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portefeuille (98.82)




January 23, 2013 – Comments (17)

I think it might be a good idea to buy a few AAPL shares now. It is at ≈ $464 ...

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 23, 2013 at 5:37 PM, Valyooo (37.62) wrote:

No way is the selling over..I would start buying at $430 but mutual funds are gonna have to start unloading

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#2) On January 23, 2013 at 5:42 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

It was at ≈ $460 when I sent this message (testing how embedding works) ...

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#3) On January 23, 2013 at 6:12 PM, L0RDZ (91.62) wrote:

All  I gots  to say  is  timber  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

run away from the falling trees full of apples...


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#4) On January 23, 2013 at 7:32 PM, awallejr (36.58) wrote:

Well the stock does have a real bottom which is around $137 (the amount of cash it is sitting on).  I am starting to eye this now as a real investment.  Wouldn't surprise me if it does fall lower.

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#5) On January 23, 2013 at 7:43 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

As usual my player portefeuille2 made the better call. outperform call open since AAPL was at $87.49 (dividend adjusted). yeay.

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#6) On January 23, 2013 at 7:48 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#5 also see comment #101 to my first post :) 

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#7) On January 23, 2013 at 7:51 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#6 correction.

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#8) On January 24, 2013 at 9:08 AM, elcid24 (59.34) wrote:

Big tech seems to be pretty cheap, as a whole.


I'll just stick with VGT.  It feels a lot "safer."

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#9) On January 24, 2013 at 11:25 AM, Schmacko (92.51) wrote:

AAPL has technical support @ $350.  It would also yield 3% at that level and I think value investors would swoop in.  If AAPL doesn't start doing innovative stuff again the transformation from a growth stock to a value stock will continue. 

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#10) On January 24, 2013 at 1:29 PM, JaysRage (75.79) wrote:

It could get cheaper, but $450 is cheap enough for me.   I like it at $450 right now as much as I liked it at $375 earlier.    The bad news wasn't very bad, in my opinion.   I value it at $650, same as I did before the earnings announcement.   Roughly 50% above current levels.  Plenty cheap enough for me.   If it drops more, I'll add more.   

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#11) On January 24, 2013 at 2:01 PM, TheDumbMoney (81.95) wrote:

I am with Valyooo, I think a drop to $430 is EXTREMELY likely, and maybe farther, given technicals and sentiment generally.  I'd be happy buying it at anwhere between about $0 and $570, so if it goes back up to $520, fine, and if it goes down to $400, fine. 

On the emotion curve, this one is only part of the way down the slope.  We have hit denial, but not yet despondency or depression, let alone capitulation, let along optimism.

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#12) On January 24, 2013 at 2:09 PM, JaysRage (75.79) wrote:

10% is a key mark.   A lot of retail investors set their stop limits at 10% for all their stocks.   A lot of retail investors own Apple.   A lot of retail investors just dropped Apple today.   My for them.   Could it drop lower?  Sure, why not?  Could this be the bottom?  Sure.  Why not?  

I'm better at tops than bottoms.   If some of you guys have a feel for finding the bottoms of a stock and want to try and hit the absolute bottom, I say more power to you.  

The "Apple is done" commentary is the kind of far-fetched nonesense that you hear when a stock is under-valued, however.   

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#13) On January 24, 2013 at 4:11 PM, Tagit (< 20) wrote:

     -$400, then it might be a good idea.

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#14) On January 24, 2013 at 9:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:

I bought a starter position of 2 shares today. :) I'll certainly consider adding more if it drops towards $400.

I'm just happy to own a stock outside of the resource sector.  :P

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#15) On January 24, 2013 at 10:01 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

This sucker is going down until they use the $100+ billion in accululated earnerings to resurrect Steve Jobs, lol.


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#16) On January 25, 2013 at 12:30 PM, TheDumbMoney (81.95) wrote:


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#17) On January 27, 2013 at 9:12 AM, AnsgarJohn (98.63) wrote:

Catch the right falling knifes. Determine a quantitative valuation methodology and buy when the stock falls under it. In this case $1100 is a realistic intrinsic value for Apple (Peter Lynch value)

: Seth Klarman has written extensively on the problem of "catching a falling knife" in investing...i.e value investors tend to buy early. But in the end, we have to stick by two truths: 1) None of us can consistently call the bottom 2) Buying a dollar for 50 cent as opposed to buying a dollar at 30 cents, is still better than buying a dollar for 90 cents. If we come from a position of strength (with cash and with capital that will not flee at every rocking of the boat), and practice the tenets of value investing, we should come out on top.

"Most investments - illiquid private transactions, but also publicly traded stocks and bonds - are like roach motels, easier to get into that out of. When you make an investment you give up liquidity and valuation certainty of holding cash. You do so, presumably, to earn a higher return while accepting the risks of diminished liquidity, price volatility, and fundamental value impairment. To be successful, you must maintain the thought process articulated by Graham. When a seemingly attractive investment suddenly retreats in market price in the absence of adverse fundamental development, you must have the psychological makeup t see it as more, not less attractive. If you have either investment constraints or flighty capital which makes it impossible for you to favor an investment more after its price falls, then you shouldn't be investing at all."

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