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A More Bearish View: A Crash Course for non-Bears [Video]

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December 06, 2008 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS , UDN

A prudent man seeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and suffer for it.  

Proverbs 27:12

 SUMMARY 

Most Boomers are planning their future retirement on a model of expectation based on past experiences ie 6-8% return on stocks, constant rising real estate, defined Social security payout, defined benefits, reasonable food and gas prices, etc…. But I am a 100% certain that the next 20 years are not going to be anything like the last 20 years.  Many Boomers that retire too early, or live a lifestyle based on legacy economics are in for a shock, as thing unwind.

 DETAILS 

You should be thankful for what you have: your health, family, ten fingers, ten toes, drinkable water, indoor plumbing, US citizenship, heaters, shoes on you feet, etc….

 

Being Bearish does not mean that you have to be unhappy or unthankful, it is just means you recognize the circumstance and mathematics of the current market condition. Also, for the brave and entrepreneurs there will be huge opportunities to acquire wealth, as thing evolve and you move ahead to seize opportunities.

 

In Oct 08, while drinking coffee, I started a conversation with a couple of retired Baby Boomers, who had recently bought a condo on the water in Virginia. Their daughter in her 20s, had moved back in with them, she was unable to find a job that paid enough to support her.

 

The “baby boomer wife” said she felt sorry for the young people today, because the price of housing had gone up so much, young people could not afford to buy a house.  She did not recognize the housing bubble, even though it was very evident to anyone in the city we were in. That housing in her town, would fall significantly to be in line with rents, was not in her current vision.

 

I did not tell the “baby boomer wife”, what I thought. What for? She did not recognize my status as High Score here in Fooldom! My Top Fool Ribbon earned on 21 Nov 08 [abitarePERFECT], meant nothing to her. I would just sound like a “doom and gloom” mad man. Why waste the calories and time teaching those on the “small bus” of economic understanding.

 

But I will tell you Fools what I think: Some “Baby Boomers” get it [the prudent] and some [the simple] do not. 

 

The US government is moving towards insolvency, the US dollars role as the worlds reserve currency is being challenged [ref Breton Woods II], many state governments are moving toward insolvency [CA, NJ, MN], airlines [all legacy carriers], automobile [F, GM], manufacturing, construction firms, are moving toward bankruptcy. The sum of bad news bad news coming out can be overwhelming.

 

Today, I would like to introduce the Crash Course to help Fools, who do not understand the current circumstance. The video is approximately an hour, watch the complete video.

  

Crash Course by Chris Martenson

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-1-three-beliefs

 

Hat tip, to JGus for finding this OUTSTANDING video.

 

NOTE: One of the benefits of success here in Fooldom is the increasing of Groupies and subsequent wisdom added to the dialogue when you post a blog.

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 06, 2008 at 2:53 PM, abitare (96.86) wrote:

FYI - David Walker on CNBC

 

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#2) On December 06, 2008 at 9:28 PM, johnw106 (60.49) wrote:

I want to see what the details are in Obama's plans. Our highways and rails are in terrible shape, this is true. But how and when will he break out that scapel and start trimming the fat from the government?
Will he have the guts to stand in front of the people and tell them to stop using credit and going into debt and start using cash-pay as you go?
Will he realize that going green on enregy makes sense economic wise and has nothing to do with hugging trees?

And when is the next dip in the DOW coming. I see nothing to stop it from hitting the mean of 6,000.

Got gold and Jesus?

 

By the way even though I dislike your arrogant attitude I do enjoy your blogs. Are you by chance a right wing wig?

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#3) On December 06, 2008 at 11:10 PM, JGus (28.80) wrote:

Abitare - thanks for the 'hat tip'! I am honored to receive a thank you from one of the top fools : )

I caught on to Chris Martenson in August. I went through the entire crash course in one night (it's actually closer to 2.5 hours). As a result, I ended up pulling about $40,000 from our Roth IRA's in September(everything I could pull without incuring any penalties). This kept us from losing about $15k. I don't think he's necessarily right on everything, but I do think he's right on most things. I can't recommend his site highly enough (many of my posts are simply copied and pasted from him).

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#4) On December 07, 2008 at 12:32 AM, abitare (96.86) wrote:

JGus,

The video is a great find. Thank you for the link. I share many of Martenson's ideas, he has put them together better then me. I am surprised I have not come across him before. 

I like Mish Shedlock and James Kunslter, also. You should take a read of their stuff also.

johnw106,

Obama is inheriting a mess. There is little he can do about it, but he can definately make things worse and that seems to be his plan. But James Kunstler gave him a good write up and plan of attack. There are no easy answers or pain free solutions. 

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#5) On December 07, 2008 at 5:49 AM, DemonDoug (83.12) wrote:

i agree, great find jgus, and great post abitare.

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#6) On December 07, 2008 at 11:20 AM, Mary953 (71.84) wrote:

"When I was a child, I spoke as a child"  and rode the little yellow bus dutifully investing my money in the funds recommended by Merrill Lynch, American Express, or others.  I learned that if I made anything, it was taken in commissions. I determined that there had to be a better way. I have decided that while TMF subscriptions are good, the true gold to be mined can be found in the blogs where I can learn from you good gentlemen.  High score, Top Fool Ribbons, and other charms are not given lightly and expertise is immediately on display for all to see.

Abitare, DemonDoug, johnw106, and JGus  I have read a number of blogs and comments from each of you and you are teaching me a great deal.  I suspect that you reach more people than you know.  I am the newbie seeking retirement info and help, but more, I am seeking knowledge to make informed decisions and I thank you all.  Peace and joy of the season!

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#7) On December 07, 2008 at 3:09 PM, Tastylunch (29.35) wrote:

My impression is most boomers do not get it yet, but more are catching on very rapidly. and when they do watch below in the market if they pull money enmasse.

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#8) On December 07, 2008 at 11:01 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

Thanks so much.  Really great video.

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#9) On December 08, 2008 at 12:44 AM, JoshUNC (20.43) wrote:

I like Peter Schiff, he tells it like it REALLY is... And what we NEED to do to get OUT of this mess we are in... I know it's not what people want to hear but I truly feel it's the TRUTH.

Since I have signed up for the fool newsletter I have stood back and tried to look at the big picture and I don't feel NOW is the time to invest my money in the stock market with the way the government is running the show instead I feel much SAFER investing in gold and silver.

Peter Schiff CNN Debate Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/v/-BmqthF1LVM&hl=en&fs=1"> name="allowFullScreen" value="true">http://www.youtube.com/v/-BmqthF1LVM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344">

Peter Schiff CNN Debate Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/v/0HQPuU-oJqg&hl=en&fs=1"> name="allowFullScreen" value="true">http://www.youtube.com/v/0HQPuU-oJqg&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344">

Peter Schiff Analogies

http://www.youtube.com/v/vweLBpE4mso&hl=en&fs=1"> name="allowFullScreen" value="true">http://www.youtube.com/v/vweLBpE4mso&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344">

Peter Schiff vs Bernanke

http://www.youtube.com/v/JtzaYP2tRx0&hl=en&fs=1"> name="allowFullScreen" value="true">http://www.youtube.com/v/JtzaYP2tRx0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344">

I feel if you REALLY want to protect your money in this "Blank Check" goverment spending I suggest you buy silver and gold.

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#10) On December 08, 2008 at 12:56 AM, JoshUNC (20.43) wrote:

Sorry did not enter the links right... here they are again.

Peter Schiff CNN Debate Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BmqthF1LVM

Peter Schiff CNN Debate Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HQPuU-oJqg

Peter Schiff Analogies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweLBpE4mso

Peter Schiff vs Bernanke

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtzaYP2tRx0

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