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A Great Site For Leading Indicators

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May 01, 2009 – Comments (2)

Hi All,

Many of you more experienced investors no doubt have your own sources for this info. I wish I could remember who here on Caps posted this link a few days ago but kudos.

I just finished (yet another) investment book and the author stressed the importance of having useful, quick information and listed many of indicators available in this site. He also cautioned against over emphasizing the importance of predictions or even ultimate direction of the Dow, S&P Nasdaq etc in making investment decisions. This author felt they were actually some of the least useful and by far the most over relied on. He characterized them as more of a shorthand particularly useful for the media but of very little useful purpose. Good for factoring in market sentiment but unrelated to the performance of most investors portfolios (unless they literally happend to own the exact stocks listed of course). He stated there are far more useful indicators that should be monitored.

http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/mktsummary/MarketSummary.asp

Be sure to review all the charts and click the Information tab for each so you can see it's description, formula and strategy. 

This is quck and very easy. 

Good luck. I hope this post adds value to your investing

Alex 

 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 01, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Varchild2008 (86.40) wrote:

Alex.... I got a set of rules to go by whenever you don't understand or like the Macro Economic Picture:

(1)  Bear Market?  Look for examples of cost cutting measures.
I bought (WHR) simply because of identifying Cost Cutting moves.

(2)  Bull Market?   Look for Over Hiring, Over Paying C.E.O. and Directors, lack of actual growth despite earnings beats, growth exists but margins are declining,  no Growth exists but Market Share rising...Union is asking for too much money/benefits.

(3)  Company has a debt?   Look for any semblance of a Debt Exit Strategy and clear evidence the strategy is working and will work.

(4)  Cash Flow!  Cash Flow!  Cash Flow!  Doesn't guarantee you a decent stock at all... But it does guarantee you the company can survive.  I love survivor stocks cause generally, if I make a mistake...I won't lose as much pulling out of them.

(5)  Buy what you know!   I just bought an Activision Video Game, while sipping Snapple, in my FORD Taurus, while my clothes were in the Whirlpool (WHR) Washer.

So I own (F) and (DPS) and (ATVI) and (WHR).

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#2) On May 02, 2009 at 11:05 AM, Alex1963 (27.93) wrote:

Varchild2008 

I was merely commenting that over-emphasis on certain "indicators" is not very useful for predicting trends or making decisions about one's own porfolio. To be blunt I feel too much time is wasted speculating in Caps on the direction of the DOW, S & P etc. I was just a sort of remining folks (esp newbies, like me)  who may have found themselves, as I was, sucked into this low return activity at the expense of consulting more reliable & useful indicators which help to flesh out the big picture.

But thanks for contributing your tips. I use some of that same criteria but tend toward

Low P/E, low P/B, 1/3 off 52 week high, very low debt, high mngt effectiveness & efficiency, 5yr dividend and EPS growth, and I also prefer a high Caps rating from all stars. And most of all companies I feel are in growth potential sectors. However I'm very cautiou still about any financials, travel/liesure, retail and automomotive related for what I see as continued uncertainty. Tho I can see the attraction of the picks you've invested in.

And I don't even look at tobacco, alcohol, or gun related. But that's just me. 

And to clarify-I actually don't have any problem with the macroeconomic picture at all.  And I don't indulge in liking or disliking the trends. They are what they are. Or did you mean "you" as in readers of this post blog? For me I wouldn't have been able to continue to increase my score and maintain my rating without a fairly effective handle on the big picture, IMO. Or manage a portfolio in RL which reflects a 341% annualized return (so far anyway LOL) despite some spectacular mistakes. Of course I also don't discount the possibility that's it's not some or all just plain dumb luck.  

Best of luck in your investing and thank you for the post. And congrats on the "lightning" charm. That's got to be gratifying. I've never gotten that one. I'm still grousing about not having earned my accuracy charm back. Dagnabit!

I did a quick peek at your stats and was curious about your closed to open picks. You have so many in the money picks with high returns open yet a higher % of negative return closed vs positive. I'm still trying to get a handle on the various Caps strategies players use. What strategy are you employing with your Caps portfolio? To what do you attribute the lightning charm too? I want one!

Thank you again for contributing to my blog post

Alex 

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