January 26, 2008
– Comments (4)
Now, I'm going to make a politically incorrect prediction. There will be no recession in 2008.
I predict your recession prediction will be as accurate as your stock picks. However, I might support the idea that the stock market already has the recession priced in. Retail, banks, bond insurers, builders, discretionairy stocks are DOWN!
Billionaire Jim Rogers explains it to the Money Honey on CNBC:
"I predict your recession prediction will be as accurate as your stock picks"
That's about it. I think I have a 70% chance of being right, although, of course, if I'm wrong here, I will be dramatically wrong: any recession, if it comes to pass, will be a severe one.
Well Ebby, didn't know you had a glass half full in ya...LOL You are 100% correct...we are already in a recession and it started last year....it is doubtful that the Greater Depression will start until 2010.
Thanks for the interview link, abit- Very interesting.
I'm having difficulty judging people's overall optimism/pessimism. Short-term traders have been excessively bearish for a while now, as have many news agencies who have been speculating about a recession; so prices may already reflect the recession bet, as you said. But on much longer time scales, perhaps investors are still betting that the recession will only be temporary, and are more optimistic about the U.S. economy? I wonder if there's still room in there for a contrarian to make a longer-term bet against the stock market?