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Varchild2008 (84.31)

A Look at the HYPNO TOAD reveals a Dec. 2007 Contrarian...



July 29, 2009 – Comments (4)

"All glory to The Hypno Toad


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December 12, 2007 – Comments (1)

All glory to The Hypno Toad

1 Comments – Post Your Own#1) On December 12, 2007 at 11:05 AM, Hodarius (< 20) wrote:

All glory to The Hypno Toad

Yeah, I took advantage of yesterday's dip by picking up a couple more leveraged ETFs.

to The Hypno Toad ... All glory

I know, a lot of people are expecting a recession, but that's a big reason why I'm bullish on the market. I think much of that pessimism is already priced into stocks. "

-----Why oh Why did the HYPNO TOAD lead this poor soul astray?  And will the Hypno Toad ever say something besides "All Glory to the Hypno Toad?"  Ever since April 2007, that's all we hear ----  Varchild2008 "All Glory to the.....nevermind"

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 29, 2009 at 9:24 PM, portefeuille (98.93) wrote:

He would have done great had he just listened to himself.


I just did Google searches on “Dow 6000,” “Dow 5000,” and “Dow 4000,” and 5000 has about twice as many returns as either of the other two, so that seems to be the most common forecast right now.

The reason contrarian investing works is because the actions of the majority tend to work against their predictions. Presumably, all of the people who believe any one of these forecasts (4000, 5000, 6000) have already made their decision to either (1) cash out now and wait for the bottom, or (2) stay in stocks the whole way and tough out the temporary losses. In other words, these prognosticators won’t be doing any more selling between here and their targets, and therefore won’t be causing any near-term price declines. That means that either the bottom is already here, in which case all of these forecasts are wrong, or that any losses going forward from here will be due to other investors changing their minds, cashing out of stock positions, and creating their own set of bottom forecasts.  Eventually, so many people will be cashed out and forecasting further drops that there will be too few sellers left to cause any more price declines.  That will mark the bottom of the market, and the rally that follows will leave a huge group of incorrect bearish forecasts in its wake.


(from here, posted March 11, 2009)

Now have a look at his score line -> hodarius.

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#2) On July 29, 2009 at 9:58 PM, Varchild2008 (84.31) wrote:

Good Ole ALSTRY is there commenting about DOW 1000!!  ROFLMAO.

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#3) On July 29, 2009 at 10:46 PM, portefeuille (98.93) wrote:

yes, he is indeed ...


#5) On March 11, 2009 at 4:30 PM, alstry (99.76) wrote: CAN ANYONE SAY DOW 1000???????? U.S. Feb. individual income tax receipts at 24-year low


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#4) On July 30, 2009 at 12:52 AM, awallejr (34.04) wrote:

Wow this rally has not been kind to hodarius.

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