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EScroogeJr (< 20)

A stupid book by Schiller

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May 11, 2008 – Comments (6)

Stopping by Barnes & Noble, I noticed a book by Robert Schiller titled "Irrational Exhuberance". So I glanced through the book and was amazed at the stupidity of this renowned economist. The whole book is nothing but a collection of trite cliches reported daily by the media, and shows zero capacity for independent thinking. And Schiller's view on housing are, well, moronic. I think that one of the three must be true: either Schilelr is a lopsided genius of the kind that can handle tenth-rank tensors but cannot quite figure out how to tie their shoelaces, or Schiller did not read his book, or, perhaps, he just needed some extra income and filled his book with the stuff his editor told him would sell best.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 11, 2008 at 1:26 AM, vicpicks (< 20) wrote:

Hi Jr,

I was just reading about "Irrational Exhuberance" at amazon.com, and it actually looks like an interesting book to read, from what I have learned reading the reviews.

I like long, tedious and boring books. :)

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#2) On May 11, 2008 at 5:42 AM, DemonDoug (83.01) wrote:

didn't irrational exuberance come out right at the top of the tech bubble which proceeded to crash hard in the next 2 years?

yeah sounds like someone to completely ignore and toss aside :P

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#3) On May 11, 2008 at 9:30 AM, abitare (37.75) wrote:

Escrooge,

Why write something so foolish? 

Schiller is a genius, no doubt. That is why he is on Bloomberg, CNBC and a professor at Yale. The Case Schiller Index is the one of the best ways to determine the direction of housing.

Here he is in Nov 07:

 

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#4) On May 11, 2008 at 9:35 AM, wm052 (29.56) wrote:

from wikipedia - so Shiller waits 12 years for the title - how timely. 

"Irrational exuberance" is a phrase used by former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan in a speech given at the American Enterprise Institute during the stock market boom of the 1990s. The phrase was interpreted by financial pundits as a typically cryptic warning that the market might be overvalued.

Greenspan's comment was made in December 1996 (emphasis added in excerpt):

“ [...] Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? [...] ”

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#5) On May 11, 2008 at 10:12 AM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

demon,

writing a book to say that the Missisipi ends in the Gulf of Mexico is not something that I would expect from a genius. I knew there was a bubble in 1999 without reading any books. And I found "Irrational Exuberance" extremely shallow. It's the kind of analysis you'd expect from a 10-th grader writing a term paper.

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#6) On May 12, 2008 at 12:24 AM, goldminingXpert (29.47) wrote:

this book is great... don't know why you're bashing it. Seminal analysis of the bubbles in both tech stocks and houses (volumes 1  & 2)

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