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Adjusted Unemployment



September 09, 2010 – Comments (3)

There is so much misinformation reported by our gov't departments, it's hard to know what is really happening outside of your own personal sphere.

For example, on 9/2/2010 the Labor Dept reported that unemployment claims DROPPED by 6,000 to 472,000 beating economists estimates of 475,000.  This week, they dropped by 27,000 to 451,000.  Doing simple math you realize that they revised the 472,000 number up to 478,000 - meaning that on September 2, the report didn't beat estimates, but missed.

What confidence does anyone have in these numbers?

According to the Labor Dept the number of unadjusted claims was 376,558.  Give them credit for realizing that in the last week of summer you need to revise the number higher, so they appear to have added 74,000 to the unadjusted number. 

But lets look a bit closer - this weeks number included the loss of Federal Census workers and the total of Federal Employees seeking unemployment was 4,720 PLUS another 2,648 newly discharged veterans.  That amounts to 7,368 (remember this number).

Now, when you go back one week, the number of total of Federal Employees seeking unemployment was 25,031 and an additional 40,830 newly discharged veterans.  Therefore, last week the official number of 472,000 (revised up to 478,000) included 65,861 federal employees in the equation.

So, what you really need to know about unemployment is that with this weeks adjusted number dropped by 27,000 but DID NOT INCLUDE 58,223 (65,861 - 7,368) Federal Workers that existed in the previous week.

What does THAT tell you about the number of PRIVATE SECTOR jobs added this week? If that many Federal Workers were added to the unemployment rolls we would have broken 500,000 claims with ease this week.

The worst part is that in an age of instant information, the gov't statistics are obfuscated in ways that make the common man/woman work too hard to see the truth.  Our gov't is a giant tool of the party in power, far from the hopes of "Of the people and for the people".

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 09, 2010 at 10:32 AM, Dow3000 (< 20) wrote:

I find it so sickening that the feds have resorted to lying about every single thing they do.  At least previous admins only lied about some things.  I'm not sure anyone is buying it anymore though...that is really a good sign that ppl are waking up.  After a HFT burst in the futures...we appear to be selling off.  With equity withrawals every week at this point...the computers can only trade it up for so long.  The longer this charade lasts, the worse the crash and after effects.

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#2) On September 09, 2010 at 2:19 PM, leohaas (30.08) wrote:

You are misrepresenting the numbers by liberally taking them from different tables. What you quote as "the number of total of Federal Employees seeking unemployment was 25,031 and an additional 40,830 newly discharged veterans" is actually the "PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)"; in other words: total number of folks in the program, not newly added last week. For a fair comparison, you'd need the number from the table labeled "INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)", from which you got the lower numbers. However, you will need to wait until next week to get the numbers for last week since they lag an extra week.

For those of you interested in doing their own manipulation, click here to obtain the numbers.

PS. Can we get this Dow3000 guy banned for spreading total and utter cr@p?

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#3) On September 16, 2010 at 9:28 AM, leohaas (30.08) wrote:

OK, it is a week later, and the current numbers from the "INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)" table for the week ending September 4th are available: 4,912 for Federal Employees and 4,226 for Newly Discharged Veterans. These are the numbers you should have waited for, and used in your logic.

By the way: why have you not yet recognized you were wrong on this issue? Are we ever gonna see a retraction? If you decide to write a mea culpa, please use boldface and ALL CAPS as liberally as you did in your original discredited blog.

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