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alstry (35.02)

A DEPRESSION Session and REFLECTOR update

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March 20, 2009 – Comments (8)

I know many of you guys find it hard to believe that we are ALREADY in a depression.....but we are based on the greater weight of the evidence.  You can believe those idiots that have been lying to you for the past few years.....or just look at the facts.

I hope you have prepared.....America potentially is about to see the greatest number of bankruptcies in its history buth on an absolute basis and relative basis.  Bankruptcies will cause further bankruptcies causing even more bankruptcies and in the end many will be saying FU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  That is right.....FU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From CalculatedRisk:

A Louisiana court issued an order to seize and sell a General Growth Properties Inc GGP.N shopping center in a New Orleans suburb after the No. 2 U.S. mall owner failed to repay a $95 million loan, a Citigroup ... unit said on Friday.

The Oakwood Shopping Center in the town of Gretna is the fourth General Growth property seized in the last few days after the company failed to pay mortgage debt.

Four properties seized in a few days?????????

Rev Par for hotels is down 25% from last year.

U3 Unemployment in CA is now at 10.5%  U6 is likely approaching 20%.

Xerox also said revenue in January and February fell 18 percent, largely due to lower sales of equipment and printer-based supplies.

REMEMBER, A DEPRESSION IS DEFINED AS A 10% DROP IN GDP FROM PEAK TO TROUGH......many MANY industries are down 30,40,50% and MORE in the PAST TWO YEARS!!!!

As you guys have learned the hard way....Alstrynomics is generally first to tell you what is going on......you even get it from Alstry before Dr. Doom himself....in the past he was six months or more behind Alstry.....now he is catching up quickly.....based on todays article......he is only a few weeks now.

Reflector Update:

As we discussed last week.....A MASSIVE convex REFLECTOR developed between the 7200 and 7500 level with a large physical silver coating at the 7500 which makes it practically impossible for those slimy spector vectors to penetrate for any length of time before extinguishing practically all of their energy as revealed by the photon spectrometer reading on Wednesday.

While many of those Techno Fairies are predicting a return to a bull market.....the evidence is simply lacking to support such a fantastic assertion.

Today was simply a confirmation that when you get a spector vector coming up against a coating of inflation fighting physical silver.....the spector vector gets deflated almost everytime.....and this time was no different.

With the spector vectors exhausted, the economy in a depression, and many families, corporatons, and state and local governments on the brink of bankruptcy......we have a recipie for downward pressure with a intermediate price target of 3500 to 4000.  Don't fret....that likely won't be close to the bottom...........

The key is to prepare and not fear.........

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 20, 2009 at 4:52 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

How long will they keep serving Kool Aid?????

CBO says unemployment will hit 9.4% late this year

And Alstry says he will only blog 9.4 times this month......

Any one wnat to buy a bridge in the Sahara?????  I have 20....

9.4% this year when many states have over 10% umemployment already.......???????

C'mon guys....how stupid do you think we are......oh..I forgot....this is the same troup that Geithner works for....

Remember, CAPS is the only place where you can witness for yourself the accuracy of Alstry and his application of Alstrynomics....the practical application of the facts into reasonable projections.

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#2) On March 20, 2009 at 5:00 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

Overall, 12% fewer passengers took to the air last month, paying 8% less for the privilege, ATA said. Total passenger revenue fell 19% compared to February 2008, the fourth consecutive month revenue has fallen.

On top of the slump in air passenger demand, airlines also saw shipping traffic fall 21% in January after back-to-back 17% declines in November and December, ATA said.

Industry after industry after industry after industry is experiencing double digit sales declines in the first few months of this year....many 20% or more

We started the year at about 8% unemployment......if companies are forced to cut staff proportionate to revenue declines....we could see at least 20% of the workers fired....

Remember Alstry's prediction for 30% umemployment???.....now you know the rest of the story.....

None of this is much fun.....but would you rather me blow smoke up your backside??????

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#3) On March 20, 2009 at 5:21 PM, Varchild2008 (85.27) wrote:

Not all companys will go bankrupt....  70% had a job in the Great Depression after all.

So... Now's the time to stock up on CASH and if you carry any equities.. Make sure they have solid cash flows to withstand a Great Depression.

Take notice of the "Beverage Sector" and "Consumer Staples" sector which outperformed the S&P 500 today.  This is a sector I heavily scarfed up on that is rallying up since January.

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#4) On March 20, 2009 at 5:33 PM, Bilifuduo (98.20) wrote:

We have had countless bankruptcies in the pathetic history of something called the American economy. Yet you forget to mention, alstry, that for every bankruptcy there will be 100 new companies, and sooner or later they will take up the failure's place. Its like a sponge. You hit it, it inflates back up. You pound it, it still goes back up. (And yes, I am comparing the economy to a sponge).

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#5) On March 20, 2009 at 6:01 PM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

alstry, are you mainly holding cash nowadays or do you hold some equities as well? i recall seeing you blogged that you picked up a bit of silver too.

i may begin switching my position from inflation to deflation soon the way i see it, this is what is happening:

Signs of deflation:

1) Rising unemployment

2) No increase in wages

3) Collapse of currencies around the world as well (not just us)

4) Bankrupcies, bankrupcies, bankrupcies...

5) Prices of food and oil have been cheaper.. 

Signs of inflation:

1) Massive debt that the government will have an easier time paying off if inflated (but at the same time i also ponder over whether all the debt can be paid off at all)

2) The government and FED probably wouldn't want an deflation happening during their term. They will just continue printing press to prevent deflation. 

3) A devaluation of the dollar as nations around the world begin selling off our bonds.

It seems to me there are many things going on right now that indicates both at the same time.

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#6) On March 20, 2009 at 6:20 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

There are thousands of stories like the following around the country......maybe hundreds of thousands.......trust me on this one.......it was almost Alstry......

My heart goes out to this family and the millions and millions of American families that are or will soon be in a similar position....

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#7) On March 20, 2009 at 6:41 PM, alstry (35.02) wrote:

RETURN TO SENDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....................a BIG FU!!!!!!!!!!!!

U.S. Postal Service to Offer 150,000 Early Retirement as Mail Volume Drops

How many pizza delvery jobs are open right now?????

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#8) On March 20, 2009 at 8:25 PM, Lenokis (22.54) wrote:

I agree with your thesis that the spector vector will be deflated.

Similar bad news is out for--

The U.S. hotel industry posted declines in three key performance measurements during the week of 8-14 March 2009, according to data from STR..

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 15.7 percent to end the week at 55.2 percent. Average daily rate dropped 11.2 percent to finish the week at US$99.60. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 25.1 percent to finish at US$55.02

 

Anyway, keep up the good work with the BIG PICTURE for us. I appreciate the service.

 I like your blogs because you dont have ground rules or require the user to play 'find the reply' page with umpteen links. Thanks for keeping it simple, and, best yet- for keeping it real... 

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