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A New CAPS Leader?

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May 09, 2009 – Comments (35)

I am bored at work, so I thought I would toss out a question.  Over the past few weeks many of the top Fools (who were/are all bears) have started to falter and others have crept into the top 20 of CAPS.  My question is, who thinks this rally will continue long enough to see a new CAPS leader?  Will a bull finally take over the top position?  If a bull does not take over yet, when will one (it is inevitable that bulls will eventually take over the top positions given the points advantage they will enjoy over time)?

35 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 09, 2009 at 8:09 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Some of the top ten are not all bears.  They also have large moats. They are at the top because of their accuracy rating, not thier total number of points.  The accuaracy makes up the critical 25% needed to be in the top.  With their large volume of picks they can take some losses on current picks.  They also find a percentage of stocks that will not beat the market. I have some picks that are up 10%, but the market is up 25%, so they are still losing.

Yes, overall, upthumbs can score more than down thumbs, but it generally takes more time. It depends also on how fast they churn their picks. 

I have a blog post as well on the revenge of the bulls and how caps will flip, but I don't know that there will be much change in the top handful of players, but there will be some large changes on the 11-100 spots.

Everyday has pretty much quit Caps, so that slot will turn at some point unless Michael changes his mind, but the top ten have longevity that gives them a nice moat.

OF course Bravo just picks anything that popped to drop and anything that dropped to pop as he is after the leader board spots.  This strategy does often work in the short run.  His chance of keeping any one spot on the board for any length of time, however is remote, but does do his homework and is good for cribbing ideas.

Good luck. 

 

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#2) On May 09, 2009 at 9:00 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

PS. Tenmiles is an example of a top ten with green thumbs.

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#3) On May 10, 2009 at 1:01 AM, RonChapmanJr (33.57) wrote:

TSIF - The top ten have been all bears in the past.  Also, I understand how the rating system works, I don't know why you are explaining it. 

I already made the point that over time green thumbs will beat red thumbs.

There will eventually be change in the top spots, my question was when is that going to happen.

Also, Tenmiles is a skeptic if you look at his charms.

ron

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#4) On May 10, 2009 at 9:44 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Ron, lots of people read these blogs, some new and some not.  I'm sorry if you think I was explaining the rating system to you specifically, but I look at blogs as an open forum.  I don't agree with your premise that bulls will win in a bull rally automatically nor do I agree with your premise that all top players are bears.

Some of the top ten are able to adjust to the market. Tenmiles is an example of this and what makes him a top player. Charms are not the best way to look for patterns.  Over 75% of tenmiles active calls are out perform. The majority of the underperform were made long ago.  If you look in more detail, he is adapting.  Few people have any vast experience with a recession and how we unwind from one.  It's not the direction of the picks, but the quality of the picks. A player picking both up and down thumbs could have a better outcome than one sprouting all green even in a sharp rebound.

Bravobevo also has over 75% green thumbs.  I didn't dissect all the top players, but not all are hard core bears, nor should one expect a good player to be loyal to the bull or bear shirts.

I agree with your premise that the top spots are subject to some churn, especially those who are hard core negative. I just don't believe it will necessarily be that drastic. Since a green thumb could net you zero points in even the sharpest rebound then I think a mix of red and green are the best. I am seeing a burst of ups and corrections and some players will ride these both ways. Regardless it's quality of picks. Many top equities will not beat the S&P, but will pace it....ie. zero points.

So I don't agree with your premise that all of the top players are negative, nor do I agree with your premise that green thumbs will vastly outperform in a bull market.  I do agree that being overly negative in a bull market will bite you.

Good luck with obtaining that top spot.

TSIF

 

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#5) On May 10, 2009 at 12:40 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.57) wrote:

Oh Ok.  That explains the rating explanation.  :)

I think you still missed my point however, I was saying that the top had been dominated by bears.  Obviously now that "UltraLong" is #4 that is no longer true.   I've been on CAPS for a couple of years now and the top has always been a majority of bears.  

A continuation of this rally will put UltraLong in the top spot.  I was asking whether others thought this rally would last long enough to see that happen or whether some other bull will take over the top spot at some farther off point in the future.  

Eventually a green thumbed bull will be in the top spot of CAPS.  It may be years and years away, but it will happen.

Also, thanks for the good luck wishes but I do not put enough thought or time into my picks to be in the top spot.  :)

ron

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#6) On May 10, 2009 at 12:47 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

A continuation of this rally will put UltraLong in the top spot.

not so fast ... it might ...

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#7) On May 10, 2009 at 12:58 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

1,2, ...

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#8) On May 10, 2009 at 2:06 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Ah!  Our number 8 player with "real picks" and all green picks but one!  Go get 'em.

Another question I've been pondering is whether some of the players who could have been contenders have gotten too entrwined in Elliott and are not using thier logic or their gut, which could be more accurate. 

I think some "real picks" can beat the ETF's that UltraLong has staked out, even if the bull rally continues. But picks that beat ETF's do take either luck, skill, time, and did I say LUCK! :)

 Good luck!

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#9) On May 10, 2009 at 2:20 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

i will do my very best

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#10) On May 10, 2009 at 6:50 PM, SideShowMel0329 (52.13) wrote:

I hope to see people like dwot, Specbear, GMX fall off the top ten because they really shouldn't be there. A horrible bear market has pushed these tinfoil wearing lucky CAPs users to the top, but I think as we see more years pass by, we'll start seeing the better overall users take control of the top ten.

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#11) On May 10, 2009 at 7:41 PM, Alex1963 (28.90) wrote:

Hey Ron (& all)

I think the overall market trend will be up for awhile at least maybe until the end of the year. But IMO it's just too hard to say definitively since I don't think we've heard the last of the bad news in the financial sector. That to me is the Achilles heel of the US & global bull market runs. However after witnessing this "bull headed" rally since early March despite all 'evidence" to the contrary I have begun to feel that the broad sentiment is we are going to be in a bull market unless really catastrophic news or events reverses the prevailing investor psychology. Something on the order of Alstry, Schiff, Abitare predictions/warnings. It seems the US economy is showing some strength and the world economies are not nearly as bad as events would have seemd to indicate they'd be. Some countries even look promising to me, like China, Australia, Brazil et al. For me I'm learning 1st hand what everyone says which is the market will do what it's gonna do. You can be right for months-get stuck in thinking you've figured it out and then get brutally humbled. So the best play is to be positioned to capitalize on both scenarios. And not to get to married to any worldview. IMO, of course. It seems to me that most of the top 10s have weathered both the bubble of '08 and the subsequent drop and nor the rally/rollercoaster which indicates to me they can and do adjust as they sense the winds changing. Of course statistics seem to say that most investors rarely profit more than 2 out of 3 years so we'll see. I'm too new to know who's been on top for the long haul beyong what I pick up in the blogs here.

Off topic maybe, I've been reading some behavioral finance books lately and my new interest is trying to figure out how I myself react to the market. Understanding my own biases, strengths and weaknesses is also critical to success not just sussing the market or individual stocks. There are many common blind spots and judgment errors even the most experienced and successful investors make-over & over. Learning to recognize them in my own investing wil I hope take me to the next level.I suspect it is knowing their own styles and biases which help keep the top people at the top. Of course unlike you guys, I'm so new I figure I can only improve-LOL. If anyone reading this blog has not read at least one good behavioral Finance book I think you are really missing out on useful information. particularly if you monitor certain market indicators like the Put/Call ratios, Mutual Fund Cash Balances etc. Some of these are accurate and others that are widely believed to be accurate or contrarian are not, with rigorous studies to prove it. Really interesting stuff! 

Good post & comments rec from me

Alex 

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#12) On May 10, 2009 at 8:30 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

It seems to me that most of the top 10s have weathered both the bubble of '08 and the subsequent drop and nor the rally/rollercoaster which indicates to me they can and do adjust as they sense the winds changing.

foolsmethrice on that on February 11, 2009 (see comment #4 here):

The top players here can't shift gears even though this is when your supposed to buy.  I don't know if you've noticed but their scores have mostly flatlined.  So in all of this turmoil, since October I've gone from 4000 points to 9000 caught up and passed those I thought were unreachable.  And I thought this was a bear market.

and related (from here):

In one sign that managers are feeling the pressure, David Einhorn, of the $5.1 billion Greenlight Capital fund in New York, has shifted to a more positive stance, helping the fund gain 4.4% in the first quarter of 2009 after posting losses of 22.7% last year.

"Wrong-footed longs become smaller problems in market declines, while wrong-footed shorts become bigger problems as the market bounces," Greenlight said in a May 1 investor letter.

 

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#13) On May 10, 2009 at 8:55 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.57) wrote:

Portefeuille,

While you are doing an amazing job with points, your accuracy will not be high enough to get you into the top spot anytime soon.  I'm sticking with my prediction that a continuation of this rally will put UltraLong into the top spot.

ron

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#14) On May 10, 2009 at 9:09 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

maybe. Giving "accuracy" this kind of prominence in the ranking system (and even more so the attempts of some players to "enhance" theirs) is a joke. bravobevo should be no. 1 ...

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#15) On May 11, 2009 at 12:06 PM, Alex1963 (28.90) wrote:

portefeuille

Why do you feel accuracy is over emphasized. I think it is critical to judging a players merit.

I know I don't get the all "gaming" in & outs but still for me it's a big factor in choosing favorites.

Just curious

Thanks

Alex 

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#16) On May 11, 2009 at 1:02 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I might propose a better ranking system "someday" ...

Actually I like the idea of writing "pitches" for players.

The reasons why some player is ranked in the "caps" ranking system far higher/lower than in an "intelligent" ranking system could easily be written down in a few sentences (you might call that player "overvalued"/"undervalued") even before actually specifying that "intelligent" alternative system.

And after the first few pitches there might be a shorthand notation developing like:

K+X - player knows something about X 

K-X - player obviously knows very little about X (like "Elizabeth A. Coleman"-"Fed"&"her job"&"economics" (1,2)

C_X - player copies player X

S - player tries to enhance his "accuracy" by restarting his call as soon as it has passed 5 score points (stupid)

D - player did not really do "anything" in the past year (dead)

etc.

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#17) On May 11, 2009 at 2:31 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I am currently #2, so comment #13 is about to be challenged (strange, since you are right, my "accuracy" is "rather poor" (in the "caps" system)) ...

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#18) On May 11, 2009 at 2:35 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

(I think I will better not touch my calls today)

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#19) On May 11, 2009 at 2:37 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

(The ranking system is still a joke! I do not want to be part of a game that might rank me #1!)

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#20) On May 11, 2009 at 4:18 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

I hope to see people like dwot, Specbear, GMX fall off the top ten because they really shouldn't be there. A horrible bear market has pushed these tinfoil wearing lucky CAPs users to the top, but I think as we see more years pass by, we'll start seeing the better overall users take control of the top ten. -- Sideshow

Take it away, great one--I'm waiting expectantly. Be that "better user." You are one of the most rude users I've seen on CAPS.

----

In all honesty, bears are smarter than bulls. That said, some bears will be able to transition into bull mode for awhile. I made a nice chunk of points off the bounce initially in March, I just failed to understand how delusionally excessive the Nasdaq/dead banks rally would be. When we get a genuine bottom, I shall join all you green thumbers for awhile.

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#21) On May 11, 2009 at 4:42 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.57) wrote:

Portefeuille, Comment #13 won't be challenged anytime soon.  :)  You are currently about 6 accuracy points behind Everyday.  That much of an advantage in accuracy is worth several thousand points. 

GMX, do you have support for your bears are smarter than bulls comment?  I would definitely disagree.

ron

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#22) On May 11, 2009 at 4:58 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

Portefeuille,

While you are doing an amazing job with points, your accuracy will not be high enough to get you into the top spot anytime soon.  I'm sticking with my prediction that a continuation of this rally will put UltraLong into the top spot.

ron

I got top fool over Everyday two weeks ago and I have a significant accuracy disadvantadge. Due to the way ultraETFS work, it is highly unlikely UltraLong would make it to #1 even if the rally were to continue.

---

Most bears I know are very flexible in their thinking. As the contrarians of the market, they must react quickly when events change. Since the market gradually rises over time, bears must be smart consistently or they lose all their capital since mere gradual rises will destroy a bear. Also, most of the bears I know were out by the time the market actually hit 666. My CAPS profile(and my real money account) were losing money from the time the S&P went from 740 to 666, and I gained 1,500 points in the two weeks after 666 as my CAPS portfolio went long the FAS and C's of the world.

Bulls however, are highly unlikely to actively try to get out at market extremes and are more prone to foolish activity such as buy-and-hold. A short-and-hold bear is a dead bear, but bad investing practices as a bull only damper your performance rather than destroying you.

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#23) On May 11, 2009 at 5:11 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Well, I (ca. 11000/84.4) was "ahead of" ultralong (ca. 8300/95) and tenmiles (ca. 9300/88.6) when I wrote comment #17, so it is pretty "dense" "here".

goldminingxpert had ca. (10500/88) when he was no. 1 on April 6 ...

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#24) On May 11, 2009 at 5:16 PM, UKIAHED (35.33) wrote:

Hi Ron, lots of people read these blogs, some new and some not.  I'm sorry if you think I was explaining the rating system to you specifically, but I look at blogs as an open forum.

 

I am one of those new people that read the blogs to learn – about investments that I may have missed – about this “game” – and just for the amusement of it all.  So do, please, keep some basic explanations in your posts – do not assume that all of us have been here since the beginning…

As a Bull/Bear agnostic – I do not just make one call on a stock.  I typically dollar cost average into (and out of) a position.  I would love to see the CAPS picks allow me to do that. In real life – I do not just make the decision to red thumb or green thumb my positions (which seems a bit 2 dimensional to me…).  Instead I may add a second green thumb to my account (by adding more shares at a lower price – adding a 3rd dimension).  Well, anyway, I suspect you get my point.

Any ideas on why this “game” cannot model a little closer to the complexities of real investing?

 

Have a great day.

Ed

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#25) On May 11, 2009 at 5:24 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

Ultralong lost 600 points today. Even a slight pullback will knock him entirely out of the discussion whereas porters good single-stock picks (DNDN) give more longevity at the top. That said, we are in the process of topping and someday soon, my underwater ETF picks shall be reborn.

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#26) On May 11, 2009 at 5:41 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I do not just make the decision to red thumb or green thumb my positions (which seems a bit 2 dimensional to me…)

That would actually resemble a discrete space (like {-1,0,+1}), so the (topological) dimension is 0.

(just an aside)

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#27) On May 11, 2009 at 5:57 PM, UKIAHED (35.33) wrote:

That would actually resemble a discrete space (like {-1,0,+1}), so the (topological) dimension is 0.

Ah the joys of math – I hoped that I’d get at least one dimensionally based correction.  Thanks for the chuckle!

 

Ed

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#28) On May 13, 2009 at 1:36 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

This whole discussion makes me laugh...lol

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#29) On May 15, 2009 at 3:26 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

So this is it... We worship the top tens and feel good... Americans love top tens...

Nobody cares about interesting blogs. 

But hey we've got this nice guy called gmx... He continues to separate you from your money since early April... but still everybody loves him... ah well

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#30) On May 15, 2009 at 3:29 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

Camistocks, shame on you, you dirty liar. If you read my stuff instead of just making stuff up, you'd have seen this where I said NOT TO SHORT the market in early April. I didn't say the market was topping until Apr. 30.

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#31) On May 15, 2009 at 3:30 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Your blogs are great and I feel somewhat ashamed of having been part of this top 10 discussion. Sorry for that - ich werde mich bessern ...

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#32) On May 15, 2009 at 3:44 PM, JibJabs (84.26) wrote:

"Since the market gradually rises over time, bears must be smart consistently or they lose all their capital since mere gradual rises will destroy a bear." 

"In all honesty, bears are smarter than bulls."

Fighting the tide doesn't seem very wise to me . . . Count me stupid if smart means to look at a historically rising market and to fight it.

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#33) On May 15, 2009 at 6:34 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

Fighting the tide doesn't seem very wise to me . . . Count me stupid if smart means to look at a historically rising market and to fight it.

This is a good point. Most people aren't bears because of this. However, markets drop much more quickly than they can rise, thus making it worth my while to short stuff when the market clearly has a negative bias as it has had from October 2007 to present.

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#34) On May 15, 2009 at 10:00 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

(comment #31 is in response to comment #29)

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#35) On June 07, 2009 at 9:43 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

But hey we've got this nice guy called gmx... He continues to separate you from your money since early April... but still everybody loves him... ah well

If you blindly follow someone's advice and lose your money without doing your own research, you deserve to lose money.

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