A few posts about some random stocks...
October 12, 2009
– Comments (10)
I posted a response in one of Porty's threads to help him out. He volunteered to comment about some stocks if Fools just posted the symbols and was flooded with responses immediately. He cried uncle shortly after. I don't think he realized how much admiration he had on the CAPs blogs. After he cried uncle, I decided to post my own opinions for 2 posters that posted after he said that he wasn't going to take anymore requests.
Since there were a decent number of companies involved and since I know alot of blog posts get ignored after they are a couple of days old,I thought I would repost it here in case any of you were interested in these stocks...
LOL!
Just for #15 and #16 so Porty doesn't have to work on this until his buddy Hugh Hendry is right about something...
VIP- A lot of good CAPS players are high on VIP, but I'm not buying. It has had a good run for about the last year and the telecommunications industry is wide open in Russia, but it has a lot of debt and I can't trust the Russian economy to make a quick turn-around. Also I think making a move into Southeast Asia is a mistake, given that they still need to raise more money for just domestic growth. China will join the competition with a better bankroll and eat VIP's lunch.
TXN- A company that has had a decent run since March, but I really don't see any catalyst to buy it. It's current product offerings are commoditized and I just don't see a growth opportunity. It's fairly priced and overall a stock I would probably hold if I had it. If you are looking for a short term trade, there seems to be some bullish movement in the options market right now and they report earnings next week. Buy on rumor, sell on news. As a long term investment however, I think that you are chasing the crowd.
TRN- I like this company, but I think that it will go lower before it goes higher. The traffic in raw materials will increase when employment increases. I haven't seen any announcement of infrastructure spending. (But I do expect one when then government puts forth stimulus #2) In the long term, wind turbines are a good play, but again I'd wait for a commitment from government.
OCNF- If you are willing to commit to this stock for 5 years, it's an OK investment, but the sector continues to implode and their management comes off as inexperienced.
DRYS- The CEO is a crook plain and simple. If Bernie Madoff ran a dry shipping business it would be this one. When the sector turns around, this company may very well lead the pack for a while, but don't come crying to me about your lost investment when the CEO goes to prison.
TRMD- A much better investment than the other 2 dry shippers, but again, I hate the sector and there will be a better buy-in point.
GU- Now you're talking! China has made a commitment to bio-fuel, they have a nice dividend and this is a bargain price.
CPBY- This is a fantastic company! It was reccommended in the All-Star portfolio a little while back and while I was dragging my feet to buy it, it shot up a ton! I'm currently looking for a better buy-in, but it's still undervalued if you bought it at today's price.
HUN- If you believe that the recession is over, then buy it. I don't just yet.
PVX- Buy it! Your only worry is if they drop the dividend before you can collect one pay out. Even if that happens you are fine. I don't think it will happen though as they have a good dividend history. This is a good play for either inflation or recovery or stagflation. The only economy that it will hurt you in is a deflationary one.
ERF- I like this stock as a terriffic value play, and the fact that it's a CANROY makes it a good inflation hedge. If you are looking at this as an income stock however, keep in mind that Canadian tax law changes will reduce the dividends in a couple of years.
WNR- I break my own rules alot, but I generally don't invest in American car companies, Airlines or oil refiners. Almost every time I've done so, I've lost money. (with the exception of Ford fairly recently and Southwest Airlines about 7 or so years ago.
APWR- Maybe not the same bargain as GU, but the same upside.
XTXI- Buy based strictly on valuation. You may need to hold it for a while until the market to come to it's senses, but a good buy.
GGWPQ.PK- I'm not big on investing in REITs at the moment, but I checked it out after Bravo Bevo's pitch and this one is a keeper.
OPCDF.PK- I think it will be a while before the oil sands stocks perform again, but if you are a long term investor, you can't beat this stock at the price that it's at. EV38 has put up a great pitch for this and he is a really good investor overall. This is another stock where I'm dragging my feet, but I am buying this one.
LYG- I have to pass on rating this one. I lost some money on this stock when the crash happened last year. While I was right in thinking that the European banking industry was in as much trouble as the US industry was, I had thought incorrectly that Lloyd's was above investing in the same foolishness. I still think that they have good management when it comes to analyzing risk, but unfortunately I didn't realize that they would succomb to greed anyway. To come to a conclusion on their investment status, would mean that I would have to pretend that I have a total understanding of the UK's commitment to the banking industry, which I do not. My initial hunch is that in a country that admires social status and appearences above fundamentals, that they would never fail, but I think that the UK is realizing that may be the reason that Lloyds invested in the foolishness to begin with, especially when they see the "too big to fail" comparison to AIG.
As always, I hope this helps.
Chris
P.S. I cuaght a few of my typos in the second reading.
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