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A visualization of the American portion of the biggest bubble

Recs

28

July 24, 2011 – Comments (21)

I just saw this site and I found the pictures powerful.

In the US this debt is only about $50k for every man, woman and child, or about $100k for every worker, and this is going into an economy that will be different then the past because of the degree to which the population is aging and the boomers are moving into their retirement years.

It just isn't going to happen that those workers are going to pay that $100k of debt, the pensions and the health care of the aging population and some how raise their own families and save for their own retirement... 

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 24, 2011 at 8:30 PM, FleaBagger (28.14) wrote:

...or at least not without devaluing the debt relative to wages.

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#2) On July 25, 2011 at 12:51 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

What is the point of this?  If you want to criticize fine, but give alternative solutions.  This is what drives me nuts about Alstry, for example.  It is tiresome, just as this thread is too. When you actually start making stock picks I might take you seriously Dwot, but you and I know you are just sitting on your score. Stay in Canada and stop railing on the US without at least giving constructive suggestions. 

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#3) On July 25, 2011 at 11:02 AM, rexlove (99.57) wrote:

100k for every worker does not seem so bad. They could get that from me in income taxes over the next 10 years. Coupled with some inflation - this is very doable. 

What I'd like to see is some plan in place to make this debt a little more mangeable and not skyrocketing at it's current pace. Lets see if the dams and repubs can get together and work something out. 

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#4) On July 25, 2011 at 12:08 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Except it doesn't work that way.  It would if corporations didn't exist and if each person earned the same amount of income as everyone else every year.  Binve and Checklist have posted worthwhile reads.

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#5) On July 25, 2011 at 12:37 PM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

huge rec from me dwot

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#6) On July 25, 2011 at 1:43 PM, Jbay76 (< 20) wrote:

awallejr

Chief, your being a little hard on Dwot. The link is great if only to make people aware of the reality of the situation via visual stimulus.  Providing this awareness doesn't require, nor should it, constructive suggestions.  I personally found the link illuminating and it strengthened my investment thesis.  It doesn't seem like you should need help with this given your Caps score .

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#7) On July 25, 2011 at 5:20 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

I am not being harsh at all.  Alstry pulls this same nonsense too, throw out a link and then spin out something that just is not accurate.  The blog provides an inaccruate awareness because it shows a lack of understanding. I'd rather just direct the author to any one of many Binve blogs on the subject if she was truly interested in the subject instead of just "pulling an Alstry".

And while I heard that "look at your cap score"  argument before, my total points is what counts in the end and it is in the top one percentile, unlike yours.

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#8) On July 25, 2011 at 5:48 PM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

Here's an idea for you awallejr. How about we stop spending money that we don't actually have and when we do spend money, we tell people how we are going to come up with it?

She put up a link showing some pictures representing a stack of money. Show me what isn't accurate. Go ahead show me.

The problem is that the link hits a soft spot for you because it shows just how stupid your viewpoint is on the matter, so you result to talking about scores in a game that nobody takes seriously.

Go pick on a schoolteacher somewhere else.

As far as binve posts go, I actually like them even though he often has an opposite viewpoint. He at least has enough decorum to argue based on the merit of his views and stays away from the "mines bigger than yours" defense.

Crawl back under your rock.

 

 

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#9) On July 25, 2011 at 5:56 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

My last reply here since I am wasting too much time with you again Chris.  It isn't the link, it is the blog commentary.  But you are basically obtuse so we will forever go in circles.  Ciao.

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#10) On July 25, 2011 at 7:00 PM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

In the US this debt is only about $50k for every man, woman and child, or about $100k for every worker, and this is going into an economy that will be different then the past because of the degree to which the population is aging and the boomers are moving into their retirement years.

It just isn't going to happen that those workers are going to pay that $100k of debt, the pensions and the health care of the aging population and some how raise their own families and save for their own retirement... 

Nothing inaccurate above either.

I'm glad your not coming back. Go back to watching your Michael Moore crockumentary and pat yourself on the back on how great of a person you are spending somebody else's money.

 

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#11) On July 26, 2011 at 12:32 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Well you do have a tendency of dragging me back into an argument mainly because you always miss the point.  Each individual person is not obligated to pay a per capita share in a debt ceiling.  I know you don't understand what I just said Chris. Seriously.  I know what I just said  sounds arrogant, but it is not intended to be so.  It is just the plain truth.  You are obtuse. 

So what Dwot did in effect was argue to basically scare people with a false illusion.  And  THAT  is what I challenge.  For years, Alstry and GMX and even DWOT were literally scaring people out of the market.  I challenged them all. 

Alstry capitulated and sold his account.  GMX at least acknowledged his inaccuracies and apologized for his approach and errors.  I don't give Dwot a pass.  I challenge people when I think they are hurting people.  I have no pecuniary interest in any blogs aside from what i own in real life which I disclose.  I have no political agendas. I am not trying to make money off of shilling websites or stocks.  I WANT people to make money. I call it as I see it.  I can be abrasive but if it saves people money then good.

I don't think David from Qatar hurts people because mainly he is a wacko (at least in my opinion).  As for you, since you don't really discuss investments, but rather politics, I give you that "don't hurt people" pass.  But I wasn't talking to you in this thread.  I was talking to #6 with my #7 reply. Instead you decided to just pick a fight.  You ignored Jbay's attempt at a caps comment which I answered.  You can have the last word since I'd rather poke my eyes out with hot irons than try to discuss anything with you.

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#12) On July 26, 2011 at 7:47 AM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

No, the false illusion is that we can continue to spend money that we don't have and everything will be fine. That's what is really hurting people and that's what you support.

I saw Jbay's comment and I also saw you picking on Dwot in post 2.

If you are so afraid of someone even talking about the destruction that your beliefs create you are much better off back under that rock.

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#13) On July 26, 2011 at 5:02 PM, rfaramir (29.33) wrote:

By post 2 awallejr was already tired of the thread ("It is tiresome, just as this thread is too."). He just doesn't have much stamina, it seems.

He's not all bad. He has a point here: "Each individual person is not obligated to pay a per capita share in a debt ceiling." Income and wealth are not evenly distributed, so someone of low income will actually have to pay noticably less than his evenly divided share, and so should rationally be a bit less scared. Everyone with more than average wealth, on the other hand, ought be more scared, especially since they only have the same vote as the poorer, but have more to be taken away; i.e., they are a target.

He misinterpreted JBay76's *compliment* on his score: "It doesn't seem like you should need help with this given your Caps score." He meant, "hey, your score is pretty high, you should be able to understand this stuff!" A compliment wrapped in a mild criticism.

And, if his standard really is "don't hurt people", there's definitely hope for him. That's the basis of libertarianism: the Zero Aggression Principle (ZAP). It's also the Silver Rule: "Don't do unto others what you would not want them to do to you." In the same vein as the Golden Rule of Christ, but less lofty and less difficult, and therefore more moral to require of others (hold yourself to the Golden Rule, if you are so inspired, require at least the Silver Rule of others).

But he needs to learn a bit about the State. Taxation is theft, as it is non-voluntary taking of property, and therefore does harm, always. Inflation through printing is theft of purchasing power. Fractional Reserve Banking is fraud, as it makes multiple claims to the same deposit (hoping they aren't called on it, as in a bank run). Central Banking enables the fraud of FRB by cartelizing the banks to prevent runs (the free market solution to such fraud).

Note these are all economic effects, not pure politics. Hopefully that makes them relevant to us investors.

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#14) On July 26, 2011 at 6:25 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

He misinterpreted JBay76's *compliment* on his score: "It doesn't seem like you should need help with this given your Caps score." He meant, "hey, your score is pretty high, you should be able to understand this stuff!" A compliment wrapped in a mild criticism

If that was the case then my apologies to Jbay by throwing scores back at him.  People know I don't hold caps scores against someone's point of view.

And rfaramir, I have no problem with your commentary.  You present an argument for consideration.  I just am not convinced that a true litertarian society could ever exist.  Most of my life has been devoted to helping people.  But I have seen some pretty ugly sides of people and knowing they exist will simply prevent such a utopia from ever functioning in my opinion.

K going back to watching my GEICO commercial.

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#15) On July 26, 2011 at 8:20 PM, rfaramir (29.33) wrote:

I don't need to have a fully anarchic (no rulers, not necessarily no rules) society today. I'll work today with people who just want to slow the growth of government (Rs), tomorrow with those who want to actually shrink it (small-government types), then with those who want to bring it back all the way to within the confines stipulated by the Constitution (constitutionalists), then work to fix the inherent big-government parts of the Constitution (by amendment or replacement) with minarchist libertarians. Then, maybe, people will be so wealthy and happy with a minimal State, and so confident in the ability of the truly free market to provide even arbitration and security services (the only ones left under minarchism) that we will abolish the State altogether.

I don't have to have it all now. I'm just clear on the desired endpoint, and why it is good. Happy to discuss it, too.

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#16) On July 27, 2011 at 12:39 AM, FleaBagger (28.14) wrote:

A lot of anger and frustration from awallejr! I would just like to say that requiring payment from awallejr for what awallesr bought is immoral, and that is what I oppose.

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#17) On July 27, 2011 at 12:58 AM, dwot (45.74) wrote:

Thanks Chris.  I have asked awallejr to stay off my blog but he obviously likes to hang around where he isn't welcomed and just dump his garbage all over here.  I see the debt as a huge problem.

rexlove, back in 84 Canada had about double the debt level per person then the US and that was about $20k.  That is when Canada elected our best Prime Minister ever and he did nothing but talk about our need to control our debt and set Canada on a course to do that.  It also meant that the economy was very hard for younger Canadians as taxes went up and the hit to disposible income was huge.  It isn't just paying down the debt that is a problem.  What is huge is spending far exceeds receipts and the first 10 years of attacking our so called debt was actually just trying to get income to match expenses.  There is huge hits throughout the economy going through this process, and the debt still grows rapidly.  Maybe I have my years a wee bit wrong.  Our debt peaked at $600 billion, but more then half the debt was added after spending started to be reined in and taxes went up.  I know when Mulroney was elected, without counting debt servicing expenses, exceeded tax revenue by 40 billion.  Add the debt servicing costs and we were going into debt much faster then just the 40 billion per year.  And like I said, it took 10 years to turn that around.

Jbay76, I am glad the link helped to strengthen your investment strategy.

rfaramir, the argument that what each individual pays is weighted, is all the more reason for those more likely to be reading caps blogs to be more concerned.  My husband made good money, but not good enough to justify the 54.9% tax bracket he was in.  We paid our share of the debt every 14-16 months.  I have a friend who bought a vacation property about 20 years ago.  His annual tax bill is now 10% of the purchase price and he gets zero services for that, no garbage pick up, no tie into the city water, no road to the property, absolutely nothing.  The taxes for it are the same as his house taxes.  It isn't just through income that taxes are weighted, it is also through assets held.

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#18) On July 27, 2011 at 1:46 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Well since you want to draw swords Dwot instead of letting this thread die like it should have, look in the mirror.  While you may have been right at one time, for years after you and others kept writing inaccurate blogs trying to simply scare people from the market.  We had one of the greatest bull runs in history going, yet there was you and others saying this is going to crash, and that is going crash, and you read an article here and an article there why the US will collapse, only to be proven wrong over and over again in the end.

You hurt people.  That is why I respond.  You hurt people because you blow things out of proportion, or you don't truly understand a subject yet twist it in a negative way.  You have been doing that for years.  Just like Alstry.  And you did that here.  Read Binve's blogs on the subject if you really want to understand the topic and not just do juvenile arithmetic by dividing the national debt of a country by its population and then say there everyone that is what each of you have to pay back.

And if you don't like people criticizing you, don't post.

Sorry rfaramir you almost turned this thread into something worthwhile with reply #15, perhaps another time.

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#19) On July 27, 2011 at 7:34 AM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

Talk about a redistribution of wealth!

awallejr thinks he owns dwot's thread now.

Wow! You are some piece of work.

 

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#20) On July 27, 2011 at 11:13 AM, dwot (45.74) wrote:

awallejr has always thought he owned my post and has the right to make decsions for me and that I have some kind of obligation to do as he bids, that I have no right to have other priorities in life.  Look up control freak to see his picture.  

He also seems to think the stock market is the only investment game in town.  When I started on here I was under employed and I was looking at investments in depth.  I am not under employed anymore, and my home investment has kept me busy given it is a 3000 sq ft home and I put in a basement suite and there isn't a wall that hasn't been covered with fresh paint and where I live arranging for work you can't do yourself is no easy matter.  Right now as market rents go I could leave the community and rent both suites and generate over $2000 per month in rental income.  As it is, I'm renting one suite and I am not dissatisfied with my investment or career choices.

And then the other thing, I am Canadian.  The US dollar has lost about 37% of its buying power since that so called bottom.  In US dollars I am up about 50% with my relatively passive position.  I am not at all dissatisfied with my choices.  Oh, and short term I was wrong about the US dollar, as I expressed my confusion.  But longer term, the US dollar has tanked.

The current levels of debt leave me uncomfortable with the market and high levels of debt stifle growth and make economies sluggish.  I also don't see how things can go on as they have with an aging population.  

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#21) On July 27, 2011 at 6:34 PM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

dwot

I don't see how I am a control freak.  I don't stop anyone from posting.  I might be a "need to have the last word" freak.  Guilty there.  But please understand Dwot I am sure you are a decent human being in real life.  But Dwot the Avatar is what I challenge at times.  I suspect if you go through all your posts I haven't been in a ton of them railing at you.

This stems from the bottom in '09 (one called by Doug Kass and not Jim Cramer who now tries to take the credit).  The bears were rampaging, and you were one of them.  A few of us bulls were trying to say hey time to buy, people like myself, Checklist34, Porte, Rof, Andreylikesmtl.  We got trashed.

My score so sucked (mainly because I kept jumping in and out of the same stocks since I didn't understand the accuracy calculation) but I stuck with the account and climbed my way up.  But people like Alstry and GMX banged that score over my head.  Time and time again. It is not the same today.

But I held to my guns and continued to challenge misleading doomsayers which I submit did keep scaring people from going back in. I was urging MLPS, which I still do, like PVR, LINE, EVEP, MMLP, all single digit or low teens giving 20%+ distribution yields.  A generational opportunity (which I said before Cramer and could find a link if forced to.

Since that bottom I think I have given some pretty darn good investment advice.  So when I see blogs like this, which I still challenge, though please always factor in the time I type.  The later it is in the night the greater the chance it is the scotch doing the typing.

Frankly your post #20 above is one I don't have issue with. You present a point and a conclusion that isn't misleading.  I disagree with your conclusions since I think the market is fairly priced if not on the low side.  What is spooking the market is as I said would here http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/summer-rally-hoo-ha/609966

It is mindboggling that Washington DC is actually making the NYS legislature look professional.

Well enough.  Accept this blog as telling Dwot the person don't take things personally when I challenge Dwot the Avatar.  And understand my sole motivation when I blog is either to counter things I think are misleading or trying to encourage people to invest.  I want people to make money in the end.

 

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