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alstry (35.28)

A Moment Of Silence......

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April 12, 2010 – Comments (4)

FOR ALL THE TAXPAYERS WE LOST TODAY AND ARE ABOUT TO LOSE.......AND THE GOVERNMENT WORKERS KEEP GETTING RAISES????

Budget Problems Building in Buffalo NY 

LA Teachers Approve Shorten School Year, Furloughs VS Layoffs

Update: St Vincent Hospital NY - 1,500+ Layoffs with Closing

Pizza Hut ( International ) Iceland - Closing all But 1 Store

Pilgrims Pride Closing HQ in East Texas , and Satellite Office in Georgia 

Baron's Hallmark Shop in East Stroudsburg Pa

Pyle Meat Company in Eudora

Mortgage Brokerage Firms Closing in Face of New Rules 

Menasha Joint School District - Meeting Tonight to decide on up to 50 Layoffs

Engine Maker Wartsila ( International ) - 900 Temp Layoffs

The Jackson County School District GA - 47

Moorpark, Oxnard and Ventura colleges - Tuesdays Vote on Eliminating 33 Positions 

The Salinas Union High School District - 3 Layoffs and Other Positions Eliminated 

Sunshine Mills in Halifax - Job Cuts but Unknown Number

Wellsville Central School NY - Considering 25

Accomack County - New Budget could = 19 Job Cuts

City of Chattanooga - 100+ Possible

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 12, 2010 at 11:28 AM, jdlech (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, I'm thinking the local mom and pop stores might experience a comeback as everything fails.  People still have to eat and use toilet paper - even as the big companies that rely on scale to compete on price fail due to demand destruction. It might be best to buy into small local businesses and cottage industry shops.

Another thing is that people will tolerate only so much taxation even as they lose services (especially as they lose services).  Rising taxes should prompt small businesses to barter more under the table.  It's not so easy for big companies to get away with it.

Worst case scenario has the economy contract down to the value of the physical assets.  As long as there is electricity and gasoline, there is a bottom.  Those who can still work with their hands (and have working equipment) should lead any recovery.

Thoughts?

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#2) On April 12, 2010 at 11:30 AM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

This article ties in well with your oft-repeated thoughts on the unsustainability of a credit dependent consumer economy: 

Interest Rates Have Nowhere to Go but Up

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Interest-Rates-Have-Nowhere-nytimes-100442253.html;_ylt=AhOlrPpp7.KozHSmuda7Ose7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1bWp2bzhmBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpbnRlcmVzdHJhdGU-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode= 

"Though still very low by historical standards, the rise of bond yields since then is reversing a decline that began in 1981, when 10-year note yields reached nearly 16 percent.

From that peak, steadily dropping interest rates have fed a three-decade lending boom, during which American consumers borrowed more and more but managed to hold down the portion of their income devoted to paying off loans.

Indeed, total household debt is now nine times what it was in 1981 — rising twice as fast as disposable income over the same period — yet the portion of disposable income that goes toward covering that debt has budged only slightly, increasing to 12.6 percent from 10.7 percent."

Once that trend reverses, why wouldn't you expect a decade or more of economic contraction?  Growth has been driven by consistently declining interest rates.  We've seen mortgage rates well below long term averages for the past decade...a return to 7-8% mortgage rates could push home prices down another 20-30% from what many already consider depressed levels.  We now have a whole generation that doesn't even know what "normal" rates are...we're in for a rude awakening.

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#3) On April 12, 2010 at 12:53 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

jd....

right now the ONLY thing sustaining the American economy is our pension/retirement accounts buying treasuries, corporate, and municipal bonds.  About $4 trillion per year worth.

Wall Street and Government can lose money indefinitely as long as they have access to credit.  The public home builders are a perfect example.

The Mom and Pop have NO CHANCE in this environment.  This whole policy has been engineered to reach this conclusion.......it is simply what happens when you Zombulate an economy.

It is in part why the stock market is no longer relevant anymore.  Soon, government will mathematically need to confiscate everything we have simply to sustain itself.......

And if the government continues to print, a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread could exceed prices that few of us can contemplate.....so if you think about it, as long as the nation continues to focus on the ticker and not the economy......we are heading down a very dangerous path......if you hold the concept of private property rights and the Constitution with any importance.

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#4) On April 13, 2010 at 8:56 AM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, although I think you are a little outrageous, I still respect your opinion and views. On the government employees not counting to the # of people employed, that is true, to a SMALL degree. Granted, they are overpaid and there are way too many of them, Government employees provide an intrinsic value for our society. Also, they might not provide the economic utility such as a manufacturing job, you cannot discount the benefit of having them receiving money (I didnt even call them wages, just for you) if nothing else but to contribute to consumption.

 

Also, in your last blog you had mentioned how you had lost millions. I was just curious if you would comment on that? Did you lose it in the market or did you lose it in your own business? If you lost it in the market, when was this?

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