After Midnight
October 05, 2011
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"The darkest hour is just before the dawn." Proverb
For the past twelve years, I have been outright negative about the economy and equity markets. Recently though, at long last, I have started to feel optimistic.
Last month I hinted at my developing optimism. A month later I am not all the way there yet mind you, but I can see the blue sky starting to form on the horizon.
Today, I want to cover four specific reasons that I am feeling better, and one incredible opportunity that is just developing.
But first, a public service announcement.
Pessimism Is a Contrary Indicator
Much as extreme optimism is an indicator that things really are not as good as they seem, extreme pessimism is an indicator that things really are better than they seem.
Today, pessimism is an overarching theme throughout not only the stock and bond markets, but also society in general. While I would not argue that there are no legitimate reasons to feel pessimistic given the recent financial and social history of the world, it seems to me that the dark emotion is overstating reality at this point.
Where were the pessimists from 2002-2006 when we were creating our current financial mess? Well, back then, most people were smiling optimists enjoying their good fortune. Today, many of those same people are angry and anxious over today's seeming poor circumstance. It is too much, too late. It is time to look to the future.
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