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ChrisGraley (29.86)

A few posts about some random stocks...

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18

October 12, 2009 – Comments (10)

I posted a response in one of Porty's threads to help him out. He volunteered to comment about some stocks if Fools just posted the symbols and was flooded with responses immediately. He cried uncle shortly after. I don't think he realized how much admiration he had on the CAPs blogs. After he cried uncle, I decided to post my own opinions for 2 posters that posted after he said that he wasn't going to take anymore requests.

Since there were a decent number of companies involved and since I know alot of blog posts get ignored after they are a couple of days old,I thought I would repost it here in case any of you were interested in these stocks...

 

LOL!

Just for #15 and #16 so Porty doesn't have to work on this until his buddy Hugh Hendry is right about something...

VIP- A lot of good CAPS players are high on VIP, but I'm not buying. It has had a good run for about the last year and the telecommunications industry is wide open in Russia, but it has a lot of debt and I can't trust the Russian economy to make a quick turn-around. Also I think making a move into Southeast Asia is a mistake, given that they still need to raise more money for just domestic growth. China will join the competition with a better bankroll and eat VIP's lunch.

TXN- A company that has had a decent run since March, but I really don't see any catalyst to buy it. It's current product offerings are commoditized and I just don't see a growth opportunity. It's fairly priced and overall a stock I would probably hold if I had it. If you are looking for a short term trade, there seems to be some bullish movement in the options market right now and they report earnings next week. Buy on rumor, sell on news. As a long term investment however, I think that you are chasing the crowd.

TRN- I like this company, but I think that it will go lower before it goes higher. The traffic in raw materials will increase when employment increases. I haven't seen any announcement of infrastructure spending. (But I do expect one when then government puts forth stimulus #2) In the long term, wind turbines are a good play, but again I'd wait for a commitment from government.

OCNF- If you are willing to commit to this stock for 5 years, it's an OK investment, but the sector continues to implode and their management comes off as inexperienced.

DRYS-  The CEO is a crook plain and simple. If Bernie Madoff ran a dry shipping business it would be this one. When the sector turns around, this company may very well lead the pack for a while, but don't come crying to me about your lost investment when the CEO goes to prison.

TRMD- A much better investment than the other 2 dry shippers, but again, I hate the sector and there will be a better buy-in point.

GU- Now you're talking! China has made a commitment to bio-fuel, they have a nice dividend and this is a bargain price.

CPBY- This is a fantastic company! It was reccommended in the All-Star portfolio a little while back and while I was dragging my feet to buy it, it shot up a ton! I'm currently looking for a better buy-in, but it's still undervalued if you bought it at today's price.

HUN- If you believe that the recession is over, then buy it. I don't just yet.

PVX- Buy it! Your only worry is if they drop the dividend before you can collect one pay out. Even if that happens you are fine. I don't think it will happen though as they have a good dividend history. This is a good play for either inflation or recovery or stagflation. The only economy that it will hurt you in is a deflationary one.

ERF- I like this stock as a terriffic value play, and the fact that it's a CANROY makes it a good inflation hedge. If you are looking at this as an income stock however, keep in mind that Canadian tax law changes will reduce the dividends in a couple of years.

WNR-  I break my own rules alot, but I generally don't invest in American car companies, Airlines or oil refiners. Almost every time I've done so, I've lost money. (with the exception of Ford fairly recently and Southwest Airlines about 7 or so years ago.

APWR- Maybe not the same bargain as GU, but the same upside.

XTXI- Buy based strictly on valuation. You may need to hold it for a while until the market to come to it's senses, but a good buy.

GGWPQ.PK- I'm not big on investing in REITs at the moment, but I checked it out after Bravo Bevo's pitch and this one is a keeper.

OPCDF.PK- I think it will be a while before the oil sands stocks perform again, but if you are a long term investor, you can't beat this stock at the price that it's at. EV38 has put up a great pitch for this and he is a really good investor overall. This is another stock where I'm dragging my feet, but I am buying this one.

LYG- I have to pass on rating this one. I lost some money on this stock when the crash happened last year. While I was right in thinking that the European banking industry was in as much trouble as the US industry was, I had thought incorrectly that Lloyd's was above investing in the same foolishness. I still think that they have good management when it comes to analyzing risk, but unfortunately I didn't realize that they would succomb to greed anyway. To come to a conclusion on their investment status, would mean that I would have to pretend that I have a total understanding of the UK's commitment to the banking industry, which I do not. My initial hunch is that in a country that admires social status and appearences above fundamentals, that they would never fail, but I think that the UK is realizing that may be the reason that Lloyds invested in the foolishness to begin with, especially when they see the "too big to fail" comparison to AIG.

As always, I hope this helps.

Chris

P.S. I cuaght a few of my typos in the second reading.

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 12, 2009 at 10:46 PM, Tastylunch (29.25) wrote:

Ha nice of you to do this Chris

I hold similiar views on mots of what you mentioned

 I however don't like GU (I used to)

see their recent conference call, they have a major tax issue (basically they don't fell they should pay any consumption tax) with the PRC and have had to shut down several of their plants

until they resolve that and gte the plants back on they are going to bleed money like crazy

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#2) On October 12, 2009 at 11:01 PM, PeteZar (< 20) wrote:

I agree with tastylunch. GU SHOULD be a great buy at the price, however the tax issue is truly killing the company. I bought in prior to their Q2 report and rode it up a bit before selling off. Earlier this year they announced that one of their plants was shut down due to the tax issue and that plant happened to be one of it's largest. After Q2 ER, they announced another plant was shutting down as well. This is why GU is sitting in the $1.75-$2 range.

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#3) On October 12, 2009 at 11:05 PM, Seano67 (78.13) wrote:

Very interesting. Out of the stocks on your list, I hold LYG, HUN, and PVX. I'm actually considering bailing on Lloyds and booking a 14% gain. I was up much further a month ago, but it's tanked recently and probably deservedly so, as that talk of a possible $24 billion rights issue so that they can get out from under the British asset-protection program is pretty sobering. Talk about dilutive, especially when their market cap is $40.1 billion.

Huntsman I love. I consider them an extremely well run company, which is what I would hope for and expect from a family-run business like that.  You put your family name up there on the line, I believe that gives one added incentive to try even harder and do even better. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sell though, at pretty much any time. Jon Huntsman Sr. is 72 years old now and is becoming more and more devoted to his philanthropic efforts, and Jon Jr. is the US ambassador to the Peoples Republic of China, so that might prompt a sale at some point. I'm a big fan though, of the company and the man. Jon Sr. grew up in abject dirt-poor circumstances, and through his hard work, effort, and business acumen has become the 47th wealthiest person on earth. 

And PVX has been great. What do you think about WHX? That's another stock I'm a big fan of. 

Anyway, great post!

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#4) On October 12, 2009 at 11:50 PM, TMFJake (76.38) wrote:

Well done!

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#5) On October 13, 2009 at 4:40 AM, uclayoda87 (29.22) wrote:

I still have hope that WNR will be a long term winner, but I would only buy it at less than $6 per share, since it may take a few years to reap the benefits of a falling US dollar.

Good job with the post.  I expecially agree with you about DRYS.

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#6) On October 13, 2009 at 8:07 PM, rosemanjhk (57.76) wrote:

THIS is the kind of posts we need more of!  I own a couple of those listed, and always like to read (substantiated) opinions on them.  Good work!

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#7) On October 13, 2009 at 9:53 PM, Tastylunch (29.25) wrote:

hey just wnated to apologize felt I was  more of a negative nelly than I needed to be.

 I appreciate you doin this Chris, I think a lot of Fools will benefit. :)

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#8) On October 15, 2009 at 4:27 PM, traderbach (< 20) wrote:

Yeah.  I posted many of the stocks in the first comment Chris addressed & was really grateful for his response.  So just in case he didn't check back into that blog want to make sure to say big 'Thanks'.  Sure many Fools benefited from it!  As for GU.  I'm a neophyte but have been following their news.  It's true about their scaling down things until they get news on whether the Chinese Govt. will give them a pass on the tax.  Seems to me that they are in good standing w/ the Govt. & that if the news breaks favorably for them the stock will get a good bump.  Going forward, their fundamentals appear well-respected, they make fuel from waste oil in a booming Chinese economy;  I can't see them failing over time.

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#9) On October 15, 2009 at 4:56 PM, ozzfan1317 (78.67) wrote:

Thanks for the insight I will give these tickers a look and see if any interest me enough to add them to my watchlist.

A couple of small caps I am high on are Ebix and Dar would love ot hear your thoughts. 

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#10) On October 21, 2009 at 1:04 AM, devilzadvocate (48.57) wrote:

Great post.. will be doing my DD on PVX, and GU.

I had come close to buying CPBY after the pitch in AllStar.. and am cursing myself for not biting it. It's on the higher side right now.. so am going to wait for a better buy in on CPBY.

I still own GGWPQ.PK. I bailed out on WNR last week. It definitely has potential.. but am tired of waiting for it to spike. Too many options.. and so little money :)

Sean - WHX is a good buy IMHO.

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