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HarryCarysGhost (99.78)

A Contest of Sorts... The Results!!!

Recs

16

January 01, 2012 – Comments (21) | RELATED TICKERS: KO , NT , EST

Hello Fellow Fools, I trust that you all had a Happy Festivus.

If you recall last year at this time I started a simple contest-

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/a-contest-of-sorts-the/501959

and now is the time to reveal the results, but first a few words-

Many philosophys were used in our futile efforts to predict the future, Numerology, Voodoo Economics, Divining Rod, Astology, Encology,Exobiology,Mumbo Jumbo,Perissodactylous, Aroma therapy, argybargy, austerity...(ok I got stuck on the a's so lets move on)

But only one method won this contest-

Technical Analysis.

(Your probably thinking- Wait a minute Harry thats like cheating the winner used charts to tell him what the future holds barring the event of any Black Swans... Shenanagins!)

I know,I know personally I used to think that charting was just a bunch of squiggley lines that could move up or down for no apparent reason. But I've changed my ways, Warren Buffett be damned. (no offense but if I can't invest like him why should I try and emulate his investing style)

Without further ado.. The winner is.................

jgknot

(fireworks go off, confetti fills the room, the rockettes kick up their heals, dancing elephants are juggling monkeys)

The Dow closed at 12,217.56 on Jan 1st,2012

jgknot called 12,150 on Jan 1st 2011

Congradulations.

True to my word I will be spending the rest of my day reading and reccing all of your blogs.

Hopefully everyone else who participated will do the same (just sayin' losers)

If you guys want to play again I'll start it off-

14,214.87

Same rules apply

One pick per Fool, deadlines close of the Dow Jan 4th.

Thank you all for playing and heres hoping for a prosperous New Year.

Cheers

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 01, 2012 at 5:58 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Heres a handy dany link for jgknot's posts-

jgknot

 

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#2) On January 01, 2012 at 6:28 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Ok done, that did'nt take very long since jgknot is a person of few words, but now I need to go find out what Kolaveri Di means.

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#3) On January 01, 2012 at 7:01 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_this_Kolaveri_di

 

Here you go Harry!

 

I am impressed not just by the prediction - but he correctly anticipated that the Dow will outperform the S&P!!!

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#4) On January 01, 2012 at 9:17 PM, georcole (91.81) wrote:

Dow 11974. Since I do not pay attention to the indexes, I actually have to thank HarryCarysGhost for including the starting number in the blog. I do not put money in the index. I put money in individual stocks, so those I pay attention to. Since the world seems to be doing rather poorly at the moment, (the Euro - What is the answer? I do not know. It is way too complex with too many serious ramifications to just throw a simple answer out there., Iran - Are they building nuclear weapons, or just nuclear energy? Will they try to close the Strait of Hormuz? If they succeed even temporarily, what will be the effect on the price of oil?, Our House and Senate passing everything but fiscally responsible bills. Did you hear about the one they recently passed that says that if you are missing fingers or parts of fingers, have several guns, have ammo stored in ammo cans, or have seven days worth of food in your house, you can be considered a terrorist threat to our country and can be locked up without being charged, with no trial, and for an indefinite time period. Yes this applies to US citizens. All of you who get paid bi-weekly and shop for groceries once every two weeks, you could be a terrorist. So do what I do, keep your extra food, guns and ammo at somebody else's house! That passed the Senate 93-7.  How long did they drag out the raising of the debt ceiling?  And the list goes on and on from there.) I am going to settle on a slight drop from our current position. Over all I am a really positive person, but I think that it is going to take time to settle some of the major issues we have at this time.

 

    Oh wait, didn't the Mayan calendar say that the world is going to end in 2012? Maybe I should pick zero. Nah, I'll stick with 11974. 

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#5) On January 01, 2012 at 10:36 PM, Teacherman1 (51.09) wrote:

Happy New Year Harry.

I was off by only 1,216.56, but considering I was using a 40 year old forecast from Frank, on Wall Street Week, that's not too bad.

As best I can recall, the DOW was in the hundreds at that time and he said we would one day see it above 10,000.

The rest of the panel looked at him like he was from Mars.

I am going to take last years pick, add half of the difference between my pick and the actual close, add another 50% just because, and go with 11,913.

I mostly just hope I am still around to see what it closes at.

Good luck to everyone in 2012.

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#6) On January 01, 2012 at 11:40 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Thanks Anchak.

@georcole- duly noted.

@Teacherman- I'm sure you will be my freind, sidenote-I left a post on your last blog about our favorite shipper.

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#7) On January 02, 2012 at 12:06 AM, Eudemonic (67.16) wrote:

DOW==>13378 derived via chisumbop and the 2012 Election Under/Over.

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#8) On January 02, 2012 at 3:42 AM, jgknot (30.90) wrote:

Beginners Luck. But thank you all.

Special One to Harry and Anchak.

By the way how was the Song - Kolaveri  Di.

Expecting the same this year 4-5%, but this time S&P to pip Dow, so low end to Dow.  Around 12750 will remain the mean, even though we may go up and down. also we had resistance around 12750 many times in the last few years

 Also, its going to be tricky this time due to election year.

i expect the mean to stay true until 2nd quarter, may be 3rd,

but 4th quarter iam not sure, since election outcome will have an effect, as this time iam guessing its going to be a close call election, similar to Gore/Bush one. 

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#9) On January 02, 2012 at 11:45 AM, SultanOfSwing (99.57) wrote:

Hey Ghost,

Just got back from my climb up Mt. Dow where at the summit I met a cool shaman dude.  I posed this same question to him and he told me: 13,333.  Actually he said "13,333.333333333" until I slapped him upside the head (he thanked me for that).  I think the wind chill froze his mouth.

So, straight from the shaman to you, sultan's guess is 13,333.

SoS

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#10) On January 02, 2012 at 11:55 AM, Teacherman1 (51.09) wrote:

Read and replied.

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#11) On January 02, 2012 at 1:46 PM, RallyCry (< 20) wrote:

Hello HCG and Happy New Year!. 14,050 is my guess for the Dow. Figured it could match up nicely with my 15% 2012 call on the S&P 500 to reach 1400. I'm putting away the umbrella for 2012. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/2012-time-to-put-away-the/681091

GLTA, 

Rallycry

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#12) On January 02, 2012 at 2:08 PM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

I love Festivus and have improved my feats of strength this year :)

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#13) On January 02, 2012 at 2:39 PM, Melaschasm (88.99) wrote:

A strong 4th quarter will leave the DOW at 13,500

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#14) On January 02, 2012 at 10:35 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

@Eudemonic

I'm digging on the chisumbop method.

 jgknot

Congrats Man!

Have to admit the first time I heard Kolaveri Di my reaction was what the hell is this. But after reading Anchaks link and listening a few more times... Starting to dig it, slightly.

RallyCry

Hey Rally , we came pretty close on our predictions, I have the same reasoning. But I use the signs hung by month metric.

Predicted the crash (few months early) but still....

 dbjella

I hope they were'nt to hard on you with the airing of grievences...;)

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#15) On January 02, 2012 at 11:15 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

 SultanOfSwing

You made sure to use your coupon for eternal happiness right?

So you got that going for you...

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#16) On January 04, 2012 at 8:58 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Thank you to all the participants. Mr Market closed at 12,418.42 on Jan 4th 2012 the cutoff date for new entries.

An interesting sidenote if the contest ended today jgknot would be the winner by being within 331.58. Luckily we have 362 days left (it's a leap year).

Whelp! till next year.

(Maybe TMF will have the buzzbox and rec counter fixed by then, but picking the over/under on that would be a seperate contest : )

Cheers.

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#17) On January 04, 2012 at 9:27 PM, jgknot (30.90) wrote:

Harry, 

With this much debt, and current life support scenario, how do you expect us to make a new all time high..

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#18) On January 05, 2012 at 12:29 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

jgknot, thats a really good question.

And I have a really piss poor answer to that. I honestly thought that the dows all time high was around 16,000. Only thing I can think of is I made the mistake of correalating the dows performance to my real life portfolios paper haircut during the crash (down 50%) so the lows were at around 8000 so I assumed that 16,000 was the high.

All I can say is... hey man that was a pretty dark time so forgive me if I blanked out some of the details, but I continued buying solid companys all the way down and all the way back up. (also did some speculating on garbage to fund my long term trades).

I'll stick with my pick since-

(a) all picks are final.

(b) The economies picking up, your just gonna have to trust me on this one. My line of work is my economic barometer. (people don't buy signs unless they have buissiness to advertise)

(c) The debt argument has been going on for as long as I can remember. It's a fiat currency and were not going back to the Gold standard anytime soon. The Fed will not allow inflation to rear it's ugly head, certainly not during the election (which is the wild card as you mentioned)

Cheers.

 

 

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#19) On January 05, 2012 at 2:02 AM, jgknot (30.90) wrote:

Well, lets see. 

agree with you on C. 

as for as B , economy is picking up due to all the efforts put in by fed, and the expectation it will do more. but i guess may be another 1000 points thats it, negative news will pull it down. 

Eventually,

they are going to keep it this way as long as it takes and stretch as much as they can, that will keep the economy muddle thru..

i kinda see the dow range bound 15k - 10k for the next 5 yrs , with all this debt, unemployment, housing and so forth.

like europe in 2011 and beyond, i expect the pressure from emerging economies in the coming years.

Ride On. 

Cheers.

 

 

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#20) On January 13, 2012 at 4:50 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

(Editors note)

I'm adding Lemoneaters pick of 12,697, shes been in all the past contests, but understandably she did'nt see this blog.

That was her # on prior contests so I took the liberty of making that her pick. Barring overwhelming objection from the rest of the contestants.

Be well my freind, and I'm rooting for you in more ways then one.

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#21) On January 17, 2012 at 1:20 PM, lemoneater (86.84) wrote:

:) Thanks Harry, I'll go with 12,697 for this year. I'm sure that Port could tell me if there is any special significance to the number itself :).

I'm working a full day today. I'm starting to feel more my age rather than decades older which is great!

Take care!

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