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alstry (35.38)

A Lesson from a Trader

Recs

16

January 02, 2009 – Comments (21)

Alstry has become a trader since starting CAPs.  I owe a significant gratitude to a blogger formally known as FloridaBuilder who provided great trading perspectives in his blog.  In honing my trading skills, I have taken bits here and there from my formal training as an attorney and my life experiences.  What I think has served me best is an ability to read people...much of that has come from a variety areas....including playing poker.  When one plays poker, he doesn't play his own cards, but rather the cards of his opponent by reading your opponent through his various observable characteristics.

That is not too different from playing the stock market.  Although in the long run, the fundementals will play out, in the short term you must understand the behavior of individuals aggregating into a collective environment.  If you understand people, it will assist you to understand the market.  There are times when the market is rational.  There are other times it seems schizophrenic, bipolar, or manic depressive.  As a trader, you must understand what kind of market you are facing in order to try to make an educated decision on how you should play.....if you so choose.

On New Years Eve, DaretothREdux, posted a satirical blog dedicated solely to me.  If I had posted something similar, TMFDeej's bikini bottoms would have been wound up so tight up his backside, that he would have promptly commented and admonished me on one thing or another.  But true to my perspective of him, he was conspicuously absent on Mr. Dare's blog.  The only reason I mention Deej is that I think he is an employee of Motley Fool, and as an employee, one would think he would be consistent in the application of his admonitions.  Deej, if you are not an employee of Motley Fool, please accept my appology for expressly implying you are a hypocrite.

Appreciating hyprocracy can be applied to the market, or a wall street analyst, or any number of salient issues relevant to trading.  Just because a corporate executive, government official, or analyst says one thing, if hypocracy rules the day, you must consider that in weighing the content of the language against what trading decision you wish to make.

Unlike some, I have no problem with Dare's blog.  It is simply part of the game and without a doubt I invite bantering and gamesmenship.  Quite frankly, I was flattered by Dare's blog.  It is evident that Dare lives on the East Coast.  Based on the timing of the blog, Dare chose to spend the most of the time leading up to 2009 thinking and writing about me while my wife and I were dancing the night away.  It is obvious that my blog has made quite an impression on Mr. Dare.

For fun, let's size up Mr. Dare and pretend he represents the market de jour.  It is obvious, Mr. Dare wants to be a "player" in CAPs in both blogging and the contest to score points based on the following evidence in his comment on December 19th.......

Yesterday I was the #1 7-Day Hottest Member

24 hours later I was the #1 1-Day Coldest Member

My score went from 94.76 to around 24. Sigh...

So what does this tell us....simply that Mr. Dare is a chip counter while he sits at the table.  As a trader, never count your chips while sitting at the table.  This is a sure path to failure because it demonstrates you are an easy read and don't have much conviction in your success.....consequently you are liable to make stupid mistakes.  For example, let's look at a stupid mistake of Mr. Dare........

In his blog on December 20th, he makes the following two statements within three sentences of each other.......

This is not a shameless attempt to bump my own blog and I don't care if you read it or not

My last blog was not as well recieved as its prequel-blog.

Regardless of the truth of the statements, we can determine that they are inconsistent and thus Mr. Dare lacks credibility. 

Now we have a chip counter who is a terrible bluffer.  This kind of market is fun to play in....because you simply go both ways because your opponent probably has a personality disorder and thus makes behavior unpredictable.  Not only that, playing your oponent is easy and getting him Full Tilt is almost effortless.

For example, it is clear that Mr. Dare is a very intelligent person.  He is an employee working in the shadows of someone else but probably given a decent amount of autonomy.  That someone else is probably very successful.  He hangs out and provides information to the "big shot" but carries very little weight at the end of the day.  He strives for material trophies but is usually left wanting in his own eyes.

In knowing this about your oponent, or the market in this case, we can play accordingly.  The market will strive to deceive you in the short term and fundementals take a back seat to psychotic shallow behavior.  However, playing against such a market can be fun once you understand. 

For Alstry its just a game.  Solving puzzles is a passion and I always keep the following in mind:

Focus long on resolve in defining a better understanding in learning definitive executable rationals.

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 02, 2009 at 4:34 AM, DaretothREdux (43.23) wrote:

While I find your analysis of the market like a game of poker dead on and your fellow love of poker not the least bit suprising, you have in fact read me very wrong. I am flattered that you would even take the time to guess who I am, what I do, and where I live!

I do think you have a very valid point though about Deej, and I have seen you rip him a new one more than once. It is very unfair for him to target you the way he does most likely because he disagrees with you. I did not in fact target you because I always disagree with you. Quite the contrary. Most times my sentiments are very much in line with yours. I targeted you because you are popular and because you remind me of my best friend. He and I to this day have long arguments about everything from politics to religion (the two subjects most dangerous to bring up at any party).

Since you have throughly scoured my blogs to find contridictions you should check out my newest one for more hidden gems of information, you don't have to rec it or comment. 

BTW I don't see a contridiction in those two statements. Like you I don't care who reads my blogs, but I am conscious of how they are recieved. Both seem to be statements of truth. A leading question for you: I can know if my blog is well recieved and still not care, can't I?

I welcome this guessing game though. We will call it a poker match of wits.

I will give you this as a clue: I would have loved to have been dancing the night away with my fiancée, but we both work nights and I have yet to give her a New Year's Eve kiss! In all my travels I have never seen the east coast, but hope to some day.

 

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#2) On January 02, 2009 at 5:21 AM, TMFRosetint (98.99) wrote:

Oh gawd, Alstry has moved on from FloridaBuilder and has found a new playmate in DaretothREdux.

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#3) On January 02, 2009 at 6:35 AM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

I am flattered that you would even take the time to guess who I am, what I do, and where I live!

No Guess!!!!  I am fairly certain I know just about exactly where you live...it didn't take any time at all.  Having run through hundreds of deposition transcripts in my life, ferreting out inconsistencies, you my friend are a cakewalk.

Like you I don't care who reads my blogs,

Now you are flattering yourself....  fortunately for both of us, you are nothing like me, you are completely absorbed with who reads your blogs.

I welcome this guessing game though. We will call it a poker match of wits.

How many hands do you think it will take before you fold or I have all your chips????

NOTE:  CAPs members, I promise at the end of this there will be a very important lesson that can be applied to analyzing a business and its stock.  Critical analysis is a very important skill when trying to determine if a stock is fundementally a value or not.  If patience is a virtue, the lesson should be learned in a time frame that might be considered sinful.

Hint:  You are now playing Full Tilt.

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#4) On January 02, 2009 at 8:17 AM, DaretothREdux (43.23) wrote:

Now you're bluffing, Alstry. The personal info I have on CAPS is easily availble. I put it up just recently. You could look there, but then you would have to assume that I am telling the truth.

I believe it was Phil Hellmuth who said: "The song is wrong: you should always know exactly how many chips are front of you." But it could have been someone else.

Shall we do some Alstry analysis now? So, be it. 

You have a strong distrust of others and the world around you. In the game of poker you are more agressive than you should be, and have been know to get caught bluffing by a stronger player (the weaker usually folds). You don't take it well, but you like criticism because it's fuel you run on (what doesn't kill Alstry...). Still though you are self conscious enough to have dropped your "normal" style for this blog which though clouded with economic "lessons" is without a doubt a response to my blog. Tell me. Where has all the triple punctuation gone??? Was it difficult to restrain yourself...from over using the ellipses?

I bring up those last two things because my satire blog mocked those petty things. Did you think I would bring them up if you used them in this blog. Was that a self-conscious choice? In real life I don't care in the least about the ellipses (I must admit that the triple punctuation does bug me a little bit), but I would never argue that it hinders your writing or your ability to get across your point.

Now for some big calls. You are a literary person by nature, but you went to law school for the money. You hated law school and you hated practicing, but at least it made you some money. You married for love and that's probably part of the reason you don't practice anymore. You are a fan of C.S. Lewis and a liberal-minded conservative.

How did I do? It doesn't really matter because my guesses can't be anymore wrong then yours were about me.

Hint: Full Tilt is an alright website, but I don't play online cards anymore. I find I do much better face to face, and I never go on tilt anymore though I used to.

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#5) On January 02, 2009 at 8:34 AM, leftfield4sure (< 20) wrote:

Hmmm a Trader with a long term resolve sounds value based to me.Sure do appreciate that closing line thought;and will apply it to analyzing bussiness not their stock;that would be quite inefficient and redundant.

                                Regards from leftfield  

 

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#6) On January 02, 2009 at 9:14 AM, PDTBiotech (94.01) wrote:

Funny Pics / serious business

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#7) On January 02, 2009 at 10:32 AM, Mary953 (74.21) wrote:

Message received.  Recs all around.  I expect to learn a great deal from the two of you as you are both much wiser in this field than I am.

For what it is worth, I'm a lousy poker player if I care at all about the peoople I am playing with/against.  I am cutthroat against anyone who messes with people I care about - and then I don't bother with cards.

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#8) On January 02, 2009 at 11:06 AM, TMFDeej (99.40) wrote:

Alstry, I'm not exactly a TMF employee.  I'm a community member like you who gets access to TMF services and paid a very, very, very SMALL stipend for reporting on Global Gains companies on the member-only message boards.  I don't have any official responsibilities on CAPS.

I was not trying to single you out the other day and I was not defending Florida either.  My point was that I don't CAPS to degenerate into a Yahoo!-like service with posts mocking others (calling them a whimp, etc...) and flame wars.  CAPS should be better than that. Given your ranking and popularity, you clearly know what you are talking about, I just think that you should be above this sort of thing.

I might have said something had I seen a post mocking you as well, but I have been spending time with my family rather than posting over the past several days. I'm signing off for at least another day or two now.

Deej

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#9) On January 02, 2009 at 11:58 AM, Option1307 (29.72) wrote:

 When one plays poker, he doesn't play his own cards, but rather the cards of his opponent by reading your opponent through his various observable characteristics.

Completely agreed. One thing that I have learned this year is the importance of emotion within the stock market world. Yes, clearly fundamentals of a company and the overall market play a significant role. However, I've come to realize that emotion and people's general expectations are equally important factors within the larger scope of things. This is not a time for investing, this is a traders market right now and emotion is importnat to take into account.

I love your Sh*t talking blogs b/c they are hilarious, and they usually actually have good insight and thoughts within them. Happy New year all!

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#10) On January 02, 2009 at 12:31 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

You could look there, but then you would have to assume that I am telling the truth.

By your own admission, you could be lying......

Just to give you a little....

Now for some big calls. You are a literary person by nature, but you went to law school for the money. You hated law school and you hated practicing, but at least it made you some money. You married for love and that's probably part of the reason you don't practice anymore. You are a fan of C.S. Lewis and a liberal-minded conservative.

You couldn't be further from the accurate.  I am a math orientated person.  I have a embarrassingly poor literary background...you should have been able to glean that from my spelling and grammer.  I loved law school.  It was the most fun I had in my education from a partying standpoint....even working full time clerking for a judge while going to classes.  Most of my friends/classmates were former salespeople of one sort or another and are successful litigators today.  I rarely read a book because law school had the functional equivelant of cliff notes and you could gratuate toward the top of your class without too much effort....if you knew how to play the game.  My nature is more of a litigator and salesman.....and as far as law providing a good living...it was fair at best....I made far more money being a plaintiff suing publicly traded companies as the principal with a very competent lawyers representing me.

I never read CS Lewis....but most those working for or with me have....... 

By the way, when I blog....I make sure what I blog is accurate to the best of my ability.  That is why I always encourage correction, because if I am wrong, nobody benefits more than me from the clarification. 

In addition, I do because it is the only way I know how to play.  When I was practicing, I had the occasion to visit prison.  You quickly learn that even in prision, reputation and character control.  It is amazing how crossing the line once labels you forever, even behind bars.  I guess there really is honor among thieves.

You on the other hand have little honor and blog to create your own fictional world.  You say you are engaged and have a fiance...I seriously doubt it.  You probably are in a second or third marriage and your wife has little repect for you.  You say you work evenings.... but you spent the evening of New Years up through the dropping of the ball blogging about me.  I quote the following from above:

In real life I don't care in the least about the ellipses

You don't care in the your fake world either.....you use them all the time in your blogging while you have highlighted this point twice......an easy tell my friend.  You have a lot more tells that you simply can't escape...like someone who subconsciously scratches his forehead  everytime they have a good hand.

Just like in poker, CEO's and analysts lie and mislead.  It is very important that an analyst knows fact from fiction and appreciates integrity from a sham.  When you mislead in blogging, it simply goes to your character as a blogger, when it is done in business or politics, it can destroy peoples lives and/or their life's savings.

Who you are in real life really doesn't matter....it is who you are in this environment that controls.  This is the game we are all playing....in blogging, versus CAPs ratings, hopefully we are all learning and benefitting each other.  Your online character is built by the collective contents of your blog....no more and no less.

You have thrown a satarical punch right at my nose.....and that is perfrectly fine as I am an easy target.  You even got 21 recommendations doing it....congratulations!!!!!   But I have little  doubt you are the type to run and hide after sucker punching someone from behind.

It would be a lot easier if you were just yourself, and faced me like a person with honor....but you are who you are and niether one of us can change that.  Soon it will be time for CAPs players to learn who you really are...........and learn a lesson in filtering information before making any investment decision.

 

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#11) On January 02, 2009 at 12:46 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

Deej,

Because of CAPs, I have honed my trading skills.  It has proven an invaluble service and environment.  Overall, the players are truly a cut above.  People can make it what the wish.......and if it is constructive time spent.....they may even come back for more.

Maintaining character and integrity in my CAPs community is very important to me.....it is how I define the Alstry environment.....anyone is welcome to come and go as they please. 

If I am out of line, please put me in my place.....but if you are....I will gladly reciprocate.  This applies to all.

Happy New Year and have fun with your family.

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#12) On January 02, 2009 at 12:50 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

Dare,

quick follow up.......

by making this statement, you provided another tell.......it indicates you have knowledge of online poker and how you view yourself........it also gives me another piece of information.

Hint: Full Tilt is an alright website, but I don't play online cards anymore. I find I do much better face to face, and I never go on tilt anymore though I used to.

Sure you do!!!!!!!  Just watch:)

PS:  There is an important reason why the Constitution gives you the right to be silent......most people dig their own holes when the open their mouth.....the more they open....the faster they dig.

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#13) On January 02, 2009 at 12:58 PM, TotheGoodLife (< 20) wrote:

This is stupid, nobody cares about Alstry and Dare having a blogging war. We caps people care about investing and making more money that we have now, so please stop, ALSTRY wins, gameover...... lets get back to making money with great strategies that ALSTRY provides.  No more poker tells, full tilt, reading cards, this is an investment website, not the felt. I do love poker tho.... hehehehe. less poker more investing.

 P.S. what do you think about TCK

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#14) On January 02, 2009 at 1:08 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

What do FloridaBuilder, DaretothREdux, and  TotheGoodLife all have in common......

they all say "hehehe" when they get a little nervous blogging.

Now that is a tough tick to forget.

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#15) On January 02, 2009 at 1:08 PM, DaretothREdux (43.23) wrote:

You on the other hand have little honor and blog to create your own fictional world.

You are probably half right. At least the part about my blogs being a fictional world. Of in your typical Alstry fashion you have created a trap here. I now have two options as you present it:

1. I blog because I am selfish and simply for personal justification.

or

2. I blog to create some naive fictional world beyond the realm of possibily.

I will shamelessly choose option number two. I blog (not unlike yourself) in a search for the truth. Only I don't find the Socratic Method so useful as a means to the truth. I find it very useful in casting doubt and often as you use it (the way of a good lawyer) to steer a person towards your opinion. If you truly believed in the Socratic Method, then you would never firmly believe you knew anything. Socrates after all said, "As for me, all I know is that I know nothing."

But all you know is that you're right. You have tons of blogs to point out everytime you perceive yourself as right. Do you like the show House M.D.? The things you say about yourself make me think of him, and that's a compliment for the most part. But House is so wrapped up in always being right that he will do anything, anything at all to discover the truth even to his own detriment or to the detriment of others.

The other part of your comment as to my honor I wont even justify with a response because you think you know who I am, but you have been wrong everytime so far.

Another small note as me lying, in poker I believe they call it bluffing. And the casino I go to has one rule about bluffing. You can tell your opponent what you have as long as it isn't the truth!

To my knowledge I have not lied to you about anything with one exception and that was really more of a mistake than an out right lie. I have been to the east coast (but do not live on it). It was late and I was tired and I mistakenly confused the east coast with the west coast (which I have never seen).

It would be a lot easier if you were just yourself, and faced me like a person with honor.

Another attempt at a slight on my honor. I am not so easily agitated as you perhaps you are. As for being myself, that is precisely what I am doing!

You were asking for a puzzle, so I gave you one. You did not ask for me to come outright and state who I am, and when you are done with your guessing game maybe I will.

Who you are in real life really doesn't matter.

Ha! Now sometimes I wonder if even you believe the crap that comes from your own mouth sometimes. We both know it matters, in real life, blogging, and otherwise.

Final Note: What reason would I have to lie about anything? Don't think you can figure out who I am simply by the time I blog. For example today I would normally be asleep, but I have tonight off (in place of New Year's) and I like to stay up on my days off. Also, works gets a little dull sometimes and so pass the time by reading financial news and MF blogs (I like the blog must better than most TMF employee articles), and occasionally when the muse strikes, I write my own.

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#16) On January 02, 2009 at 1:12 PM, DaretothREdux (43.23) wrote:

alstry,

You seem to be the one on tilt...

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#17) On January 02, 2009 at 1:15 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

I am not so sure......but you are a fun diversion while trading.

And by the way, thanks for all your help.........it truly has proved very valuble.

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#18) On January 02, 2009 at 1:16 PM, TotheGoodLife (< 20) wrote:

Alsty,

 Im not nervous, i just like saying HEHEHEH when i feel like putting my two cents in. This is fun, but seriously can we get back to investing, and im not like Florida or Dare. Im a 26 year old male who lives in Indianapolis who sells Mobile Homes. Make good money doing it to. Not married, no kids, maybe someday. Went to Purdue, and drive a Ford Taurus. Oh I love this.

P.S. TCK what are you veiws on it.

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#19) On January 02, 2009 at 1:19 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

You also use elipses too:)

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#20) On January 02, 2009 at 8:43 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

after sucker punching someone from behind

I can't believe that you thought this is what he did.  Don't you have a sense of humor about yourself?  Lighten up.

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#21) On January 02, 2009 at 9:05 PM, TheAbbevilleKid (< 20) wrote:

Ok children...I've come to read about trading and stocks, and have walked through a time warp into the AOL flame message boards... Agree to Disagree, Hug it out, and lets get back to trying to make some money.

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