show was for 11,001. That had to be Barney Frank, he's the only one delusional enough to say that... : )

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#29) On January 01, 2011 at 9:20 PM, outoffocus (23.17) wrote:

 I'll go out on a huge limb here and say 9998.

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#30) On January 01, 2011 at 9:47 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

The Ben Bernanke will inflate Dow to 12,500.

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#31) On January 01, 2011 at 10:25 PM, ozzfan1317 (80.49) wrote:

Dow 13,000

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#32) On January 01, 2011 at 10:49 PM, rd80 (97.66) wrote:

Dow 17485.82

I've applied a rigorous mathematical approach to the problem.

The spam post that sits at #30 as I enter this lists 14 items.  The sum of the prices for those items is 391.  There are 52 weeks in the year.

391 x 52 - 14% volume discount = 17485.52

 

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#33) On January 02, 2011 at 12:47 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

 rd80

Got it, did the math and I came up with your second # of 17485.52.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

But I would hate to have to deal with a scandal over fractionals... : )

(BTW I'm still LMAO)

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#34) On January 02, 2011 at 1:44 AM, Mary953 (77.93) wrote:

13,457.91  (said with confidence!)

because if you say something with confidence, people will believe it even if you have no idea what you are talking about!  ;)

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#35) On January 02, 2011 at 2:03 AM, PickThatBooger (28.79) wrote:

Dow 12,888

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#36) On January 02, 2011 at 7:26 AM, jgknot (30.57) wrote:

even though we know future events alter the outcome,

we still do it anyway..as we are fools..

here you go..my take 4-5%,

as i feel dow may do better than s&p, will give the high end to dow

 around 12150 

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#37) On January 02, 2011 at 2:48 PM, rd80 (97.66) wrote:

@33 - You're right. It's 17485.52. 

Darn keyboard puts the 8 too close to the 5.

At least correcting the mistake chalks up another dime for Foolanthropy. 

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#38) On January 02, 2011 at 8:02 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

#30-  I got this link from ELCid16

Speaks in a language I can understand-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGlX1BDgLBY&feature=player_embedded

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#39) On January 02, 2011 at 8:40 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Mary, maybe it was your delivery, but I believe you'll be right : )

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#40) On January 02, 2011 at 8:45 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

 jgknot

even though we know future events alter the outcome,

we still do it anyway..as we are fools..

Very true, but theres no harm in having some fun with it.

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#41) On January 02, 2011 at 9:52 PM, Eudemonic (64.15) wrote:

DOW: 14134.21

While I'm at it:

SEC wins BCS
NFC wins Super Bowl
NL wins World Series
West wins NBA
NHL West wins Stanley Cup
Ford driver wins Talladega 500

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#42) On January 03, 2011 at 10:27 PM, abitare (41.34) wrote:

The market will collapse once they are forced to protect the currency by raising rates. It will be down in 2011.

How much? As much as they let it fall...there is no fundamental reason out side of the FED buying to prop up this market.

Once the FED stops buying, it will collapse. Most Americans will pay down bills and avoid lossing it at the Wall Street Casino

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#43) On January 03, 2011 at 10:32 PM, abitare (41.34) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrIAb5sUaHU

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#44) On January 04, 2011 at 8:35 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Eudemonic

That is a bold call my freind.

Pretty much every expert is picking the Steelers.

But much like the stockmarket, most Football experts are often wrong : )

Go Bears! 

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#45) On January 04, 2011 at 9:18 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

abitare

Fair enough point, but I must respectfully have to agree to disagree with you. Not that I'm walking around with rose colored glasses, I'm just not seeing a collapse in the upcoming year.

Of course I cannot predict future events, or possible black swans.

 I just know that if I had listened to pretty much every economist in Oct 2008, I would have lost out on a lot of profit.

So I listen to myself while absorbing different viewpoints for consideration. There may come a time when I share your viewpoint, but now is not that time.(I'll revisit this topic next year)

And in your blog you were picking dow 4000, which seems like a mathmatical imposibility.

(Is walstreetpro2 your handle on youtube, or just a video to make your point?)

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#46) On January 04, 2011 at 9:50 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Thank you all for participating.

According to TMF's home page the Dow closed at 11,691.18 so it should be interesting to see who comes closest at years end.

(Go blesto : )

Once again props to-

oldfashionedway for winning, I hope your rec total grew to the point where your wondering what the heck happened to the Fools server : )

See Y'all next year.

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#47) On January 04, 2011 at 11:14 PM, rd80 (97.66) wrote:

I hope we see you - or at least hear from you - before next year.

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#48) On January 05, 2011 at 12:14 AM, Mary953 (77.93) wrote:

Harry,

I must confess, I chose my number by consciously selecting the 1 and then letting my fingers just wander while I counted to 4 more keystrokes - dot - 2 more keystrokes!  But always with confidence!  Now if you want to do a trivia contest that relies on Internet searching, I'm your girl!

And as for the Superbowl, I predict that a Manning will quarterback the winning team (of course, I predict that every year - ever hopeful that it will be true and always glad when it is.  One is still ours, even if he did graduate and go North and the other is his brother, so they both get big time support)

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#49) On January 05, 2011 at 1:10 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

 rd80

I'm sure you'll here from me again before next year, but this is the time of year for me to post nonsense for charity : )

My portfolio does'nt change that much so I don't have a whole lot to talk about. And that's probrably for the best since I'm a contrarion investor

And since I have no plans to install a webcam, the only way any Fool will see me is if they happen to be in Chicago, and I'm buying them a beer. 

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#50) On January 05, 2011 at 1:28 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.65) wrote:

Now if you want to do a trivia contest that relies on Internet searching, I'm your girl!

Rock on Mary!

Sounds like a cool blog, I'll start you off with a question-

Who is the janitor on the planet express ship?

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#51) On January 05, 2011 at 9:31 AM, Eudemonic (64.15) wrote:

HCG: This is the year of surprises. It's time for an upset.

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