bluebare (69.30)

A Surefire Leading Market Indicator?

September 20, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: NIB , YNGFF.PK

I don’t post at TMF very often for one very good reason.  After three years of active investing, I’m still not a very good investor.  Anytime I’ve gone out on a limb to recommend a guaranteed winner here, it’s turned out badly.  So, I tend to be sparse with my comments for your benefit and mine.

I could regale you with dozens of hard luck stories about great stock picks gone wrong, but I’m sure most everyone here has sad tales to tell about the falling knives they caught with their heart.   Nevertheless, I’ve somehow survived head-banging plunges of Chinese small caps, 20% market corrections, and solar and rare earth and Baaken oil stock play collapses with most of my real-life capital intact. 

I think the day before this month's FOMC meeting concludes by deciding to continue intervening in the market because there is no good economic news to be found; Greece, European banks, and a few others are on the ropes; record mutual fund outflows are now on the books, and October is coming up, etc., is a good one to make a humble confession.   After several weeks of selectively selling hard into rallies ending today, I’m now on the sidelines nursing my wounds and waiting for the bottom to drop completely out of this hot air balloon of a market.  For what it’s worth, based on past results, this makes it highly likely that the stock prices will surge dramatically in the very near future.