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A 'new' Strategy that i've found (i think this will get recs) BUY WNR

Recs

21

August 18, 2009 – Comments (24) | RELATED TICKERS: SUNE , WNR , MWA

This is not really very new, but it's ease of implementation is new to me.

So we are benchmarking to the S/P, but our Limit Orders are in dollars. We have the charts that show comparison for day/week/month/year/etc, but if you want info from specific moments, it's clumsy.

Go to Yahoo, and type in the stock you are researching. Go to the 1 year chart (for example) and use the comparison tab at the top of the chart to compare to the S/P. 

Place your mouse/pointer over the chart, and you will see a little blue ball that tracks along the timeline as you mouse around. Place the dot on the lowest point the stock was at vs the S/P. This is sometimes hard to discern, because the lines are going all over the place, so start somewhere near the left.

Look at the top of the chart and read the date.

At the bottom of the chart is a subchart. There is a date box, and a set of arrows. Type the date in question into the box, and hit enter.

Re-evaluate the chart, and see if there is an even lower point for your stock vs the S/P. Discern the date, and enter you date again (as many times as needed to get where you want).

This will tell you what the percent amount of difference your stock is from it's lowest point within your original timeframe. 

This might be useful to the patient for picking entry points. 

 

Yes i know that this has little to do with stocks that are never coming down, or with stocks that are never coming back up, but when added to your other research it may help setting long wait limits.
   In this method you will sometimes not get the stock you want, but if you are fairly certain that a stock is an eventual winner, it may help with entry points, especially on high beta stocks with a lot of price swing.

Yes, it's rather basic, but it's the easiest tool i've found for tracking this specific info. If there is another big crash within the next few years i will be using it to position some of my high beta, high growth potential picks.

For instance MWA hit a low vs the S/P March 9th 09, then hit the same spot on June 8th. And it looks like it may do so again in the next (theoretical) down.
   Now i believe water is a great long term investment, and that a company the size of MWA has both enough size to dominate smaller competitors, and large enough to compete with the larger competitors. Yet it's small enough to have huge growth in the future.
   The chart shows that it has fluctuated as much as 60%-100% above the S/P in the last few months, and it's near unanimous 528/10 All-Star outperform is a fairly good indicator that it's not junk. 

According to this technique, which allows me to easily find and then set the LOWEST point that a stock has seen vs the S/P WNR hit it's lowest point on May 15th 08, then again on 8/5/08, then AGAIN on 10/24/08. Each time it rebounded for between 60% and 140%.  And it now sits at only 7% above its low comparison to benchmark. 

There's my call folks. I think WNR is a great buy NOW and will not likely fall more than 7-10% before rocketing to a 50%-150% within the next two years. By the way, it is GMX's pick for AllStarPortfolio.

Now, i'm no rocket scientist, but armed with caps, GMX and AllStarPortfolio, i think now is a buy for WNR. 

This is my first strong buy call in my caps career.

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 18, 2009 at 11:40 PM, awallejr (85.52) wrote:

A relevant article:

 

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/local/Oil_refining_shakeout_could_hit_coast_hard.html

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#2) On August 19, 2009 at 2:07 AM, jatt22 (51.38) wrote:

i  like   wnr  bought it  in  real  life  around  8 $  but  i m  gonna  hold  it  cuz  i  m  in  gas  buisness  and  i  know  wth  patience  an   even  littl  recovery this  thing  could   give  u   good reasonable  returns  .  totally  wth  u  on    this  call .  rec  an  good  luck

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#3) On August 19, 2009 at 3:07 AM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

WNR isn't a Gulf coast refiner, then again, Awallejr doesn't understand the concept of relevancy, so I'm not surprised he'd post a red herring. Bash a different stock walle, WNR is going to be on the up and up again, just like last fall.

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#4) On August 19, 2009 at 3:36 AM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

that was too abrupt. Let's do a little geography lesson so misguided Walle can learn rather than just be mocked.

The Gulf Coast is the coastline that surrounds the Gulf of Mexico. This is a body of water that ranges from the eastern shore of Texas past Louisiana out to Florida and the Atlantic Ocean.

The Gulf Coast refineries are located along the Gulf Coast mostly in a stretch between Houston and New Orleans.

---

Western Refining is headquartered in El Paso, Tx, but has its refineries in New Mexico, Arizona, and Virginia. Let's review... the Gulf Coast is in Eastern Texas and Louisiana. Western's refineries are, uh, not remotely close to the Gulf Coast. The article that was "relevant" did not mention WNR nor any other Non-Gulf refiners. WNR's closest refinery to the Gulf is a good 10-hour drive away.

Geography 101, brought to you by GMX.

 

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#5) On August 19, 2009 at 8:39 AM, awallejr (85.52) wrote:

GMX you are a shallow idiot who clearly doesn't understand the term relevant.  Refineries in general will continue to to experience pressure. You want to discuss then discuss as an adult and not like an anonymous fool who wouldn't have the balls to talk like this face to face. You are still a pissant to me.

Oh I forgot, you picked this stock in your allstar pick.  Yeah that one is helping the portfolio tons. 

 

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#6) On August 19, 2009 at 8:39 AM, Option1307 (29.73) wrote:

hahaha, cruel but funny!

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#7) On August 19, 2009 at 8:49 AM, awallejr (85.52) wrote:

And since you are shallow GMX I will just quote and some of the RELEVANT parts (a word I know you don't understand) which are not limited to just geography. 

"The Gulf Coast could be the biggest loser in a shakeout of the U.S. refining business that some analysts and industry executives view as inevitable in coming years as rising costs and weaker demand for petroleum fuels pummel the industry.

The region is especially vulnerable not only because it has more plants than other areas, but because a reduction in refining anywhere would hurt oil and gas companies that support jobs and economic growth in this part of the country.

Yet closing oil refineries may be unavoidable if the industry is to remain profitable in the long term and adjust to what is likely to be a smaller U.S. market for petroleum fuels over time, analysts said."

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#8) On August 19, 2009 at 11:05 AM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

If you understood WNR as a company at all, you'd realize that, oh, we have a near-monopoly on asphalt and diesel supplies to northern Mexico and that we have very little competition in some of our best markets such as Phoenix. This article was written by a Texan journal commenting on the dangers of Gulf refining, look at what you didn't bold.

"The Gulf Coast could be the biggest loser in a shakeout of the U.S. refining business

The region is especially vulnerable not only because it has more plants than other areas, but because a reduction in refining anywhere would hurt oil and gas companies that support jobs and economic growth in this part of the country.

This is a local article that you are trying to make apply to something it doesn't. 

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#9) On August 19, 2009 at 11:17 AM, outoffocus (22.83) wrote:

CAT FIGHT! (raaaawrrr) No scratching below the belt. Just kidding

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#10) On August 19, 2009 at 12:17 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Solaris, I believe that it's definitely a good thing to see that a stock's price has tanked relative to the S&P 500 in a given period of time.  It says that the stock has become much cheaper relative to the S&P 500.  However, using that as the main basis for your decisions is unsound in my opinion.  I'd use something like that as a bonus consideration, not as the main reason.

I think you should concentrate more on learning to see if a stock is undervalued right now relative to stocks in its industry and to the S&P 500.  THAT should be the basis for your buy decision in my opinion.  Just because a stock has tanked recently relative to the S&P 500 does not mean it's undervalued.  It could've gone from extremely overvalued to fairly valued.  You should employ some sort of analysis to determine that the stock is now indeed a bargain.

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#11) On August 19, 2009 at 12:23 PM, 4everlost (29.35) wrote:

I gave this rec #13 for the cat fight and content...=-)

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#12) On August 19, 2009 at 3:04 PM, awallejr (85.52) wrote:

GMX you just tried to pick a fight and nothing more.  If you wanted to discuss the content in a civil manner I would have been more than obliging.  But you simply can't do that.  You take disagreements personally and you typically respond in a childish, denigrating manner.

While the article was local, it referred to macro conditions as well, hence my linking.  You want to look at a company in a vacumn go ahead.

You had a chance to pick ANY ONE stock out there for your Allstar pick and you chose a refinery near its typical seasonal peak (May). Personally I lump pure refineries with airline stocks, I'd never touch them in real life.  But that's me.

 

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#13) On August 19, 2009 at 3:34 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The AllStarPortfolio on msn money is by the way doing great.

 

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#14) On August 19, 2009 at 3:48 PM, SolarisKing (32.26) wrote:

bullishbabo (99.97) wrote:

Solaris,  I'd use something like that as a bonus consideration, not as the main reason.

 

me writes : I will try to be more clear in the future. All i added to the orignal was. . . .

 SolarisKing wrote:but when added to your other research it may help

  bullishbabo (99.97) wrote:

I think you should concentrate more on learning to see if a stock is undervalued right now relative to stocks in its industry and to the S&P 500.  THAT should be the basis for your buy decision in my opinion.  Just because a stock has tanked recently relative to the S&P 500 does not mean it's undervalued.  It could've gone from extremely overvalued to fairly valued.  You should employ some sort of analysis to determine that the stock is now indeed a bargain.

   Me writes: Well sure, i would like to know lots more. Maybe you could tell me where to start? For instance, besides obvious stuff like "water has growth potential", and PE; what's your next things you look for? Start at the bottom.

You probably don't have time to go into it fully, but i'd appreciate any tips. What's your favorite website for studying stocks?  ;-)

PS: anyone who wants to give me advice on WNR, or your favorite valuations when searching for a winner, feel free.
   Including, it would be nice if GMX could cut and paste, or write, a pitch for WNR to one of the blogs. You picked without a pitch before your vacation, and i know you're busy, but it really looks naked without it.

 

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#15) On August 19, 2009 at 5:45 PM, fmahnke (88.95) wrote:

Bought today,  Asphalt

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#16) On August 19, 2009 at 6:11 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Refer to my blog post for ways to increase your knowledge.  If you don't want to read all the books, I'd still say you should read the Graham, Dreman, and O'Shaughnessy books.

I have a question about the MSN portfolio.  How come so much NTE has been bought? I'm not complaining because it's my pick, but I'm curious.

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#17) On August 19, 2009 at 9:59 PM, SolarisKing (32.26) wrote:

The NTE looks like user error (me). I sold it today for a profit of $420.

-solaris

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#18) On August 19, 2009 at 10:08 PM, SolarisKing (32.26) wrote:

I just picked SUNH, a health care company primarily for seniors, using some of the same guidelines (plus looking at other valuations).

I got on the trail of SUNH from Greenwave3.

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#19) On August 19, 2009 at 11:19 PM, topsecret09 (36.37) wrote:

   The stock looks like It will test support at 5.75$.  Book value Is about 9.00$. Don't see a lot of downside at these levels. Company could be a buyout candidate considering that It would take about 1 Billion dollars to build a typical refinery right now. Earnings estimates have been trimmed from 1.63$ to 85 cents for next year. Seems like solid long term play....  TS       

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#20) On August 19, 2009 at 11:55 PM, anoviceinvestor (< 20) wrote:

i put my entire nest egg of 10k in WNR just now. gmx is a top fool and solaris is popular so cuz of that i think i can get it. ive been saving for 2 yrs so this half my income but in this bull bull bull market i think the downside is limited.

thank u gmx and solaris !! i am 23 andmy goal is to have one million by 27!

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#21) On August 20, 2009 at 8:31 AM, SolarisKing (32.26) wrote:

anoviceinvestor (47.87) wrote:i put my entire nest egg of 10k in WNR just now.

Uhm, i hope you check back on this. I have to say, don't  do that. Go RIGHT NOW, and sell two thirds of your WNR postition.

NEVER PUT YOUR WHOLE BUNDLE ON A SINGLE BUY. That's my advice. PERIOD.

If you want, some other good picks, check AllStarPortfolio's account. 

You would rather be in late, than to have missed the bottom and be down 50% for years.

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#22) On August 20, 2009 at 11:29 AM, Bays (30.17) wrote:

Well if the guy wants to make a million before 27 he is not going to do it by diversification.  You have to take risks such as what he is doing.  I would never advise taking that risk just based on what someone else says.  Do your own DD and stop being lazy.

 

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#23) On August 20, 2009 at 3:20 PM, awallejr (85.52) wrote:

I suspect anoviceinvestor is being sarcastic.  And if he isn't, then he may become the poster child for the saying "better to be lucky than good "  because anyone who puts his entire nest in a stock he knows absolutely nothing about off the opinions of a couple anonymous bloggers needs to rely on pure luck.

Use these websites ONLY as starting points into doing your own research. But, alas, you are free to ignore this suggestion.

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#24) On August 20, 2009 at 4:52 PM, SolarisKing (32.26) wrote:

awall, i was also beginning to wonder. . .

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