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alstry (35.03)

A "Jobless Recovery" is a LIE!!!!

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September 15, 2009 – Comments (7)

It is mathematically impossible to have a JOBLESS RECOVERY in America today.

70% of our GDP is consumption by the consumer.  Consumers can only consume if they have money.

Consumers have three ways to get money...savings, credit, and jobs/income.

When you are a nation that exports a lot of goods, you can produce more and sell more even if your domestic population doesn't purchase more simply by increasing productivity.

But when you are a nation that almost exclusively sells to its domestic population base....your population must consume in order to grow.  If consumption was based on credit....you must continue to extend credit.....if not, your consumer will NOT beable to consume and the economy will shrink.

As the economy shrinks, even more consumers will not be able to consume as many lose jobs and suffer wage loss.  In such a consumer dependent environment....mathematically the economy will continue to contract further...unless some radical technological innovation comes down the road.

If you continue to cut off credit, raise interest rates, slash wages and fire workers.......savings will be the only place left for consumers to consume until they extinguish savings.  Right now, many are at the end of their rope with available credit and extinguishing savings. 

As a result, unless a dramatic policy change is implemented, WE ARE CERTAIN that the contraction will continue and accellerate as fewer and fewer can spend and more and more are fired and/or suffer massive wage cut.

If the consumer is your market, and you kill your market....you have no market.  And right now, with the current Zombulation policies of cutting off credit, raising interest rates,....and ONLY bailing out the banks....you are guarnteeing the destruction of your market.....and in America's case where that market is leveraged....the destruction of America as we know it.

With the current policy, we could easily shed 75% of our jobs, shut down 75-80 of our shopping centers, close down 80% of our office buildings....and each simply wait for our government check each month.  This is where we are headed under the current Zombulation policies.

America's primary market is its own citizens.  That market was driven primarily by credit over the past ten years.  We started cutting off credit about two years ago....... our market started dying.  When an economy only has primarily one market and that market is dying....pretty soon there is no economy.

We are rapidly heading in that direction as the American consumer runs out of savings, availability to credit, and incomes.......unless jobs start being created.....you know we will continue to deteriorate absent some new technology that we can export to generate revenues.

At no time can you have a jobless recovery in America in 9.09.....especially as you are cutting off credit and savings is running out...

As tax receipts continue to get lower and lower...Obama can only run a multi trillion dollar deficits for so long until he can no longer....at that point......our consumers essentially have nothing.

Again it is not the end of the world...but if we continue with the currrent Zombulation policies and don't purge the debt....it will be the end of America as you know it as cities, counties and states shut down at an ever accellerating rate.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 15, 2009 at 10:08 AM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Every time you read about someone getting fired or suffering wage loss, you will realize that is another piece of our market has been destroyed. 

As it happens to more and more WHILE few are getting hired, our market will mathematically continue to shrink...so will our sales, so will our incomes, so will our tax receipts.

There is no way around it since the consumer is practically our entire market.  In addition, our consumers is a key reason why foreign countries can produce so much.

Killing the American consumer will destroy the world's economies...but none is more vulnerable than ours due to the massive leverage EVERYWHERE that is now defaulting.

The Zombulator will destroy America as you know it....it is happening right before you eyes day after day after day as jobs are lost, wages slashed, savings run dry, and credit dried up......

The next time someone talks about a "jobless recovery"....you know what is really going on as things continually get worse due to Zombulation.

When Geithner or Bernanke or any politician talks about a jobless recovery while bailing out their banker buddies....ask yourself, is that legal?  Is it fair?  Is it just?  Is it economic treason against the citizens of the United States?

Pay close attention....9.09 is just starting, anger is rising and distress becoming widespread.  Things will only deteriorate unless we end Zombulation.

Soon you will understand why Alstry is the screaming blogger...if you don't already.

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#2) On September 15, 2009 at 10:44 AM, oshiri (< 20) wrote:

Hey Al . . . this just in from our friends across the pond . . .

Finacial Times newspaper: Brussels fears budget deficits will be worse than forecast

". . . public debt in the 16-nation euro-zone will soar to 77.7 per cent of GDP this year and 83.8 per cent 2010. Both figures are far higher than the 60 per cent threshold set under EU treaty law for countries aspiring to adopt the euro."

     It's no wonder France wants to drop the use of GDP as an economic indicator, and set-up a "slacker" index that calculates "happiness, long holidays, and a sense of wellbeing." Well, if you have no money and no job, I guess you're on a long holiday. Dunno 'bout your happiness or wellbeing however. 

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#3) On September 15, 2009 at 11:04 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

You make sense..and the problem lies within the system.  We expanded too far, too fast due to loose regulations.  Now, everyone is paying for it, and few got rich.

My girlfriend worked for New Day Financial, a mortgage firm.  They were instructed to sell mortgages up to 125% of the value of the home. When she interviewed for the position, and they told her what their bread and butter was as far as revenue generation, she asked the question, "What happens if the real estate market declines?  Then what?"

That was in 2005 when she felt like this couldn't continue forever, real estate appreciating 20-30% each year was not normal and could not be sustained.  The company brushed off her question, and changed the subject.

Then there were the appraisers that were backing these firms, fraudulently appraising homes higher, all to make a quick buck for them and the mortgage firms.

In the end, they all made tons of money, and now we are all paying for it.  

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#4) On September 15, 2009 at 11:07 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yet the market chug, chug, chugs along...creating yet another bubble...no rhyme or reason for this market to be this high.  I'm not calling for a collapse, but a reality check.

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#5) On September 15, 2009 at 11:16 AM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Alstry I really thought your predictions might hit yesterday.  Obama giving a press conference on the financial crisis.  I kind of expected a bank holiday or something.  Even took a little cash out of the bank, just in case.  See, your "Shouts loud & long" method is actually working a little bit.

But, no bank holiday.  9.09 just keeps tick tick ticking away.

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#6) On September 15, 2009 at 11:40 AM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

HOW CAN THIS BE POSSIBLE???????????????????

 Bernanke says recession 'very likely over'

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the worst recession since the 1930s is probably over. Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but it won't be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 percent, from rising.

The consumer is the economy....and credit drove the consumer.....and credit is down MASSIVELY to all sectors except the Federal Government......and the consumer is running out of savings and incomes are evaporating....how can the recession be over unless we are simply operating a Ponzi Scheme and lying about the numbers???

When your economy is dependent on the domestic consumer....and you are killing the domestic consumer by cutting off credit, raising interest rates, slashing wages, and cutting jobs.....ABSENT A NEW GAME CHANGING TECHNOLOGY, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE RECESSION TO BE OVER UNLESS YOU ARE RUNNING A PONZI SCHEME.

MOAP 9.09

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#7) On September 15, 2009 at 12:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's possible because they say it is.

Isn't that good enough for you?  I'm going all in on the market, its been goign green this whole time.  I don't see an end.  Dow 14,000 here we come!!!!  Make that paper baby!

**please note my sarcasm**

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